Economic Considerations and the 2008 Presidential Election

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (03) ◽  
pp. 473-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Holbrook
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Personal Finances ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Economic Considerations

The idea that economic conditions influence election outcomes and voting behavior is hardly novel and would appear to be close to uniformly accepted, especially in the case of American presidential elections. Beginning with the early aggregate studies (Arcelus and Meltzer 1975; Bloom and Price 1975; Kramer 1971; Tufte 1978) and the important individual-level work that followed soon thereafter (Kiewiet 1983; Kinder and Kiewiet 1979, 1981; Fiorina 1981), election scholars have devoted considerable attention to the influence of the economy on voting behavior and election outcomes. Although the findings are many and sometimes disparate, a few general conclusions have emerged: economic voting is incumbency oriented rather than policy oriented (Fiorina 1981; Kiewiet 1983); at the individual level, evaluations of the national economy are more closely tied to vote choice than are evaluations of personal finances (Kiewiet 1983; Kinder and Kiewiet 1979, 1981; Kinder, Adams, and Gronke 1989); and, with the exception of 2000, the incumbent party is habitually returned to office when economic times are good and tossed out when economic times are bad (Campbell and Garand 2000). In short, we know a lot about how the economy influences voters and elections, and it would seem that there are few issues left to resolve.

Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections: Who Blames Whom for What

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Eisenberg ◽  
Jonathan Ketcham
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
County Level ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Level Analysis

Abstract In United States presidential elections, the incumbent party’s fortunes depend significantly on recent economic conditions, as numerous studies have shown. Many details of how economic voting takes place, however, are still not well understood. Here we present evidence on four issues. 1) Which is more important for determining people’s votes, national or local economic conditions? 2) What time frame do people consider in economic voting? 3) Which demographic groups are most sensitive to the economy in their voting behavior? 4) How does economic voting depend on the political context—in particular, whether a candidate is running for re-election, and whether the incumbent party also controls Congress? Our study includes the first county-level analysis of economic voting in presidential elections. We find the answers to our four questions are: 1) national conditions, by far; 2) the most recent year; 3) blacks, females, and the non-elderly; and 4) no.

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN R. HIBBING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

scholarly journals LOCAL ECONOMIC VOTING AND RESIDENCE-BASED REGIONALISM IN SOUTH KOREA: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woo Chang Kang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
National Economic ◽  
The Individual

AbstractRegional bloc voting in South Korea has been ascribed to voters’ psychological attachments to birthplace. This article seeks to expand the existing discussion of regionalism by showing that economic conditions in voters’ places of residence affect vote choices at the individual level and produce clustering of votes at the aggregate level in South Korea. While the idea of residence-based regionalism has previously been suggested, empirical scrutiny of the idea has been limited. Exploiting a Bayesian multilevel strategy, this article provides evidence that short-term economic changes at the province level affected voters’ choices in the 2007 presidential election in South Korea, independent of the long-term political affiliation between regional parties and their constituents. The positive association between local economic conditions and vote choices remains significant, controlling for perceptions of national economic conditions and other individual level covariates such as age and political attitudes.

Information and Economic Voting

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 753-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Rogers ◽  
Marcelo Tyszler
Keyword(s):  
Laboratory Experiment ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Popular Press ◽  
Information Demand ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Other Regarding ◽  
Economic Considerations

The connection between the economy and vote choice continues to garner interest both in the academic and popular press. To isolate the effects of economic considerations, we develop a laboratory experiment that allows us to vary these considerations at three levels: the individual, community, and national economy. Choices by policymakers directly affect outcomes at each of these levels, allowing us to test for egotropic, “communotropic,” and sociotropic voting, as well as examine information search. We observe significant demand for information and that demand decreases with the complexity of the environment. Moreover, information demand is positively associated with other-regarding behavior.

scholarly journals Economic perceptions and voting behavior in US presidential elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 205316802097281
Author(s):  
Colin Lewis-Beck ◽  
Nicholas F. Martini
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Economic Perceptions

The economic voting literature disagrees over the exogeneity of economic perceptions on individual electoral behavior. One side argues that economic perceptions are driven by partisan dispositions, which then calls into question the substantive importance of this factor in assessing electoral behavior. A second side argues that voters rationally assess the economy and accurately use this information to inform their electoral behavior. This article addresses this disagreement by disentangling economic perceptions from partisan dispositions. Using data from the American National Election Study from 1968 to 2016, we link objective macroeconomic indicators to individual economic perceptions, and then assess its explanatory power on vote choice in US presidential elections. The results indicate that objective economic perceptions have a substantive impact on support for incumbent candidates. Moreover, the estimated effect sizes are consistent with previous research estimating the relative importance of party identification and economic perceptions on vote choice.

