Introduction—The Evolution of Deterrence Strategy and Research
AbstractThe concept of deterrence has dominated Western strategic thought for some seven decades. It shows no signs of easing its grip. In the face of any new security threat, such as terrorism or cyber-attacks, one of the first questions to be asked is ‘can this be deterred?’ Even when the answer is not very encouraging the inclination is to persevere until some way is found at least to reduce if not remove the threat through some form of deterrence. This may have less to do with deterrence’s reliability or effectiveness as a strategy and more because of its inherent normative appeal. When a state adopts a deterrence strategy it signals that it does not seek a fight but still considers some interests to be so vital that they are worth fighting for. It implies a defensive intent without weakness. It seeks to prevent aggression while being non-aggressive. It sustains rather than disrupts the status quo. For these reasons, it has positive associations that other potential strategies lack. Appeasement as a deliberate strategy has been discredited since the 1930s; conquering other states is now seen to be as demanding as it is illegal. There is no dishonour in deterrence.