scholarly journals The approximately universal shapes of epidemic curves in the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Heng ◽  
Christian L. Althaus

Abstract Compartmental transmission models have become an invaluable tool to study the dynamics of infectious diseases. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is known to have an exact semi-analytical solution. In the current study, the approach of Harko et al. (Appl. Math. Comput. 236:184–194, 2014) is generalised to obtain an approximate semi-analytical solution of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The SEIR model curves have nearly the same shapes as the SIR ones, but with a stretch factor applied to them across time that is related to the ratio of the incubation to infectious periods. This finding implies an approximate characteristic timescale, scaled by this stretch factor, that is universal to all SEIR models, which only depends on the basic reproduction number and initial fraction of the population that is infectious.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junu Kim ◽  
Kensaku Matsunami ◽  
Kozue Okamura ◽  
Sara Badr ◽  
Hirokazu Sugiyama

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread throughout the world. The prediction of the number of cases has become essential to governments’ ability to define policies and take countermeasures in advance. The numbers of cases have been estimated using compartment models of infectious diseases such as the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and its derived models. However, the required use of hypothetical future values for parameters, such as the effective reproduction number or infection rate, increases the uncertainty of the prediction results. Here, we describe our model for forecasting future COVID-19 cases based on observed data by considering the time delay (tdelay). We used machine learning to estimate the future infection rate based on real-time mobility, temperature, and relative humidity. We then used this calculation with the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to forecast future cases with less uncertainty. The results suggest that changes in mobility affect observed infection rates with 5–10 days of time delay. This window should be accounted for in the decision-making phase especially during periods with predicted infection surges. Our prediction model helps governments and medical institutions to take targeted early countermeasures at critical decision points regarding mobility to avoid significant levels of infection rise.


J ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal ◽  
Ankit Sikarwar

In this article, a time-dependent susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is constructed to investigate the transmission rate of COVID-19 in various regions of India. The model included the fundamental parameters on which the transmission rate of the infection is dependent, like the population density, contact rate, recovery rate, and intensity of the infection in the respective region. Looking at the great diversity in different geographic locations in India, we determined to calculate the basic reproduction number for all Indian districts based on the COVID-19 data till 7 July 2020. By preparing district-wise spatial distribution maps with the help of ArcGIS 10.2, the model was employed to show the effect of complete lockdown on the transmission rate of the COVID-19 infection in Indian districts. Moreover, with the model's transformation to the fractional ordered dynamical system, we found that the nature of the proposed SIR model is different for the different order of the systems. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is done graphically which forecasts the change in the transmission rate of COVID-19 infection with change in different parameters. In the numerical simulation section, oscillations and variations in the model compartments are shown for two different situations, with and without lockdown.


2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (08) ◽  
pp. 2050111
Author(s):  
Md. Enamul Hoque

The Susceptible, Infected and Recover (SIR) model is a very simple model to estimate the dynamics of an epidemic. In the current pandemic due to Covid-19, the SIR model has been used to estimate the dynamics of infection for various infected countries. Numerical solutions are used to obtain the value of parameters for the SIR model. The maximum and minimum basic reproduction number (14.5 and 2.3) are predicted to be in Turkey and China, respectively.


Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yutaka Okabe ◽  
Akira Shudo

This is a tutorial for the mathematical model of the spread of epidemic diseases. Beginning with the basic mathematics, we introduce the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Subsequently, we present the numerical and exact analytical solutions of the SIR model. The analytical solution is emphasized. Additionally, we treat the generalization of the SIR model including births and natural deaths.


Author(s):  
I. F. F. Dos Santos ◽  
G. M. A. Almeida ◽  
F. A. B. F. De Moura

We investigate the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Alagoas, northeast of Brazil, via an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamic recuperation and propagation rates. Input parameters are defined based on data made available by Alagoas Secretary of Health from April 19, 2020 on. We provide with the evolution of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and reproduce the historical series of the number of confirmed cases with less than [Formula: see text] error. We offer predictions, from November 16 forward, over the epidemic situation in the near future and show that it will keep decelerating. Furthermore, the same model can be used to study the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great easiness and accuracy.


Author(s):  
Balvinder Singh Gill ◽  
Vivek Jason Jayaraj ◽  
Sarbhan Singh ◽  
Sumarni Mohd Ghazali ◽  
Yoon Ling Cheong ◽  
...  

Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact (β), average number of contacts per day per case (ζ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day (q). The effective reproduction number (Rt) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that (β), (ζ), and (q) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (Rt) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce (ζ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.


