Impact on ozone of high-speed stratospheric aircraft: effects of the emission scenario

1994 ◽  
Vol 12 (10/11) ◽  
pp. 996-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Pitari ◽  
S. Palermi ◽  
G. Visconti
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Nitric Oxides ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Odd Nitrogen ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Emission Index

Abstract. A photochemical-transport two-dimensional model has been used to assess the impact of a projected fleet of high-speed stratospheric aircraft using different emissions scenarios. It is shown that the presence in the background atmosphere of nitric acid trihydrate aerosols is responsible for a lower stratospheric denoxification in addition to that caused by the sulfate aerosol layer. This has the effect of further decreasing the relative role of the odd nitrogen catalytic cycle for ozone destruction, so that the lower stratosphere is primarily controlled by chlorine species. The effect of aircraft injection of nitric oxides is that of decreasing the level of ClO, so that the lower stratospheric ozone (below about 20-25 km altitude) increases. The net effect on global ozone is that of a small increase even at Mach 2.4, and is enhanced by adopting emission scenarios including altitude restriction at 15 or 18 km. Reductions of the emission index (EI) of nitric oxides below relatively small values (about 15) are shown to reduce the aircraft-induced ozone increase, because of the associated smaller decrease of ClO. This conclusion is no more valid when the emission index is raised at the present values (about 45).

Atmospheric impacts of short-lived chlorinated species over the recent past: a chemistry-climate perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa Bednarz ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Luke Abraham ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
Martyn Chipperfield
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
The Impact

<p>The emissions of most long-lived halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are now decreasing, owing to controls on their production introduced by Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, short-lived halogenated compounds can also have substantial impact on atmospheric chemistry, including stratospheric ozone, particularly if emitted near climatological uplift regions. It has recently become evident that emissions of some chlorinated very short-lived species (VSLSs), such as chloroform (CHCl<sub>3</sub>) and dichloromethane (CH<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>2</sub>), could be larger than previously believed and increasing, particularly in Asia. While these may exert a significant influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate, their impacts remain poorly characterised. </p><p> </p><p>We address this issue using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (CCM). While not only the first, to our knowledge, model study addressing this problem using a CCM, it is also the first such study employing a whole atmosphere model, thereby simulating the tropospheric Cl-VSLSs emissions and the resulting stratospheric impacts in a fully consistent manner. We use a newly developed Double-Extended Stratospheric-Tropospheric (DEST) chemistry scheme, which includes emissions of all major chlorinated and brominated VSLSs alongside an extended treatment of long-lived ODSs.</p><p> </p><p>We examine the impacts of rising Cl-VSLSs emissions on atmospheric chlorine tracers and ozone, including their long-term trends. We pay particular attention to the role of ‘nudging’, as opposed to the free-running model set up, for the simulated Cl-VSLSs impacts, thereby demostrating the role of atmospheric dynamics in modulating the atmospheric responses to Cl-VSLSs. In addition, we employ novel estimates of Cl-VSLS emissions over the recent past and compare the results with the simulations that prescribe Cl-VSLSs using simple lower boundary conditions. This allows us to demonstrate the impact such choice has on the dominant location and seasonality of the Cl-VSLSs transport into the stratosphere.</p>

scholarly journals Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ since the Little Ice Age controlled by geometry

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2249-2266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Steiger ◽  
Kerim H. Nisancioglu ◽  
Henning Åkesson ◽  
Basile de Fleurian ◽  
Faezeh M. Nick
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Term Response

Abstract. Rapid retreat of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers coincides with regional warming trends, which have broadly been used to explain these rapid changes. However, outlet glaciers within similar climate regimes experience widely contrasting retreat patterns, suggesting that the local fjord geometry could be an important additional factor. To assess the relative role of climate and fjord geometry, we use the retreat history of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, since the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum in 1850 as a baseline for the parameterization of a depth- and width-integrated ice flow model. The impact of fjord geometry is isolated by using a linearly increasing climate forcing since the LIA and testing a range of simplified geometries. We find that the total length of retreat is determined by external factors – such as hydrofracturing, submarine melt and buttressing by sea ice – whereas the retreat pattern is governed by the fjord geometry. Narrow and shallow areas provide pinning points and cause delayed but rapid retreat without additional climate warming, after decades of grounding line stability. We suggest that these geometric pinning points may be used to locate potential sites for moraine formation and to predict the long-term response of the glacier. As a consequence, to assess the impact of climate on the retreat history of a glacier, each system has to be analyzed with knowledge of its historic retreat and the local fjord geometry.

