scholarly journals A probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingdong Zang ◽  
Jianbing Peng ◽  
Nengxiong Xu ◽  
Zhijie Jia
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Mapping Procedure ◽  
Earth Fissure ◽  
Earth Fissures ◽  
Taiyuan Basin

AbstractEarth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people’s lives and properties. The Taiyuan Basin, a Cenozoic downfaulted basin located in the centre of the Fen-Wei Basin tectonic belt, in northwestern China, presents the ideal study area for a hazard assessment of earth fissures. A total of 104 earth fissures have been observed in the Taiyuan Basin, with a total length of approximately 128 km. In this paper, we proposed a probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the area under the curve (AUC), and the certainty factor model (CFM). Geomorphic units, geologic formations, active faults and land subsidence zones of the Taiyuan Basin were mapped in detail. Correlations between these factors and earth fissures were evaluated through spatial modelling in ArcGIS. The AUC was introduced into the AHP to weight each factor and thus, to derive an earth fissure susceptibility map. Finally, the modelled earth fissure susceptibility was compared with a digital inventory of earth fissures to develop a probability function and map the spatial variability in failure probability through the CFM. The study indicates that active faults have the greatest contribution to the generation of earth fissures. Earth fissures are prone to develop in the piedmont alluvial-diluvial clinoplain and the transitional zone near the geomorphic boundary. This mapping procedure can assist in making rational decisions regarding urban planning and infrastructure development in areas susceptible to earth fissures.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Amplification Effect of A Site with Earth Fissures: A Case Study in the Taiyuan Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiang Chang ◽  
Yahong Deng ◽  
Ge Cao ◽  
You Xuan ◽  
Nainan He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Response ◽  
Hanging Wall ◽  
Spectral Ratio ◽  
Earth Fissure ◽  
Amplification Effect ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
Earth Fissures ◽  
The Earth ◽  
A Site ◽  
Taiyuan Basin

Abstract As a widespread geological hazard, the disaster development process of earth fissures is irreversible and difficult to control, which seriously affects the construction and safe operation of engineering facilities. However, few clear conclusions and special regulations have been given regarding the influence of earth fissures on the dynamic response characteristics of a site and earthquake prevention and disaster reduction measures. Therefore, the microtremor was used instead of earthquake motions to reveal the dynamic response of a site with fissures. The earth fissures in the Taiyuan Basin, which exhibit a large amount of activity, were used as examples. In order to reveal the dynamic response from several aspects, four methods, including the Fourier spectrum, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR), the response acceleration, and the Arias intensity, were employed. The results show that the spectrum peaks increase sharply at an earth fissure and return to a stable value approximately 20–25 m away from the fissure, indicating that the earth fissures have an amplification effect on the dynamic response of the site. Additionally, a greater amplification occurs on the hanging wall of the earth fissure. The influence range of the dynamic response of site can be divided into four areas. Suggestions on the seismic fortification intensity and setback distances were also proposed. The amplification mechanism was summarized as the coupling of the changes in the soil properties caused by earth fissure activity, the catadioptric effect of the earth fissure interface, and the multiple amplifications caused by secondary fissures.

scholarly journals An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 713-726
Author(s):  
Mingdong Zang ◽  
Shengwen Qi ◽  
Yu Zou ◽  
Zhuping Sheng ◽  
Blanca S. Zamora
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
The United States ◽  
United States Geological Survey ◽  
Certainty Factor ◽  
Permanent Displacement ◽  
Mapping Procedure ◽  
Coseismic Landslides ◽  
Ludian Earthquake ◽  
Improved Performance

Abstract. Coseismic landslides can destroy buildings, dislocate roads, sever pipelines, and cause heavy casualties. It is thus important but challenging to accurately map the hazards posed by coseismic landslides. Newmark's method is widely applied to assess the permanent displacement along a potential slide surface and model the coseismic response of slopes. This paper proposes an improved Newmark analysis for mapping the hazards of coseismic landslides by considering the roughness and effect of the size of the potential slide surfaces. This method is verified by data from a case study on the 2014 Mw 6.1 (the United States Geological Survey) Ludian earthquake in Yunnan Province, China. Permanent displacements due to the earthquake ranged from 0 to 122 cm. The predicted displacements were compared with a comprehensive inventory of landslides triggered by the Ludian earthquake to map the spatial variation in the hazards of coseismic landslides using the certainty factor model. The confidence levels of coseismic landslides indicated by the certainty factors ranged from −1 to 0.95. A hazard map of the coseismic landslide was generated based on the spatial distribution of values of the certainty factor. A regression curve relating the predicted displacement and the certainty factor was drawn, and can be applied to predict the hazards of coseismic landslides for any seismic scenario of interest. The area under the curve was used to compare the improved and the conventional Newmark analyses, and revealed the improved performance of the former. This mapping procedure can be used to predict the hazards posed by coseismic landslides, and provide guidelines for decisions regarding the development of infrastructure and post-earthquake reconstruction.

