Estimating the potential yield and ETc of winter wheat across Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in the future with the modified DSSAT model

Crop potential yields in cropland are the essential reflection of the utilization of cropland resources. The changes of the quantity, quality, and spatial distribution of cropland will directly affect the crop potential yields, so it is very crucial to simulate future cropland distribution and predict crop potential yields to ensure the future food security. In the present study, the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was employed to simulate land-use changes in Northeast China during 2015–2050. Then, the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model was used to predict maize potential yields in Northeast China in 2050, and the spatio-temporal changes of maize potential yields during 2015–2050 were explored. The results were the following. (1) The woodland and grassland decreased by 5.13 million ha and 1.74 million ha respectively in Northeast China from 2015 to 2050, which were mainly converted into unused land. Most of the dryland was converted to paddy field and built-up land. (2) In 2050, the total maize potential production and average potential yield in Northeast China were 218.09 million tonnes and 6880.59 kg/ha. Thirteen prefecture-level cities had maize potential production of more than 7 million tonnes, and 11 cities had maize potential yields of more than 8000 kg/ha. (3) During 2015–2050, the total maize potential production and average yield decreased by around 23 million tonnes and 700 kg/ha in Northeast China, respectively. (4) The maize potential production increased in 15 cities located in the plain areas over the 35 years. The potential yields increased in only nine cities, which were mainly located in the Sanjiang Plain and the southeastern regions. The results highlight the importance of coping with the future land-use changes actively, maintaining the balance of farmland occupation and compensation, improving the cropland quality, and ensuring food security in Northeast China.

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Water use by winter wheat as affected by soil management

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859600043458 ◽

1984 ◽

Vol 103 (1) ◽

pp. 189-199 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

M. J. Goss ◽

K. R. Howse ◽

Judith M. Vaughan-Williams ◽

M. A. Ward ◽

W. Jenkins

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Soil Water ◽

Water Deficit ◽

Water Use ◽

Management Practices ◽

Soil Management ◽

Maximum Depth ◽

Water Extraction ◽

Soil Water Deficit ◽

Potential Yield

SummaryIn each of the years from September 1977 to July 1982 winter wheat was grown on one or more of three clay soil sites (clay content 35–55%) in Oxfordshire where the climate is close to the average for the area of England growing winter cereals.The effects on crop water use of different soil management practices, including ploughing, direct drilling and subsoil drainage, are compared. Cultivation treatment had little effect on the maximum depth of water extraction, which on average in these clay soils was 1·54 m below the soil surface. Maximum soil water deficit was also little affected by cultivation; the maximum recorded value was 186±7·6 mm. Subsoil drainage increased the maximum depth of water extraction by approximately 15 cm and the maximum soil water deficit by about 17 mm.Generally soil management had little effect on either total water use by the crop which was found to be close to the potential evaporation estimated by the method of Penman, or water use efficiency which for these crops was about 52 kg/ha par mm water used.Results are discussed in relation to limitations to potential yield.

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Estimation of Winter Wheat Production Potential Based on Remotely-Sensed Imagery and Process-Based Model Simulations

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12172857 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (17) ◽

pp. 2857

Author(s):

Tingting Lang ◽

Yanzhao Yang ◽

Kun Jia ◽

Chao Zhang ◽

Zhen You ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Spatial Data ◽

Crop Production ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Image Data ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Transfer Model ◽

Gis Technology ◽

Production Potential ◽

Dssat Model

Crop production potential is an index used to evaluate crop productivity capacity in one region. The spatial production potential can help give the maximum value of crop yield and visually clarify the prospects of agricultural development. The DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) model has been used in crop growth analysis, but spatial simulation and analysis at high resolution have not been widely performed for exact crop planting locations. In this study, the light-temperature production potential of winter wheat was simulated with the DSSAT model in the winter wheat planting area, extracted according to Remote Sensing (RS) image data in the Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ) region. To obtain the precise study area, a Decision Tree (DT) classification was used to extract the winter wheat planting area. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology was used to process spatial data and provide a map of the spatial distribution of the production potential. The production potential of winter wheat was estimated in batches with the DSSAT model. The results showed that the light-temperature production potential is between 4238 and 10,774 kg/ha in JJJ. The production potential in the central part of the planting area is higher than that in the south and north in JJJ due to the influences of light and temperature. These results can be useful for crop model simulation users and decision makers in JJJ.

