Supplementary feeding options to alleviate the impacts of decreased water availability on dairy-farm economic performance in northern Victoria

2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 194 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. K. M. Ho ◽  
B. Malcolm ◽  
P. T. Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Milk Production ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Policy ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Feed System ◽  
Supplementary Feed ◽  
Farm System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Variable Water

The anticipated effects of climate change, competing demands from the environment, industry and urban users, and changes in water policy are likely to reduce the amount and increase the variability of water allocations to dairy farmers in northern Victoria. The way two irrigated dairy farms that differed in feedbase characteristics, herd size and farm area, would operate and perform with reduced and more variable water allocations was examined over 10 years. Strategies to manage the impact of changed water availability were tested; namely, increasing milk production by feeding more supplementary feed, changing the feed system to present supplements in a partial mixed ration (PMR), and increasing milk production by using a PMR. Neither farm was profitable under medium climate change, or if the conditions that generated the low inflows of water into irrigation supply dams between 1996–97 and 2006–07 prevailed, unless changes were made to the farm system. Feeding supplements in a well formulated mixed ration have the potential to increase the efficiency of metabolisable energy use and offers the opportunity to increase feed intake and milk production. A PMR system enabled one of the farms to maintain and increase profit under medium climate change conditions; however, risk, measured as variability in profit, also increased. Under more severe reductions in water availability, neither of the farms examined was profitable over the run of years. Changes to the farm system other than feeding additional supplementary feed to increase milk production and/or using a PMR system, would be needed to counteract the effects of reduced and more variable water availability and maintain profit.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on the Value of Growing Maize as a Biofuel

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-26
Author(s):  
Sally Olasogba ◽  
Les DUCKERS
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Footprint ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Farm Management ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract: Aim: According to COP23, Climate Change threatens the stability of the planet’s ecosystems, with a tipping point believed to be at only +2°C.  With the burning of fossil fuels, held responsible for the release of much of the greenhouse gases, a sensible world- wide strategy is to replace fossil fuel energy sources with renewable ones. The renewable resources such as wind, hydro, geothermal, wave and tidal energies are found in particular geographical locations whereas almost every country is potentially able to exploit PV and biomass. This paper examines the role that changing climate could have on the growing and processing of biomass. The primary concern is that future climates could adversely affect the yield of crops, and hence the potential contribution of biomass to the strategy to combat climate change. Maize, a C4 crop, was selected for the study because it can be processed into biogas or other biofuels. Four different Nigerian agricultural zones growing maize were chosen for the study. Long-term weather data was available for the four sites and this permitted the modelling of future climates. Design / Research methods: The results of this study come from modelling future climates and applying this to crop models. This unique work, which has integrated climate change and crop modelling to forecast yield and carbon emissions, reveals how maize responds to the predicted increased temperature, change in rainfall, and the variation in weather patterns. In order to fully assess a biomass crop, the full energy cycle and carbon emissions were estimated based on energy and materials inputs involved in farm management: fertilizer application, and tillage type. For maize to support the replacement strategy mentioned above it is essential that the ratio of energy output to energy input exceeds 1, but of course it should be as large as possible. Conclusions / findings: Results demonstrate that the influence of climate change is important and in many scenarios, acts to reduce yield, but that the negative effects can be partially mitigated by careful selection of farm management practices. Yield and carbon footprint is particularly sensitive to the application rate of fertilizer across all locations whilst climate change is the causal driver for the increase in net energy and carbon footprint at most locations. Nonetheless, in order to ensure a successful strategic move towards a low carbon future, and sustainable implementation of biofuel policies, this study provides valuable information for the Nigerian government and policy makers on potential AEZs to cultivate maize under climate change. Further research on the carbon footprint of alternative bioenergy feedstock to assess their environmental carbon footprint and net energy is strongly suggested. Originality / value of the article: This paper extends the review on the impact of climate change on maize production to include future impacts on net energy use and carbon footprint using a fully integrated assessment framework. Most studies focus only on current farm energy use and historical climate change impact on farm GHG emissions.   

scholarly journals Variability of the water availability in a river lake system – A case study of Lake Symsar

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela B. Kuriata-Potasznik ◽  
Sławomir Szymczyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Retention ◽  
Water Exchange ◽  
Water Losses ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Lake System ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIt is predicted that climate change will result in the diminution of water resources available both on global and regional scales. Local climate change is harder to observe and therefore, while counteracting its effects, it seems advisable to undertake studies on pertinent regional and local conditions. In this research, our aim was to assess the impact of a river and its catchment on fluctuations in the water availability in a natural lake which belongs to a post-glacial river and lake system. River and lake systems behave most often like a single interacting hydrological unit, and the intensity of water exchange in these systems is quite high, which may cause temporary water losses. This study showed that water in the analyzed river and lake system was exchanged approx. every 66 days, which resulted from the total (horizontal and vertical) water exchange. Also, the management of a catchment area seems to play a crucial role in the local water availability, as demonstrated by this research, where water retention was favoured by wooded and marshy areas. More intensive water retention was observed in a catchment dominated by forests, pastures and wetlands. Wasteland and large differences in the land elevation in the tested catchment are unfavourable to water retention because they intensify soil evaporation and accelerate the water run-off outside of the catchment. Among the actions which should be undertaken in order to counteract water deficiencies in catchment areas, rational use and management of the land resources in the catchment are most often mentioned.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria C. Okafor ◽  
Kingsley N. Ogbu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

scholarly journals The physiology of drought stress in grapevine: towards an integrative definition of drought tolerance

