Diplomatic Calculus in Anarchy: How Communication Matters

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 347-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROBERT F. TRAGER
Keyword(s):  
Cheap Talk ◽  
Bargaining Model ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Crisis Bargaining ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Strategic Options

When states come to believe that other states are hostile to their interests, they often reorient their foreign policies by realigning alliance commitments, building arms, striking first, mobilizing troops, or adopting policies to drain the resources of states that menace them. This article presents a crisis bargaining model that allows threatened states a wider array of responses than the choice to back down or not. Two implications are that (1) “cheap talk” diplomatic statements by adversaries can affect perceptions of intentions, and (2) war can occur because resolved states decline to communicate their intentions, even though they could, and even though doing so would avoid a war. The model relates the content and quality of diplomatic signals to the context of prior beliefs about intentions and strategic options. In simulations, this form of diplomatic communication reduces the likelihood of conflict.

Policy bargaining and militarized conflict

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 647-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Bils ◽  
William Spaniel
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Cheap Talk ◽  
Bargaining Model ◽  
Information Uncertainty ◽  
Major Purpose ◽  
Crisis Bargaining ◽  
Spatial Policy ◽  
Militarized Conflict ◽  
Bargaining Model Of War

Studies of bargaining and war generally focus on two sources of incomplete information: uncertainty over the probability of victory and uncertainty over the costs of fighting. We introduce uncertainty over preferences of a spatial policy and argue for its relevance in crisis bargaining. Under these conditions, standard results from the bargaining model of war break down: peace can be Pareto inefficient and it may be impossible to avoid war. We then extend the model to allow for cheap talk pre-play communication. Whereas incentives to misrepresent normally render cheap talk irrelevant, here communication can cause peace and ensure that agreements are efficient. Moreover, peace can become more likely as (1) the variance in the proposer’s belief about its opponent’s type increases and (2) the costs of war decrease. Our results indicate that one major purpose of diplomacy is simply to communicate preferences and that such communications can be credible.

scholarly journals When and why do people act on flawed science? Effects of anecdotes and prior beliefs on evidence-based decision-making

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey L. Michal ◽  
Yiwen Zhong ◽  
Priti Shah
Keyword(s):  
Educational Interventions ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Learning Experiment ◽  
Apply Research ◽  
Evidence Quality ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Learning Interventions

AbstractToday’s citizens are expected to use evidence, frequently presented in the media, to inform decisions about health, behavior, and public policy. However, science misinformation is ubiquitous in the media, making it difficult to apply research appropriately. Across two experiments, we addressed how anecdotes and prior beliefs impact readers’ ability to both identify flawed science and make appropriate decisions based on flawed science in media articles. Each article described the results of flawed research on one of four educational interventions to improve learning (Experiment 1 included articles about having a tidy classroom and exercising while learning; Experiment 2 included articles about using virtual/augmented reality and napping at school). Experiment 1 tested the impact of a single anecdote and found no significant effect on either participants’ evidence evaluations or decisions to implement the learning interventions. However, participants were more likely to adopt the more plausible intervention (tidy classroom) despite identifying that it was unsupported by the evidence, suggesting effects of prior beliefs. In Experiment 2, we tested whether this intervention effect was driven by differences in beliefs about intervention plausibility and included two additional interventions (virtual reality = high plausible, napping = low plausible). We again found that participants were more likely to implement high plausible than low plausible interventions, and that evidence quality was underweighed as a factor in these decisions. Together, these studies suggest that evidence-based decisions are more strongly determined by prior beliefs than beliefs about the quality of evidence itself.

Population Aging and Grand Strategy

2021 ◽  
pp. 720-736
Author(s):  
Mark L. Haas
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Grand Strategy ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Demographic Trend ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Grand Strategies ◽  
A Share

This chapter examines the effects of population aging on states’ grand strategies. Due to major reductions in fertility levels and significant increases in life expectancies over the course of the last century, a majority of countries are growing older, many at fantastic rates and extent. The number of seniors, both absolutely and as a share of states’ overall population, is reaching unprecedented levels. This worldwide demographic trend is likely to affect all dimensions of states’ grand strategies, including in the great powers, which are among the world’s oldest countries. Population aging is likely to reduce states’ military capabilities, push leaders to adopt more isolationist and peaceful foreign policies, reshape states’ core international interests to place greater emphasis on the advancement of citizens’ quality of life and the protection of particular ethnocultural identities, and increase the perceived threat posed by immigration and multicultural ideologies.

