scholarly journals Policy Preferences and Policy Change: Dynamic Responsiveness in the American States, 1936–2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 112 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
DEVIN CAUGHEY ◽  
CHRISTOPHER WARSHAW
Keyword(s):  
Policy Change ◽  
State Policy ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Future Change ◽  
American States ◽  
Change Dynamic ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
Over Time

Using eight decades of data, we examine the magnitude, mechanisms, and moderators of dynamic responsiveness in the American states. We show that on both economic and (especially) social issues, the liberalism of state publics predicts future change in state policy liberalism. Dynamic responsiveness is gradual, however; large policy shifts are the result of the cumulation of incremental responsiveness over many years. Partisan control of government appears to mediate only a fraction of responsiveness, suggesting that, contrary to conventional wisdom, responsiveness occurs in large part through the adaptation of incumbent officials. Dynamic responsiveness has increased over time but does not seem to be influenced by institutions such as direct democracy or campaign finance regulations. We conclude that our findings, though in some respects normatively ambiguous, on the whole paint a reassuring portrait of statehouse democracy.

Direct Democracy and Public Policy

2019 ◽  
pp. 362-379
Author(s):  
John Matsusaka
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Median Voter ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
American States ◽  
Conservative Policy ◽  
Initiative Process ◽  
Swiss Cantons

An extensive literature seeks to measure the effect of the initiative and referendum on public policies. Several conclusions emerge: The initiative and referendum have different effects on policy. Requiring popular approval of fiscal policies (mandatory referendums) results in lower expenditure, taxes, and debt. The initiative process gives voters more power and results in policies closer to the median voter preference; this often has reduced spending (American states, Swiss cantons), but sometimes has increased spending (cities). The initiative is associated with more socially conservative policy choices. Spurious correlation is a concern in many studies, and more research on causality is needed.

Measuring Hohokam Household Inequality with Construction Costs of Domestic Architecture at Pueblo Grande

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
David R. Abbott ◽  
Douglas B. Craig ◽  
Hannah Zanotto ◽  
Veronica X. Judd ◽  
Brent Kober
Keyword(s):  
Social Issues ◽  
Household Wealth ◽  
Domestic Architecture ◽  
High Status ◽  
Construction Costs ◽  
Architectural Styles ◽  
House Construction ◽  
Public Areas ◽  
Household Inequality ◽  
Over Time

Recent archaeological efforts to explain the emergence and persistence of social inequality have been hampered by little information about how wealth was transmitted across generations, and how it may have accumulated or diminished over time. Building on studies that have shown domestic architecture to be an excellent material expression of household wealth, we provide a method for reconstructing the amount of labor invested in house construction among the Hohokam of southern Arizona. We also account for different architectural styles from different time periods. To illustrate the utility of the method for addressing broader social issues, we investigate the relationship among population increases, resource shortages, and wealth differentials at Pueblo Grande—one of the preeminent settlements in the Hohokam region. Inequality at Pueblo Grande was tracked over time and compared to similar results at the Grewe site. High-status households at both sites were distinguished architecturally by larger and, in some instances, more elaborate houses. The proximity of these households to public areas for ceremonial expression further suggests that access to ritual played a key role in creating and maintaining inequality in Hohokam society.

Domestic Constraints on Foreign Policy Change in Belarus

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-55
Author(s):  
Paul Hansbury
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Interest Group ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Group Competition ◽  
Domestic Constraints ◽  
Foreign Policy Change ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Policy Shifts

Abstract After 2014 the relationship between Russia and its ally Belarus was strained. Russia was dissatisfied with Belarus’s foreign policy and sought to influence the latter’s international affairs. This article considers the extent of change and continuity in Belarus’s foreign policy, and thus whether Russia’s criticisms reflect consequential shifts, covering the period 2016–2019. The analysis begins with the removal of EU sanctions, which afforded Belarus new opportunities, and ends before the protest movement that emerged ahead of the election in 2020. The study considers three policy areas: international trade; diplomacy more broadly; and foreign policy concerns for prestige. The article argues that Belarus made appreciable policy changes in response to structural pressures in the period 2016–2019, but the parameters of these foreign policy shifts were necessarily highly constrained by domestic interest group competition which prevents Belarus distancing itself from Russia. It concludes with a brief reflection on how the 2020 election protests and repressions affect the dynamics described.

