scholarly journals Inter-provincial disparity of COVID-19 transmission and control in Nepal

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Buddhi Pantha ◽  
Subas Acharya ◽  
Hem Raj Joshi ◽  
Naveen K. Vaidya
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
National Level ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Local Spread ◽  
And Control

AbstractDespite the global efforts to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the disease transmission and the effective controls still remain uncertain as the outcome of the epidemic varies from place to place. In this regard, the province-wise data from Nepal provides a unique opportunity to study the effective control strategies. This is because (a) some provinces of Nepal share an open-border with India, resulting in a significantly high inflow of COVID-19 cases from India; (b) despite the inflow of a considerable number of cases, the local spread was quite controlled until mid-June of 2020, presumably due to control policies implemented; and (c) the relaxation of policies caused a rapid surge of the COVID-19 cases, providing a multi-phasic trend of disease dynamics. In this study, we used this unique data set to explore the inter-provincial disparities of the important indicators, such as epidemic trend, epidemic growth rate, and reproduction numbers. Furthermore, we extended our analysis to identify prevention and control policies that are effective in altering these indicators. Our analysis identified a noticeable inter-province variation in the epidemic trend (3 per day to 104 per day linear increase during third surge period), the median daily growth rate (1 to 4% per day exponential growth), the basic reproduction number (0.71 to 1.21), and the effective reproduction number (maximum values ranging from 1.20 to 2.86). Importantly, results from our modeling show that the type and number of control strategies that are effective in altering the indicators vary among provinces, underscoring the need for province-focused strategies along with the national-level strategy in order to ensure the control of a local spread.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in the Subcontinent: A Data Driven Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 889
Author(s):  
Bikash Chandra Singh ◽  
Zulfikar Alom ◽  
Haibo Hu ◽  
Mohammad Muntasir Rahman ◽  
Mrinal Kanti Baowaly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Critical Situation ◽  
Reproduction Numbers

Human civilization is experiencing a critical situation that presents itself for a new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This virus emerged in late December 2019 in Wuhan city, Hubei, China. The grim fact of COVID-19 is, it is highly contagious in nature, therefore, spreads rapidly all over the world and causes severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Responding to the severity of COVID-19 research community directs the attention to the analysis of COVID-19, to diminish its antagonistic impact towards society. Numerous studies claim that the subcontinent, i.e., Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, could remain in the worst affected region by the COVID-19. In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it is important to predict the trend of COVID-19 beforehand the planning of effective control strategies. Fundamentally, the idea is to dependably estimate the reproduction number to judge the spread rate of COVID-19 in a particular region. Consequently, this paper uses publicly available epidemiological data of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan to estimate the reproduction numbers. More specifically, we use various models (for example, susceptible infection recovery (SIR), exponential growth (EG), sequential Bayesian (SB), maximum likelihood (ML) and time dependent (TD)) to estimate the reproduction numbers and observe the model fitness in the corresponding data set. Experimental results show that the reproduction numbers produced by these models are greater than 1.2 (approximately) indicates that COVID-19 is gradually spreading in the subcontinent.

Monitoring, Diagnostics, and Prognostics for Robot Tool Center Accuracy Degradation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guixiu Qiao ◽  
Brian A. Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Test Methods ◽  
Component Level ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Robot Systems ◽  
Robot Performance ◽  
And Control ◽  
Constituent Elements

Over time, robots degrade because of age and wear, leading to decreased reliability and increasing potential for faults and failures; this negatively impacts robot availability. Economic factors motivate facilities and factories to improve maintenance operations to monitor robot degradation and detect faults and failures, especially to eliminate unexpected shutdowns. Since robot systems are complex, with sub-systems and components, it is challenging to determine these constituent elements’ specific influence on the overall system performance. The development of monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic technologies (collectively known as Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)), can aid manufacturers in maintaining the performance of robot systems by providing intelligence to enhance maintenance and control strategies. This paper presents the strategy of integrating top level and component level PHM to detect robot performance degradation (including robot tool center accuracy degradation), supported by the development of a four-layer sensing and analysis structure. The top level PHM can quickly detect robot tool center accuracy degradation through advanced sensing and test methods developed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The component level PHM supports deep data analysis for root cause diagnostics and prognostics. A reference data set is collected and analyzed using the integration of top level PHM and component level PHM to understand the influence of temperature, speed, and payload on robot’s accuracy degradation.

