Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between ‘Intelligence Failure’ and ‘Warning Failure’

Author(s):  
Jan Goldman
2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (02) ◽  
pp. 456-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Colgan

ABSTRACTGender diversity is good for the study of international relations (IR) and political science. Graduate training is an opportunity for scholars to affect the demographics of their field and the gendered practices within it. This article presents a first-cut investigation of the degree to which gender bias exists in graduate IR syllabi. The author found that the gender of the instructor for graduate courses matters significantly for what type of research is taught, in two ways. First, on average, female instructors assign significantly more research by female authors than male instructors. Second, women appear to be considerably more reluctant than men about assigning their own research as required readings. Some but not all of the difference between male- and female-taught courses might be explained by differences in course composition.


The first chapter serves as an introduction to international political communication and associated terms. It dwells upon the difference of political communication in international relations and international political communication, also showing the functions and typology of the phenomenon, focusing especially on how connected international political communication is to media and how this connection further intensifies with time due to globalization processes and technological advancements of last few decades. Among the objectives attempted by the chapter is to introduce the reader to all crucial concepts of international political communication before moving in swiftly to its relation with universal codes of media in the very next chapter.


Author(s):  
Ronald B. Mitchell

International lawyers and legal scholars often assess the effects of international environmental agreements (IEAs) in terms of the extent to which states comply with their commitments. International relations scholars tend to examine IEA effects through a broader set of questions. They are concerned with any behavioural or environmental changes that can be attributed to an IEA – whether these changes involve compliance or not and regardless of whether these changes were desired, unintended, or even perverse. International relations scholars also focus on the reasons why states change their behaviour and what aspects, if any, of an IEA explain those behavioural changes. To see the difference between these approaches, consider four categories of behaviour: treaty-induced compliance, coincidental compliance, good faith non-compliance, and intentional non-compliance. This article reviews the theoretical terrain and shows that nominally ‘competing’ perspectives have different insights to offer those seeking to improve the practice of international environmental law.


2020 ◽  
pp. 096834451989872
Author(s):  
Zhongtian Han

Despite the common perception that British intelligence succeeded in preventing surprise before the Imphal–Kohima battle, this study shows that British assessment of Japanese intentions before the battle was in fact extremely ambivalent. It argues that the difference between British and Japanese strategic cultures was the key to explain British intelligence failure. Because of the two different strategic cultures, the British could not understand the dynamics of Japanese strategic planning and Japan’s offensive political objective against India. These findings suggest that despite improvement in technology and organization, diverging strategic cultures of different opponents will likely remain a major challenge to future intelligence.


Author(s):  
Alexander Bukh

This chapter summarizes the findings of this book. It draws a number of conclusions regarding the factors that spur the emergence of territorial disputes—related national identity entrepreneurship, and analyzes the factors that account for the difference in the social reception of the narratives in the respective societies. It also outlines the implications of these case studies for our understanding of the social construction of a disputed territory and for the broader constructivist International Relations literature on national identity.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Monheim

Management of a multilateral negotiation has frequently played a crucial role in developing global regimes but is often ignored in International Relations theory. The long-awaitedunclimate summit in Copenhagen, for example, broke down in 2009 but negotiations reached agreement one year later in Cancún. This article argues that power and interests remained largely constant between Copenhagen and Cancún, and that significantly altered negotiation management by the host government and theunexplains much of the difference. An analytical framework is presented to address whether and how the management of a multilateral negotiation by the organizers increases or decreases the probability of agreement. The empirical focus is on the Danish and Mexican Presidencies of climate negotiations, with extensive evidence from participant observation and 55 interviews with senior negotiators, high-levelunofficials, and lead organizers. The argument adds to the scholarship on regime development by complementing structural with process analysis.


1924 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Harry A. Garfield

It used to be said by a certain learned professor opposed to departure from old and familiar paths, “Gentlemen, all progress is change, but not all change is progress.”In every department of human affairs, in every quarter of the civilized world, the contrast between conditions in the late eighties and the present time is amazing—not conditions only but the difference in attitudes, in beliefs, in human relations. We may well ask ourselves, Whither? Certainly it is incumbent upon us to consider the character of these changes—whether they are making for progress—and what steps we are taking or can take to meet them. I ask you to consider with me two aspects of this question, one affecting industrial and the other international relations. In each case the proposals heretofore offered to meet the situation appear to fall into one of two categories, the first mechanistic, the second educative; the first, an attempt to meet a new situation by introducing new devices of control; the second by a process of education to modify or change men's attitude and belief.


