The influence of uncertainties on the selection of extreme values of environmental loads and events

1990 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc A. Maes
Author(s):  
Jochen Schiewe

AbstractMaps that correctly represent the geographic size and shape of regions, taking into account scaling and generalization, have the disadvantage that small regions can easily be overlooked or not seen at all. Hence, for some map use tasks where small regions are of importance, alternative map types are needed. One option is the so-called equal area unit maps (EAUMs), where every enumeration unit has the same area size, possibly also the same basic shape such as squares or hexagons. The geometrical distortion of EAUMs, however, leads to a more difficult search for regions as well as a falsification of topological relationships and spatial patterns. To describe these distortions, a set of analytical measures is proposed. But it turns out that the expressiveness of these measures is rather limited. To better understand and to model the influence of distortions, two user studies were conducted. The study on the search in EAUMs (also with the aim of reconstruct the search strategies of the users) revealed how important it is to consider the local topology (e.g. corner or border positions of regions) during the generation process. With regard to pattern identification, it could be shown that EAUMs significantly increase the detection rate of local extreme values. On the other hand, global lateral gradients or geostatistical hot spots often get blurred or even lost. As a consequence, a task-oriented selection of map types and further developments are recommended.


2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (06) ◽  
pp. 1915-1936 ◽  
Author(s):  
I-Fei Chen ◽  
Ruey-Chyn Tsaur ◽  
Po-Ying Chen

Since smartphones have become the most prevalent communication tool in the world, a wide variety of low-end to high-end smartphone products are currently available on the market. Choosing a suitable product becomes a challenge due to the problem of feature fatigue. This study developed a smartphone selection procedure for prospective users by incorporating ELECTRE-III method with Kano two-dimensional quality model. An empirical example of 15 smartphones from three different categories, namely, flagship, screen size and price, demonstrated that the credibility matrix of the revised ELECTRE-III had fewer extreme values (0 and 1) than its original counterpart. It was able to clearly distinguish the relative satisfaction of each option in the respective group, particularly for the tied products which could not be discerned by the original ELECTRE-III.


Author(s):  
Elvira A. Islammagomedova ◽  
Eslanda A. Khalilova ◽  
Svetlana Ts. Kotenko ◽  
Aida A. Abakarova ◽  
Dinara A. Aliverdieva

The influence of extreme values of glucose and ethanol on the morphological properties of the yeast of the genus Saccharomyces was studied. The ability of strains S. cerevisiae Y-503, S. cerevisiae DAW-3a, and S. oviformis M-12X to adapt to stress was found. The dependence of the functional state and morphological properties of the studied strains on ploidy was shown. It was established that the cell forms of S. cerevisiae Y-503 and S. oviformis M-12X were diverse, the cells of the haploid strain S. cerevisiae DAW-3a were characterized by a round shape and smaller sizes compared to the polyploid strain Y-503 and diploid M-12X. Adaptation to different concentrations of glucose was accompanied by a change in the shape of the cells Y-503 and DAW-3a, while the sizes of cells were practically un-changed. Under conditions of simultaneous osmotic and ethanol stress in the cells of the studied strains, the presence of granular cytoplasm was revealed, which is associated with the accumulation of reserve nutrients. A change in the shape of the cells, form, surface, profile, color, size of colonies was detected. The study of the properties of the yeast of the genus Saccharomyces in the process of adaptation to extreme conditions may serve as the basis for the selection of strains that are promising for use in food biotechnology.


2019 ◽  
Vol 85 (7) ◽  
pp. 64-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina V. Gadolina ◽  
Natalia G. Lisachenko ◽  
Yuriy A. Svirskiy ◽  
Dmitry A. Dubin

Theoretical and practical issues of processing digital information in the problems related to durability assessment in conditions of loading are considered. Due to the specifics of the problem, in which the precise dedermination of the extreme values and their sequence is of primary importance, a number of generally accepted recommendations appeared invalid. For example, the Kotelnikov theorem, which was originally proposed in relation to the problems of estimating the frequency composition of the process, can lead to significant errors. It is shown that the requirements to the analysis of random loading processes with a goal of further assessment of the durability, due to their specificity, contradict with the specified requirements, namely, when choosing a frequency according to this rule, an error can be made, and not to the margin of the strength assessment. We considered the issue regarding digital filtering of hardware overshoots. Alternative approaches to the selection of extrema of the random process are analyzed: 1) direct hardware selection of extrema and 2) discretization by the method of level crossings. The latter approach has an optimal algorithm for isolating extremes and makes it possible to isolate extremes of a random process with lower costs and greater accuracy. The natural transition to integer arithmetic provides further optimization of the algorithm. The model and real examples demonstrate gains in terms of speed and memory, which ultimately promote an increase in the reliability of the information required for assessing the durability. The savings in memory and performance will allow processing of long-term implementations and result in a more accurate estimating of the remaining life and durability at the stage of production.


Author(s):  
H. Darmency ◽  
A. Fleury

Abstract While climate change mainly applies to global warming and subsequent drought periods, freezing periods also are changing and may trigger genetic adaptation. However, there are few prospective, experimental demonstrations. This paper investigates how effectively genetic frost-resistant variants can respond differently to frost periods, especially in farmers’ fields where various other selection pressures occur. An experiment using Avena fatua variants was set up in the field over 8 years of winter crop rotation. The frequency of each variant identified by their leaf isozymes was estimated every year. Six years were necessary to observe a weak trend towards an increased frequency of the frost-resistant phenotype, while the other variants had apparent erratic behaviour. Selection of the frost-resistant variant was challenged by irregular low temperature selection pressure, differential dormancy, germination and seed production, and possibly herbicide sensitivity that mitigated the expression of the selection response. This experiment shows how plant polymorphism and farmers’ practices that superimpose habitat unpredictability diversify possible responses to selection pressures and delay adaptation. However, if climate change brings both higher mean temperatures and extreme values, changes of apparent plant phenology could happen for weeds species displaying the appropriate genetic variability within the time-frame of farmers’ career, thus necessitating correlative adaptation of farming practices.


