scholarly journals Modeling of public transport waiting time indicator for the transport network of a large city

2018 ◽  
Vol 224 ◽  
pp. 04018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Lebedeva ◽  
Marina Kripak
Keyword(s):  
Waiting Time ◽  
Large City ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Weibull Function ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Bus Stops ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Expected Waiting Time

The need to develop and improve public passenger transport in major cities was noted. It was reflected that waiting time at bus stops is one of the factors that have a big impact on the passenger quality assessment of transport services. The results of an empirical study of the actual and anticipated waiting time at bus stops were given. It was noted that the reliability functions were used in the field of ride duration modeling, traffic restoration time after an accident, and length of making the decision to travel. The waiting time distribution functions using the lognormal function and the Weibull function were chosen. The results of modeling were objective, the dependent variables in it were the expected waiting time of passengers and the difference between the anticipated and the actual waiting time. The explanatory variables were sex, age, time period, purpose of the trip and the actual waiting time. The results of the research showed that the age, purpose of the trip and the time period influence the waiting time perception, prolong it and lead to its reassessment.

scholarly journals A Model of Stress Change under the First COVID-19 Pandemic among the General Public in Japanese Major Cities and Rural Areas

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1207
Author(s):  
Misato Uehara ◽  
Makoto Fujii ◽  
Kazuki Kobayashi
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Large City ◽  
Stress Change ◽  
Multiple Factor Analysis ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Private Research ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

Research on stress related to the COVID-19 pandemic has been dominated by the cases of healthcare workers, students, patients, and their stress during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examined the relationship between the amount of stress change under the COVID-19 pandemic and demographic factors (age, sex, occupation, etc.) in residents of a large city and a rural area of Japan. A total of 1331 valid responses were received in June 2020 from residents of Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagano registered with a private research firm. We were able to identify 15 statistically significant variables out of 36 explanatory variables, which explained the significant increase in stress compared to the pre-pandemic period. Multiple-factor analysis showed that the relationship with people is a more significant explanatory variable for the level of increase in stress than the difference in environment between big cities (Tokyo, Osaka) and rural areas (Nagano), the type of housing, and the decrease in income compared to the pre-pandemic period.

scholarly journals Modelling producer behaviour in fixed route private transport services

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Ishan Kashyap Hazarika ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Waiting Time ◽  
The Other ◽  
Single Type ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Round Trip ◽  
Actor Model ◽  
Negative Relation ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Rational Actor ◽  
Expected Waiting Time

Objectives: While fixed route private transport services have grown in prominence in the recent times, there is a dearth of models that specifically tackle pricing in it. The current study aims to model producer behaviour in this model, keeping in mind its peculiar physical characteristics. Methods: This study develops a rational-actor model of the behaviour of producers operating in this market. There is however, an added assumption of the heuristic of least perceptible difference to add behavioural realism to the model. Results: The predictions derived from the model developed in this study include repeated usage of a single type of round-trip for a non-zero interval of time, the convexity of expected-waiting time with respect to changes in prices and a negative relation between external (exogenous) demand at one-point of a path and the price charged at the other. Conclusion: Pricing in this market, due to physical factors, can exhibit unique features as modelled. Keywords: Private Transport; transport Pricing; producer behaviour in transport

scholarly journals An Integrated Bus Holding and Speed Adjusting Strategy Considering Passenger’s Waiting Time Perceptions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5529
Author(s):  
Weiya Chen ◽  
Hengpeng Zhang ◽  
Chunxiao Chen ◽  
Xiaofan Wei
Keyword(s):  
Waiting Time ◽  
Integrated Control ◽  
Control Point ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Service Reliability ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Passenger Demand ◽  
Bus Bunching ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Expected Waiting Time

