scholarly journals One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Morozova ◽  
Zehang Richard Li ◽  
Forrest W. Crawford
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Hospital Data ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Interpersonal Contact ◽  
Contact Frequency ◽  
One Year

AbstractTo support public health policymakers in Connecticut, we developed a flexible county-structured compartmental SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease progression. Our goals were to provide projections of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, and estimates of important features of disease transmission and clinical progression. In this paper, we outline the model design, implementation and calibration, and describe how projections and estimates were used to meet the changing requirements of policymakers and officials in Connecticut from March 2020 to February 2021. The approach takes advantage of our unique access to Connecticut public health surveillance and hospital data and our direct connection to state officials and policymakers. We calibrated this model to data on deaths and hospitalizations and developed a novel measure of close interpersonal contact frequency to capture changes in transmission risk over time and used multiple local data sources to infer dynamics of time-varying model inputs. Estimated epidemiologic features of the COVID-19 epidemic in Connecticut include the effective reproduction number, cumulative incidence of infection, infection hospitalization and fatality ratios, and the case detection ratio. We conclude with a discussion of the limitations inherent in predicting uncertain epidemic trajectories and lessons learned from one year of providing COVID-19 projections in Connecticut.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Outbreaks in Settings With Precarious Housing Conditions in Germany: Challenges and Lessons Learned

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth Zimmermann ◽  
Navina Sarma ◽  
Doris Thieme-Thörel ◽  
Katharina Alpers ◽  
Tanja Artelt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sequencing Analysis ◽  
Housing Conditions ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The City

Two COVID-19 outbreaks occurred in residential buildings with overcrowded housing conditions in the city of Göttingen in Germany during May and June 2020, when COVID-19 infection incidences were low across the rest of the country, with a national incidence of 2.6/100,000 population. The outbreaks increased the local incidence in the city of Göttingen to 123.5/100,000 in June 2020. Many of the affected residents were living in precarious conditions and experienced language barriers. The outbreaks were characterized by high case numbers and attack rates among the residents, many asymptomatic cases, a comparatively young population, and substantial outbreak control measures implemented by local authorities. We analyzed national and local surveillance data, calculated age-, and gender-specific attack rates and performed whole genome sequencing analysis to describe the outbreak and characteristics of the infected population. The authorities' infection control measures included voluntary and compulsory testing of all residents and mass quarantine. Public health measures, such as the general closure of schools and a public space as well as the prohibition of team sports at local level, were also implemented in the district to limit the outbreaks locally. The outbreaks were under control by the end of June 2020. We describe the measures to contain the outbreaks, the challenges experienced and lessons learned. We discuss how public health measures can be planned and implemented through consideration of the needs and vulnerabilities of affected populations. In order to avoid coercive measures, barrier-free communication, with language translation when needed, and consideration of socio-economic circumstances of affected populations are crucial for controlling infectious disease transmission in an outbreak effectively and in a timely way.

scholarly journals The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on California farmworkers: Better local data collection and reporting will improve strategic response

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 867-898
Author(s):  
Edward Kissam
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Health System ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
San Joaquin Valley ◽  
System Response ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Providing the public with relevant and reliable statistical information about the impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations is a crucial weapon in effective public health system response. This article examines the reporting challenges confronted by local public health agencies based on a case study of farmworker communities of the San Joaquin Valley, Eastern Coachella Valley, and Salinas Valley. The analysis includes a quantitative estimate of the impact COVID-19 has on farmworker households and highlights how socioeconomic factors and housing conditions give rise to health disparities. The importance of local data collection and reporting as the foundation for a national epidemiological tracking system is emphasized. Current shortcomings stemming from flawed national guidance and local political pressures are noted. The discussion includes detailed recommendation for improved reporting including: more systematic tabulations of available data, an expanded set of indicators to monitor public health system response, promising approaches to improve representativeness of test-derived data on COVID-19 by making it easier to access testing and support services, coupled with messaging to broaden farmworkers’ and other socio-politically marginalized populations’ willingness to seek testing. Understanding the challenges faced and lessons learned in the San Joaquin Valley region have practical implications for a wide range of countries.

