Mortality decline, productivity increase, and positive feedback between schooling and retirement choices

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Zhipeng Cai ◽  
Sau-Him Paul Lau ◽  
C. Y. Kelvin Yuen
Keyword(s):  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Endogenous Variable ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Productivity Level ◽  
Economic Demography ◽  
Productivity Increase ◽  
Increase In Productivity ◽  
Standard Life ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The twentieth century has seen a phenomenal decline in mortality and an increase in productivity level. These two important events likely affect people's choices of schooling years and retirement age. We first show that in a standard life-cycle model, positive feedback exists between optimal schooling years and retirement age choices. We then evaluate the impact of a mortality or productivity shock on an endogenous variable (schooling years or retirement age) by decomposing it into the direct and indirect effects, where the indirect effect arises from feedback from the other endogenous variable. Finally, we extend the model by including the utility benefit of schooling and show that a negative correlation of schooling years and retirement age is possible. Apart from clarifying the apparently similar concepts of positive co-movement and positive feedback, our results have implications relevant to the economic demography literature.

Implications of higher retirement age for the labor market

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.

STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF RAISING THE RETIREMENT AGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY IN RUSSIA AND EUROPE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Apenko ◽  
◽  
Olga Kiriliuk ◽  
Elena Legchilina ◽  
Tatiana Tsalko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
The Impact

The article presents the results of a study of the impact of pension reform in Russia on economic growth and quality of life in a digital economy, taking into account the experience of raising the retirement age in Europe. The aim of the study was to identify and analyze the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth in the context of the development of digitalization in Russia and a comparative analysis with European countries. Results: the studies conducted allowed us to develop a system of indicators characterizing the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth and the quality of life of the population in the context of digitalization. The authors found that raising the retirement age leads to a change in labor relations in Russia and Europe. The application of the proposed indicators can be used in the formation of a balanced state socio-economic policy in the field of institutional changes in the field of labor relations and raising the retirement age. The study was carried out under a grant from the RFBR № 19-010-00362 А.

Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

scholarly journals Productivity Analysis Of Filling Machine With The Objective Matrix (OMAX) Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-39
Author(s):  
Katrin Sinaga ◽  
Kevin Lie ◽  
Nico Williams ◽  
Theresia Sunarni
Keyword(s):  
Production Line ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Productivity Analysis ◽  
Productivity Measurement ◽  
Productivity Level ◽  
Increase In Productivity ◽  
Productivity Ratio

A Factory is a manufacturing industry that produces tea drinks in cups. A Factory is also inseparable from problems related to machine/equipment productivity. Based on the results of observations made at A Factory part of the production line that there is often a sudden stop of the production process. The discontinuation will affect the quality of the product expected and the production targets to be achieved. The problem was discussed in this research is how much the productivity level of the filling production department is, how much the production effectiveness, effective working hours, the number of defective products, and machine downtime criteria. The productivity measurement method used is the Objective Matrix (OMAX) method, so the steps of this study refer to OMAX steps, which is the criteria determination/productivity ratio of the production line, the calculation of the productivity ratio value, the calculation of the initial standard score (score 3), The determination of the goal (score 10) and the lowest score (score 0), the determination of weight, the calculation of value/criteria value, the determination of productivity value for each period, determination of index percentage. With the OMAX method, it can be seen that in period 11 (compared to period 10) there was an increase in productivity, this can be seen because the IP value (Index of Performance) which is positive (+) is 27.79 and there is an increase in the value of the calculation at the time of measurement (current) from 383.36 to 300. This increase was due to an increase in the value of all criteria.

scholarly journals Impact of nonlinear surface inflows into activity belts on the solar dynamo

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Melinda Nagy ◽  
Alexandre Lemerle ◽  
Paul Charbonneau
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Magnetic Flux ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Meridional Flow ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Flux Transport ◽  
Bona Fide ◽  
Nonlinear Surface ◽  
The Impact

We examine the impact of surface inflows into activity belts on the operation of solar cycle models based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal field regeneration. Towards this end we introduce in the solar cycle model of Lemerle & Charbonneau (2017. ApJ 834: 133) a magnetic flux-dependent variation of the surface meridional flow based on the axisymmetric inflow parameterization developped by Jiang et al. (2010. ApJ 717: 597). The inflow dependence on emerging magnetic flux thus introduces a bona fide nonlinear backreaction mechanism in the dynamo loop. For solar-like inflow speeds, our simulation results indicate a decrease of 10–20% in the strength of the global dipole building up at the end of an activity cycle, in agreement with earlier simulations based on linear surface flux transport models. Our simulations also indicate a significant stabilizing effect on cycle characteristics, in that individual cycle amplitudes in simulations including inflows show less scatter about their mean than in the absence of inflows. Our simulations also demonstrate an enhancement of cross-hemispheric coupling, leading to a significant decrease in hemispheric cycle amplitude asymmetries and temporal lag in hemispheric cycle onset. Analysis of temporally extended simulations also indicate that the presence of inflows increases the probability of cycle shutdown following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events. This results ultimately from the lower threshold nonlinearity built into our solar cycle model, and presumably operating in the sun as well.

