Climate change impact on the distribution of Tossa jute using maximum entropy and educational global climate modelling

Abstract Tossa (Corchorus olitorius L.) is a significant cash crop, cultivated commercially in the lower flood plain of Bangladesh. The climatic regimes in Bangladesh are changing as well as the world does. However, this species is threatened by climate change. Occurrences of data on threatened and endangered species are frequently sparse which makes it difficult to analyse the species suitable habitat distribution using various modelling approaches. The current paper used maximum entropy (Maxent) and educational global climate model (EdGCM) modelling to predict and conserve the suitable habitat distributions for Tossa species in Bangladesh to the year 2100. Nine environmental variables, 239 occurrence data and two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used for the Maxent modelling to project the impact of climate change on the Tossa distributions. Furthermore, the EdGCM was used to study the climatic space suitability for the Tossa species in the context of Bangladesh. Both of the climatic scenarios were used for the prediction to the year 2100. The Maxent model performed better than random for the Tossa species with a high AUC value of 0.86. Under the RCP scenarios, the Maxent model predicted habitat reduction for RCP4.5 is 2%, RCP8.5 is 9% and EdGCM is 10.2% from the current localities. The predictive modelling approach presented here is promising and can be applied to other important species for conservation planning, monitoring and management, especially those under the threat of extinction due to climate change.

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Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859616000654 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 155 (3) ◽

pp. 407-420 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

R. S. SILVA ◽

L. KUMAR ◽

F. SHABANI ◽

M. C. PICANÇO

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Open Field ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Current Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

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The Impact of Climate Change on the Long-Term Response of Offshore Structures: A Study Case

Volume 3: Structures, Safety, and Reliability ◽

10.1115/omae2019-95261 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Irvin Alberto Mosquera ◽

Luis Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽

Paulo Maurício Videiro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Offshore Structures ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Wave Parameter ◽

Greenhouse Emissions ◽

The Impact ◽

Term Response

Abstract This paper discusses the influence of the climate change in the long-term response of offshore structures. The case studied is a linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system under environmental load wave characterized by the JONSWAP spectrum. The wave parameter data used in the analyses were obtained from running the wind wave WaveWatch III with wind field input data derived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs): HadGEM2-ES and MRI-CGCM3 considering historical and future greenhouse emissions scenarios. The study was carried out for two locations: one in the North Atlantic and the other in Brazilian South East Coast. Environmental contours have been used to estimate the extreme long-term response. The results suggest that climate change would affect the structure response and its impact is highly depend on the structure location, the global climate model and the greenhouse emissions scenario selected.

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Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16173185 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (17) ◽

pp. 3185 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Zhang ◽

Jing ◽

Li ◽

Liu ◽

Fang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Economic Value ◽

Distribution Data ◽

Cinnamomum Camphora ◽

Jackknife Test ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Resource Protection ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

The Impact

Rapid changes in global climate exert tremendous pressure on forest ecosystems. Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl is a multi-functional tree species, and its distribution and growth are also affected by climate warming. In order to realize its economic value and ecological function, it is necessary to explore the impact of climate change on its suitable habitats under different scenarios. In this experiment, 181 geographical distribution data were collected, and the MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. To complete the simulation, we selected two greenhouse gas release scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and also three future time periods, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. The importance of environmental variables for modeling was evaluated by jackknife test. Our study found that accumulated temperature played a key role in the distribution of camphor trees. With the change of climate, the area of suitable range will increase and continue to move to the northwest of China. These findings could provide guidance for the plantation establishment and resource protection of camphor in China.