Congress and the Railroads

2011 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-326
Author(s):  
Zachary Callen
Keyword(s):  
Local Control ◽  
Drop Out ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Local Competition ◽  
Local Resource ◽  
American States ◽  
Antebellum Period ◽  
Federal Assistance ◽  
American Federalism ◽  
Over Time

This article argues that American federalism led both to a greater national role in rail promotion and more centralized railroads in the antebellum period. Local competition among states led Congressional representatives from state unable to build local railroads to turn to federal assistance. Early support for railroads came from representatives in the South and frontier, who were primarily drawn into rail coalitions because of their own inability to build local rail networks. However, over time, competition among states within the coalition as well as concerns about federal power led many initial members of the coalition to drop out. In their place, states that favored a stronger federal state stepped into the coalition and subsequently built a more nationally oriented rail system. This analysis argues that the shifting of policies from local control to national oversight due to local resource shortages is an important aspect of American states building.

scholarly journals The perception of biopsychosocial impacts of COVID-19 during lockdown restrictions over time in the UK – a mixed methods study

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (Special2) ◽  
pp. 402-414
Author(s):  
Samuel Grimwood ◽  
Kaz Stuart ◽  
Ruth Browning ◽  
Elaine Bidmead ◽  
Thea Winn-Reed
Keyword(s):  
Social Issues ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Mixed Methods Study ◽  
Biological Domain ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Integrated Recovery ◽  
Biopsychosocial Health ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the health of individuals physically, mentally, and socially. This study aims to gain a deeper understanding of this impact across the pandemic from a biopsychosocial stance. Methods: A survey created by the research team was employed between November 2020 and February 2021 across social media, relevant organizations, and networks. The survey incorporated 5-time points across the different stages of the pandemic, covering biological, psychological, and social. There were 5 items for each survey (Very Positive affect to Very Negative affect), and analysis was undertaken using SPSS version 16. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric Friedman and Wilcoxon Tests, as well as correlations between the three domains, were implemented. Results: This study included 164 participants (77.0% female and 35.0% male) across 24 out of 38 counties in the UK. The impact of COVID-19 on biological domain was significant across the five data points χ2(4) = 63.99, p < 0.001, psychological χ2(4) = 118.939, p <0.001 and socially χ2(4) = 186.43, p <0.001. Between the 5 data points, 4 out of 5 had a negative impact, however between the first stage of lockdown and the easing of restrictions, findings for biological (Z=-2.35, p <0.05), psychological (Z=-6.61, p < 0.001), and socially (Z = -8.61, p <0.001) were positive. Negative correlations between the three domains across the pandemic are apparent, but in later stages, the biological domain had a positive correlation r = 0.52, p < 0.001. Conclusion: The data shows a negative impact from the self-reported perception of wellbeing from a biopsychosocial stance over time, as well as perceiving the three domains to interact negatively. To address these biopsychosocial issues, the research implies a place-based integrated recovery effort is needed, addressing biological, psychological, and social issues simultaneously. Further research should investigate biopsychosocial health among a more generalizable population.

scholarly journals Neglecting Decline: Remembered and Predicted Personal Development Diverge from Actual Longitudinal Change.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Molouki ◽  
Daniel Bartels ◽  
Oleg Urminsky
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Personal Development ◽  
Absolute Magnitude ◽  
Longitudinal Change ◽  
Personal Change ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Change Over Time ◽  
Time Period ◽  
One Year ◽  
Over Time

A one-year longitudinal study was conducted to investigate the accuracy of people’s assessmentsof their own personal change over time. We compared people’s predicted, actual, and recalledchange in their personality, values, and preferences over this time period. On average,participants underestimated the absolute magnitude of their personal change, yet simultaneouslyoverestimated their net improvement, in both prediction and recall. This effect was due to anasymmetry whereby people selectively neglected negative changes, especially prospectively.Although participants in our sample both improved and declined over the year, they were morelikely to remember past improvements than declines, and made nearly uniformly positivepredictions of future change. We discuss how the current findings reconcile researchdemonstrating expectations of personal improvement (e.g., Wilson &amp; Ross, 2001; Kanten &amp;Teigen, 2008) with other research that suggests people overpredict their personal stability(Quoidbach, Gilbert, &amp; Wilson, 2013).

scholarly journals The Case Against Patents

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Boldrin ◽  
David K Levine
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Rent Seeking ◽  
Partial Equilibrium ◽  
The Political ◽  
General Equilibrium Effect ◽  
Equilibrium Effect ◽  
Over Time