2013 ◽  
Vol 373-375 ◽  
pp. 50-53
Author(s):  
A. Abduraimov ◽  
Yuriy Drakunov ◽  
Bolat Espaev ◽  
Tatyana Zmeikova

In this paper, we consider the vector method of solving one of the most important problems of the dynamic analysis of mechanisms - kinetostatic analysis, which is to determine the reactions in the kinematic pairs and the balancing moment (force) on the leading link of a given law of motion of the mechanism [. This problem has a great practical importance in the selection of electro engines and in the calculation of the bearings in kinematic pairs. For example, setting the constant angular velocity of the driving link can be made kinematic and kinetostatic analysis of the mechanism and determine for all site of motion the balancing moment and the reactions in the kinematic pairs. By the average value of the balancing moment define the parameters of the electro engines and on the extreme values of the reactions produce calculation and selection of the bearings that will be installed in the hinges. In addition, knowledge of analytical expressions reactions will most clearly solve the problems of dynamic mechanisms with friction in the kinematic pairs.


2015 ◽  
Vol 95 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Urbański ◽  
Mariusz Pierzchała ◽  
Arkadiusz Terman ◽  
Marian Kamyczek ◽  
Marian Różycki ◽  
...  

Urbański, P., Pierzchała, M., Terman, A., Kamyczek, M., Różycki, M., Roszczyk, A. and Czarnik, U. 2015. The relationship between the polymorphism of the porcine CAST gene and productive traits in pigs. Can. J. Anim. Sci. 95: 361–367. The aim of the study was to characterize the polymorphism of the calpastatin gene identified with ApaLI, Hpy188I and PvuII restriction enzymes in two pig breeds and one line bred in Poland, and to evaluate the relationship between the CAST genotype and carcass traits. The analysis covered a total of 617 pigs of two breeds, Polish Landrace (185) and Polish Large White (216), and synthetic line L990 (216). All animals studied appeared to be monomorphic at two loci: CAST/ApaLI and CAST/Hpy188I, while three genotypes were observed at CAST/PvuII locus. Statistical analysis was carried out for each breed separately using the least square methods of the GLM procedure. The model included the effect of the CAST genotype, fixed effect of the RYR1 genotype and the effect of the sire. Because the RYR1 genotype could significantly modify the effect of other genes, the effect of the RYR1 genotype was included in the statistical model. The relationship between the polymorphism and several productive traits was identified in each of the study groups of pigs. Animals carrying the heterozygous genotype at this locus showed most extreme values for some of the traits tested. Our results suggest that the CAST /PvuII genotype might be utilized in the selection of valuable pig carcass traits, particularly weight and size of the loin.


Author(s):  
Dobromir Panayotov

The paper focuses on the activities pursued by Westinghouse in the development and licensing of POLCA-T code Control Rod Drop Accident (CRDA) Methodology. The following aspects of CRDA Methodology are considered: • Parameter Sensitivities based on Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT), • Qualification data base, • Cycle specific analysis, • Limiting initial conditions for transient simulation and CRDA transient simulation, • Sensitivity studies, • Uncertainty analysis and • Estimation of the methodology conservatism. The qualification data base of the methodology consists of single parameter confirmation, separate effects and integral test. It includes the PHOENIX and POLCA7 codes qualifications; POLCA-T qualification against the NEACRP-L-335 3D LWR Core Transient benchmark; simulations of the Peach Bottom EOC 2 Turbine Trip tests and SPERT-IIIE power excursion tests. The comprehensive CRDA methodology that utilizes PHOENIX4/POLCA7/POLCA-T calculation chain foresees complete cycle-specific analysis. The methodology consists of determination of candidates of control rods (CR) that could cause a significant reactivity excursion if dropped throughout the entire fuel cycle, selection of limiting initial conditions for CRDA transient simulation and transient simulation itself. The primary parameter utilized to determine the most limiting rod drop positions and candidates is the dropped control rod incremental reactivity worth. Example of scoping calculations covering three cycle exposures beginning-of-cycle BOC, middle-of-cycle (MOC), and end-of-cycle EOC and reactor states from cold critical to the end of followed CR sequence or up to 10% of rated power are presented. The dynamic response to the dropped control rod and the subsequent consequences to the fuel are evaluated by POLCA-T code. Selection of the limiting initial conditions covers the states along the lower limit of the typical plant startup region. Considered conditions start from 1 bar pressure and 20°C inlet temperature and go up to 70 bar and 274°C. It was observed that there are initial conditions that produce an extreme peak power value. It was also realized that there are initial conditions that produce an extreme peak fuel enthalpy value. Due to the complicated feedback mechanisms those initial conditions are not necessarily the same for the extreme values of the peak power and the fuel enthalpy. The Westinghouse methodology utilizes state-of-the-art methods. Unnecessary conservatisms in the methodology have been avoided to allow the accurate prediction of margin to design bases. This is mainly achieved by using the POLCA-T code for dynamic CRDA evaluations. The code belongs to the same calculation chain that is used for core design. Thus the very same reactor, core, cycle and fuel data base is used. This allows also reducing the uncertainties of input data and parameters that determine the energy deposition in the fuel. Uncertainty treatment, very selective use of conservatisms, selection of the initial conditions for limiting case analyses, incorporation into POLCA-T code models of the licensed fuel performance code are also among the means of performing realistic CRDA transient analyses.


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