scholarly journals Global Stability and Optimal Control of Dengue with Two Coexisting Virus Serotypes

MATEMATIKA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 149-170
Author(s):  
Afeez Abidemi ◽  
Rohanin Ahmad ◽  
Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Boundary Equilibrium

This study presents a two-strain deterministic model which incorporates Dengvaxia vaccine and insecticide (adulticide) control strategies to forecast the dynamics of transmission and control of dengue in Madeira Island if there is a new outbreak with a different virus serotypes after the first outbreak in 2012. We construct suitable Lyapunov functions to investigate the global stability of the disease-free and boundary equilibrium points. Qualitative analysis of the model which incorporates time-varying controls with the specific goal of minimizing dengue disease transmission and the costs related to the control implementation by employing the optimal control theory is carried out. Three strategies, namely the use of Dengvaxia vaccine only, application of adulticide only, and the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide are considered for the controls implementation. The necessary conditions are derived for the optimal control of dengue. We examine the impacts of the control strategies on the dynamics of infected humans and mosquito population by simulating the optimality system. The disease-freeequilibrium is found to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction numbers associated with virus serotypes 1 and j (j 2 {2, 3, 4}), respectively, satisfy R01,R0j 1, and the boundary equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the related R0i (i = 1, j) is above one. It is shown that the strategy based on the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide helps in an effective control of dengue spread in the Island.

scholarly journals Homelessness and health needs in Wales

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiao Song ◽  
Charlotte Grey ◽  
Louise Woodfine ◽  
Alisha Davies
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Substance Misuse ◽  
National Level ◽  
Health Needs ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Study Cohort ◽  
Homeless Individual ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Routinely Collected Health Data ◽  
And Control

Background Public Health Wales developed its long-term strategy with the purpose of ‘Working to Achieve a Healthier Future for Wales’. This study is motivated by one of the strategic priorities, ‘Influencing the wider determinants of health’ with an emphasis on homelessness prevention. Main AimTo understand health needs of homeless health service users from routinely collected health data in Wales. To quantify the corresponding differences from general population. MethodsScoping work has completed collaborating with academic researchers, third sectors, clinical professionals, Office for National Statistics, and housing stats of Welsh Government. To construct study cohort, we will perform linkage exercise among Annual District Death Extract, Emergency Department Data Set, Outpatient Dataset for Wales, Patient Episode Database for Wales, Substance Misuse Data Set and Welsh Longitudinal General Practice dataset (from 2007 to 2018) stored in Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Study cohort includes all patients with an indication (i.e. clinical codes) of homelessness in their registration information and/or health records. We propose to adapt propensity score matching to construct matched case and control groups. This method will assign each homeless individual to individual without homeless flag with same or similar propensity score. We will then proceed to test for the significance of the homelessness and each health and wellbeing indicators (i.e. physical health, mental wellbeing and substance misuse) in the presence of confounders, and estimate the effects of homelessness on these indicators. ResultsThis study will demonstrate how linked data provide a more comprehensive review of the health needs of a vulnerable population, the homeless groups in Wales, and be able to explore changes over time. ConclusionThe relationship between homelessness and health issues is bi-directional. Findings from this study will have implications for health, housing, social, and homelessness policy at both local and national level; as well as contributing to the ability to providing tailored health services to targeted homeless populations groups.

scholarly journals The Role of Vertical Transmission in the Control of Dengue Fever

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 803 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Murillo ◽  
Anarina Murillo ◽  
Sunmi Lee
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Vertical Transmission ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Control Function ◽  
Infected Mosquito ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Endemic Strain

