Evaluating an interpolation approach for modelling spatial variability in pest development

2002 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.H. Jarvis ◽  
R.H. Collier

AbstractAir temperatures estimated by partial thin plate spline interpolation, or from the ‘nearest station’ (Voronoi polygon method), were used to model the phenology of three pests of horticultural crops throughout England and Wales. Temperatures for a particularly hot (1976) and a particularly cold (1986) year were interpolated to a grid resolution of 1 km. Estimates were made of the timing of spring emergence (Cecidophyopsis ribis (Westwood)), the maximum number of generations completed during the summer (Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus)) and the numbers of days when mating was possible (Merodon equestris (Fabricius)). The relative accuracy of the two temperature estimation methods was compared using jack-knife cross-validation. For C. ribis and P. xylostella, modelling with interpolated temperature input data was more accurate than using data from the ‘nearest station’. Of the three phenology models used, the one that relied on an activity threshold (M. equestris) was the most sensitive to both types of input data. Spatial variability in the activity of M. equestris adults was investigated in the two main areas (south-west peninsula and Lincolnshire) where its host crop (Narcissus) is grown. Modelling at cruder scales (up to 25*25 km) masked local variation, but the degree to which this was important varied from region to region and over time, as did the geography of the variability itself. The results indicate that interpolated data, computed to a resolution of 1 km using the UK synoptic network, have the potential for wider use within agricultural decision support systems for horticultural crops.


Modern Italy ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 237-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Sassatelli

As urbanisation has come to characterise contemporary societies, large cities have become quite ambivalent places for the human species: they are removing the human body from its perceived natural condition, while increasingly attempting to provide a cure for the ills of a sedentary life. Fitness gyms are presented as the ‘natural' solution to our ‘unnatural' lifestyle as urban dwellers and as a therapeutic fix to the ills of metropolitan living. This paper deploys a mix of qualitative methods (ethnographic observation, interviews and discourse analysis) to explore fitness culture as an urban phenomenon. Using data from Italy and the UK, it develops a micro-sociology of the spatiality of the gym that helps to approach this institution from within, deconstructing those claims which contribute to its cultural location as a key ingredient in contemporary urban lifestyles. The paper first looks at how fitness culture is negotiated through the marshalling of structured variety within the spatiality and temporality of gyms. It then explores the specificity of fitness as urban, instrumental leisure as compared with other forms of active recreation or sports available in urban contexts. It finally considers, on the one hand, the way in which fitness activities are continuously renovated, drawing on the fields of both sport and popular culture and, on the other, the kind of subjectivity and embodiment that fitness culture normatively sustains.



2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 33-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Evans

This paper considers the relationship between social science and the food industry, and it suggests that collaboration can be intellectually productive and morally rewarding. It explores the middle ground that exists between paid consultancy models of collaboration on the one hand and a principled stance of nonengagement on the other. Drawing on recent experiences of researching with a major food retailer in the UK, I discuss the ways in which collaborating with retailers can open up opportunities for accessing data that might not otherwise be available to social scientists. Additionally, I put forward the argument that researchers with an interest in the sustainability—ecological or otherwise—of food systems, especially those of a critical persuasion, ought to be empirically engaging with food businesses. I suggest that this is important in terms of generating better understandings of the objectionable arrangements that they seek to critique, and in terms of opening up conduits through which to affect positive changes. Cutting across these points is the claim that while resistance to commercial engagement might be misguided, it is nevertheless important to acknowledge the power-geometries of collaboration and to find ways of leveling and/or leveraging them. To conclude, I suggest that universities have an important institutional role to play in defining the terms of engagement as well as maintaining the boundaries between scholarship and consultancy—a line that can otherwise become quite fuzzy when the worlds of commerce and academic research collide.



