Anthropo-generated Climate Change in Europe

1992 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 349-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert C. Balling ◽  
Sherwood B. Idso

In reviewing the results of our analyses of European temperature and precipitation data, we see patterns that are similar to those discovered in our prior studies of the United States and the British Isles: precipitation begins to increase at about the time that Northern Hemispheric SO2 emissions began their rapid ascension, while prior upward trends of surface-air temperature are dramatically truncated.We also find that surface-air temperature trends of different localities over the past three-and-a-half decades are closely tied to the amount of aerosol sulphates in the atmosphere above them. The wide range and thrust of these several observations, along with their theoretical expectation, provides strong support for the premise that anthropo-generated climate change is indeed occurring in Europe, but that it may well be SO2-induced rather than CO2-induced.

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 200378-0
Author(s):  
Boonlue Kachenchart ◽  
Chaiyanan Kamlangkla ◽  
Nattapong Puttanapong ◽  
Atsamon Limsakul

Continued urban expansion undergone in the last decades has converted many weather stations in Thailand into suburban and urban setting. Based on homogenized data during 1970-2019, therefore, this study examines urbanization effects on mean surface air temperature (Tmean) trends in Thailand. Analysis shows that urban-type stations register the strongest warming trends while rural-type stations exhibit the smallest trends. Across Thailand, annual urban-warming contribution exhibits a wide range (< 5% to 77%), probably manifesting the Urban Heat Island (UHI) differences from city to city resulting from the varied urban characteristics and climatic background. Country-wide average urban warming contribution shows a significant increasing trend of 0.15 <sup>o</sup>C per decade, accounting for 40.5% of the overall warming. This evidence indicates that urban expansion has great influence on surface warming, and the urban-warming bias contributes large fraction of rising temperature trends in Thailand. The increasing trend of annual Tmean for Thailand as a whole after adjusting urban-warming bias is brought down to the same rate as the annual global mean temperature trend, reflecting a national baseline signal driven by large-scale anthropogenic-induced climate change. Our results provide a scientific reference for policy makers and urban planners to mitigate substantial fraction of the UHI warming.


2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 219-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Schwarb ◽  
D. Acuña ◽  
Th. Konzelmann ◽  
M. Rohrer ◽  
N. Salzmann ◽  
...  

Abstract. In the frame of a Swiss-Peruvian climate change adaptation initiative (PACC), operational and historical data series of more than 100 stations of the Peruvian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI) are now accessible in a dedicated data portal. The data portal allows for example the comparison of data series or the interpolation of spatial fields as well as download of data in various data formats. It is thus a valuable tool supporting the process of data homogenisation and generation of a regional baseline climatology for a sound development of adequate climate change adaptation measures. The procedure to homogenize air-temperature and precipitation data series near Cusco city is outlined and followed by an exemplary trend analysis. Local air temperature trends are found to be in line with global mean trends.


Author(s):  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Guoli Tang ◽  
Kangmin Wen

Based on a dataset of national reference and basic stations, which have been quality controlled and inhomogeneity processed, updated surface air temperature (SAT) series of the past 67 (1951–2017) and 113 (1905–2017) years for mainland China are constructed and analyzed. The new temperature series show significant warming trends of 0.24°C/10yr and 0.09°C/10yr respectively for the two periods. The rapid regional warming generally begins from the mid-1980s, about a decade later than the northern hemisphere average SAT change. Warming during the period of 1951–2017 is larger and more significant in the northeast, north, northwest and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and the most significant SAT increase usually occurs in winter and spring except for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau where winter and autumn undergo the largest warming. The slowdown of the warming can be clearly detected after 1998, especially for autumn and winter. The effect of urbanization on trends of the region averaged annual and seasonal mean SAT as calculated from the national reference and basic stations has not been adjusted, despite it being generally large and significant. In north China, the increasing trend of annual mean SAT induced by urbanization for the national stations is 0.10°C/10yr for the period 1961–2015, accounting for at least 31% of the overall annual mean warming. The contribution of urbanization to the overall warming of the past half century in Mainland China has also been summarized and discussed referring to the previous studies.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxu Shi ◽  
Martin Werner ◽  
Carolin Krug ◽  
Chris M. Brierley ◽  
Anni Zhao ◽  
...  