scholarly journals Retrospective National Economic Appraisals and Shifts in Vote Preference Over Time During Political Campaigns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Hui Bai ◽  
Christopher Federico
Keyword(s):  
Past Research ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
The Individual ◽  
And Shifts ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

When citizens believe the economy is doing well, they reward the incumbent party by voting for its candidates, and if not, they punish the party by voting for the alternative. Past research at the individual level primarily focuses on the relationship between perceived economic conditions and vote preferences at single points in time. Two longitudinal studies show that perceived economic conditions at a given point in time also predict changes in vote choice over time at the individual level. Voters who believe the economy is performing poorly are not only more likely to vote for the non-incumbent party’s candidate, but those who initially state that they intended to vote for the incumbent party’s candidate also tend to change their mind by voting for the non-incumbent party. The pattern reverses for those who perceive the economy to be doing well. Cross-lagged panel analyses also suggest that economic perceptions and political preferences may have reciprocal effects on each other. Together, these results show that the effect of economic appraisals are more dynamic than the past individual-level literature implies.

Economic Voting in Taiwan: The Significance of Education and Lifetime Economic Experiences

Asian Survey ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 50 (5) ◽  
pp. 990-1010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunjung Choi
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Individual Vote ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Economic Experiences

An analysis of the 1996 and 2004 Taiwan presidential elections demonstrates that the voters' overall economic experiences under the dominant Kuomintang and level of education mediated the effect of short-term economic conditions on individual vote choice before and after the first power transition.

scholarly journals Preferences, vote choice, and the politics of social investment: Addressing the puzzle of unequal benefits of childcare provision

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
ERIK NEIMANNS
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Investment ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
Original Survey

Abstract Research on the politics of social investment finds public opinion to be highly supportive of expansive reforms and expects this support to matter for the politics of expanding social investment. Expanding social investment, it is argued, should be particularly attractive to left-wing voters and parties because of the egalitarian potential of such policies. However, few studies have examined to what extent individual preferences concerning social investment really matter politically. In this paper, I address this research gap for the crucial policy field of childcare by examining how individual-level preferences for expanding childcare provision translate into voting behavior. Based on original survey data from eight European countries, I find that preferences to expand public childcare spending indeed translate into electoral support for the left. However, this link from preferences to votes turns out to be socially biased. Childcare preferences are much more decisive for voting the further up individuals are in the income distribution. This imperfect transmission from preferences to voting behavior implies that political parties could have incentives to target the benefits of childcare reforms to their more affluent voters. My findings help to explain why governments frequently fail to reduce social inequality of access to seemingly egalitarian childcare provision.

Incumbent Tenure Crowds Out Economic Voting

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Martin Vinæs Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Economic Vote ◽  
The Government

AbstractDoes the importance of the economy change during a government's time in office? Governments arguably become more responsible for current economic conditions as their tenure progresses. This might lead voters to hold experienced governments more accountable for economic conditions. However, voters also accumulate information about governments' competence over time. If voters are Bayesian learners, then this growing stock of information should crowd out the importance of current economic conditions. This article explores these divergent predictions about the relationship between tenure and the economic vote using three datasets. First, using country-level data from a diverse set of elections, the study finds that support for more experienced governments is less dependent on economic growth. Secondly, using individual-level data from sixty election surveys covering ten countries, the article shows that voters' perceptions of the economy have a greater impact on government support when the government is inexperienced. Finally, the article examines a municipal reform in Denmark that assigned some voters to new local incumbents and finds that these voters responded more strongly to the local economy. In conclusion, all three studies point in the same direction: economic voting decreases with time in office.

Casualties and Incumbents: Do the Casualties from Interstate Conflicts Affect Incumbent Party Vote Share?

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 795-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. Koch
Keyword(s):  
International Conflict ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Investment Model ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Vote ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Cross National

Research suggests that the costs of international conflict (e.g. casualties) alter public opinion, executive approval and policy positions of elected officials. However, do casualties affect voting in terms of aggregate outcomes and individual vote choices? This article examines how casualties from interstate conflicts affect voter behaviour, specifically incumbent vote share. Using the investment model of commitment to model individual vote choice, it is argued that increases in the costs of conflict (i.e., more casualties) can increase the probability that voters will support the incumbent, increasing incumbent vote share. This model is tested with both cross-national aggregate data from twenty-three countries and individual-level British survey data. The results support the argument.

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