To solve the problems of bus bunching and large gaps, this study combines bus holding and speed adjusting to alleviate them respectively considering the characteristics of passenger’s perceived waiting time. The difference between passenger’s perceived waiting time at stops and actual time is described quantitatively through the expected waiting time of passengers. Bus holding based on a threshold method is implemented at any stops for bunching buses, and speed adjusting based on a Markovian decision model is implemented at limited stops for lagging buses. Simulations based on real data of a bus route show that the integrated control strategy is able to improve the service reliability and to decrease passengers’ perceived waiting time at stops. Several insights have been uncovered through performance analysis: (1) The increase of holding control strength results in improvement of the headway regularity, and leads to a greater perceived waiting time though; (2) Compared to traveling freely, suitable speed guidance will not slow down the average cruising speed in the trip; (3) The scale of passenger demand and through passengers are the two key factors influencing whether a stop should be selected as a speed-adjusting control point.

scholarly journals Stochastic Comparisons of Some Distances between Random Variables

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 981
Author(s):  
Patricia Ortega-Jiménez ◽  
Miguel A. Sordo ◽  
Alfonso Suárez-Llorens
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Stochastic Ordering ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Stochastic Comparisons ◽  
Stochastic Orderings ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
The Difference

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we show that the expectation of the absolute value of the difference between two copies, not necessarily independent, of a random variable is a measure of its variability in the sense of Bickel and Lehmann (1979). Moreover, if the two copies are negatively dependent through stochastic ordering, this measure is subadditive. The second purpose of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions for comparing several distances between pairs of random variables (with possibly different distribution functions) in terms of various stochastic orderings. Applications in actuarial and financial risk management are given.

Extended two-dimensional belief function based on divergence measurement

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Jianping Fan ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
Meiqin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Belief Function ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Divergence Measure ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Belief Functions ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Supporting Degree

The two-dimensional belief function (TDBF = (mA, mB)) uses a pair of ordered basic probability distribution functions to describe and process uncertain information. Among them, mB includes support degree, non-support degree and reliability unmeasured degree of mA. So it is more abundant and reasonable than the traditional discount coefficient and expresses the evaluation value of experts. However, only considering that the expert’s assessment is single and one-sided, we also need to consider the influence between the belief function itself. The difference in belief function can measure the difference between two belief functions, based on which the supporting degree, non-supporting degree and unmeasured degree of reliability of the evidence are calculated. Based on the divergence measure of belief function, this paper proposes an extended two-dimensional belief function, which can solve some evidence conflict problems and is more objective and better solve a class of problems that TDBF cannot handle. Finally, numerical examples illustrate its effectiveness and rationality.

scholarly journals Comparison of Weibull Estimation Methods for Diverse Winds

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ferhat Bingöl
Keyword(s):  
Wind Farm ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Weibull Function ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Low Wind Speeds ◽  
Wind Distribution

Wind farm siting relies on in situ measurements and statistical analysis of the wind distribution. The current statistical methods include distribution functions. The one that is known to provide the best fit to the nature of the wind is the Weibull distribution function. It is relatively straightforward to parameterize wind resources with the Weibull function if the distribution fits what the function represents but the estimation process gets complicated if the distribution of the wind is diverse in terms of speed and direction. In this study, data from a 101 m meteorological mast were used to test several estimation methods. The available data display seasonal variations, with low wind speeds in different seasons and effects of a moderately complex surrounding. The results show that the maximum likelihood method is much more successful than industry standard WAsP method when the diverse winds with high percentile of low wind speed occur.

scholarly journals Large numbers of vertebrates began rapid population decline in the late 19th century

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (49) ◽  
pp. 14079-14084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haipeng Li ◽  
Jinggong Xiang-Yu ◽  
Guangyi Dai ◽  
Zhili Gu ◽  
Chen Ming ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Threatened Species ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Extinction Time ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The Difference

Accelerated losses of biodiversity are a hallmark of the current era. Large declines of population size have been widely observed and currently 22,176 species are threatened by extinction. The time at which a threatened species began rapid population decline (RPD) and the rate of RPD provide important clues about the driving forces of population decline and anticipated extinction time. However, these parameters remain unknown for the vast majority of threatened species. Here we analyzed the genetic diversity data of nuclear and mitochondrial loci of 2,764 vertebrate species and found that the mean genetic diversity is lower in threatened species than in related nonthreatened species. Our coalescence-based modeling suggests that in many threatened species the RPD began ∼123 y ago (a 95% confidence interval of 20–260 y). This estimated date coincides with widespread industrialization and a profound change in global living ecosystems over the past two centuries. On average the population size declined by ∼25% every 10 y in a threatened species, and the population size was reduced to ∼5% of its ancestral size. Moreover, the ancestral size of threatened species was, on average, ∼22% smaller than that of nonthreatened species. Because the time period of RPD is short, the cumulative effect of RPD on genetic diversity is still not strong, so that the smaller ancestral size of threatened species may be the major cause of their reduced genetic diversity; RPD explains 24.1–37.5% of the difference in genetic diversity between threatened and nonthreatened species.