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Variability of grain yield components of some new winter wheat genotypes (Triticum aestivum L.)

Plant Soil and Environment ◽

10.17221/4231-pse ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 48 (No. 5) ◽

pp. 230-235

Author(s):

M. Sabo ◽

M. Bede ◽

Ž.U. Hardi

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Yield Components ◽

Vegetation Period ◽

Grain Number ◽

Potential Yield ◽

High Positive Correlation ◽

Wheat Genotypes ◽

Grain Number Per Spike ◽

Grain Yield Components

Variability of grain yield components of some new winter wheat genotypes (e.g. Lara, Lenta, Kruna, Fiesta, Perla, and one line of AG-45) was examined. The analysis of grain yield components of these genotypes and the line was undertaken in a two-year research (1997/1998 and 1998/1999) at two different locations. Significant differences among genotypes, locations and research years were established. In the first experimental year (1997/1998) there was a high positive correlation between nearly all components of the grain yield. The most significant correlation was found between the grain number per spike and grain yield. In the second experimental year (1998/1999) the components did not show statistically significant correlation with the grain yield. It seems that the grain yield of examined genotypes depended significantly on the grain number per spike, grain mass per spike, and agroecological conditions during the vegetation period, whereby the potential yield was determined by the interaction among genotypes, location and production year. The biggest differences among examined genotypes of winter wheat were found in the stem height and spike length.

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Detecting changes in irrigation water requirement in Central Asia under CO2 fertilization and land use changes

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8047 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jing Tian ◽

Yongqiang Zhang

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Central Asia ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Water Requirement ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Irrigation Water Requirement ◽

Maximum Increase ◽

The Future

As one of the largest arid and semiarid areas in the world, Central Asia (CA) has been facing severe water crisis. Agricultural irrigation consumes most water resources there. However, it is not clear how the irrigation water requirement (IWR) varies spatially and temporally in CA, especially under CO2 fertilization and land use change. This study, for the first time, quantifies changes of IWR for two predominant crops (cotton and winter wheat) over CA under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, both of which consider CO2 fertilization effects) and land use projections. Our results show that without considering atmospheric CO2 concentration for estimating IWR would result in large errors and even different signs of the changes. In the future, IWR for cotton and winter wheat tends to increase in 2020s and 2040s but decrease in 2060s and 2080s under RCP2.6 and CO2 fertilization. The change magnitude is less than 5%. Under RCP4.5 and CO2 fertilization, most areas in CA exhibit an increase of less than 5%. The maximum increases of 5%-15% for cotton occur in&#160; Tajikistan. The maximum increase of more than 50% for winter wheat occurs in Tajikistan under both climate scenarios. The IWR in Turkmenistan is most sensitive to land use change, with 33% increase compared with IWR in 2015. The other four countries have small differences (less than 10%) between 2015 and 2030. Severe water security pressure is predicted in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and the smallest in Tajikistan. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of IWR for the Central Asian countries in the future and helps the decision maker for sensible water management.

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Winter Wheat Yield and DSSAT Model Evaluation in a Diverse Semi-Arid Climate and Agronomic Practices

International Journal of Plant Production ◽

10.1007/s42106-019-00080-6 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 221-243 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Fatemeh Mehrabi ◽

Ali Reza Sepaskhah

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Model Evaluation ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Arid Climate ◽

Agronomic Practices ◽

Dssat Model ◽

Winter Wheat Yield ◽

Semi Arid

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“After the Putsch”: Prospects for Independent Ukraine

Nationalities Papers ◽

10.1080/00905999308408274 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 35-46

Author(s):

David R. Marples

Keyword(s):

Soviet Union ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Standard Of Living ◽

Declaration Of Independence ◽

European State ◽

Grain Crops ◽

The Soviet Union ◽

The Future ◽

Former Soviet Republics

There has been considerable speculation as to which of the former Soviet republics could become viable economic entities following the Putsch of August 19-21, 1991, and the resultant dissolution of the USSR. The consensus is that after Russia, Ukraine has the best chances of survival as a European state with a highly developed economy. Yet the picture remains a bleak one. Although Ukraine has advanced industry and has been a major source of grain crops (of winter wheat in particular), a declining standard of living had been forecast by its economic experts for the period 1991-1995, even before the August 24 declaration of independence. The following study will show Ukraine's major advantages and weaknesses, and what sort of prospects lie ahead for an independent Ukraine. As with any statements on the future of the former territories of the Soviet Union, they have to be qualified with the phrase “pending future political developments.” For the most part, the assumption is made that relations between Ukraine and its once and future economic partners will be amicable.