2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (16) ◽  
pp. 4658-4676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory A Gambetta ◽  
Jose Carlos Herrera ◽  
Silvina Dayer ◽  
Quishuo Feng ◽  
Uri Hochberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Stress ◽  
Drought Tolerance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Fruit Crop ◽  
Crop Varieties ◽  
Drought Tolerant ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Water availability is arguably the most important environmental factor limiting crop growth and productivity. Erratic precipitation patterns and increased temperatures resulting from climate change will likely make drought events more frequent in many regions, increasing the demand on freshwater resources and creating major challenges for agriculture. Addressing these challenges through increased irrigation is not always a sustainable solution so there is a growing need to identify and/or breed drought-tolerant crop varieties in order to maintain sustainability in the context of climate change. Grapevine (Vitis vinifera), a major fruit crop of economic importance, has emerged as a model perennial fruit crop for the study of drought tolerance. This review synthesizes the most recent results on grapevine drought responses, the impact of water deficit on fruit yield and composition, and the identification of drought-tolerant varieties. Given the existing gaps in our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying grapevine drought responses, we aim to answer the following question: how can we move towards a more integrative definition of grapevine drought tolerance?

scholarly journals AI-Based Campus Energy Use Prediction for Assessing the Effects of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soheil Fathi ◽  
Ravi S. Srinivasan ◽  
Charles J. Kibert ◽  
Ruth L. Steiner ◽  
Emre Demirezen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Energy Use Prediction ◽  
Campus Energy ◽  
The Impact

In developed countries, buildings are involved in almost 50% of total energy use and 30% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions. The operational energy needs of buildings are highly dependent on various building physical, operational, and functional characteristics, as well as meteorological and temporal properties. Besides physics-based energy modeling of buildings, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the capability to provide faster and higher accuracy estimates, given buildings’ historic energy consumption data. Looking beyond individual building levels, forecasting building energy performance can help city and community managers have a better understanding of their future energy needs, and to plan for satisfying them more efficiently. Focusing at an urban scale, this research develops a campus energy use prediction tool for predicting the effects of long-term climate change on the energy performance of buildings using AI techniques. The tool comprises four steps: Data Collection, AI Development, Model Validation, and Model Implementation, and can predict the energy use of campus buildings with 90% accuracy. We have relied on energy use data of buildings situated in the University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida (FL). To study the impact of climate change, we have used climate properties of three future weather files of Gainesville, FL, developed by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), represented based on their impact: median (year 2063), hottest (2057), and coldest (2041).

Water-Related Tools for Climate Change Adaptation in the Flemish Region: The Art of Linking Water Quality Standards to Spatial Planning

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 287-301
Author(s):  
Peter De Smedt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Framework Directive ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Water Policy ◽  
Quality Standards ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Water Quality Standards ◽  
Environmental Objectives ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) establishes a framework for integrated water management and functions as a major legal frame for the protection of water bodies in Europe. In the Flemish Region the Directive has been implemented by the Decree of 18 July 2003 on Integral Water Policy. As climate change affects the quality and quantity status of water bodies, the question arises whether the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Flemish implementation legislation are well-suited to handle climate change impacts. Although climate change concerns are not explicitly incorporated in the text of the WFD and the Flemish Decree, this author believes that the main components for an effective adaptation strategy are included in the above mentioned legislation. More in particular, this is achieved by the environmental objectives which have to be elaborated in environmental quality standards (EQS) on the one hand, and the integrated approach on the other hand. Water quality management on the basis of a high level of protection of the aquatic environment is indispensable for adapting to climate change, as ecosystem-based adaptation is most cost-effective. Therefore spatial planning should integrate water quality concerns, as spatial planning may be critical for spatial quality and more specific for the achievement of the environmental objectives. Consequently this contribution focuses on the impact of water quality standards on permit decision-making and spatial planning. In this context some legal instruments anchored in the Flemish legislation on integral water policy will be highlighted, especially the 'watertoets' (translated as the water checkup), which may be useful to facilitate adaptation to climate change.

scholarly journals Design and Application of Cellular Concrete on a Mexican Residential Building and Its Influence on Energy Savings in Hot Climates: Projections to 2050

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (22) ◽  
pp. 8225
Author(s):  
Ana C. Borbon-Almada ◽  
Jorge Lucero-Alvarez ◽  
Norma A. Rodriguez-Muñoz ◽  
Manuel Ramirez-Celaya ◽  
Samuel Castro-Brockman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Energy Savings ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Dynamic Simulations ◽  
Conventional Concrete ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cellular Concrete

The thermal performance of economical housing located in hot climates remains a pending subject, especially in emerging economies. A cellular concrete mixture was designed, considering its thermophysical properties, to apply the new material into building envelopes. The proposed materials have low density and thermal conductivity to be used as a nonstructural lightweight construction element. From the design stage, a series of wall systems based on cellular concrete was proposed. Whereas in the second phase, the materials were analyzed to obtain the potential energy savings using dynamic simulations. It is foreseen that the energy consumption in buildings located in these climates will continue to increase critically due to the temperature increase associated with climate change. The temperatures predicted mean vote (PMV), electric energy consumption, and CO2 emissions were calculated for three IPCC scenarios. These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the energy use of the houses built under these weather conditions. The results show that if the conventional concrete blocks continue to be used, the air conditioning energy requirements will increase to 49% for 2030 and 61% by 2050. The proposed cellular concrete could reduce energy consumption between 15% and 28%, and these saving rates would remain in the future. The results indicate that it is necessary to drive the adoption of lightweight materials, so the impact of energy use on climate change can be reduced.

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