scholarly journals The Impact of Productivity Increasing in Indonesian Maritim Sector: General Equilibrium Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Widyastutik Widyastutik
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Productivity Improvement ◽  
Marine Transport ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Increase In Productivity ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

The increase in productivity in the maritime sector will realize the maritime sector as a prime mover. This study aims to analyze the impact of the maritime sector productivity improvement on the performance of the economy. This research simulates increased productivity in the maritime sector (consisting of the fisheries, oil, gas sub-sector and marine transport services sector) using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) version 8. Simulation analysis showed an increase in productivity in the maritime sector has a positive impact on welfare, real GDP, and trade balance of Indonesia. However, the impact of the increase in productivity is not followed by an increase in output in all sectors. This indicates that if the increase in productivity occurs only in the maritime sector alone without being followed by an increase in productivity in other sectors, the sectoral performance is not optimal.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v5i2.3403

scholarly journals State Administration of Retirement Age in the terms of Budget Crisis

Upravlenie ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
Соловьев ◽  
A. Solovev
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Pension Policy ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
State Pension ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the study is to analyze the effect of age on the appointment of the state pension fiscal system in our country. The problem of rising of the retirement age in Russia is given a value that is far away from the traditional context of direct influence of demographic processes on the level of pensions, on the one hand, and adaptation of the pension system to changing demographic factors, on the other. In the article the pension system for the first time is considered as a multifactorial model that corrects the degree of dependence on the mutually complex of macroeconomic and demographic factors in the different historical periods. This requires a fundamental change in the methodological approaches to the problem of rising the retirement age by using actuarial methods of forecasting. Actuarial analysis of the problem of retirement age in the work shows that the perception of the linear dependence of the age of the destination state of the demographic parameters cannot be considered as a tool for regulating the efficiency of the pension system. The results of the study are the specific parameters of actuarial assessments of the impact of demographic and macroeconomic conditions to increase the retirement age in Russia, conducted using data from the state statistics, formulated practical proposals to mitigate negative economic consequences. Conclusion: Rising the retirement age should be aimed at economic stimulation of formation of the pension rights of the insured in the long term, rather than the economy of the state budget. Methodological approaches, grounded in the work, and quantitative results of the actuarial calculations will be used in the formation of public pension policy in the preparation of the regulations to rise the retirement age, the pension formula of calculating the pension rights of insured persons, the mechanism of pension indexation.

Innovation and Information Technology in the MNE

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Cantwell
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Multinational Enterprise ◽  
Product Cycle ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Transfer Of Technology ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
The Impact

This article focuses on the roles innovation and information technology play in the multinational enterprise. In recent years there has been a steady expansion in the literature that relates the internationalization of production to the development and transfer of technology by multinational enterprises (MNEs). It is a literature that can be dated back at least to John Dunning's (1958) seminal study of the impact of US MNEs upon UK technology and productivity, and Ray Vernon's (1966) development of the product cycle model (PCM) as an explanation of the technological dynamism associated with the growth of US foreign direct investment (FDI) in Europe in the 1950s and 1960s.

Modeling of a Transcritical Carbon Dioxide Vapor Compression Cycle: Validation and the Effect of Refrigerant Pressure Drop on Cycle Performance

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas M. Robinson ◽  
Eckhard A. Groll
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Pressure Drop ◽  
Heat Transfer Analysis ◽  
Cycle Performance ◽  
Air Conditioner ◽  
Vapor Compression ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Vapor Compression Refrigeration Cycle ◽  
Component Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Due to world wide restrictions on the use of fluorocarbon based refrigerants, carbon dioxide has recently received attention as a possible replacement for those refrigerants in certain applications. In order to evaluate the potential performance of a transcritical vapor compression refrigeration cycle using carbon dioxide as the refrigerant, a cycle model has been developed which can simulate the operation of a carbon dioxide based air conditioner. This model is called ACCO2 and includes a detailed heat transfer analysis of the heat exchangers, accounting for the effect of both thermodynamic and thermophysical properties of carbon dioxide, as well as other component models. ACCO2 simulates the operation of a carbon dioxide based air conditioner that uses air as the heat source and heat sink. An overview of component models and the methodology to combine them into an overall cycle model (ACCO2) is presented. ACCO2 was validated using experimental data and data from another validated air conditioner model. During validation, it was noted that the accuracy of refrigerant pressure drop prediction had a strong influence on the accuracy of the prediction of overall cycle performance. In addition, conclusions were drawn concerning the impact of refrigerant pressure drop in an actual carbon dioxide based air conditioner. Conclusions are also drawn concerning the validation and future uses for ACCO2.

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