System Dynamics Applied to Operations and Policy Decisions

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 324-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.C.R. Hunt ◽  
Y. Timoshkina ◽  
P. J. Baudains ◽  
S.R. Bishop
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Analogous Data ◽  
Scientific Principles ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Analysis System

This paper reviews how concepts and techniques of system dynamics are being applied in new ways to analyse the operations and formation of artificial and societal systems and then to make decisions about them. The ideas and modelling methods to describe natural and technological systems are mostly reductionist (or ‘bottom-up’) and based on general scientific principles, with ad-hoc elements for any particular system. But very complex and large systems involving science, technology and society, whose complete descriptions and predictions are impossible, can still be designed, controlled and managed using the methods of system dynamics, where they are focused on the outputs of the system in relation to the input data available, and relevant external influences. For many complex systems with uncertain behaviour, their models typically combine concepts and methods of bottom-up system dynamics with statistical modelling of past or analogous data and optimization of outputs. System dynamics that has been generalized by advances in mathematical, scientific and technological research over the past 50 years, together with new approaches to the use of data and ICT, has led to powerful qualitative verbal and schematic concepts as well as improved quantitative methods, both of which have been shown to be of great assistance to decisions, notably about different types of uncertainty and erratic behaviour. This approach complements traditional decision-making methods, by introducing greater clarity about the process, as well as providing new techniques and general concepts for initial analysis, system description – using data in non-traditional ways – and finally analysis and prediction of the outcomes, especially in critical situations where system behaviour cannot be analysed by traditional decision-making methods. The scientific and international acceptance of system methods can make decision-making less implicit, and with fewer cultural assumptions. Topical examples of systems and decision-making are given.

scholarly journals ESD Ideas: It is not an Anthropocene; it is really the Technocene: names matter in decision making under Planetary Crisis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver López-Corona ◽  
Gustavo Magallanes-Guijón
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Modern Human ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Human History ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Scientific Principles ◽  
Life Phenomena ◽  
First Time

Abstract. We do not understand what we see but see what we understand. Words shape the comprehension of our environment and set the space of possibilities we can access when decision making. Inhere we make the case for the use of Technocene instead of Anthropocene using well-grounded arguments in basic scientific principles. We already know that the Earth system has co-evolved with life phenomena (i.e. the evolution of atmosphere chemistry). What the Technocene idea makes clear is that as modern human societies exhibit an enormous coupling with technology and for the first time in human history that technology has the potential to modify the very core processes that drive Earth System dynamics, then Technology most be considered as a new dimension of analysis in the study of Earth system in its co-evolution with life and particularly human beings.

STRATEGI MAKSIMALISASI ANGGARAN BELANJA PADA BALAI PENELITIAN DAN PENGEMBANGAN LINGKUNGAN HIDUP DAN KEHUTANAN MANOKWARI

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Hasan ◽  
Dedi Budiman Hakim ◽  
Irdika Mansur
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
The Third ◽  
Swot Matrix ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Using Data

This study aims to analyze causes of the low uptake of the budget and formulate a strategy of maximizing the absorption of expenditure on Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Manokwari. Respondents involved are 20 people that consist of: treasury officials and holder output of activity. The data used were secondary data in the form of reports on budget realization (LRA) quarter I, II, III and IV of the fiscal year 2011 to 2015, and the primary data were in the form of interviews with the help of a questionnaire. While the analysis of the data used was descriptive analysis using data tabulation, and the analysis of the three stages strategy of the decision making used IFE and EFE matrix, SWOT matrix and QSPM matrix.The results showed that there are 19 factors causing low of budget absorption until the end of the third quarter, and there were 10 drafts of policy as a strategy for maximizing the absorption of the budget on Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Manokwari.ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis penyebab rendahnya penyerapan anggaran belanja dan merumuskan strategi maksimalisasi penyerapan anggaran belanja pada Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Manokwari. Responden yang terlibat adalah 20 orang yaitu pejabat perbendaharaan dan pemegang output kegiatan. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa laporan realisasi anggaran (LRA) triwulan I, II, III dan IV tahun anggaran 2011 sampai 2015, dan data primer berupa wawancara dengan bantuan kuesioner. Sedangkan analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif menggunakan analisis tabulasi, dan analisis analisis strategi tiga tahap pengambilan keputusan menggunakan matriks IFE dan EFE, matriks SWOT dan matriks QSPM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat 19 faktor penyebab rendahnya penyerapan anggaran belanja sampai akhir triwulan III, dan terdapat 10 rancangan kebijakan sebagai strategi maksimalisasi penyerapan anggaran belanja di Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Manokwari.