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Constraining the model representation of the aerosol life cycle in relation to sources and sinks.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21948 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Paul Kim ◽

Daniel Partridge ◽

James Haywood

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Life Cycle ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Evaluation Framework ◽

Microphysical Properties ◽

The Impact ◽

Source And Sink

Global climate model (GCM) ensembles still produce a significant spread of estimates for the future of climate change which hinders our ability to influence policymakers. The range of these estimates can only partly be explained by structural differences and varying choice of parameterisation schemes between GCMs. GCM representation of cloud and aerosol processes, more specifically aerosol microphysical properties, remain a key source of uncertainty contributing to the wide spread of climate change estimates. The radiative effect of aerosol is directly linked to the microphysical properties and these are in turn controlled by aerosol source and sink processes during transport as well as meteorological conditions.A Lagrangian, trajectory-based GCM evaluation framework, using spatially and temporally collocated aerosol diagnostics, has been applied to over a dozen GCMs via the AeroCom initiative. This framework is designed to isolate the source and sink processes that occur during the aerosol life cycle in order to improve the understanding of the impact of these processes on the simulated aerosol burden. Measurement station observations linked to reanalysis trajectories are then used to evaluate each GCM with respect to a quasi-observational standard to assess GCM skill. The AeroCom trajectory experiment specifies strict guidelines for modelling groups; all simulations have wind fields nudged to ERA-Interim reanalysis and all simulations use emissions from the same inventories. This ensures that the discrepancies between GCM parameterisations are emphasised and differences due to large scale transport patterns, emissions and other external factors are minimised.Preliminary results from the AeroCom trajectory experiment will be presented and discussed, some of which are summarised now. A comparison of GCM aerosol particle number size distributions against observations made by measurement stations in different environments will be shown, highlighting the difficulties that GCMs have at reproducing observed aerosol concentrations across all size ranges in pristine environments. The impact of precipitation during transport on aerosol microphysical properties in each GCM will be shown and the implications this has on resulting aerosol forcing estimates will be discussed. Results demonstrating the trajectory collocation framework will highlight its ability to give more accurate estimates of the key aerosol sources in GCMs and the importance of these sources in influencing modelled aerosol-cloud effects. In summary, it will be shown that this analysis approach enables us to better understand the drivers behind inter-model and model-observation discrepancies.

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Urban climate in Central European cities and global climate change

Acta climatologica et chorologica ◽

10.14232/acta.clim.2018.52.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 51-52 (1) ◽

pp. 7-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Anita Bokwa ◽

Petr Dobrovolný ◽

Tamás Gál ◽

Jan Geletič ◽

Ágnes Gulyás ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Urban Climate ◽

Global Changes ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Complex Data ◽

Central European ◽

European Cities ◽

The Impact

Urban areas are among those most endangered with the potential global climate changes. The studies concerning the impact of global changes on local climate of cities are of a high significance for the urban inhabitants' health and wellbeing. This paper is the final report of a project (Urban climate in Central European cities and global climate change) with the aim to raise the public awareness on those issues in five Central European cities: Szeged (Hungary), Brno (Czech Republic), Bratislava (Slovakia), Kraków (Poland) and Vienna (Austria). Within the project, complex data concerning local geomorphological features, land use and long-term climatological data were used to perform the climate modelling analyses using the model MUKLIMO_3 provided by the German Weather Service (DWD).

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Eco-efficient flight trajectories – Using a Lagrangian approach in EMAC to investigate contrail formation in the mid latitudes

10.5194/dach2022-296 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Patrick Peter ◽

Sigrun Matthes ◽

Christine Frömming ◽

Volker Grewe

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Life Cycle ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽

