Predicted response of Storglaciären, Sweden, to climatic warming

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/s0260305500012209 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 24 ◽

pp. 217-222

Author(s):

Keith A. Brugger

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Surface Profile ◽

Summer Temperature ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Climatic Warming ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Increase ◽

Dependent Model ◽

Glacier Flow ◽

Comparable Magnitude

A time-dependent model of glacier flow was used to predict the response of Storglaciären, a small valley glacier in northern Sweden, to different warming scenarios by imposing two possible climatic forcings: one in which temperature alone increases (T model), and one in which both temperature and precipitation increase (TP model). A range of possible changes in temperature and/or precipitation was related to changes in glacier mass balance through a multiple linear correlation of mean specific net balance with mean summer temperature and mean specific winter balance. The T model was run with mass-balance perturbations in the form of linear increases from the recent (1980–89) mean summer temperature of 1, 2 and 4°C over the next 100 years. Perturbations for the TP model also used linear increases in precipitation of 10, 20 and 50% over current mean winter values in addition to increases in temperature.Results of the modeling suggest that initial changes in the glacier‘s profile due to increases in temperature, or in both temperature and precipitation, are of comparable magnitude to those that might be expected as the glacier completes its response under the existing climate. Changes in the glacier‘s surface profile and terminus position that can, with some certainty, be attributed to climatic warming may only become apparent several decades after warming has begun.

Long-Term Glacier Mass-Balance Investigations in Svalbard, 1950–88

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/s0260305500008351 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 14 ◽

pp. 102-106 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Jon Ove Hagen ◽

Olav Liestøl

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

Summer Temperature ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Climatic Warming ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Stable Conditions ◽

The Mean ◽

One Year

Mass-balance investigations on glaciers in Svalbard at high latitudes (78°N) show that the ice masses have been steadily decreasing during the period 1950–88. Detailed annual observations have been carried out on Brøggerbreen since 1966 and Lovénbreen since 1967. The mean specific net balances are −0.46 and −0.37 m year−1 water equivalent respectively. Only one year had positive net balance in this period. The cumulative mass lost in the period is then more than 10% of the volume in 1967. Zero net balance would be obtained if the summer temperature was lowered about 1°C or if the winter precipitation increased about 50%. There is a strong correlation between the net mass balance and the height of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA). Because of the high amount of superimposed ice (10–30% of winter balance) stake readings are necessary to find the ELA. There is no sign of climatic warming through increased melting. The trend analysis of the data from the last 20 years shows stable conditions with a slight increase of the winter balance. The net balance is then slightly increasing and thus less negative than 20 years ago.

Atmosphere Driven Mass-Balance Sensitivity of Halji Glacier, Himalayas

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12040426 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 426

Author(s):

Anselm Arndt ◽

Dieter Scherer ◽

Christoph Schneider

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Balance Model ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Reanalysis Dataset ◽

Monsoon Index ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Ice Surface ◽

Precipitation Increase ◽

Precipitation Changes

The COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) was employed to investigate the relationship between the variability and sensitivity of the mass balance record of the Halji glacier, in the Himalayas, north-western Nepal, over a 40 year period since October 1981 to atmospheric drivers. COSIPY was forced with the atmospheric reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land that has been statistically downscaled to the location of an automatic weather station at the Halji glacier. Glacier mass balance simulations with air temperature and precipitation perturbations were executed and teleconnections investigated. For the mass-balance years 1982 to 2019, a mean annual glacier-wide climatic mass balance of −0.48 meters water equivalent per year (m w.e. a−1) with large interannual variability (standard deviation 0.71 m w.e. a−1) was simulated. This variability is dominated by temperature and precipitation patterns. The Halji glacier is mostly sensitive to summer temperature and monsoon-related precipitation perturbations, which is reflected in a strong correlation with albedo. According to the simulations, the climate sensitivity with respect to either positive or negative air temperature and precipitation changes is nonlinear: A mean temperature increase (decrease) of 1 K would result in a change of the glacier-wide climatic mass balance of −1.43 m w.e. a−1 (0.99m w.e. a−1) while a precipitation increase (decrease) of 10% would cause a change of 0.45m w.e. a−1 (−0.59m w.e. a−1). Out of 22 circulation and monsoon indexes, only the Webster and Yang Monsoon index and Polar/Eurasia index provide significant correlations with the glacier-wide climatic mass balance. Based on the strong dependency of the climatic mass balance from summer season conditions, we conclude that the snow–albedo feedback in summer is crucial for the Halji glacier. This finding is also reflected in the correlation of albedo with the Webster and Yang Monsoon index.