Abstract. Numerical modelling enables a comprehensive understanding not only of the Earth's system today, but also of the past. To date, a significant amount of time and effort has been devoted to paleoclimate modeling and analysis, which involves the latest and most advanced Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). The definition of seasonality, which is influenced by slow variations in the Earth's orbital parameters, plays a key role in determining the calculated seasonal cycle of the climate. In contrast to the classical calendar used today, where the lengths of the months and seasons are fixed, the angular calendar calculates the lengths of the months and seasons according to a fixed number of degrees along the Earth's orbit. When comparing simulation results for different time intervals, it is essential to account for the angular calendar to ensure that the data for comparison is from the same position along the Earth's orbit. Most models use the classical "fixed-length" calendar, which can lead to strong distortions of the monthly and seasonal values, especially for the climate of the past. Here, by analyzing daily outputs from multiple PMIP4 model simulations, we examine calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation under mid-Holocene, last interglacial, and pre-industrial climate conditions. We conclude that: (a) The largest cooling bias occurs in autumn when the classical calendar is applied for the mid-Holocene and last interglacial. (b) The sign of the temperature anomalies between the Last Interglacial and pre-industrial in boreal autumn can be reversed after the switch from classical to angular calendar, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere continents. (c) Precipitation over West Africa is overestimated in boreal summer and underestimated in boreal autumn when the "fixed-length" seasonal cycle is applied. (d) Finally, correcting the calendar based on the monthly model results can reduce the biases to a large extent, but not completely eliminate them. In addition, we examine the calendar effects in 3 transient simulations for 6–0 ka by AWI-ESM, MPI-ESM, and IPSL. We find significant discrepancies between adjusted and unadjusted temperature values over ice-free continents for both hemispheres in boreal autumn. While for other seasons the deviations are relatively small. A drying bias can be found in the summer monsoon precipitation in Africa (in the "fixed-length" calendar), whereby the magnitude of bias becomes smaller over time. Overall, our study underlines the importance of the application of calendar transformation in the analysis of climate simulations. Neglecting the calendar effects could lead to a profound artificial distortion of the calculated seasonal cycle of surface air temperature and precipitation. One important fact to be noted here is that the discrepancy in seasonality under different calendars is an analysis bias and is highly depends on the choice of the reference position/date (usually the vernal equinox, which is set to 31th March) on the Earth's ellipse around the sun. Different model groups may apply different reference dates, so ensuring a consistent reference date and seasonal definition is key when we compare results across multiple models.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 2271-2296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Deser ◽  
Adam S. Phillips ◽  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
Brian V. Smoliak

Abstract This study highlights the relative importance of internally generated versus externally forced climate trends over the next 50 yr (2010–60) at local and regional scales over North America in two global coupled model ensembles. Both ensembles contain large numbers of integrations (17 and 40): each of which is subject to identical anthropogenic radiative forcing (e.g., greenhouse gas increase) but begins from a slightly different initial atmospheric state. Thus, the diversity of projected climate trends within each model ensemble is due solely to intrinsic, unpredictable variability of the climate system. Both model ensembles show that natural climate variability superimposed upon forced climate change will result in a range of possible future trends for surface air temperature and precipitation over the next 50 yr. Precipitation trends are particularly subject to uncertainty as a result of internal variability, with signal-to-noise ratios less than 2. Intrinsic atmospheric circulation variability is mainly responsible for the spread in future climate trends, imparting regional coherence to the internally driven air temperature and precipitation trends. The results underscore the importance of conducting a large number of climate change projections with a given model, as each realization will contain a different superposition of unforced and forced trends. Such initial-condition ensembles are also needed to determine the anthropogenic climate response at local and regional scales and provide a new perspective on how to usefully compare climate change projections across models.


2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 635-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingxiang Li ◽  
Wenbin Sun ◽  
Xiang Yun ◽  
Boyin Huang ◽  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
...  

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 3217-3228 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Shin ◽  
S. Cocke ◽  
T. E. LaRow ◽  
James J. O’Brien

Abstract The current Florida State University (FSU) climate model is upgraded by coupling the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model Version 2 (CLM2) as its land component in order to make a better simulation of surface air temperature and precipitation on the seasonal time scale, which is important for crop model application. Climatological and seasonal simulations with the FSU climate model coupled to the CLM2 (hereafter FSUCLM) are compared to those of the control (the FSU model with the original simple land surface treatment). The current version of the FSU model is known to have a cold bias in the temperature field and a wet bias in precipitation. The implementation of FSUCLM has reduced or eliminated this bias due to reduced latent heat flux and increased sensible heat flux. The role of the land model in seasonal simulations is shown to be more important during summertime than wintertime. An additional experiment that assimilates atmospheric forcings produces improved land-model initial conditions, which in turn reduces the biases further. The impact of various deep convective parameterizations is examined as well to further assess model performance. The land scheme plays a more important role than the convective scheme in simulations of surface air temperature. However, each convective scheme shows its own advantage over different geophysical locations in precipitation simulations.


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