In this work, a two-strain dengue model with vertical transmission in the mosquito population is considered. Although vertical transmission is often ignored in models of dengue fever, we show that effective control of an outbreak of dengue can depend on whether or not the vertical transmission is a significant mode of disease transmission. We model the effect of a control strategy aimed at reducing human-mosquito transmissions in an optimal control framework. As the likelihood of vertical transmission increases, outbreaks become more difficult and expensive to control. However, even for low levels of vertical transmission, the additional, uncontrolled, transmission from infected mosquito to eggs may undercut the effectiveness of any control function. This is of particular importance in regions where existing control policies may be effective and the endemic strain does not exhibit vertical transmission. If a novel strain that does exhibit vertical transmission invades, then existing, formerly effective, control policies may no longer be sufficient. Therefore, public health officials should pay more attention to the role of vertical transmission for more effective interventions and policy.

scholarly journals Computational Model Informs Effective Control Interventions against Y. enterocolitica Co-Infection

Biology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 431
Author(s):  
Reihaneh Mostolizadeh ◽  
Andreas Dräger
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Immune System ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Model Organism ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Host Immune System ◽  
Gastrointestinal Infections ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Bacteria Growth ◽  
Host Immune Responses

The complex interplay between pathogens, host factors, and the integrity and composition of the endogenous microbiome determine the course and outcome of gastrointestinal infections. The model organism Yersinia entercolitica (Ye) is one of the five top frequent causes of bacterial gastroenteritis based on the Epidemiological Bulletin of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), 10 September 2020. A fundamental challenge in predicting the course of an infection is to understand whether co-infection with two Yersinia strains, differing only in their capacity to resist killing by the host immune system, may decrease the overall virulence by competitive exclusion or increase it by acting cooperatively. Herein, we study the primary interactions among Ye, the host immune system and the microbiota, and their influence on Yersinia population dynamics. The employed model considers commensal bacterial in two host compartments (the intestinal mucosa the and lumen), the co-existence of wt and mut Yersinia strains, and the host immune responses. We determine four possible equilibria: disease-free, wt-free, mut-free, and co-existence of wt and mut in equilibrium. We also calculate the reproduction number for each strain as a threshold parameter to determine if the population may be eradicated or persist within the host. We conclude that the infection should disappear if the reproduction numbers for each strain fall below one, and the commensal bacteria growth rate exceeds the pathogen’s growth rate. These findings will help inform medical control strategies. The supplement includes the MATLAB source script, Maple workbook, and figures.

scholarly journals Ungulate use of locally infectious zones in a re-emerging anthrax risk area

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 200246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morgan A. Walker ◽  
Maria Uribasterra ◽  
Valpa Asher ◽  
José Miguel Ponciano ◽  
Wayne M. Getz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Camera Traps ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Southwestern Montana ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Anthrax Spores ◽  
Causative Bacterium ◽  
And Control

Environmentally mediated indirect pathogen transmission is linked to host movement and foraging in areas where pathogens are maintained in the environment. In the case of anthrax, spores of the causative bacterium Bacillus anthracis are released into the environment following host death and create locally infectious zones (LIZs) around carcass sites; by grazing at LIZs, herbivores are potentially exposed to spores. Here, we used camera traps to assess how ungulate species use carcass sites in southwestern Montana and evaluated how these behaviours may promote indirect anthrax transmission, thus providing, to our knowledge, the first detailed documentation and study of the fine-scale mechanisms underlying foraging-based disease transmission in this ecosystem. We found that carcasses at LIZs significantly increased aboveground biomass of vegetation and concentrations of sodium and phosphorus, potentially making these sites more appealing to grazers. Host behavioural responses to LIZs varied depending on species, sex, season and carcass age; but, overall, our results demonstrated that carcasses or carcass sites serve as an attractant to herbivores in this system. Attraction to LIZs probably represents an increased risk of exposure to B. anthracis and, consequently, increased anthrax transmission rates. Accordingly, continued anthrax surveillance and control strategies are critical in this system.

scholarly journals Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (23) ◽  
pp. 4845
Author(s):  
Bipin Acharya ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Zengliang Ruan ◽  
Gobind Pant ◽  
Yin Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Scrub Typhus ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
National Level ◽  
Spatial Prediction ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Environmental Suitability ◽  
And Control