2009 ◽  
Vol 32 (6S) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
A Gangloff ◽  
L Nadeau

Objective: Evaluation of the UK NEQAS 2008 guidelines for the interpretation of spectrophotometric xanthochromia. Method: A search of the laboratory database for all the xanthochromia test results between May 1st 2008 and May 1st 2009 was performed. Medical charts were reviewed for patients of Hôpital de l’Enfant-Jésus (HEJ) that had at least one detectable pigment (bilirubin, oxyhemoglobin, or methemoglobin). Xanthochromia results obtained with 4 different criteria (Chalmers original, Modified Chalmers, Duiser and UK NEQAS 2008) were compared. Results: We reviewed 41 medical charts (2 patients with duplicate lumbar punctures (LP) for a total of 43 LP). For these 41 patients there were 11 positive xanthochromia results, 5 of which were in concordance with a final diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The diagnosis of the 6 other positive xanthochromia results were as follow: meningeal spread of a lymphoma, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, exertional headache, viral encephalitis with a possibility of petechiaes on the cerebral CT and second LP. Interpretation (negative/positive) of 40/43 LP was identical for the 4 methods. 2 LP were positive with Duiser and UK NEQAS 2008 but negative with Chalmers approaches (final diagnosis: SAH and cerebral amyloid angiopathy). 1 LP was positive only by the Duiser method (viral encephalitis). Conclusions: UK NEQAS 2008 guidelines identified all SAH but are sensitive to traumatic and pathologic meningeal lesions. Except for a case of viral encephalitis with a suspicion of cerebral petechiaes on CT, UK NEQAS 2008 gave xanthochromia results similar to the one in use at HEJ (Duiser). Chalmers original and Modified Chalmers methods missed one of the five SAH.



1994 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 219-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.D. Waddington ◽  
D.L. Morse

10m firn temperatures are commonly used on the Antarctic plateau to estimate mean annual air temperatures. 10m firn temperatures measured at Taylor Dome (also referred to as McMurdo Dome in the literature), Antarctica, are influenced by a factor other than altitude and latitude that varies systematically across Taylor Dome. Some inter-related factors possibly contributing to the modern temperature variability are differences in sensible heat from warm or cold air masses, differences in wind strength and source region, differences in temperature inversion strength and differences in cloudiness. Our preliminary data are compatible with spatially variable katabatic winds that could control the winter temperature inversion strength to provide a large part of the signal. This has implications for paleoclimate studies.(1) Variations of the stable isotopes δ18O and δD from ice cores are a proxy for paleotemperature. The isotope thermometer is calibrated by comparing local isotope ratios with corresponding measured temperatures. In order to derive a useful isotope-temperature calibration, we must understand the processes that control the modern spatial variability of temperature. (2) In order to quantify past changes in local climate, we must understand processes that influence local spatial variability. If those processes differed in the past, ice-core climate reconstruction would be affected in two ways: through alteration of the geochemical record and through alteration of deep ice and firn temperatures.



2021 ◽  
pp. 002085232098340
Author(s):  
Paul Joyce

The UK government’s leaders initially believed that it was among the best-prepared governments for a pandemic. By June 2020, the outcome of the collision between the government’s initial confidence, on the one hand, and the aggressiveness and virulence of COVID-19, on the other, was evident. The UK had one of the worst COVID-19 mortality rates in the world. This article explores the UK government’s response to COVID-19 from a public administration and governance perspective. Using factual information and statistical data, it considers the government’s preparedness and strategic decisions, the delivery of the government response, and public confidence in the government. Points for practitioners Possible lessons for testing through application include: Use the precautionary principle to set planning assumptions in government strategies to create the possibility of government agility during a pandemic. Use central government’s leadership role to facilitate and enable local initiative and operational responses, as well as to take advantage of local resources and assets. Choose smart government responses that address tensions between the goal of saving lives and other government goals, and beware choices that are unsatisfactory compromises.



2021 ◽  
pp. 026858092199450
Author(s):  
Nicola Maggini ◽  
Tom Montgomery ◽  
Simone Baglioni

Against the background of crisis and cuts, citizens can express solidarity with groups in various ways. Using novel survey data this article explores the attitudes and behaviours of citizens in their expressions of solidarity with disabled people and in doing so illuminates the differences and similarities across two European contexts: Italy and the UK. The findings reveal pools of solidarity with disabled people across both countries that have on the one hand similar foundations such as the social embeddedness and social trust of citizens, while on the other hand contain some differences, such as the more direct and active nature of solidarity in Italy compared to the UK and the role of religiosity as an important determinant, particularly in Italy. Across both countries the role of ‘deservingness’ was key to understanding solidarity, and the study’s conclusions raise questions about a solidarity embedded by a degree of paternalism and even religious piety.