Long-Term Glacier Mass-Balance Investigations in Svalbard, 1950–88

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0260305500008351 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 14 ◽

pp. 102-106 ◽

Cited By ~ 139

Author(s):

Jon Ove Hagen ◽

Olav Liestøl

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

Summer Temperature ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Climatic Warming ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Stable Conditions ◽

The Mean ◽

One Year

Mass-balance investigations on glaciers in Svalbard at high latitudes (78°N) show that the ice masses have been steadily decreasing during the period 1950–88. Detailed annual observations have been carried out on Brøggerbreen since 1966 and Lovénbreen since 1967. The mean specific net balances are −0.46 and −0.37 m year−1 water equivalent respectively. Only one year had positive net balance in this period. The cumulative mass lost in the period is then more than 10% of the volume in 1967. Zero net balance would be obtained if the summer temperature was lowered about 1°C or if the winter precipitation increased about 50%. There is a strong correlation between the net mass balance and the height of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA). Because of the high amount of superimposed ice (10–30% of winter balance) stake readings are necessary to find the ELA. There is no sign of climatic warming through increased melting. The trend analysis of the data from the last 20 years shows stable conditions with a slight increase of the winter balance. The net balance is then slightly increasing and thus less negative than 20 years ago.

Mass Balance Sensitivity and Future Projections of Rabots Glaciär, Sweden

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9080126 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (8) ◽

pp. 126

Author(s):

Moon Taveirne ◽

Laura Ekemar ◽

Berta González Sánchez ◽

Josefine Axelsson ◽

Qiong Zhang

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Summer Temperature ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Northern Sweden ◽

Dramatic Decrease ◽

Future Projections ◽

Modelling Studies ◽

The Relationship

Glacier mass balance is heavily influenced by climate, with responses of individual glaciers to various climate parameters varying greatly. In northern Sweden, Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance has decreased since it started being monitored in 1982. To relate Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance to changes in climate, the sensitivity to a range of parameters is computed. Through linear regression of mass balance with temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and incoming radiation the climate sensitivity is established and projections for future summer mass balance are made. Summer mass balance is primarily sensitive to temperature at −0.31 m w.e. per °C change, while winter mass balance is mainly sensitive to precipitation at 0.94 m w.e. per % change. An estimate using summer temperature sensitivity projects a dramatic decrease in summer mass balance to −3.89 m w.e. for the 2091–2100 period under climate scenario RCP8.5. With large increases in temperature anticipated for the next century, more complex modelling studies of the relationship between climate and glacier mass balance is key to understanding the future development of Rabots Glaciär.

Sensitivities of glacier mass balance and runoff to climate perturbations in Norway

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2015aog70a004 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 56 (70) ◽

pp. 79-88 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Markus Engelhardt ◽

Thomas V. Schuler ◽

Liss M. Andreassen

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Temperature Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Annual Runoff ◽

Precipitation Change ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Northern Norway ◽

Temperature Range ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Southern Norway

AbstractThis study evaluates sensitivities of glacier mass balance and runoff to both annual and monthly perturbations in air temperature and precipitation at four highly glacierized catchments: Engabreen in northern Norway and Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen and Storbreen, which are aligned along a west–east profile in southern Norway. The glacier mass-balance sensitivities to changes in annual air temperature range from 1.74 m w.e. K−1 for Ålfotbreen to 0.55 m w.e. K−1 for Storbreen, the most maritime and the most continental glaciers in this study, respectively. The runoff sensitivities of all catchments are 20–25% per degree temperature change and 6–18% for a 30% precipitation change. A seasonality of the sensitivities becomes apparent. With increasing continentality, the sensitivity of mass balance and runoff to temperature perturbations during summer increases, and the sensitivity of annual runoff to both temperature and precipitation perturbations is constricted towards changes during the ablation period. Comparing sensitivities in northern and southern Norway, as well as the variability across southern Norway, reveals that continentality influences sensitivities more than latitude does.

