Weighted Averages, Death Rates and Time Series

1968 ◽  
pp. 239-260
Author(s):  
H. Mulholland ◽  
C. R. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Weighted Averages

WEIGHTED AVERAGES, DEATH RATES AND TIME SERIES

1968 ◽  
pp. 239-260
Author(s):  
H. MULHOLLAND ◽  
C.R. JONES
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Weighted Averages

scholarly journals Savaris et al (2021) erroneously interpreted their regressions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Góes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Short Note ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Specific Time ◽  
Weighted Averages ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
Do So ◽  
At Home

Savaris et al. (2021) aim at "verifying if staying at home had an impact on mortality rates." This short note shows that the methodology they have applied in their paper does not allow them to do so. An estimated coefficient β≈0 does not imply that there is no association between the variables in either country. Rather, their pairwise difference regressions are computing coefficients that are weighted-averages of region-specific time series regressions, such that it is possible that the association is significant in both regions but their weighted-averages is close to zero. Therefore, the results do not back up the conclusions of the paper.

Time-Series Analysis of Suicidal and Undetermined Deaths

1997 ◽  
Vol 85 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1242-1242 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Fair Proportion ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Over Time

The suicide rate and the death rate for undetermined causes were negatively associated over time from 1968 to 1990 in the USA, suggesting that these undetermined deaths may include a fair proportion of suicides. In contrast, there was no association between suicide and undetermined death rates over the states in 1980.

scholarly journals Trend of fall-related mortality among the elderly

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yara Cristina Martins Monteiro ◽  
Maria Aparecida da Silva Vieira ◽  
Priscila Valverde de Oliveira Vitorino ◽  
Silvio José de Queiroz ◽  
Gabriela Moreira Policena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information System ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Temporal Trend ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Variation Rate ◽  
Related Mortality

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of fall-related mortality in elderly in Brazil from 2008 to 2016. Method: Study of time series of rates of fall-related mortality according to CID-10 from 2008 to 2016. Data from the Mortality Information System on death registers of people ≥ 60 living in Brazil were used. The specific rates of fall-related mortality among the elderly were calculated through the ratio between the number of deaths and the elderly population of that year and region. The populational information was obtained from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. The variation rate and temporal trend were obtained through linear regression (p < 0.05). Results: The fall-related deaths among the elderly aged ≥ 60 amounted to 72,234 (31.2%). Falls from the same level were the most frequent (53.8%) and death rates in all ages ranged from 29.7 to 44.7 per 100,000 elders. Fall-related deaths increased with age. Conclusion: There was a growing trend of fall-related deaths among elderly in all age groups, an event which is avoidable through the adoption of preventive measures. The high rates and growing trend of fall-related deaths, as well as the aging of the Brazilian population, suggest that public policies for protecting the elderly must be prioritized.

scholarly journals Impact of an Antimicrobial Stewardship Program on the Incidence of Carbapenem Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Antibiotics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 586
Author(s):  
Teresa López-Viñau ◽  
Germán Peñalva ◽  
Lucrecia García-Martínez ◽  
Juan José Castón ◽  
Montserrat Muñoz-Rosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Antimicrobial Stewardship ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Gram Negative ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant ◽  
The Impact

Carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacilli (CR-GNB) are a critical public health threat, and carbapenem use contributes to their spread. Antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) have proven successful in reducing antimicrobial use. However, evidence on the impact of carbapenem resistance remains unclear. We evaluated the impact of a multifaceted ASP on carbapenem use and incidence of CR-GNB in a high-endemic hospital. An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted one year before and two years after starting the ASP to assess carbapenem consumption, CR-GNB incidence, death rates of sentinel events, and other variables potentially related to CR-GNB incidence. An intense reduction in carbapenem consumption occurred after starting the intervention and was sustained two years later (relative effect −83.51%; 95% CI −87.23 to −79.79). The incidence density of CR-GNB decreased by −0.915 cases per 1000 occupied bed days (95% CI −1.743 to −0.087). This effect was especially marked in CR-Klebsiella pneumoniae and CR-Escherichia coli, reversing the pre-intervention upward trend and leading to a relative reduction of −91.15% (95% CI −105.53 to −76.76) and −89.93% (95% CI −107.03 to −72.83), respectively, two years after starting the program. Death rates did not change. This ASP contributed to decreasing CR-GNB incidence through a sustained reduction in antibiotic use without increasing mortality rates.