Climate Effects ◽

Aircraft Trajectories ◽

The Impact

Air transport has for a long time been linked to environmental issues like pollution, noise and climate change. While CO2 emissions are the main focus in public discussions, non-CO2 emissions of aviation may have a similar impact on the climate as aviation's carbon dioxide, e.g. contrail cirrus, nitrogen oxides or aviation induced cloudiness. While the effects of CO2 on climate are independent of location and situation during release, non-CO2 effects such as contrail formation vary depending on meteorological background. Previous studies investigated the influence of different weather situations on aviation&#8217;s climate change contribution, identifying climate sensitive regions and generating data products which enable air traffic management (ATM) to plan for climate optimized trajectories. The research presented here focuses on the further development of methods to determine the sensitivity of the atmosphere to aviation emissions with respect to climate effects in order to determine climate optimized aircraft trajectories. While previous studies focused on characterizing the North Atlantic Flight Corridor region, this study aims to extend the geographic scope by performing Lagrangian simulations in a global climate model EMAC for the northern hemispheric extratropical regions and tropical latitudes. This study addresses how realistically the physical conditions and processes for contrail formation and life cycle are represented in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by comparing them to airborne observations (HALO measurement campaign, CARIBIC/IAGOS scheduled flight measurements), examining key variables such as temperature or humidity. Direct comparison of model data with observations using clusters of data provides insight into the extent to which systematic biases exist that are relevant to the climate effects of contrails. We perform this comparison for different vertical resolutions to assess which vertical resolution in the EMAC model is well suited for studying contrail formation. Together with this model evaluation using aircraft measurements, the overall concept for studying the life cycle of contrails in the modular global climate model EMAC is introduced. Hereby, the concept for the development of a MET service that can be provided to ATM to evaluate contrail formation and its impact on the climate along planned aircraft trajectories is presented. Within the ClimOP collaborative project, we can investigate which physical processes determine the effects of contrails on climate and study their spatial and temporal variation. In addition, these climate change functions enable case studies that assess the impact of contrails on climate along trajectories and use alternative trajectories that avoid these regions of the atmosphere that have the potential to form contrails with a large radiative effect. This study is part of the ClimOP project and has received funding from European Union&#8217;s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement N&#176; 875503 (ClimOP) and from the SESAR Joint Undertaking under grant agreements No 699395 (FlyATM4E).&#160;

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How Can Climate Change Affect the UNESCO Cultural Heritage Sites in Panama?

Geosciences ◽

10.3390/geosciences8080296 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (8) ◽

pp. 296 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Chiara Ciantelli ◽

Elisa Palazzi ◽

Jost von Hardenberg ◽

Carmela Vaccaro ◽

Francesca Tittarelli ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Construction Materials ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Damage Functions ◽

Near Surface ◽

Heritage Sites ◽

The Impact

This work investigates the impact of long-term climate change on heritage sites in Latin America, focusing on two important sites in the Panamanian isthmus included in the World Heritage List: the monumental site of Panamá Viejo (16th century) and the Fortresses of Portobelo and San Lorenzo (17th to 18th centuries). First of all, in order to support the conservation and valorisation of these sites, a characterisation of the main construction materials utilized in the building masonries was performed together with an analysis of the meteoclimatic conditions in their vicinity as provided by monitoring stations recording near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall amounts. Secondly, the same climate variables were analysed in the historical and future simulations of a state-of-the-art global climate model, EC-Earth, run at high horizontal resolution, and then used with damage functions to make projections of deterioration phenomena on the Panamanian heritage sites. In particular, we performed an evaluation of the possible surface recession, biomass accumulation, and deterioration due to salt crystallisation cycles on these sites in the future (by midcentury, 2039–2068) compared to the recent past (1979–2008), considering a future scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.

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Climatic impacts on water resources in a tropical catchment in Uganda and adaptation measures proposed by resident stakeholders

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-02958-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 164 (1-2) ◽

Author(s):

Bano Mehdi ◽

Julie Dekens ◽

Mathew Herrnegger

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

The Mean ◽

The Impact ◽

Far Future

AbstractThe Ruhezamyenda catchment in Uganda includes a unique lake, Lake Bunyonyi, and is threatened by increasing social and environmental pressures. The COSERO hydrological model was used to assess the impact of climate change on future surface runoff and evapotranspiration in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment (381 km2). The model was forced with an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) simulations for the mid-term future (2041–2070) and for the far future (2071–2100), each with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the Ruhezamyenda catchment, compared to 1971–2000, the median of all GCMs (for both RCPs) showed the mean monthly air temperature to increase by approximately 1.5 to 3.0 °C in the mid-term future and by roughly 2.0 to 4.5 °C in the far future. The mean annual precipitation is generally projected to increase, with future changes between − 25 and + 75% (RCP8.5). AET in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment was simulated to increase for the future by approximately + 8 mm/month in the median of all GCMs for RCP8.5 for the far future. The runoff for future periods showed much uncertainty, but with an overall increasing trend. A combination of no-regrets adaptation options in the five categories of: governance; communication and capacity development; water, soil, land management and livelihoods improvement; data management; and research, was identified and validated with stakeholders, who also identified additional adaptation actions based on the model results. This study contributes to improving scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on water resources in Uganda with the purpose to support adaptation.