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Models for Predicting Potential Yield Loss of Wheat Caused by Stripe Rust in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Phytopathology ◽

10.1094/phyto-08-10-0215 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 101 (5) ◽

pp. 544-554 ◽

Cited By ~ 34

Author(s):

D. Sharma-Poudyal ◽

X. M. Chen

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Pacific Northwest ◽

Stripe Rust ◽

Spring Wheat ◽

Yield Loss ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

The Other ◽

Potential Yield ◽

Highly Correlated ◽

The U.S

Climatic variation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) affects epidemics of wheat stripe rust caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici. Previous models only estimated disease severity at the flowering stage, which may not predict the actual yield loss. To identify weather factors correlated to stripe rust epidemics and develop models for predicting potential yield loss, correlation and regression analyses were conducted using weather parameters and historical yield loss data from 1993 to 2007 for winter wheat and 1995 to 2007 for spring wheat. Among 1,376 weather variables, 54 were correlated to yield loss of winter wheat and 18 to yield loss of spring wheat. Among the seasons, winter temperature variables were more highly correlated to wheat yield loss than the other seasons. The sum of daily temperatures and accumulated negative degree days of February were more highly correlated to winter wheat yield loss than the other monthly winter variables. In addition, the number of winter rainfall days was found correlated with yield loss. Six yield loss models were selected for each of winter and spring wheats based on their better correlation coefficients, time of weather data availability during the crop season, and better performance in validation tests. Compared with previous models, the new system of using a series of the selected models has advantages that should make it more suitable for forecasting and managing stripe rust in the major wheat growing areas in the U.S. PNW, where the weather conditions have become more favorable to stripe rust.

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Winter wheat cultivars in Australian farming systems: a review

Crop and Pasture Science ◽

10.1071/cp17173 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 68 (6) ◽

pp. 501 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

James R. Hunt

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Farming Systems ◽

Wheat Cultivars ◽

Vegetative Development ◽

Potential Yield ◽

Dual Purpose ◽

Agronomic Management ◽

Vernalisation Requirement ◽

Winter Wheat Cultivars

Winter wheat cultivars are defined as those that have an obligate vernalisation requirement that must be met before they will progress from the vegetative to reproductive phase of development i.e. they must experience a true winter before they will flower. Historically, very little breeding effort has been applied to the selection of winter cultivars suited to southern Australia, with the notable exception of the New South Wales Agriculture breeding program based in Wagga and Temora that ran from the 1960s until 2002. A shift by growers to earlier sowing, increased usage of dual-purpose cereals, and research highlighting the whole-farm benefits of winter cultivars to average farm wheat yield has increased grower interest and demand for winter cultivars. Three major wheat breeding companies operating in southern Australia have responded by commencing selection for milling quality winter cultivars, the first of which was released in 2017. Existing research relating to winter wheats in southern Australian farming systems is reviewed here, including interactions with agronomic management, environment and weeds and disease. It is concluded that winter wheats can offer significant production and farming system benefits to growers by allowing earlier establishment, which increases water-limited potential yield (PYw) by ~15% relative to later sown spring wheats, and makes forage available for dual-purpose grazing during vegetative development. Winter wheats sown early require agronomic management different to that of later sown spring wheats, including greater attention to control of grass weeds and certain diseases. There are significant research gaps that will prevent growers from maximising the opportunities from new winter cultivars once they are released. The first of these is a well-defined establishment window for winter cultivars, particularly in medium-low rainfall environments of South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia that have not historically grown them. There is circumstantial evidence that the yield advantage of early established winter wheats over later sown spring wheats is greatest when stored soil water is present at establishment, or the soil profile fills during the growing season. Explicit confirmation of this would allow growers to identify situations where the yield advantage of winter wheats will be maximised. Given the imminent release of several new winter wheat cultivars and the increases in PYw that they embody, it is critical to experimentally define the management and environmental conditions under which performance of these new genotypes are optimised, before their release and availability to growers. Optimising the genotype × environmental × management interactions possible with these cultivars will empower growers to make the best use of the technology and better realise the gains in water limited potential yield possible with these genotypes.

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