National outbreaks of Salmonella infection in the UK, 2000–2011

2013 ◽  
Vol 142 (3) ◽  
pp. 601-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. HARKER ◽  
C. LANE ◽  
F. J. GORMLEY ◽  
G. K. ADAK
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Emerging Infections ◽  
Salmonella Infection ◽  
Case Control Studies ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Uk

SUMMARYOver a 12-year period, the Health Protection Agency's (now Public Health England's) Department of Gastrointestinal and Emerging Infections (GEZI) investigated over 100 potential national outbreaks of Salmonella enterica. These ranged from a cluster of cases requiring data interrogation and monitoring of the situation, to full blown case-control studies involving hundreds of interviews, many staff, multi-agency collaboration and the media. Vehicles of infection ranged from the usual suspects of chicken and eggs, to the less frequently implicated snake feed and chocolate. This has forced us to alter our preconceptions of disease transmission. The way in which GEZI investigate outbreaks and conduct case-control studies is constantly evolving as we learn and adapt to the changing aetiology of S. enterica. We present the findings and lessons learned during the last 12 years of investigating S. enterica outbreaks in England and Wales.

Periodic monitoring of vampire bats and rabies: a new framework for animal restoration projects in the Neotropics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Gonçalves ◽  
Daniel G. Streicker ◽  
Mauro Galetti
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Food Web Structure ◽  
Land Bridge ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Restoration Project ◽  
Vampire Bats

Nowadays, restoration project might lead to increased public engagement and enthusiasm for biodiversity and is receiving increased media attention in major newspapers, TED talks and the scientific literature. However, empirical research on restoration project is rare, fragmented, and geographically biased and long-term studies that monitor indirect and unexpected effects are needed to support future management decisions especially in the Neotropical area. Changes in animal population dynamics and community composition following species (re)introduction may have unanticipated consequences for a variety of downstream ecosystem processes, including food web structure, predator-prey systems and infectious disease transmission. Recently, an unprecedented study in Brazil showed changes in vampire bat feeding following a rewilding project and further transformed the land-bridge island into a high-risk area for rabies transmission. Due the lessons learned from ongoing project, we present a novel approach on how to anticipate, monitor, and mitigate the vampire bats and rabies in rewilding projects. We pinpoint a series of precautions and the need for long-term monitoring of vampire bats and rabies responses to rewilding projects and highlighted the importance of multidisciplinary teams of scientist and managers focusing on prevention educational program of rabies risk transmitted by bats. In addition, monitoring the relative abundance of vampire bats, considering reproductive control by sterilization and oral vaccines that autonomously transfer among bats would reduce the probability, size and duration of rabies outbreaks. The rewilding assessment framework presented here responds to calls to better integrate the science and practice of rewilding and also could be used for long-term studying of bat-transmitted pathogen in the Neotropical area as the region is considered a geographic hotspots of “missing bat zoonoses”.

Dealing with COVID-19: lessons learned from the Italian experience

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvana Mirella Aliberti ◽  
Francesco De Caro ◽  
Giovanni Boccia ◽  
Rosario Caruso ◽  
Mario Capunzo
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Coherent System ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Medical Practitioners ◽  
Italian Experience ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
Future Plans

: Italy was the first western nation affected by the pandemic and was observed as a pilot case in the management of the new coronavirus epidemic. The outbreak of COVID-19 disease has been very difficult in Italy, on June 25, 2020 there are 239,821 total cases of which 33,592 deaths nationwide. Three lessons emerged from this experience that can serve as a blueprint to improve future plans for the outbreak of viruses. First, early reports on the spread of COVID-19 can help inform public health officials and medical practitioners in effort to combat its progression; second, inadequate risk assessment related to the urgency of the situation and limited reporting to the virus has led the rapid spread of COVID-19; third, an effective response to the virus had to be undertaken with coherent system of actions and simultaneously.

Communicable and Other Infectious Diseases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Frischhut
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
European Union ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Ethical Perspective ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
And Control

This chapter discusses the most important features of EU law on infectious diseases. Communicable diseases not only cross borders, they also often require measures that cross different areas of policy because of different vectors for disease transmission. The relevant EU law cannot be attributed to one sectoral policy only, and thus various EU agencies participate in protecting public health. The key agency is the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Other important agencies include the European Environment Agency; European Food Safety Authority; and the Consumers, Health, Agriculture and Food Executive Agency. However, while integration at the EU level has facilitated protection of the public's health, it also has created potential conflicts among the different objectives of the European Union. The internal market promotes the free movement of products, but public health measures can require restrictions of trade. Other conflicts can arise if protective public health measures conflict with individual human rights. The chapter then considers risk assessment and the different tools of risk management used in dealing with the challenges of infectious diseases. It also turns to the external and ethical perspective and the role the European Union takes in global health.

scholarly journals Evolution of disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic: patterns and determinants