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Thermal niches of planktonic foraminifera are static throughout glacial–interglacial climate change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.2017105118 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 118 (18) ◽

pp. e2017105118

Author(s):

Gwen S. Antell ◽

Isabel S. Fenton ◽

Paul J. Valdes ◽

Erin E. Saupe

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Planktonic Foraminifera ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Evolutionary Relatedness

Abiotic niche lability reduces extinction risk by allowing species to adapt to changing environmental conditions in situ. In contrast, species with static niches must keep pace with the velocity of climate change as they track suitable habitat. The rate and frequency of niche lability have been studied on human timescales (months to decades) and geological timescales (millions of years), but lability on intermediate timescales (millennia) remains largely uninvestigated. Here, we quantified abiotic niche lability at 8-ka resolution across the last 700 ka of glacial–interglacial climate fluctuations, using the exceptionally well-known fossil record of planktonic foraminifera coupled with Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Model reconstructions of paleoclimate. We tracked foraminiferal niches through time along the univariate axis of mean annual temperature, measured both at the sea surface and at species’ depth habitats. Species’ temperature preferences were uncoupled from the global temperature regime, undermining a hypothesis of local adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, intraspecific niches were equally similar through time, regardless of climate change magnitude on short timescales (8 ka) and across contrasts of glacial and interglacial extremes. Evolutionary trait models fitted to time series of occupied temperature values supported widespread niche stasis above randomly wandering or directional change. Ecotype explained little variation in species-level differences in niche lability after accounting for evolutionary relatedness. Together, these results suggest that warming and ocean acidification over the next hundreds to thousands of years could redistribute and reduce populations of foraminifera and other calcifying plankton, which are primary components of marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

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Balanced subsampling of future regional climate ensembles of opportunity

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20052 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jesús Fernández ◽

María Dolores Frías

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

National Level ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

The Impact

International model intercomparison initiatives, such as CORDEX or CMIP5, along with several relatively recent projects at international and national level, provide a wealth of model simulations of future regional climate. In a recent work, Fernandez et al (2019) collected 196 different future climate change projections over Spain, considering data from ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX, along with their driving global climate projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5. This ensemble mixed different multi-model initiatives in an ensemble of opportunity, in the sense that it does not respond to any scientific design beyond the exploration of multi-model uncertainty. This ensemble of opportunity is not only the result of the mixture of different initiatives, but also responds to the lack of a balanced experimental design within most of the initiatives. Many of the initiatives -especially those unfunded, such as CORDEX- are carried out on a voluntary basis, with no strong constraint in the global climate models (GCMs) used as boundary conditions or in the number of contributing members per regional climate model (RCM).Fernandez et al (2019) found in this ensemble a strong influence of the driving GCM on the regional climate change signal, along with favored GCMs, selected by many regional climate modelling groups to the detriment of GCMs publishing their output later or not at all. In this work, we quantitatively assess the impact of unbalanced GCM-RCM ensembles. For this purpose, we subsampled the ensemble of opportunity to obtain balanced sets of members according to different &#8220;what-if&#8221; situations: What if all RCMs had contributed a single member to the ensemble? What if each GCM had been dynamically downscaled only once? What if a given GCM/RCM had not contributed to the ensemble? For each hypothesis, there are a number of alternative sub-ensembles, which are used to evaluate uncertainty.Acknowledgement:This work is partially funded by the Spanish government through MINECO/FEDER co-funded projects INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R) and MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R).&#160;References:Fern&#225;ndez, J., et al. (2019) Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects. Clim Dyn 52:1139. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4181-8

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