scholarly journals An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingdong Zang ◽  
Shengwen Qi ◽  
Yu Zou ◽  
Zhuping Sheng ◽  
Blanca S. Zamora
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Improved Method ◽  
Permanent Displacement ◽  
Coseismic Landslides ◽  
Ludian Earthquake ◽  
Slide Surface ◽  
Improved Performance ◽  
Using Data

Abstract. Coseismic landslides have been responsible for destroyed buildings and structures, dislocated roads and bridges, cut off of pipelines and lifelines, and tens of thousands of deaths. Accurately mapping the hazards of coseismic landslides is an important and challenge work. Newmark's method is widely applied to assess the permanent displacement along a potential slide surface to determine the coseismic responses of the slope. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential slide surface-unloading joint, and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazard of coseismic landslides. The improved method is verified using data from a case study of the 2014 Mw 6.1 (USGS) Ludian earthquake in Yunnan Province, China. The permanent displacement yielded from this method range from 0 to 122 cm. Comparisons are made between the predicted displacements and a comprehensive inventory of landslides triggered by the Ludian earthquake to map the spatial variability using certainty factor model (CFM). Confidence levels of coseismic landslides indicated by certainty factors range from −1 to 0.95. A coseismic landslide hazard map is then produced based on the spatial distribution of the values of certainty factors. Area under the curve analysis is used to draw a comparison between the improved and conventional method of Newmark analysis, revealing the improved performance of the method presented in this paper. Such method can be applied to predict the hazard zone of the region and provide guidelines for making decisions regarding infrastructure development and post-earthquake reconstruction.

Liquefaction susceptibility maps for the Aqaba–Elat region with projections of future hazards with sea-level rise

2020 ◽  
pp. qjegh2020-039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdel-Rahman A. Abueladas ◽  
Tina M. Niemi ◽  
Abdallah Al-Zoubi ◽  
Gideon Tibor ◽  
Mor Kanari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Table ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Gulf Of Aqaba ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Borehole Data ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Liquefaction Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Maps

The cities of Aqaba, Jordan and Elat, Israel are vulnerable to seismic damage because they are built over the active faults of the Dead Sea Transform that are the source of historically destructive earthquakes. A liquefaction susceptibility map was generated for the Aqaba–Elat region. Borehole data from 149 locations and the water table depth were used to calculate effective overburden stress in the Seed–Idriss simplified method. The liquefaction analysis was based on applying a cyclic loading scenario with horizontal peak ground acceleration of 0.3 g in a major earthquake. The liquefaction map, compiled using a GIS platform, shows high and moderate liquefaction susceptibility zones along the northern coast of the Gulf of Aqaba that extend 800 m inland from the shoreline. In Aqaba, several hotels, luxury apartment complexes, archaeological sites, ports and commercial districts are located within high and moderate liquefaction zones. In Elat, the seaport and the coastal hotel district are located within a high susceptibility zone. Most residential areas, schools and hospitals in both cities are located within zones not susceptible to liquefaction based on the methods of this study. The total area with the potential to be liquefied along the Gulf of Aqaba is c. 10 km2. Given predictions for global sea-level, we ran three liquefaction models utilizing projected water table rises of 0.5, 1 and 2 m. These models yielded an increase in the area of high liquefaction ranging from 26 to 49%. Given the high potential of future earthquakes, our liquefaction susceptibility maps should help inform city officials for hazard mitigation planning.

scholarly journals Characterization of earth fissures in South Jiangsu, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 372 ◽  
pp. 249-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Ye ◽  
Y. Wang ◽  
J. Wu ◽  
P. Teatini ◽  
J. Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Earth Fissure ◽  
Aquifer System ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Earth Fissures ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Cumulative Length ◽  
Differential Land Subsidence