Being a globally emerging mite-borne zoonotic disease, scrub typhus is a serious public health concern in Nepal. Mapping environmental suitability and quantifying the human population under risk of the disease is important for prevention and control efforts. In this study, we model and map the environmental suitability of scrub typhus using the ecological niche approach, machine learning modeling techniques, and report locations of scrub typhus along with several climatic, topographic, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and proximity explanatory variables and estimated population under the risk of disease at a national level. Both MaxEnt and RF technique results reveal robust predictive power with test The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) of above 0.8 and 0.6, respectively. Spatial prediction reveals that environmentally suitable areas of scrub typhus are widely distributed across the country particularly in the low-land Tarai and less elevated river valleys. We found that areas close to agricultural land with gentle slopes have higher suitability of scrub typhus occurrence. Despite several speculations on the association between scrub typhus and proximity to earthquake epicenters, we did not find a significant role of proximity to earthquake epicenters in the distribution of scrub typhus in Nepal. About 43% of the population living in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus are at higher risk of infection, followed by 29% living in suitable areas of moderate-risk, and about 22% living in moderately suitable areas of lower risk. These findings could be useful in selecting priority areas for surveillance and control strategies effectively.

Growth, Reproductive Potential, and Control Strategies for Deeproot Sedge (Cyperus entrerianus)

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles T. Bryson ◽  
Richard Carter
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Field Study ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Growth Chamber ◽  
Chamber Studies ◽  
Growth Chamber Studies ◽  
And Control ◽  
Achene Production

Greenhouse, growth chamber, and field studies were conducted at Stoneville, MS, in 2000 to 2008, to determine the growth rate, reproductive and overwintering potential, and control of deeproot sedge. In growth chamber studies, deeproot sedge growth rate (ht) and plant dry wt were greatest at 25/35 C (night/day temperatures), when compared with regimes of 5/15, 15/25, and 20/30 C. Based on the average number of scales (fruiting sites per spikelet), spikelets per inflorescence, and culms per plant, deeproot sedge reproductive potential was 2.6-, 6.2-, and 17.4-fold greater than Surinam, green, and knob sedges, respectively. A single deeproot sedge plant produced an average of 85,500 achenes annually. Mowing at 15-cm ht weekly prevented achene production but did not kill deeproot sedge plants. The average number of inflorescences produced on mowed plants was 1.2 to 4 times greater in 2- and 1-yr-old deeproot sedge plants, respectively, when compared with unmowed plants. Mature deeproot sedge achenes were produced between monthly mowings. In a 3-yr field study, glyphosate, glufosinate, hexazinone, and MSMA provided more than 85% control of deeproot sedge, and above the soil, live deeproot sedge plant dry wt was reduced by 50, 64, 68, 72, 86, and 93% by dicamba, halosulfuron-methyl, MSMA, hexazinone, glufosinate, and glyphosate, respectively. All (100%) deeproot sedge plants 1 yr old or older overwintered at Stoneville, MS, at 33°N latitude.

scholarly journals The Influence of User Protection Behaviors on the Control of Internet Worm Propagation

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yihong Li ◽  
Jinxiao Pan ◽  
Lipeng Song ◽  
Zhen Jin
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Sis Model ◽  
Worm Propagation ◽  
Internet Worm ◽  
User Behaviors ◽  
New Findings ◽  
And Control ◽  
User Protection

Computer users’ reactions to the outbreak of Internet worm directly determine the defense capability of the computer and play an important role in the spread of worm. In this paper, in order to characterize the impacts of adaptive user protection behaviors, an improved SIS model is proposed to describe the Internet worm propagation. The results of theoretical analysis indicate that the protective campaigns of users can indeed reduce the worm’s reproduction number to values less than one. But it may not be sufficient to eradicate the worm. In certain condition, a backward bifurcation leading to bistability can occur. These are new findings in the worm propagation model that bring new challenges to control the spread of the worm and further demonstrate the importance of user behaviors in controlling the worm propagation. Corresponding to the analysis results, defense and control strategies are provided.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document