The case against patents can be summarized briefly: there is no empirical evidence that they serve to increase innovation and productivity, unless productivity is identified with the number of patents awarded—which, as evidence shows, has no correlation with measured productivity. Both theory and evidence suggest that while patents can have a partial equilibrium effect of improving incentives to invent, the general equilibrium effect on innovation can be negative. A properly designed patent system might serve to increase innovation at a certain time and place. Unfortunately, the political economy of government-operated patent systems indicates that such systems are susceptible to pressures that cause the ill effects of patents to grow over time. Our preferred policy solution is to abolish patents entirely and to find other legislative instruments, less open to lobbying and rent seeking, to foster innovation when there is clear evidence that laissez-faire undersupplies it. However, if that policy change seems too large to swallow, we discuss in the conclusion a set of partial reforms that could be implemented

scholarly journals The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 757-790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Prosser ◽  
Jonathan Mellon
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
High Profile ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
Representative Samples ◽  
Over Time

Polls have had a number of high-profile misses in recent elections. We review the current polling environment, the performance of polls in a historical context, the mechanisms of polling error, and the causes of several recent misses in Britain and the US. Contrary to conventional wisdom, polling errors have been constant over time, although the level of error has always been substantially beyond that implied by stated margins of error. Generally, there is little evidence that voters lying about their vote intention (so-called ‘shy’ voters) is a substantial cause of polling error. Instead, polling errors have most commonly resulted from problems with representative samples and weighting, undecided voters breaking in one direction, and to a lesser extent late swings and turnout models. We conclude with a discussion of future directions for polling both in terms of fixing the problems identified and new approaches to understanding public opinion.

Strange Frame Fellows: The Evolution of Discursive Framing in the Opt-Out Testing Movement

2021 ◽  
Vol 123 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Paquin Morel
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Public Schools ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Qualitative Content Analysis ◽  
Research Question ◽  
The Public ◽  
Local Schools ◽  
Opt Out ◽  
Open Coding ◽  
Over Time

Background/context In recent years, opposition to accountability policies and associated testing has manifested in widespread boycotts of annual tests—mobilized as the “opt-out movement.” A central challenge facing any movement is the need to recruit and mobilize participants. Key to this process is framing—a discursive tactic in which activists present social issues as problems that require collective action to solve. Such framing often relies on compatible political and ideological commitments among activists and potential recruits. Yet the opt-out movement has successfully mobilized widespread boycotts in diverse communities. How have participants in the movement framed issues relating to testing and accountability? Purpose/objective/research question/focus of study I explore the discursive tactics of participants in the opt-out movement by analyzing how they frame issues related to testing and accountability over time. I ask two research questions: (1) What frames did participants in opt-out-aligned social media groups use to convince others that standardized accountability tests are a problem and build support for the movement? (2) To what extent and how did the deployment of frames change over time? Research design I conducted a mixed-methods study combining qualitative content analysis to identify frames and computational analysis to describe their co-deployment over time. Data collection and analysis I compiled a text corpus of posts to opt-out-aligned social media pages from 2010–2014. I analyzed posts using open coding to identify frames used by participants in online communities. Frames were categorized by their orientation—the general way in which they framed the problem of testing and accountability. I then analyzed the co-deployment of frames using network analysis and hierarchical clustering. Conclusions/recommendations The longitudinal analysis of frames reveals key differences in the frames used by participants. While more politically oriented frames—those characterizing testing as a social issue affecting the public schools at large—were common in early stages of the movement, less overtly political frames—those characterizing testing as an individual issue affecting children and local schools or a technical issue—became more prominent over time. Over time, socially oriented frames became decoupled from other frames, showing independent patterns of deployment. This suggests that the movement may have benefited from de-emphasizing politically oriented frames, but that it lacked an overarching shared narrative, which has the potential to limit how it might affect accountability policies and testing.

Representation in the One-Party South

2018 ◽  
pp. 142-171
Author(s):  
Devin Caughey
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Political System ◽  
Median Voter ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Marked Contrast ◽  
Ideological Bias ◽  
Congressional Representation ◽  
Southern Conservatism ◽  
The One ◽  
Over Time

This chapter conducts a systematic statistical analysis of congressional representation in the one-party South. Overall, the evidence presented in the previous chapters suggests a political system that was responsive not to a narrow elite only, but to a broad swath of the white public. As such, this chapter examines the responsiveness of Southern members of Congress (MCs) to their white constituents, both cross-sectionally and over time, and compares them to non-Southern MCs. It also shows that Southern MCs responded to the income of the median voter, and examines their ideological bias relative to non-Southern MCs. The chapter then highlights the ways that congressional representation did differ across regions, and discusses how these findings help resolve the “puzzle” of Southern conservatism. In marked contrast to the conventional wisdom, this chapter not only shows that Southern MCs were responsive to their white constituents, but also finds little indication that congressional responsiveness was weaker in the one-party South than in the two-party North, though the mechanisms and character of responsiveness did differ between regions.

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