Using managerial revenue and cost estimates to value early stage real option investments

The completion of a bridge construction project within budget is one of the project’s key factors of success. This prerequisite is more likely to be achieved if the cost estimates, especially those provided in the early stage of a project, are realistic and close to the actual costs. The paper presents the research results on the development of a cost prediction model based on machine learning, namely the support vector machines (SVM) method, for which the input represents basic information and parameters of bridges, available in the early stage of projects. Several SVM-based regression models were investigated with the use of data collected for a number of bridge construction projects completed in Poland. Having finished the machine learning and testing processes, five of the models, of satisfying knowledge generalization ability and comparable performance, were preselected. The final selection of the best model was based on the comparison and analysis ability to predict bridge construction costs with accuracy appropriate for the early stage of projects. The general testing metrics of the finally selected model, named BCCPMSVR2, were as follows: root mean square error: 1.111; correlation coefficient of real-life bridge construction costs and costs predicted by the model: 0.980; and mean absolute percentage error: 10.94%. The research resulted in the development and introduction of an original model capable of providing early estimates of bridge construction costs with satisfactory accuracy.

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In-Fusion, Inc.

Darden Business Publishing Cases ◽

10.1108/case.darden.2016.000163 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 1-4

Author(s):

Susan Chaplinsky

Keyword(s):

Venture Capital ◽

Cash Flow ◽

Real Option ◽

Early Stage ◽

Technical Note ◽

Option Valuation ◽

Discounted Cash Flow ◽

The Real ◽

Biotech Company ◽

Real Option Method

This case is designed as an introductory exercise to familiarize students with several methods used to value early-stage companies. The value of a young biotech company is compared under the venture capital (VC), discounted cash flow (DCF), and real option methods of valuation. Students are asked to value the firm under the VC and DCF methods and then compare those values to the value obtained under the real option method. It is suggested that the student spreadsheet (UVA-F-1584X) be assigned in advance of the class with instructions to have students value the firm under the VC and DCF methods. A separate worksheet in the file (which can be hidden at the instructor's discretion) provides the option valuation for later discussion purposes. A technical note, “Valuing the Early-Stage Company” (UVA-F-1471), covering the basics of the VC and DCF methods of valuation can be assigned with the case.

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Drivers of the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates in residential construction

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction ◽

10.1108/jfmpc-01-2015-0002 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

pp. 4-20 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Brendon Lim ◽

Madhav P. Nepal ◽

Martin Skitmore ◽

Bo Xiong

Keyword(s):

Construction Projects ◽

Large Scale ◽

Early Stage ◽

Practical Significance ◽

Small Scale ◽

Residential Construction ◽

Specific Information ◽

Cost Estimates ◽

Content Type ◽

Cost Drivers

Purpose – Preliminary cost estimates for construction projects are often the basis of financial feasibility and budgeting decisions in the early stages of planning and for effective project control, monitoring and execution. The purpose of this paper is to identify and better understand the cost drivers and factors that contribute to the accuracy of estimates in residential construction projects from the developers’ perspective. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a literature review to determine the drivers that affect the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the factors influencing the construction costs of residential construction projects. It used cost variance data and other supporting documentation collected from two case study projects in South East Queensland, Australia, along with semi-structured interviews conducted with the practitioners involved. Findings – It is found that many cost drivers or factors of cost uncertainty identified in the literature for large-scale projects are not as apparent and relevant for developers’ small-scale residential construction projects. Specifically, the certainty and completeness of project-specific information, suitability of historical cost data, contingency allowances, methods of estimating and the estimator’s level of experience significantly affect the accuracy of cost estimates. Developers of small-scale residential projects use pre-established and suitably priced bills of quantities as the prime estimating method, which is considered to be the most efficient and accurate method for standard house designs. However, this method needs to be backed with the expertise and experience of the estimator. Originality/value – There is a lack of research on the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the relevance and applicability of cost drivers and factors in the residential construction projects. This research has practical significance for improving the accuracy of such preliminary cost estimates.

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Alterations in the number of motoneurons containing immunoreactive calcitonin gene-related peptide(CGRP)& choline acetyltransferase(ChAT) in the cervical spinal cord of the wobbler mouse during the development of the motoneuron disease

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100141226 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 53 ◽

pp. 970-971

Author(s):

L. Vacca-Galloway ◽

Y.Q. Zhang ◽

P. Bose ◽

S.H. Zhang

Keyword(s):