Climatic Variables and Mass Balance Of Alpine Glaciers During A Period Of Climate Fluctuation

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/s0260305500008934 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 14 ◽

pp. 333-333

Author(s):

David N. Collins

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Multiple Regression ◽

Rank Order ◽

Summer Precipitation ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climatic Variables ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Regimes ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Parameterisation of relationships between climate and glacier mass balance is of considerable importance in understanding and modelling how temporal variability in climate affects the quantity of perennial snow and ice stored in glaciers, and the runoff from glacierised areas. Influences of year-to-year variations in air temperatures are pertinent in the absence of long records of measured energy balance and in view of predictions of future climate scenarios in terms of temperature. Measurements of temperature and precipitation from several stations in Alpine valleys in the Rhone basin, Wallis, Switzerland have been analysed to indicate trends in climate from 1930 to 1988. Actual measurements of mass balance of Griesgletscher, ablation calculated from runoff and net accumulation estimated from totalising rain gauges for Findelengletscher and Gornergletscher beginning in the late 1960s, and runoff from Aletschgletscher since 1930, were taken as annual glaciological responses to climatic variation. Variables to represent climatic elements and interactions between precipitation and temperature were selected according to degree of correlation with glacier response variables, and climate-glacier response relationships were assessed by multiple regression. Subsets of the data representing the coolest (1972–81) and warmest (1943–52) decades were also analysed to indicate whether relationships amongst climatic variables and between climate and mass balance remain the same under contrasting climatic conditions.Overall, mean summer air temperature variables for the months May through September and June through August provide the highest levels of explanation of variance of ablation and mass balance respectively (75–82%). Addition of a precipitation variable (winter, spring or summer) in multiple regression increases explanation to a maximum of 91%. Spring and summer precipitation variables are negatively correlated with ablation. Positive degree days and temperature-summer snow functions provide alternatives to temperature. Event-based analysis of the coolest and warmest years selected by rank order invokes high precipitation in May and low May-June temperatures and summer snowfall events as significant variables.Relationships between climatic variables indicate that warmer-than-average winters have higher precipitation, but at summer and annual time scales precipitation is slightly negatively associated with temperature. At the decadal level, warmer periods appear to be influenced by increased frequency of continental anticyclonic conditions, in an area subject to both maritime and continental influences. These analyses of climatic variables indicate that summer energy inputs dominate glacier mass balance. Relationships between precipitation and temperature are complex and were changeable during a fluctuation of about 1° over 40 years. Effects of a potentially warmer future on the form of precipitation in spring, summer and autumn are not clear, so estimates of changes of mass balance have been calculated for contrasting precipitation regimes.

Response of glaciers in northwestern North America to future climate change: an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756407782871378 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 46 ◽

pp. 283-290 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Jing Zhang ◽

Uma S. Bhatt ◽

Wendell V. Tangborn ◽

Craig S. Lingle

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Hierarchical Modeling ◽

Future Climate ◽

Balance Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Mass Balances ◽

Modeling Approach ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

South Central

AbstractThe response of glaciers to changing climate is explored with an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach, in which global simulations are downscaled with an Arctic MM5 regional model which provides temperature and precipitation inputs to a glacier mass-balance model. The mass balances of Hubbard and Bering Glaciers, south-central Alaska, USA, are simulated for October 1994–September 2004. The comparisons of the mass-balance simulations using dynamically-downscaled vs observed temperature and precipitation data are in reasonably good agreement, when calibration is used to minimize systematic biases in the MM5 downscalings. The responses of the Hubbard (a large tidewater glacier) and Bering (a large surge-type glacier) mass balances to the future climate scenario CCSM3 A1B, a ‘middle-of-the-road’ future climate in which fossil and non-fossil fuels are assumed to be used in balance, are also investigated for the period October 2010–September 2018. Hubbard and Bering Glaciers are projected to have increased accumulation, particularly on the upper glaciers, and greater ablation, particularly on the lower glaciers. The annual net balance for the entire Bering Glacier is projected to be significantly more negative, on average (–2.0ma–1w.e., compared to –1.3ma–1w.e. during the hindcast), and for the entire Hubbard Glacier somewhat less positive (0.3ma–1w.e. compared to 0.4 ma–1w.e. during the hindcast). The Hubbard Glacier mass balances include an estimated iceberg calving flux of 6.5 km3 a–1, which is assumed to remain constant.