scholarly journals Entre las creencias y la formación inicial de los estudiantes del Máster de Profesorado de Secundaria: Una mirada hacia la enseñanza de la literatura en las aulas

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-96
Author(s):  
Manuel Francisco Romero Oliva ◽  
Ester Trigo Ibáñez
Keyword(s):  
Professional Identity ◽  
Spanish Language ◽  
Initial Training ◽  
Future Teachers ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Master Program ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Language And Literature ◽  
The Impact

Resumen:Esta investigación analiza la repercusión del MAES en la formación inicial de los futuros docentes de Lengua Castellana y Literatura como base de una identidad profesional que se produce en la confrontación de sus creencias apriorísticas y los procesos reflexivos experimentados en los diferentes momentos del máster. Se ha tomado como población del estudio al grupo que cursó este máster en el año 2013-2014 en la UCA. La metodología combina diversas técnicas cualitativas y cuantitativas para triangular la información consignada en los instrumentos utilizados: cuestionario mixto, observación directa de los investigadores y narrativa biográfica. Los resultados demuestran que el MAES supone un salto cualitativo en la formación inicial de futuros docentes respecto a la enseñanza de la literatura. Abstract:This research analyzes the impact of MAES in the initial training of future teachers of Spanish Language and Literature as the basis of their professional identity in confrontation with their prior beliefs and the reflection processes experienced at different stages during the Master program. The population of the study has been taken from the group that attended the MAES in 2013-2014 at UCA. The methodology combines various qualitative and quantitative techniques to analyze and combine the information contained in the three different instruments used: mixed questionnaire, direct observation and biographical narrative. The results show that the MAES has been a meaningful leap in the quality of initial training of future teachers, especially regarding the teaching of Literature.

scholarly journals The Implications of Iran Sanctions on Civilian Mental Health and Quality of Life

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Tahan
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Destructive Effect ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
Foreign Policies

In order to synchronize foreign policies of governments, firm actions in the form of economic sanctions have long been employed by western countries. Those countries that tend to have independent views and policies are made to undergo economic adversity to fall in line. But the hardest hit by these coercive actions are the ordinary citizens who have to endure immense difficulty with social and economic issues not to mention the human rights violations. This paper provides a review regarding the effect of economic sanctions on mental health and quality of life of Iranian citizens based on data available from Iran post-sanctions. From 2012 stronger sanctions have been implemented on Iran as its nuclear program failed to draw faith in terms of its peaceful execution. Evidence have pointed out that economic sanctions imposed by western countries have a detrimental and destructive effect on the health of individual Iranians and they violated some basic human rights.

Public Outcry and Police Behavior

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 619-645 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory DeAngelo ◽  
Bryan C. McCannon
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Social Norms ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Neighborhood Context ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Law Enforcement Officials ◽  
The Law ◽  
And Performance

Abstract Numerous empirical studies have documented policing behavior and response to public opinion, social norms, changing laws, neighborhood context and a litany of other subject areas. What is missing from this literature is a general theoretical framework that explains the conflicting goals of properly applying the law and responding to social norms and the consequences of the law. We build a theoretical framework where law enforcement officials care about both reputation and performance. Outside evaluations assess the quality of the decision making of the officers, but can be influenced by strategic challenging of the sanctioning by the suspected violators. We first establish that reputational concerns can distort law enforcement, encouraging either over-enforcement or under-enforcement of the law, depending on the prior beliefs of violations and the observed signal. Introducing strategic challenging by the violator eliminates over-enforcement and allows for an even larger reduction in application of the law by less-skilled officers. Connections to empirical findings of distortions in law enforcement, along with an extension to deterrence are highlighted.