Spinal Cord ◽

Early Stage ◽

Cervical Spinal Cord ◽

Wild Type Mouse ◽

Reflex Response ◽

Mouse Strains ◽

Behavioral Tests ◽

Wobbler Mouse ◽

Stage 4 ◽

Stage 1

The Wobbler mouse (wr) has been studied as a model for inherited human motoneuron diseases (MNDs). Using behavioral tests for forelimb power, walking, climbing, and the “clasp-like reflex” response, the progress of the MND can be categorized into early (Stage 1, age 21 days) and late (Stage 4, age 3 months) stages. Age-and sex-matched normal phenotype littermates (NFR/wr) were used as controls (Stage 0), as well as mice from two related wild-type mouse strains: NFR/N and a C57BI/6N. Using behavioral tests, we also detected pre-symptomatic Wobblers at postnatal ages 7 and 14 days. The mice were anesthetized and perfusion-fixed for immunocytochemical (ICC) of CGRP and ChAT in the spinal cord (C3 to C5).Using computerized morphomety (Vidas, Zeiss), the numbers of IR-CGRP labelled motoneurons were significantly lower in 14 day old Wobbler specimens compared with the controls (Fig. 1). The same trend was observed at 21 days (Stage 1) and 3 months (Stage 4). The IR-CGRP-containing motoneurons in the Wobbler specimens declined progressively with age.

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Automated high-resolution microscopy: the approaches so far

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100125312 ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 45 ◽

pp. 58-61

Author(s):

W. O. Saxton

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Early Stage ◽

Automatic Recording ◽

Microprocessor Control ◽

Alternative Systems ◽

Electron Image ◽

Complete Automation ◽

Analysis System ◽

High Resolution Microscopy

Recent commercial microscopes with internal microprocessor control of all major functions have already demonstrated some of the benefits anticipated from such systems, such as continuous magnification, rotation-free diffraction and magnification, automatic recording of mutually registered focal series, and fewer control knobs. Complete automation of the focusing, stigmating and alignment of a high resolution microscope, allowing focal series to be recorded at preselected focus values as well, is still imminent rather than accomplished, however; some kind of image pick-up and analysis system, fed with the electron image via a TV camera, is clearly essential for this, but several alternative systems and algorithms are still being explored. This paper reviews the options critically in turn, and stresses the need to consider alignment and focusing at an early stage, and not merely as an optional extension to a basic proposal.

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Direct observation of Fe-Al-Zn ternary intermetallic compound and its transformation during the early stage of hot-dip galvanizing

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100151416 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 51 ◽

pp. 1116-1117

Author(s):

C. S. Lin ◽

W. A. Chiou ◽

M. Meshii

Keyword(s):

Intermetallic Compound ◽

Reaction Rate ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Early Stage ◽

Zinc Bath ◽

Steel Sheets ◽

Direct Observations ◽

Solid Iron ◽

Iron And Zinc ◽

Ternary Intermetallic Compound

The galvannealed steel sheets have received ever increased attention because of their excellent post-painting corrosion resistance and good weldability. However, its powdering and flaking tendency during press forming processes strongly impairs its performance. In order to optimize the properties of galvanneal coatings, it is critical to control the reaction rate between solid iron and molten zinc.In commercial galvannealing line, aluminum is added to zinc bath to retard the diffusion rate between iron and zinc by the formation of a thin layer of Al intermetallic compound on the surface of steel at initial hot-dip galvanizing. However, the form of this compound and its transformation are still speculated. In this paper, we report the direct observations of this compound and its transformation.The specimens were prepared in a hot-dip simulator in which the steel was galvanized in the zinc bath containing 0.14 wt% of Al at a temperature of 480 °C for 5 seconds and was quenched by liquid nitrogen.

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Anisotropy of interfacial defects in the initial stage of MOVPE GaAs growth On Si

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100176095 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 48 (4) ◽

pp. 592-593

Author(s):

C. Vannuffel ◽

C. Schiller ◽

J. P. Chevalier

Keyword(s):

Early Stage ◽

Threading Dislocations ◽

Mbe Growth ◽

Detailed Mechanism ◽

Si Substrates ◽

Initial Stage ◽

Interfacial Defects ◽

Interfacial Dislocations ◽

Step Growth ◽

Essential Problem

Recently, interest has focused on the epitaxy of GaAs on Si as a promising material for electronic applications, potentially for integration of optoelectronic devices on silicon wafers. The essential problem concerns the 4% misfit between the two materials, and this must be accommodated by a network of interfacial dislocations with the lowest number of threading dislocations. It is thus important to understand the detailed mechanism of the formation of this network, in order to eventually reduce the dislocation density at the top of the layers.MOVPE growth is carried out on slightly misoriented, (3.5°) from (001) towards , Si substrates. Here we report on the effect of this misorientation on the interfacial defects, at a very early stage of growth. Only the first stage, of the well-known two step growth process, is thus considered. Previously, we showed that full substrate coverage occured for GaAs thicknesses of 5 nm in contrast to MBE growth, where substantially greater thicknesses are required.

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