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Blanca Gallego
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEpidemic models are being used by governments to inform public health strategies to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They simulate potential scenarios by manipulating model parameters that control processes of disease transmission and recovery. However, the validity of these parameters is challenged by the uncertainty of the impact of public health interventions on disease transmission, and the forecasting accuracy of these models is rarely investigated during an outbreak. We fitted a stochastic transmission model on reported cases, recoveries and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 101 countries. The dynamics of disease transmission was represented in terms of the daily effective reproduction number ($$R_t$$ R t ). The relationship between public health interventions and $$R_t$$ R t was explored, firstly using a hierarchical clustering algorithm on initial $$R_t$$ R t patterns, and secondly computing the time-lagged cross correlation among the daily number of policies implemented, $$R_t$$ R t , and daily incidence counts in subsequent months. The impact of updating $$R_t$$ R t every time a prediction is made on the forecasting accuracy of the model was investigated. We identified 5 groups of countries with distinct transmission patterns during the first 6 months of the pandemic. Early adoption of social distancing measures and a shorter gap between interventions were associated with a reduction on the duration of outbreaks. The lagged correlation analysis revealed that increased policy volume was associated with lower future $$R_t$$ R t (75 days lag), while a lower $$R_t$$ R t was associated with lower future policy volume (102 days lag). Lastly, the outbreak prediction accuracy of the model using dynamically updated $$R_t$$ R t produced an average AUROC of 0.72 (0.708, 0.723) compared to 0.56 (0.555, 0.568) when $$R_t$$ R t was kept constant. Monitoring the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t during an epidemic is an important complementary piece of information to reported daily counts, recoveries and deaths, since it provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. Using updated $$R_t$$ R t values produces significantly better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found variation in the effect of early public health interventions on the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t over time and across countries, which could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions.

scholarly journals Mask-Ematics: Modeling the Effects of Masks in COVID-19 Transmission in High-Risk Environments

Epidemiologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-226
Author(s):  
Anthony Morciglio ◽  
Bin Zhang ◽  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
James M. Hyman ◽  
Yi Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Critical Mass ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Moderate Quality ◽  
Epidemic Size

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented burden on public health and strained the worldwide economy. The rapid spread of COVID-19 has been predominantly driven by aerosol transmission, and scientific research supports the use of face masks to reduce transmission. However, a systematic and quantitative understanding of how face masks reduce disease transmission is still lacking. We used epidemic data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship to calibrate a transmission model in a high-risk setting and derive the reproductive number for the model. We explain how the terms in the reproductive number reflect the contributions of the different infectious states to the spread of the infection. We used that model to compare the infection spread within a homogeneously mixed population for different types of masks, the timing of mask policy, and compliance of wearing masks. Our results suggest substantial reductions in epidemic size and mortality rate provided by at least 75% of people wearing masks (robust for different mask types). We also evaluated the timing of the mask implementation. We illustrate how ample compliance with moderate-quality masks at the start of an epidemic attained similar mortality reductions to less compliance and the use of high-quality masks after the epidemic took off. We observed that a critical mass of 84% of the population wearing masks can completely stop the spread of the disease. These results highlight the significance of a large fraction of the population needing to wear face masks to effectively reduce the spread of the epidemic. The simulations show that early implementation of mask policy using moderate-quality masks is more effective than a later implementation with high-quality masks. These findings may inform public health mask-use policies for an infectious respiratory disease outbreak (such as one of COVID-19) in high-risk settings.

scholarly journals Livestock movement informs the risk of disease spread in traditional production systems in East Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Divine Ekwem ◽  
Thomas A. Morrison ◽  
Richard Reeve ◽  
Jessica Enright ◽  
Joram Buza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Herd Size ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Transmission Distance ◽  
Risk Of Disease

AbstractIn Africa, livestock are important to local and national economies, but their productivity is constrained by infectious diseases. Comprehensive information on livestock movements and contacts is required to devise appropriate disease control strategies; yet, understanding contact risk in systems where herds mix extensively, and where different pathogens can be transmitted at different spatial and temporal scales, remains a major challenge. We deployed Global Positioning System collars on cattle in 52 herds in a traditional agropastoral system in western Serengeti, Tanzania, to understand fine-scale movements and between-herd contacts, and to identify locations of greatest interaction between herds. We examined contact across spatiotemporal scales relevant to different disease transmission scenarios. Daily cattle movements increased with herd size and rainfall. Generally, contact between herds was greatest away from households, during periods with low rainfall and in locations close to dipping points. We demonstrate how movements and contacts affect the risk of disease spread. For example, transmission risk is relatively sensitive to the survival time of different pathogens in the environment, and less sensitive to transmission distance, at least over the range of the spatiotemporal definitions of contacts that we explored. We identify times and locations of greatest disease transmission potential and that could be targeted through tailored control strategies.

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