scholarly journals Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries

BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazrul Islam ◽  
Vladimir M Shkolnikov ◽  
Rolando J Acosta ◽  
Ilya Klimkin ◽  
Ichiro Kawachi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
High Income ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Age And Sex ◽  
Excess Deaths

Abstract Objective To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. Design Time series study of high income countries. Setting Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. Participants Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Interventions Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. Main outcome measures Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. Results An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (−2500, −2900 to −2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. Conclusion Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.

scholarly journals Swedish nationwide time series analysis of influenza and suicide deaths from 1910 to 1978

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. e049302
Author(s):  
Christian Rück ◽  
David Mataix-Cols ◽  
Kinda Malki ◽  
Mats Adler ◽  
Oskar Flygare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Relationship Of

ObjectivesThere is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic will be associated with an increase in suicides, but evidence supporting a link between pandemics and suicide is limited. Using data from the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, we aimed to investigate whether an association exists between influenza deaths and suicide deaths.DesignTime series analysis.SettingSweden.ParticipantsDeaths from influenza and suicides extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Sweden for 1910–1978, covering three pandemics (the Spanish influenza, the Asian influenza and the Hong Kong influenza).Main outcome measuresAnnual suicide rates in Sweden among the whole population, men and women. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models was implemented to explore if there is a short-term and/or long-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates with suicide rates during 1910–1978.ResultsBetween 1910 and 1978, there was no evidence of either short-term or long-term significant associations between influenza death rates and changes in suicides (β coefficients of 0.00002, p=0.931 and β=0.00103, p=0.764 for short-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates, respectively, with suicide rates, and β=−0.0002, p=0.998 and β=0.00211, p=0.962 for long-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates, respectively, with suicide rates). The same pattern emerged in separate analyses for men and women.ConclusionsWe found no evidence of short-term or long-term association between influenza death rates and suicide death rates across three 20th century pandemics.

scholarly journals Zinc sufficiency status and covid-19 mortality in socially similar european populations – an epidemiological time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samer Singh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Adverse Event ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Severe Illness ◽  
P Value ◽  
Controlled Trials ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
European Populations

ABSTRACTThe effect of Zinc (Zn) sufficiency/supplementation of the populations on the occurrence of COVID-19 and associated severe illness/mortality remains unknown. Worldwide, general recommendations for Zn sufficiency and immune-boosting for COVID-19 are in place. A time-series association study was conducted on 23 different Zn sufficiency level but socially similar European populations/countries (Population: 522.47million; experiencing up to >150 fold difference in death rates) with supposedly similar confounders and stage of the pandemic, covering the period from pre-peak-of-infections to post-peak-of-infections till flattening of the 1st wave of infections (12 March to 26 June). Comparison of these populations, consistently displayed a strong and significant correlation/covariation of populations’ Zn sufficiency/supplementation status with the COVID-19 mortality [Pearson’s r(23): 0.7893–0.6849, p-value<0.0003] and cases per million [r(23):0.8084 to 0.5658; p-value<0.005], without requiring adjustments or extra exclusion/inclusion criterion being applied elsewhere, e.g., age, age distribution, comorbidities, sex, urbanization. Among the analyzed countries, elevated 9X mortality risk was observed for populations with >92.5 % Zn sufficiency levels at all times as compared to populations with lower Zn sufficiency. The presence of a small percentage of adults/elderly with conditions/comorbidities in the populations susceptible to higher Zn intake/supplementation related pathologies (Prasad et al., JAMA.1978; 240(20):2166-2168) could be suspected for the paradoxical observation. Controlled trials or retrospective analysis of the adverse event patients’ data seem warranted for ascertaining the basis of the observation in uncertain terms for allowing the harnessing of the full protective potential of the Zn supplementation for populations.

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