Preliminary results of mass-balance observations of Yala Glacier and analysis of temperature and precipitation gradients in Langtang Valley, Nepal

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2014aog66a106 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 55 (66) ◽

pp. 9-14 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Prashant Baral ◽

Rijan B. Kayastha ◽

Walter W. Immerzeel ◽

Niraj S. Pradhananga ◽

Bikas C. Bhattarai ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Lapse Rate ◽

Convective Precipitation ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Meteorological Observations ◽

The Impact ◽

Langtang Valley

AbstractMonitoring the glacier mass balance of summer-accumulation-type Himalayan glaciers is critical to not only assess the impact of climate change on the volume of such glaciers but also predict the downstream water availability and the global sea-level change in future. To better understand the change in meteorological parameters related to glacier mass balance and runoff in a glacierized basin and to assess the highly heterogeneous glacier responses to climate change in the Nepal Himalaya and nearby ranges, the Cryosphere Monitoring Project (CMP) carries out meteorological observations in Langtang Valley and mass-balance measurements on Yala Glacier, a debris-free glacier in the same valley. A negative annual mass balance of –0.89m w.e. and the rising equilibrium-line altitude of Yala Glacier indicate a continuation of a secular trend toward more negative mass balances. Lower temperature lapse rate during the monsoon, the effect of convective precipitation associated with mesoscale thermal circulation in the local precipitation and the occurrence of distinct diurnal cycles of temperature and precipitation at different stations in the valley are other conclusions of this comprehensive scientific study initiated by CMP which aims to yield multi-year glaciological, hydrological and meteorological observations in the glacierized Langtang River basin.

Present dynamics and future prognosis of a slowly surging glacier

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-4-1839-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 1839-1876

Author(s):

G. E. Flowers ◽

N. Roux ◽

S. Pimentel

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Surface Profile ◽

Yukon Territory ◽

Force Balance ◽

Surface Velocity ◽

Internal Dynamic ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Ice Surface ◽

Glacier Flow

Abstract. Glacier surges are a well-known example of an internal dynamic oscillation whose occurrence is not a direct response to the external climate forcing, but whose character (e.g. period, mechanism) may depend on the glacier's environmental or climate setting. We examine the dynamics of a small (~5 km2) valley glacier in the Yukon Territory of Canada, where two previous surges have been photographically documented and an unusually slow surge is currently underway. To characterize the dynamics of the present surge, and to speculate on the future of this glacier, we employ a higher-order flowband model of ice dynamics with a Coulomb-friction sliding law in both diagnostic and prognostic simulations. Diagnostic (force balance) calculations capture the measured ice-surface velocity profile only when high basal water pressures (55–90% of flotation) are prescribed over the central region of the glacier, consistent with where evidence of the surge has been identified. This leads to sliding accounting for 50–100% of the total surface motion. Prognostic simulations, where the glacier geometry evolves in response to a prescribed surface mass balance, reveal a significant role played by a large bedrock bump beneath the current equilibrium line of the glacier. This bump provides resistance to ice flow sufficient to cause the formation of a bulge in the ice-surface profile. We suggest that the bedrock bump contributes to the propensity for surges in this glacier, such that conditions suppressing ice-bulge formation over the bump may also inhibit surges. In our calculations such a situation arises for sufficiently negative values of mass balance. Collectively, these results corroborate our interpretation of the current glacier flow regime as indicative of a "slow surge", and confirm a relationship between surge incidence or character and the net mass balance. Our results also highlight the importance of glacier bed topography in controlling ice dynamics, as observed in many other glacier systems.