Bayesian Decision-Making Based Recommendation Trust Revision Model in Ad Hoc Networks

2009 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 2574-2586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Xing SUN ◽  
Song-Hua HUANG ◽  
Li-Jun CHEN ◽  
Li XIE
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ad Hoc Networks ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Bayesian Decision ◽  
Hoc Networks ◽  
Bayesian Decision Making

Influence of Confucian culture on entrepreneurial decision making using data from China's floating population

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ran Xiong ◽  
Ping Wei
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Floating Population ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Confucian Culture ◽  
Chinese Nation ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Entrepreneurial Decision ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Relationship

Confucian culture has had a deep-rooted influence on Chinese thinking and behavior for more than 2,000 years. With a manually created Confucian culture database and the 2017 China floating population survey, we used empirical analysis to test the relationship between Confucian culture and individual entrepreneurial choice using data obtained from China's floating population. After using the presence and number of Confucian schools and temples, and of chaste women as instrumental variables to counteract problems of endogeneity, we found that Confucian culture had a significant role in promoting individuals' entrepreneurial decision making among China's floating population. The results showed that, compared with those from areas of China not strongly influenced by Confucian culture, individuals from areas that are strongly influenced by Confucian culture were more likely to choose entrepreneurship as their occupation choice. Our findings reveal cultural factors that affect individual entrepreneurial behavior, and also illustrate the positive role of Confucianism as a representative of the typical cultures of the Chinese nation in the 21st century.

Interpreting Bottom-up Decision-Making of CNNs via Hierarchical Inference

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Dan Wang ◽  
Xinrui Cui ◽  
Rabab Ward ◽  
Z. Jane Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bottom Up

scholarly journals New dilemmas, old problems: advances in data analysis and its geoethical implications in groundwater management

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
César de Oliveira Ferreira Silva ◽  
Mariana Matulovic ◽  
Rodrigo Lilla Manzione
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Analytics ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Aquifer Recharge ◽  
Groundwater Governance ◽  
Ethical Attitude ◽  
New Information ◽  
Modeling Experiment ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Groundwater governance uses modeling to support decision making. Therefore, data science techniques are essential. Specific difficulties arise because variables must be used that cannot be directly measured, such as aquifer recharge and groundwater flow. However, such techniques involve dealing with (often not very explicitly stated) ethical questions. To support groundwater governance, these ethical questions cannot be solved straightforward. In this study, we propose an approach called “open-minded roadmap” to guide data analytics and modeling for groundwater governance decision making. To frame the ethical questions, we use the concept of geoethical thinking, a method to combine geoscience-expertise and societal responsibility of the geoscientist. We present a case study in groundwater monitoring modeling experiment using data analytics methods in southeast Brazil. A model based on fuzzy logic (with high expert intervention) and three data-driven models (with low expert intervention) are tested and evaluated for aquifer recharge in watersheds. The roadmap approach consists of three issues: (a) data acquisition, (b) modeling and (c) the open-minded (geo)ethical attitude. The level of expert intervention in the modeling stage and model validation are discussed. A search for gaps in the model use is made, anticipating issues through the development of application scenarios, to reach a final decision. When the model is validated in one watershed and then extrapolated to neighboring watersheds, we found large asymmetries in the recharge estimatives. Hence, we can show that more information (data, expertise etc.) is needed to improve the models’ predictability-skill. In the resulting iterative approach, new questions will arise (as new information comes available), and therefore, steady recourse to the open-minded roadmap is recommended. Graphic abstract

Embracing School Counselors’ Situatedness: Data-Based Decision Making as Fulfillment of a Complex Identity

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1_part_3) ◽  
pp. 2156759X2110119
Author(s):  
Brett Zyromski ◽  
Catherine Griffith ◽  
Jihyeon Choi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
School Counselors ◽  
School Counselor ◽  
Use Of Data ◽  
Counselor Identity ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Support Students ◽  
Students Success ◽  
Data Based Decision Making

Since at least the 1930s, school counselors have used data to inform school counseling programming. However, the evolving complexity of school counselors’ identity calls for an updated understanding of the use of data. We offer an expanded definition of data-based decision making that reflects the purpose of using data in educational settings and an appreciation of the complexity of the school counselor identity. We discuss implications for applying the data-based decision-making process using a multifaceted school counselor identity lens to support students’ success.

scholarly journals Economic Development Based on a Mathematical Model: An Optimal Solution Method for the Fuel Supply of International Road Transport Activity

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2963
Author(s):  
Melinda Timea Fülöp ◽  
Miklós Gubán ◽  
György Kovács ◽  
Mihály Avornicului
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Fuel Cost

Due to globalization and increased market competition, forwarding companies must focus on the optimization of their international transport activities and on cost reduction. The minimization of the amount and cost of fuel results in increased competition and profitability of the companies as well as the reduction of environmental damage. Nowadays, these aspects are particularly important. This research aims to develop a new optimization method for road freight transport costs in order to reduce the fuel costs and determine optimal fueling stations and to calculate the optimal quantity of fuel to refill. The mathematical method developed in this research has two phases. In the first phase the optimal, most cost-effective fuel station is determined based on the potential fuel stations. The specific fuel prices differ per fuel station, and the stations are located at different distances from the main transport way. The method developed in this study supports drivers’ decision-making regarding whether to refuel at a farther but cheaper fuel station or at a nearer but more expensive fuel station based on the more economical choice. Thereafter, it is necessary to determine the optimal fuel volume, i.e., the exact volume required including a safe amount to cover stochastic incidents (e.g., road closures). This aspect of the optimization method supports drivers’ optimal decision-making regarding optimal fuel stations and how much fuel to obtain in order to reduce the fuel cost. Therefore, the application of this new method instead of the recently applied ad-hoc individual decision-making of the drivers results in significant fuel cost savings. A case study confirmed the efficiency of the proposed method.

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