2019 ◽  
pp. 42-53
Author(s):  
Taras CHUGUJ ◽  

Background: the issue of the study of Rus’-Polish relations in the context of the struggle of Danylo and Vasylko Romanoviches for the paternal heritage is important at the present stage of the development of the historical research. Interstate relations between Rus’ and Poland in the first half of the 13th century need extensive analysis for finding out their peculiarities. Purpose: to objectively cover the peculiarities of the international relations of Rus’ and Poland during the Romanoviches’ struggle for the paternal inheritance in 1205–1245. For this it is necessary to consider topical issues of the Rus’-Polish relations, to analyze the discussion aspects of the policy of the Polish princes concerning the Volyn and Galicia lands, to determine the peculiarities of the interstate relations of Rus’, Poland, Hungary and the Golden Horde. Results: Rus’-Polish relations of the times of Danylo and Vasylko Romanoviches’ struggle for paternal heritage were complicated. Chronologically there are several periods: the first – 1205–1227, the second – 1227–1235, and the third – 1235–1245. If during the first period the political dependence of the young Danylo and Vasylko on the experienced Leshko Bilyi was observed, then after the death of prince of Little Poland, during the second period, the Romanoviches became allies of Conrad I. When the prince of Mazovia decided to support Mikhailo Vsevolodovich in the fight for Galych the third period began. The alternation of peaceful, hostile and allied relations between the rulers of Rus’ and Poland is common to all the three periods. The difference is that there was a change in the political priorities of the Polish princes depending on the changes in the position of Danylo and Vasylko. The victory of the Romanoviches in the Yaroslav battle in 1245 was a logical finish of the forty-years struggle of Roman Mstislavoviches’ sons for their father’s inheritance. Key words: Rus’-Polish relations, Volyn land, Galych land, Danylo Romanovich, Vasylko Romanovich, Leshko Bilyi, Konrad I Mazowiecki.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-299
Author(s):  
Alejandro Agudo Sanchíz

Within the discipline of anthropology, the tension between persisting quests for ‘difference’ and historically holistic approaches to interdependence is most evident in current debates on statehood. In various ways, these debates engage with and expand political anthropology’s old concern with the articulation between different forms of politics and social organization. A latent reference point for these debates is the concept of the state as a development away from kin-based, egalitarian societies and towards rational and functional forms of rule. In this article, I examine how the diverse dualisms associated with this view travel across different scholarly settings and are used to articulate various academic and political agendas. This is illustrated by convergence between recent anthropological imaginings of ‘stateless societies’ and the explanations for political order in areas of ‘limited statehood’ sought in international relations. Nevertheless, these notions have been challenged by studies of processes within globally interrelated social histories, structured contingency and the concurrence of diverse logics of action, pointing to the entanglement of kinship, territoriality and other modes of social organization. More significantly still, these approaches provide an alternative way of theorizing dualisms, showing that the difference and autonomy they attribute to particular realms are not given, but produced through relational processes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 312-331
Author(s):  
Ali Muamar Farhat

Islamic law stipulated the principles which regulate the relations between Individuals within their countries and externally with the other countries. These principles include the principles of human rights and sovereignty. This study tackles the idea of establishing the balance between the Islamic system and international law by identifying their similarities and differences within the framework of the principles of both the human rights and the sovereignty. The study aimed to identify the rich Islamic rules in the field of international relations, clarify the concept of human rights and the theory of sovereignty in the Islamic system and international law, highlight the rules of the Islamic system in this area, and prove the complementarities and convergence, as well as difference and similarity with international law. The researcher adopted the descriptive analytical method to give a full description of the two principles of human rights and sovereignty in the Islamic system and international law. He concluded with the most important results that the Islamic system has the lead in the adoption of these principles and abidance by them, before the international law. The Islamic system is similar to international law in the context of human rights and the need to protect them and also the implications of rights in general international law, both at the levels of political, economic, social or cultural rights. The only difference lies in the fact that the Islamic system emanates from the rules of Islamic sharia’s teachings and values whereas the international law considers the society the source of rights. As to sovereignty, the study confirmed that the theory of sovereignty is well known in the Islamic system, and that this principle represents one of the basic rules organizing relations between individuals and states equally, but the difference lies in the frame of reference of the Islamic system and the International law. In the Islamic system, the organizing rules refer to the Islamic Shariah whereas in the International law, there is relation between religion with those rules.  


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