Abstract. The Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou (known as "Su-Xi-Chang") area, located in the southern part of Jiangsu Province, China, experienced serious land subsidence caused by overly exploitation of groundwater. The largest cumulative land subsidence has reached 3 m. With the rapid progress of land subsidence since the late 1980s, more than 20 earth fissures developed in Su-Xi-Chang area, although no pre-existing faults have been detected in the surroundings. The mechanisms of earth fissure generation associated with excessive groundwater pumping are: (i) differential land subsidence, (ii) differences in the thickness of the aquifer system, and (iii) bedrock ridges and cliffs at relatively shallow depths. In this study, the Guangming Village Earth Fissures in Wuxi area are selected as a case study to discuss in details the mechanisms of fissure generation. Aquifer exploitation resulted in a drop of groundwater head at a rate of 5–6 m yr−1 in the 1990s, with a cumulative drawdown of 40 m. The first earth fissure at Guangming Village was observed in 1998. The earth fissures, which developed in a zone characterized by a cumulative land subsidence of approximately 800 mm, are located at the flank of a main subsidence bowl with differential subsidence ranging from 0 to 1600 mm in 2001. The maximum differential subsidence rate amounts to 5 mm yr−1 between the two sides of the fissures. The fissure openings range from 30 to 80 mm, with a cumulative length of 1000 m. Depth of bed rock changes from 60 to 140 m across the earth fissure. The causes of earth fissure generation at Guangming Village includes a decrease in groundwater levels, differences in the thickness of aquifer system, shallow depths of bedrock ridges and cliffs, and subsequent differential land subsidence.

scholarly journals Landslide susceptibility mapping by using a geographic information system (GIS) along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (Karakoram Highway), Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 999-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sajid Ali ◽  
Peter Biermanns ◽  
Rashid Haider ◽  
Klaus Reicherter
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Geographic Information System ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Geographic Information ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Karakoram Highway

Abstract. The Karakoram Highway (KKH) is an important route, which connects northern Pakistan with Western China. Presence of steep slopes, active faults and seismic zones, sheared rock mass, and torrential rainfall make the study area a unique geohazards laboratory. Since its construction, landslides constitute an appreciable threat, having blocked the KKH several times. Therefore, landslide susceptibility mapping was carried out in this study to support highway authorities in maintaining smooth and hazard-free travelling. Geological and geomorphological data were collected and processed using a geographic information system (GIS) environment. Different conditioning and triggering factors for landslide occurrences were considered for preparation of the susceptibility map. These factors include lithology, seismicity, rainfall intensity, faults, elevation, slope angle, aspect, curvature, land cover and hydrology. According to spatial and statistical analyses, active faults, seismicity and slope angle mainly control the spatial distribution of landslides. Each controlling parameter was assigned a numerical weight by utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Additionally, the weighted overlay method (WOL) was employed to determine landslide susceptibility indices. As a result, the landslide susceptibility map was produced. In the map, the KKH was subdivided into four different susceptibility zones. Some sections of the highway fall into high to very high susceptibility zones. According to results, active faults, slope gradient, seismicity and lithology have a strong influence on landslide events. Credibility of the map was validated by landslide density analysis (LDA) and receiver operator characteristics (ROC), yielding a predictive accuracy of 72 %, which is rated as satisfactory by previous researchers.

scholarly journals A Hybrid GIS Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method for Flood Susceptibility Mapping at Shangyou, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Wang ◽  
Haoyuan Hong ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Shaojun Li ◽  
Dragan Pamučar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Hybrid Technique ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Flood Susceptibility ◽  
Flood Susceptibility Mapping

Floods are considered one of the most disastrous hazards all over the world and cause serious casualties and property damage. Therefore, the assessment and regionalization of flood disasters are becoming increasingly important and urgent. To predict the probability of a flood, an essential step is to map flood susceptibility. The main objective of this work is to investigate the use a novel hybrid technique by integrating multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic information system to evaluate flood susceptibility mapping (FSM), which is constructed by ensemble of decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), analytic network process, weighted linear combinations (WLC) and interval rough numbers (IRN) techniques in the case study at Shangyou County, China. Specifically, we improve the DEMATEL method by applying IRN to determine connections in the network structure based on criteria and to accept imprecisions during collective decision making. The application of IRN can eliminate the necessity of additional information to define uncertain number intervals. Therefore, the quality of the existing data during collective decision making and experts’ perceptions that are expressed through an aggregation matrix can be retained. In this work, eleven conditioning factors associated with flooding were considered and historical flood locations were randomly divided into the training (70% of the total) and validation (30%) sets. The flood susceptibility map validates a satisfactory consistency between the flood-susceptible areas and the spatial distribution of the previous flood events. The accuracy of the map was evaluated by using objective measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC). The AUC values of the proposed method coupling with the WLC fuzzy technique for aggregation and flood susceptibility index are 0.988 and 0.964, respectively, which proves that the WLC fuzzy method is more effective for FSM in the study area. The proposed method can be helpful in predicting accurate flood occurrence locations with similar geographic environments and can be effectively used for flood management and prevention.