Author(s):  
Francois-Xavier Ageron ◽  
Timothy J. Coats ◽  
Vincent Darioli ◽  
Ian Roberts

Abstract Background Tranexamic acid reduces surgical blood loss and reduces deaths from bleeding in trauma patients. Tranexamic acid must be given urgently, preferably by paramedics at the scene of the injury or in the ambulance. We developed a simple score (Bleeding Audit Triage Trauma score) to predict death from bleeding. Methods We conducted an external validation of the BATT score using data from the UK Trauma Audit Research Network (TARN) from 1st January 2017 to 31st December 2018. We evaluated the impact of tranexamic acid treatment thresholds in trauma patients. Results We included 104,862 trauma patients with an injury severity score of 9 or above. Tranexamic acid was administered to 9915 (9%) patients. Of these 5185 (52%) received prehospital tranexamic acid. The BATT score had good accuracy (Brier score = 6%) and good discrimination (C-statistic 0.90; 95% CI 0.89–0.91). Calibration in the large showed no substantial difference between predicted and observed death due to bleeding (1.15% versus 1.16%, P = 0.81). Pre-hospital tranexamic acid treatment of trauma patients with a BATT score of 2 or more would avoid 210 bleeding deaths by treating 61,598 patients instead of avoiding 55 deaths by treating 9915 as currently. Conclusion The BATT score identifies trauma patient at risk of significant haemorrhage. A score of 2 or more would be an appropriate threshold for pre-hospital tranexamic acid treatment.



2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5870
Author(s):  
Philipp Kruse

Social Entrepreneurship (SE) describes a new entrepreneurial form combining the generation of financial and social value. In recent years, research interest in SE increased in various disciplines with a particular focus on the characteristics of social enterprises. Whereas a clear-cut definition of SE is yet to be found, there is evidence that culture and economy affect and shape features of SE activity. In addition, sector-dependent differences are supposed. Building on Institutional Theory and employing a mixed qualitative and quantitative approach, this study sheds light on the existence of international and inter-sector differences by examining 161 UK and Indian social enterprises. A content analysis and analyses of variance were employed and yielded similarities as well as several significant differences on an international and inter-sector level, e.g., regarding innovativeness and the generation of revenue. The current study contributes to a more nuanced picture of the SE landscape by comparing social enterprise characteristics in a developed and a developing country on the one hand and different sectors on the other hand. Furthermore, I highlight the benefits of jointly applying qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Future research should pay more attention to the innate heterogeneity among social enterprises and further consolidate and extend these findings.



Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001600
Author(s):  
Joanne Kathryn Taylor ◽  
Haarith Ndiaye ◽  
Matthew Daniels ◽  
Fozia Ahmed

AimsIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK was placed under strict lockdown measures on 23 March 2020. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects on physical activity (PA) levels using data from the prospective Triage-HF Plus Evaluation study.MethodsThis study represents a cohort of adult patients with implanted cardiac devices capable of measuring activity by embedded accelerometery via a remote monitoring platform. Activity data were available for the 4 weeks pre-implementation and post implementation of ‘stay at home’ lockdown measures in the form of ‘minutes active per day’ (min/day).ResultsData were analysed for 311 patients (77.2% men, mean age 68.8, frailty 55.9%. 92.2% established heart failure (HF) diagnosis, of these 51.2% New York Heart Association II), with comorbidities representative of a real-world cohort.Post-lockdown, a significant reduction in median PA equating to 20.8 active min/day was seen. The reduction was uniform with a slightly more pronounced drop in PA for women, but no statistically significant difference with respect to age, body mass index, frailty or device type. Activity dropped in the immediate 2-week period post-lockdown, but steadily returned thereafter. Median activity week 4 weeks post-lockdown remained significantly lower than 4 weeks pre-lockdown (p≤0.001).ConclusionsIn a population of predominantly HF patients with cardiac devices, activity reduced by approximately 20 min active per day in the immediate aftermath of strict COVID-19 lockdown measures.Trial registration numberNCT04177199.



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