Weathering the Soviet Countryside: The Impact of Climate and Agricultural Policies on Russian Grain Yields, 1958–2010

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolai M. Dronin ◽  
Andrei P. Kirilenko
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
State Level ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Agricultural Policies ◽  
Production Potential ◽  
Russian Agriculture ◽  
Land Privatization ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact

Agriculture in Russia has always had to contend with unfavorable climate. At the same time, large-scale socio-economic experiments have also strained the country’s food production potential throughout the 20th century. The relative role of climate and state agricultural policies in affecting production of cereals was studied for the period of 1958–2010. The study used statistical yield modeling to explain the variations in observed yields with slowly changing progress in technology and management and weather variability. The correlation between the actual and weather-explained yields is moderate to high: measured at the level of the entire country, Pearson’s r is 0.74 and Spearman’s rho is 0.68. Further, we suggest that the residual yield variability can be explained partially with the influence of large-scale changes in agricultural policies at the state level. Between these policies, we consider the following key periods in the history of Russian agriculture: “Virgin Lands” campaign (end of 1950s), Kosygin-Liberman initiatives (late 1960s), Brezhnev’s investment programmes in response of stagnation of agriculture (late 1970s – early 1980s), Gorbachev’s “Perestrojka” (1985–1991), and land privatization and price liberalization (1990s).

scholarly journals Brominated VSLS and their influence on ozone under a changing climate

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (18) ◽  
pp. 11313-11329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanie Falk ◽  
Björn-Martin Sinnhuber ◽  
Gisèle Krysztofiak ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Phoebe Graf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transformations ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Very short-lived substances (VSLS) contribute as source gases significantly to the tropospheric and stratospheric bromine loading. At present, an estimated 25 % of stratospheric bromine is of oceanic origin. In this study, we investigate how climate change may impact the ocean–atmosphere flux of brominated VSLS, their atmospheric transport, and chemical transformations and evaluate how these changes will affect stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Under the assumption of fixed ocean water concentrations and RCP6.0 scenario, we find an increase of the ocean–atmosphere flux of brominated VSLS of about 8–10 % by the end of the 21st century compared to present day. A decrease in the tropospheric mixing ratios of VSLS and an increase in the lower stratosphere are attributed to changes in atmospheric chemistry and transport. Our model simulations reveal that this increase is counteracted by a corresponding reduction of inorganic bromine. Therefore the total amount of bromine from VSLS in the stratosphere will not be changed by an increase in upwelling. Part of the increase of VSLS in the tropical lower stratosphere results from an increase in the corresponding tropopause height. As the depletion of stratospheric ozone due to bromine depends also on the availability of chlorine, we find the impact of bromine on stratospheric ozone at the end of the 21st century reduced compared to present day. Thus, these studies highlight the different factors influencing the role of brominated VSLS in a future climate.

High Speed Liquid Impact Onto Wetted Solid Surfaces

1994 ◽  
Vol 116 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. H. Shi ◽  
J. E. Field ◽  
C. S. J. Pickles
Keyword(s):  
Shock Wave ◽  
Liquid Layer ◽  
Solid Surface ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Shear Failure ◽  
Soda Lime ◽  
Liquid Jet ◽  
Soda Lime Glass ◽  
The Impact

The mechanics of impact by a high-speed liquid jet onto a solid surface covered by a liquid layer is described. After the liquid jet contacts the liquid layer, a shock wave is generated, which moves toward the solid surface. The shock wave is followed by the liquid jet penetrating through the layer. The influence of the liquid layer on the side jetting and stress waves is studied. Damage sites on soda-lime glass, PMMA (polymethylmethacrylate) and aluminium show the role of shear failure and cracking and provide evidence for analyzing the impact pressure on the wetted solids and the spatial pressure distribution. The liquid layer reduces the high edge impact pressures, which occur on dry targets. On wetted targets, the pressure is distributed more uniformly. Despite the cushioning effect of liquid layers, in some cases, a liquid can enhance material damage during impact due to penetration and stressing of surface cracks.

Formation of cavities and microjets in liquids and their role in initiation and growth of explosion

1967 ◽  
Vol 298 (1452) ◽  
pp. 38-50 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Solid Surfaces ◽  
Pressure Waves ◽  
Liquid Explosive ◽  
Rarefaction Waves ◽  
Burning Zone ◽  
Rapid Transition ◽  
High Pressure Zone ◽  
The Impact

The role of discontinuities, such as bubbles of gas and cavities, in the initiation and growth of explosion in liquids has been studied experimentally by means of high speed framing photography. It is shown that micro Munroe jets can be formed at the surface of a gas bubble which has been trapped in the liquid explosive between two impacting surfaces and is being rapidly compressed. As the compression continues these jets are projected at high speed into the gas. Similar jets can be produced between two drops of explosive which are coalescing during impact. These jets may facilitate the initiation of burning both by increasing the impact velocity of the liquid and by dispersing the liquid within a pocket of compressed and heated gas. The reaction grows first as an accelerating burning. The pressure developed in this burning zone has, in the early stages, the effect of closing up and removing any cavities which may exist in the explosive directly ahead of the flame front, so that the reaction advances into a homogeneous zone of liquid that is free from discontinuities. It is not until the comparatively slow burning breaks through the homogeneous high pressure zone, and reaches a zone of liquid containing numerous cavities and bubbles, that the burning is able to transform quickly into a much faster and more violent explosion. The discontinuities are then able to sustain the rapid propagation of explosion. This region of discontinuities can be created in initially homogeneous liquids enclosed between solid surfaces by pressure waves which travel through the confining solids and ahead of the subsonic burning. If these pressure waves increase the distance between the confining surfaces substantially or are converted into rarefaction waves by reflexion, they can produce regions of tension in the unreacted liquid and disrupt it well ahead of the reaction zone. The bubbles of gas or cavities that are formed in this way by the precursor waves create an environment which is conducive to the rapid transition from burning to explosion.