2015 ◽  
Vol 138 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya I. Kudish ◽  
Sergey S. Volkov ◽  
Andrey S. Vasiliev ◽  
Sergey M. Aizikovich

Contacts of indentors with functionally graded elastic solids may produce pressures significantly different from the results obtained for homogeneous elastic materials (Hertzian results). It is even more so for heavily loaded line elastohydrodynamically lubricated (EHL) contacts. The goal of the paper is to indicate two distinct ways the functionally graded elastic materials may alter the classic results for the heavily loaded line EHL contacts. Namely, besides pressure, the other two main characteristics which are influenced by the nonuniformity of the elastic properties of the contact materials are lubrication film thickness and frictional stress/friction force produced by lubricant flow. The approach used for analyzing the influence of functionally graded elastic materials on parameters of heavily loaded line EHL contacts is based on the asymptotic methods developed earlier by the authors such as Kudish (2013, Elastohydrodynamic Lubrication for Line and Point Contacts: Asymptotic and Numerical Approaches, Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL), Kudish and Covitch (2010, Modeling and Analytical Methods in Tribology, Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL), Aizikovich et al. (2002, “Analytical Solution of the Spherical Indentation Problem for a Half-Space With Gradients With the Depth Elastic Properties,” Int. J. Solids Struct., 39(10), pp. 2745–2772), Aizikovich et al. (2009, “Bilateral Asymptotic Solution of One Class of Dual Integral Equations of the Static Contact Problems for the Foundations Inhomogeneous in Depth,” Operator Theory: Advances and Applications, Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, p. 317), Aizikovich and Vasiliev (2013, “A Bilateral Asymptotic Method of Solving the Integral Equation of the Contact Problem for the Torsion of an Elastic Halfspace Inhomogeneous in Depth,” J. Appl. Math. Mech., 77(1), pp. 91–97), Volkov et al. (2013, “Analytical Solution of Axisymmetric Contact Problem About Indentation of a Circular Indenter Into a Soft Functionally Graded Elastic Layer,” Acta Mech. Sin., 29(2), pp. 196–201), Vasiliev et al. (2014, “Axisymmetric Contact Problems of the Theory of Elasticity for Inhomogeneous Layers,” Z. Angew. Math. Mech., 94(9), pp. 705–712), Aizikovich et al. (2008, “The Deformation of a Half-Space With a Gradient Elastic Coating Under Arbitrary Axisymmetric Loading,” J. Appl. Math. Mech., 72(4), pp. 461–467), and Aizikovich et al. (2010, “Inverse Analysis for Evaluation of the Shear Modulus of Inhomogeneous Media in Torsion Experiments,” Int. J. Eng. Sci., 48(10), pp. 936–942). More specifically, it is based on the analysis of contact problems for dry contacts of functionally graded elastic solids and the lubrication mechanisms in the inlet and exit zones as well as in the central region of heavily loaded lubricated contacts. The way the solution of the EHL problem for coated/functionally graded materials is obtained provides a very clear structure of the solution. The solution of the EHL problem in the Hertzian region is very close to the solution of the dry contact problem while in the inlet and exit zones the solutions of the EHL problem with the right asymptotes coming from the solution of the dry contact problem can be related to the solutions of the classic EHL problem for homogeneous materials.


2016 ◽  
Vol 145 (2) ◽  
pp. 368-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. L. CHEN ◽  
R. C. LIU ◽  
F. M. CHEN ◽  
X. X. ZHANG ◽  
J. ZHAO ◽  
...  

SUMMARYOutbreaks of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) – a rapidly progressing and highly contagious infection – often occur in schools during summer and autumn. We used dynamic modelling to evaluate the efficacy of interventions to control AHC outbreaks in schools. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was built to simulate AHC outbreaks in Chinese schools, with isolation or school closure added into the model. We used outbreak data from the period 2004–2015 in our models to estimate the effective reproduction number and assess the efficacy of interventions. The median effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) of AHC outbreaks was 7·00 (range 1·77–25·87). The median effective reproduction number (controlled) of AHC outbreaks was 0·16 (range 0·00–2·28). Intervention efficacy is affected by the timing of isolation; earlier isolation is associated with a lower morbidity peak and smaller total attack rate (TAR). School closures were not effective; TARs were almost 100% and did not change even when different school closure durations were adopted. Isolation and school closure as a combined intervention strategy was used to simulate outbreak control, but the efficacy was the same as isolation alone. An isolation programme could be an effective primary intervention during AHC outbreaks in schools. However, school closure is not recommended.


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