scholarly journals Estimation of ambient PM2.5-related mortality burden in China by 2030 under climate and population change scenarios: A modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 156 ◽  
pp. 106733
Author(s):  
Jiayue Xu ◽  
Minghong Yao ◽  
Wenjing Wu ◽  
Xue Qiao ◽  
Hongliang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Modeling Study

scholarly journals Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 124080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masna Rai ◽  
Susanne Breitner ◽  
Kathrin Wolf ◽  
Annette Peters ◽  
Alexandra Schneider ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Related Mortality

Heat-related mortality in Portugal amplified during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro M. Sousa ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
João L. Geirinhas ◽  
Ana Rodrigues ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Amplification Factor ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
High Death ◽  
Very High ◽  
Hot Spells ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Significant Mortality

<p>The warmest July ever in Portugal was observed during 2020, leading to the highest number of total deaths in July months (10430) since consistent records became available in 2009. This record summed up to the very high death toll throughout the year, characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a combined result of these factors, cumulated deaths during 2020 are also the largest in the records available since 2009 (123753), corresponding to an excess of ~12000 deaths (~11% above the baseline). COVID-19 was responsible for the largest fraction of anomalous mortality during the spring months (62% of the excess during March-May) and from autumn onwards (85% of the excess during October-December). However, during the warmer season, the direct impact of the pandemic decreased substantially (as in the rest of Europe) and other causes were the main trigger for the observed excessive mortality (~3500 versus 553 COVID-19 deaths). Prolonged hot spells, occurring between June 21 and August 7, triggered persistent mortality anomalies in the upper tertile (>310 deaths/day) reaching its peak in mid-July (+45% deaths/day). Two other shorter hot spells occurring outside summer months (May and September) also appear to have contributed to significant mortality anomalies.</p><p>July 2020 registered an overall temperature anomaly of +2.6ºC over continental Portugal, and a cumulated anomaly of +127ºC. The lethality rate associated to these cumulated anomalies (+14 deaths per cumulated ºC) was higher than that observed in recent relevant heat-related mortality episodes, even those with higher absolute temperature anomalies, such as in 2013 and 2018. Rates comparable to those observed in 2020 in Portugal are only found far back in tragic heatwaves like those experienced in June 1981 or August 2003. In fact, the 2003 European heatwaves triggered significant changes in public health policies, in order to minimize the mortality burden associated to hot spells, which resulted in lower lethality rates, until 2020. These results are further supported by a statistical model developed to estimate expected deaths due to cold/heat (calibrated for 2009-2019: r=0.84; ME=7%), estimating an amplification of at least 50% in heat-related deaths during 2020 compared to pre-pandemic years. We argue that the significant decrease observed in emergency admissions (ER) and disruption in health-care since the start of the pandemic helps explaining this amplification factor. A ~2/3 decrease in total ERs was observed at the peak of the COVID-19 crisis, never returning to normal pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, in average cases classified as emergent and very urgent in triage remained below 80% of previous reference levels throughout the 2020 summer, particularly the latter.</p><p>The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support  FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL.</p>

scholarly journals Long-term trends in the ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub>- and O<sub>3</sub>-related mortality burdens in the United States under emission reductions from 1990 to 2010

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (20) ◽  
pp. 15003-15016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqiang Zhang ◽  
J. Jason West ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Jia Xing ◽  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Pollutant Concentrations ◽  
Baseline Mortality ◽  
The Us ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract. Concentrations of both fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in the United States (US) have decreased significantly since 1990, mainly because of air quality regulations. Exposure to these air pollutants is associated with premature death. Here we quantify the annual mortality burdens from PM2.5 and O3 in the US from 1990 to 2010, estimate trends and inter-annual variability, and evaluate the contributions to those trends from changes in pollutant concentrations, population, and baseline mortality rates. We use a fine-resolution (36 km) self-consistent 21-year simulation of air pollutant concentrations in the US from 1990 to 2010, a health impact function, and annual county-level population and baseline mortality rate estimates. From 1990 to 2010, the modeled population-weighted annual PM2.5 decreased by 39 %, and summertime (April to September) 1 h average daily maximum O3 decreased by 9 % from 1990 to 2010. The PM2.5-related mortality burden from ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and stroke steadily decreased by 54 % from 123 700 deaths year−1 (95 % confidence interval, 70 800–178 100) in 1990 to 58 600 deaths year−1 (24 900–98 500) in 2010. The PM2.5-related mortality burden would have decreased by only 24 % from 1990 to 2010 if the PM2.5 concentrations had stayed at the 1990 level, due to decreases in baseline mortality rates for major diseases affected by PM2.5. The mortality burden associated with O3 from chronic respiratory disease increased by 13 % from 10 900 deaths year−1 (3700–17 500) in 1990 to 12 300 deaths year−1 (4100–19 800) in 2010, mainly caused by increases in the baseline mortality rates and population, despite decreases in O3 concentration. The O3-related mortality burden would have increased by 55 % from 1990 to 2010 if the O3 concentrations had stayed at the 1990 level. The detrended annual O3 mortality burden has larger inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation of 12 %) than the PM2.5-related burden (4 %), mainly from the inter-annual variation of O3 concentration. We conclude that air quality improvements have significantly decreased the mortality burden, avoiding roughly 35 800 (38 %) PM2.5-related deaths and 4600 (27 %) O3-related deaths in 2010, compared to the case if air quality had stayed at 1990 levels (at 2010 baseline mortality rates and population).