scholarly journals A New Prediction Model Integrated Serum Lipid Profile for Patients with Multiple Myeloma

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huizhong Wang ◽  
Biyun Chen ◽  
Ruonan Shao ◽  
Wenjian Liu ◽  
Lang Xiong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Myeloma ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Staging System ◽  
Apolipoprotein A1 ◽  
Cancer Center ◽  
Lasso Regression ◽  
Apo B

Abstract This study aimed to explore a predictive risk-stratification model combing clinical characteristics and lipid profiles in multiple myeloma (MM) patients. The data of 275 patients in Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into the training (n = 138) and validation (n = 137) cohorts. Triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), Apolipoprotein B (Apo B) and Apo B / Apolipoprotein A1 (Apo A1) ratio were the prognostic factors identified through univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. A 6-prognostic factor model was constructed based on Lasso regression. Patients were divided into low- and high-risk groups and the former group showed longer overall survival (OS) time (p<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the risk score model for 5-and 10-year OS were 0.756 [95% CI: 0.661-0.850] and 0.940 [95% CI: 0.883-0.997], which exhibited better accuracy than International Staging System (ISS) and Durie and Salmon (DS) stage. The nomogram integrating ISS stage and risk score increased the prediction accuracy. The model can be used to help monitor the metabolic state and to establish primary prevention strategies to identify new therapeutic targets.

scholarly journals Financial aspects of transport infrastructure development in regions

2018 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. 02002
Author(s):  
Vyacheslav Bubnov ◽  
Yulia Bubnova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Railway Transport ◽  
Model Classification ◽  
Regional Market ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Selection Of

The level of economic development depends on many factors, among which infrastructure, including railway transport, is the key one. Financing of infrastructure-related projects on the regional level encourages economic growth. However, different level of overall development of subject of the Russian Federation causes inequality in the level of transport infrastructure development and makes common approach to its financing inapplicable. The necessity appears to build a model of financing for transport-related infrastructure with the use of statistical data and mathematical approach with the account of regional market peculiarities. Due to selection of indicators affecting economic growth and building parametric factor model, classification of financing on subfederal level was carried out, which makes it applicable for states with federal structure.

scholarly journals Soil Erosion Susceptibility Mapping in Kozetopraghi Catchment, Iran: A Mixed Approach Using Rainfall Simulator and Data Mining Techniques

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 368
Author(s):  
Abazar Esmali Ouri ◽  
Mohammad Golshan ◽  
Saeid Janizadeh ◽  
Artemi Cerdà ◽  
Assefa M. Melesse
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Rainfall Simulation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Adaptive Boosting

Soil erosion determines landforms, soil formation and distribution, soil fertility, and land degradation processes. In arid and semiarid ecosystems, soil erosion is a key process to understand, foresee, and prevent desertification. Addressing soil erosion throughout watersheds scales requires basic information to develop soil erosion control strategies and to reduce land degradation. To assess and remediate the non-sustainable soil erosion rates, restoration programs benefit from the knowledge of the spatial distribution of the soil losses to develop maps of soil erosion. This study presents Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) data mining models to map soil erosion susceptibility in Kozetopraghi watershed, Iran. A soil erosion inventory map was prepared from field rainfall simulation experiments on 174 randomly selected points along the Kozetopraghi watershed. In previous studies, this map has been prepared using indirect methods such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation to assess soil erosion. Direct field measurements for mapping soil erosion susceptibility have so far not been carried out in our study site in the past. The soil erosion rate data generated by simulated rainfall in 1 m2 plots at rainfall rate of 40 mmh−1 was used to develop the soil erosion map. Of the available data, 70% and 30% were randomly classified to calibrate and validate the models, respectively. As a result, the RF model with the highest area under the curve (AUC) value in a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (0.91), and the lowest mean square error (MSE) value (0.09), has the most concordance and spatial differentiation. Sensitivity analysis by Jackknife and IncNodePurity methods indicates that the slope angle is the most important factor within the soil erosion susceptibility map. The RF susceptibility map showed that the areas located in the center and near the watershed outlet have the most susceptibility to soil erosion. This information can be used to support the development of sustainable restoration plans with more accuracy. Our methodology has been evaluated and can be also applied in other regions.

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