Japanese Political Studies in China: Progress, Problems and Prospects

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-354
Author(s):  
DINGPING GUO
Keyword(s):  
Political Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Political Studies ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Bubble Economy ◽  
Chinese Scholars ◽  
Pluralist Approach

AbstractThe quantity and quality of Japanese political studies in China are influenced by political developments in China and Japan, Sino-Japanese relations, and academic development of political science. After the collapse of Japan's bubble economy and the end of the LDP's long rule in the early 1990s, many Chinese scholars diverted their attention from economic issues and took more interest in Japanese political studies. Political issues such as the resurgence of nationalism, the rise of right-wing forces, the end of the ‘1955 system’, the political origin of long and heavy recessions, the ‘normal state’, national strategy, and foreign policies have been discussed and debated. New approaches and perspectives such as the political pluralist approach, the new institutional approach, the ecological approach and the political process approach have been used. It is imperative to overcome the institutional, political, and financial problems in order to improve the state and raise the quality of Japanese political studies in China.

scholarly journals The Hextol Foundation: Building a sustainable social enterprise business model

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Pattinson
Keyword(s):  
Business Model ◽  
Social Enterprise ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Learning Disabled ◽  
Business Model Innovation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Social Entrepreneurs ◽  
Strategic Options ◽  
Successful Business

This case focuses on how social entrepreneurs use business model thinking to create successful business models for sustainable social enterprise. It explores how the Hextol Foundation, an independent charitable company whose aim is to improve the quality of life of young people who are learning disabled, or who have mental ill health, uses business model thinking as part of a decision-making process to develop a sustainable social enterprise business model. The case provides a detailed account of the unique challenges presented to entrepreneurs who are driven by social purpose rather than solely by the need to generate a profit. The case is also useful in highlighting how business model thinking is used by entrepreneurs to identify, evaluate and pursue a range of strategic options. It advances our understanding of business model thinking and business model innovation in the context of a social enterprise.

Peers, Patronage, and the Industrial Revolution, 1760-1800

1976 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael W. McCahill
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Free Play ◽  
Patent Law ◽  
Industrial Economy ◽  
The Social ◽  
Economic Forces ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Moderate Cost ◽  
Early Phases

… My Thoughts always return to the Necessity of exercising Politicks in cultivating & protecting & extending our Manufactures as the principal Source for improving our Lands, multiplying our People & increasing & establishing our Commerce & Naval Force.Samuel Garbett to the Marquess of Lansdowne, 2 October 1786.Students of the industrial revolution now generally admit what seemed obvious to Samuel Garbett, the Birmingham manufacturer and lobbyist, two hundred years ago; namely, that the state was an important participant in the early phases of the industrial revolution. Many scholars still emphasize the restraint of English government — a restraint which gave relatively free play to natural economic forces and to individual genius, a restraint which also aggravated the social repercussions of so momentous a transformation. But they recognize that entrepreneurs could obtain legal sanction for enclosures, canals, and a myriad of other “improvements' easily and at moderate cost by means of a private act of parliament, and they debate whether existing patent law stimulated invention by providing adequate rewards for the inventor or aimed primarily at discouraging stultifying monopoly. Because the processes of growth in the last decades of the century were so fundamental and pervasive, fiscal, commercial, colonial, and foreign policies were bound to have an impact on the embryonic industrial economy. Whether government by its various acts encouraged or impeded growth is open to debate at a number of levels. There can be no doubt, however, that politicians endeavored, if sometimes slowly and haphazardly, to adapt policy and law to changing conditions and that their decisions did affect the tempo and quality of growth.

Challenges to Inference in the Study of Crisis Bargaining

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 569-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Arena ◽  
Kyle A. Joyce
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Causal Inference ◽  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Bargaining Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Crisis Bargaining ◽  
Backwards Induction ◽  
Unobservable Factors

The possibility that actors strategically condition their behavior on partially unobservable factors poses a grave challenge to causal inference, particularly if only some of the actors whose behavior we analyze are at risk of experiencing the outcome of interest. We present a crisis bargaining model that indicates that targets can generally prevent war by arming. We then create a simulated data set where the model is assumed to perfectly describe interactions for those states engaged in crisis bargaining, which we assume most pairs of states arenot. We further assume researchers cannot observe which states are engaged in crisis bargaining, although observable variables might serve as proxies. We demonstrate that a naïve design would falsely (and unsurprisingly) indicate a positive relationship between arming and war. More importantly, we then evaluate the performance of matching, instrumental variables, and statistical backwards induction. The latter two show some promise, but matching fares poorly.

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