scholarly journals Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Morefield ◽  
Neal Fann ◽  
Anne Grambsch ◽  
William Raich ◽  
Christopher Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Health Risk ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Coupled Modeling ◽  
Related Mortality

Recent assessments have found that a warming climate, with associated increases in extreme heat events, could profoundly affect human health. This paper describes a new modeling and analysis framework, built around the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition (BenMAP), for estimating heat-related mortality as a function of changes in key factors that determine the health impacts of extreme heat. This new framework has the flexibility to integrate these factors within health risk assessments, and to sample across the uncertainties in them, to provide a more comprehensive picture of total health risk from climate-driven increases in extreme heat. We illustrate the framework’s potential with an updated set of projected heat-related mortality estimates for the United States. These projections combine downscaled Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5, using the new Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online (LASSO) tool to select the most relevant downscaled climate realizations for the study, with new population projections from EPA’s Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Results suggest that future changes in climate could cause approximately from 3000 to more than 16,000 heat-related deaths nationally on an annual basis. This work demonstrates that uncertainties associated with both future population and future climate strongly influence projected heat-related mortality. This framework can be used to systematically evaluate the sensitivity of projected future heat-related mortality to the key driving factors and major sources of methodological uncertainty inherent in such calculations, improving the scientific foundations of risk-based assessments of climate change and human health.

scholarly journals Long-term trends in the PM<sub>2.5</sub>- and O<sub>3</sub>-related mortality burdens in the United States under emission reductions from 1990 to 2010

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqiang Zhang ◽  
J. Jason West ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Jia Xing ◽  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Pollutant Concentrations ◽  
Baseline Mortality ◽  
The Us ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract. Concentrations of both fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in the United States (US) have decreased significantly since 1990, mainly because of air quality regulations. These air pollutants are associated with premature death. Here we quantify the annual mortality burdens from PM2.5 and O3 in the US from 1990 to 2010, estimate trends and inter-annual variability, and evaluate the contributions to those trends from changes in pollutant concentrations, population, and baseline mortality rates. We use a fine-resolution (36 km) self-consistent 21-year simulation of air pollutant concentrations in the US from 1990 to 2010, a health impact function, and annual county-level population and baseline mortality rate estimates. From 1990 to 2010, the modeled population-weighted annual PM2.5 decreased by 39 %, and summertime (April to September) 1hr average daily maximum O3 decreased by 9 % from 1990 to 2010. The PM2.5-related mortality burden from ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and stroke, steadily decreased by 53 % from 123,700 deaths yr−1 (95 % confidence interval, 70,800–178,100) in 1990 to 58,600 deaths −1 (24,900–98,500) in 2010. The PM2.5 -related mortality burden would have decreased by only 24 % from 1990 to 2010 if the PM2.5 concentrations had stayed at the 1990 level, due to decreases in baseline mortality rates for major diseases affected by PM2.5. The mortality burden associated with O3 from chronic respiratory disease increased by 13 % from 10,900 deaths −1 (3,700–17,500) in 1990 to 12,300 deaths −1 (4,100–19,800) in 2010, mainly caused by increases in the baseline mortality rates and population, despite decreases in O3 concentration. The O3-related mortality burden would have increased by 55 % from 1990 to 2010 if the O3 concentrations had stayed at the 1990 level. The detrended annual O3 mortality burden has larger inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation of 12 %) than the PM2.5-related burden (4 %), mainly from the inter-annual variation of O3 concentration. We conclude that air quality improvements have significantly decreased the mortality burden, avoiding roughly 35,800 (38 %) PM2.5-related deaths and 4,600 (27 %) O3-related deaths in 2010, compared to the case if air quality had stayed at 1990 levels.