scholarly journals On transient climate change at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (36) ◽  
pp. E7415-E7424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles G. Bardeen ◽  
Rolando R. Garcia ◽  
Owen B. Toon ◽  
Andrew J. Conley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Soot Aerosol ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
High Doses ◽  
Hydrogen Radicals ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

scholarly journals On the Role of Different Age Groups and Pertussis Vaccines During the 2012 Outbreak in Wisconsin

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Goldstein ◽  
Colin J Worby ◽  
Marc Lipsitch
Keyword(s):  
Protective Effect ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Status ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
Status Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background There is limited information on the roles of different age groups in propagating pertussis outbreaks, and on the impact of vaccination on pertussis transmission in the community. Methods The relative roles of different age groups in propagating the 2012 pertussis outbreak in Wisconsin were evaluated using the relative risk (RR) statistic that measures the change in the group’s proportion among all detected cases before vs after the epidemic peak. The impact of vaccination in different age groups against infection (that is potentially different from the protective effect against detectable disease) was evaluated using the odds ratios (ORs), within each age group, for being vaccinated vs undervaccinated before vs after the outbreak’s peak. Results The RR statistic suggests that children aged 13–14 years played the largest relative role during the outbreak’s ascent (with estimates consistent across the 3 regions in Wisconsin that were studied), followed by children aged 7–8, 9–10, and 11–12 years. Young children and older teenagers and adults played more limited relative roles during the outbreak. Results of the vaccination status analysis for the fifth dose of DTaP (for children aged 7–8 years: OR, 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23–0.86; for children aged 9–10 years: OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27–0.95); and for Tdap for children aged 13–14 years (OR, 0.38, 95% CI, 0.16–0.89) are consistent with protective effect against infection. Conclusions While our epidemiological findings for the fifth dose of DTaP and for Tdap are consistent with protective effect against infection, further studies, including those estimating vaccine effectiveness against infection/transmission to others particularly for pertussis vaccines for adolescents, are needed to evaluate the impact of vaccination on the spread of pertussis in the community.

Studying the Impact of Return Current Path on the EM Simulation of High-speed Package Designs

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 (1) ◽  
pp. 000061-000068
Author(s):  
Darryl Kostka ◽  
Antonio Ciccomancini Scogna
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Ground Plane ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Current Path ◽  
Cavity Resonances ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Simulation Time

Three-dimensional electromagnetic simulation models are often simplified in order to reduce the simulation time and memory requirements without sacrificing the accuracy of the results. A commonly adopted methodology in the simulation of electronic package designs is to truncate the size of the package model leaving only a few important features surrounding the nets of interest. In this paper we demonstrate that this simplification can have a significant impact of the simulation results if it is not performed carefully and it can introduce spurious/non physical resonances. The interaction between cavities and signals is first studied using a simple coupled differential via test structure. It is demonstrated that the return currents generated by these vias excite cavity resonances in power-ground plane pairs causing them to behave as parallel-plate waveguides. The role of interplane shorting vias in suppressing cavity resonances is then investigated and the impact of boundary conditions on the simulation results of package models is also shown and discussed. Finally, a realistic complex multilayer package model is analyzed and it is demonstrate that through proper truncation of the geometry, accurate results can be obtained.

Improved characterisation of the impact of chlorinated VSLSs on atmospheric chemistry and climate: past, present and future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa Bednarz ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Luke Abraham ◽  
Martyn Chipperfield
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Emissions

<p>The emissions of most long-lived halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are now decreasing, owing to controls on their production introduced by Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, short-lived halogenated compounds can also have substantial impact on atmospheric chemistry, including stratospheric ozone, particularly if emitted near climatological uplift regions. It has recently become evident that emissions of some chlorinated very short-lived species (VSLSs), such as chloroform (CHCl<sub>3</sub>) and dichloromethane (CH<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>2</sub>), could be larger than previously believed and increasing, particularly in Asia. While these may exert a significant influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate, their impacts remain poorly characterised.</p><p> </p><p>We address this issue using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. We use a newly developed Double-Extended Stratospheric-Tropospheric (DEST) chemistry scheme, which includes emissions of all major chlorinated and brominated VSLSs alongside an extended treatment of long-lived ODSs. Employing novel estimates of Cl-VSLS emissions we show model results regarding the atmospheric impacts of chlorinated VSLSs over the recent past (2000-present), with a focus on stratospheric ozone and HCl trends. Finally, we introduce our plans regarding examining the impacts of chlorinated VSLSs under a range of potential future emissions scenarios; the results of which will be directly relevant for the next WMO/UNEP assessment.</p>

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