scholarly journals A Sociolinguistic Study of Choosing Names for Newborn Children in Jordan

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abeer Harb Al-Qawasmi ◽  
Fawwaz Al-Abed Al-Haq
Keyword(s):  
Random Sample ◽  
Social Values ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Personal Names ◽  
The People ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Civil Status ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Different Cultures ◽  
Clear Change

<p>This study aims at the study of newborn names in Jordan of a sociolinguistic perspective. This study tries to detect the difference in naming newborns in Jordan over the decades - from the seventies to 2015 due to the result of some factors that may have affected the Jordanian society, whether historical, religious and/or social. The data necessary to complete the study was obtained from the Civil Status Department and the Department of Statistics. The data obtained consisted of names of both sexes during the time period from the seventies until the early year of 2015, a random sample of personal names within the same family were also provided. The data was analyzed quantitatively. The study revealed that there is a clear change in the choice of newborn names-male and female-in Jordan, whether a change in sounds or in morphemes. In specific, names during the seventies were strongly linked to the culture and the values, religious or social, in which the people believed in. During the eighties and nineties, names were associated with certain social values, however, some names were shown to be affected by urbanization or modernization. And with the beginning of 2000 up to 2015, peoples directions towards naming newborns changed due to the advent of globalization, associating with development and urbanization, and moreover, the influence of different cultures on the community.</p>

scholarly journals An alternative way to evaluate chemistry-transport model variability

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1199-1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Menut ◽  
Sylvain Mailler ◽  
Bertrand Bessagnet ◽  
Guillaume Siour ◽  
Augustin Colette ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Temporal Correlations ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
Spatial Locations ◽  
Statistical Indicators

Abstract. A simple and complementary model evaluation technique for regional chemistry transport is discussed. The methodology is based on the concept that we can learn about model performance by comparing the simulation results with observational data available for time periods other than the period originally targeted. First, the statistical indicators selected in this study (spatial and temporal correlations) are computed for a given time period, using colocated observation and simulation data in time and space. Second, the same indicators are used to calculate scores for several other years while conserving the spatial locations and Julian days of the year. The difference between the results provides useful insights on the model capability to reproduce the observed day-to-day and spatial variability. In order to synthesize the large amount of results, a new indicator is proposed, designed to compare several error statistics between all the years of validation and to quantify whether the period and area being studied were well captured by the model for the correct reasons.

Reliability-based covariate analysis for complex systems in heterogeneous environment: Case study of mining equipment

2018 ◽  
Vol 233 (4) ◽  
pp. 593-604
Author(s):  
Amin Moniri-Morad ◽  
Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad ◽  
Hamid Aghababaei ◽  
Javad Sattarvand
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Reliability Evaluation ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Heterogeneous Environment ◽  
Mining Equipment ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Impact

Operational heterogeneity and harsh environment lead to major variations in production system performance and safety. Traditional probabilistic model is dealt with time-to-event data analysis, which does not have the capability of quantifying and simulation of these types of complexities. This research proposes an integrated methodology for analyzing the impact of dominant explanatory variables on the complex system reliability. A flexible parametric proportional hazards model is developed by focusing on standard parametric Cox regression model for reliability evaluation in complex systems. To achieve this, natural cubic splines are utilized to create a smooth and flexible baseline hazards function where the standard parametric distribution functions do not fit into the failure data set. A real case study is considered to evaluate the reliability for multi-component mechanical systems such as mining equipment. Different operational and environmental explanatory variables are chosen for the analysis process. Research findings revealed that precise estimation of the baseline hazards function is a major part of the reliability evaluation in heterogeneous environment. It is concluded that an appropriate maintenance strategy potentially mitigate the equipment failure intensity.

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