scholarly journals Seasonal variations of temperature-related mortality burden from cardiovascular disease and myocardial infarction in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 224 ◽  
pp. 400-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Maigeng Zhou ◽  
Chun-Quan Ou ◽  
Peng Yin ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Related Mortality

scholarly journals Value-based pricing of a COVID-19 vaccine

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afschin Gandjour
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Short Term ◽  
A Value ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Herd Protection ◽  
Related Mortality

AbstractAimThe purpose of this study is to determine the value-based price of a COVID-19 vaccine from a societal perspective in Germany.MethodsA decision model was constructed using, e.g., information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit (ICU) costs and outcomes, and herd protection threshold. Three strategies were analysed: vaccination (with 95% and 50% efficacy), a mitigation strategy, and no intervention. The base-case time horizon was 5 years. The value of a vaccine included savings from avoiding COVID-19 mitigation measures and health benefits from avoiding COVID-19 related mortality. The value of an additional life year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer reflects a condition with a similar morbidity and mortality burden in the general population in the short term as COVID-19.ResultsA vaccine with a 95% efficacy dominates the mitigation strategy strictly. The value-based price (€1494) is thus determined by the comparison between vaccination and no intervention. This price is particularly sensitive to the probability of ICU admission and the herd protection threshold. In contrast, the value of a vaccine with 50% efficacy is more ambiguous.ConclusionThis study yields a value-based price for a COVID-19 vaccine with 95% efficacy, which is more than 50 times greater than the purchasing price.

scholarly journals An exploration of cancer-related mortality attributable to infections in Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Ferrara ◽  
F Agüero ◽  
S Conti ◽  
C Masuet-Aumatell ◽  
L Mantovani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Human Herpesvirus ◽  
International Agency ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Carcinogenic Agents ◽  
H Pylori ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background Previous attempts estimated the impact of infectious agents on cancer incidence in Italy, but the burden of carcinogenic infections on cancer mortality remains unknown. Therefore, we aimed to conduct a preliminary analysis in order to estimate this burden at country level. Methods We applied the global, regional, or national population attributable fractions for Helicobacter pylori, hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8), and human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) - all microorganisms ranked as group 1 carcinogenic agents in human beings by the International Agency for Research on Cancer - to 2015 cancer-related deaths recorded according to the 10th International Classification of Diseases coding system in Italy. Results We estimated a total of 14,120 deaths attributable to carcinogenic infections, being 8.3% of the total of cancer-related deaths (n = 170,339). 58.8% of those occurred in men. H. pylori, HCV, HBC, and HPV accounted for 96.4% of the whole mortality burden attributable to carcinogenic infections in both sexes. H. pylori was responsible for 8,116 (57.5%) deaths due to gastric carcinoma (non-cardia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma). Hepatitis-related liver cancer accounted for a total 4,372 deaths: 3,812 due to HCV infection and 560 to HBV. Cancers related to HPV infection represented the third most frequent cause of deaths due to carcinogenic infections in women. Conclusions We estimated that one out of 12 cancer deaths in Italy was attributable to an infection sustained by carcinogenic agents. Such mortality burden is potentially avoidable, given that these infections are both potentially preventable and treatable. Thus, these estimates provide actionable metric of the burden for the implementation of specific public health measures. Further analyses will provide more accurate estimates of this disease burden. Key messages In Italy, one out of 12 cancer-related deaths is attributable to infections sustained by preventable or treatable carcinogenic agents. These estimates provide metric of carcinogenic infections for the implementation of specific public health measures to avert the related mortality burden.

scholarly journals Estimating COVID-19 Related Mortality in India: An Epidemiological Challenge with Insufficient Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Zimmermann ◽  
Maxwell Salvatore ◽  
Giridhara Babu ◽  
Bhramar Mukherjee
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
High Level ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Mortality Estimates ◽  
Related Mortality

The harrowing second wave of COVID-19 in India has led to much discussion over the quality and timeliness of reporting of deaths attributed to the pandemic. In this brief report, we aim to present the existing evidence, as well as the broader complexities surrounding the mortality burden of COVID-19 in India. This article sheds light on the following epidemiological issues: (1) general and India-specific challenges to COVID-19 death reporting, (2) latest COVID-19 mortality estimates in India as of May 16, 2021, (3) the apparent scale of uncaptured COVID-19 deaths, and (4) the role of disaggregated historic mortality trends in quantification of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. We conclude with a set of high-level policy recommendations for improving the vital surveillance system and tracking of causes of death in India. We encourage direct efforts to integrate health data and indirect strategies for cross-validation of registered deaths. Such system-wide advances would drastically aid epidemiological research efforts and strengthen India&rsquo;s position to overcome future public health crises.

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