How mortality risk estimated by MAGGIC-HF, SHFM and BCN-Bio HF scores is modified after 12-month management in a multidisciplinary HF Clinic

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Codina ◽  
M De Antonio ◽  
E Santiago-Vacas ◽  
M Domingo ◽  
E Zamora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Estimated Risk ◽  
Contemporary Management ◽  
One Year ◽  
Missing Variables

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) contemporary management has significantly improved over the past two decades leading to better survival. How application of the contemporary HF management guidelines affects the risk of death estimated by available web-based risk scores is not elucidated. Objective To assess changes in mortality risk prediction after a after a 12-month management period in a multidisciplinary HF Clinic. Methods Out of 1,689 consecutive patients with HF admitted at our ambulatory HF Clinic from May 2006 to November 2018, those who completed one year follow-up were considered for the study. Patients without NTproBNP measurement or with more than 3 missing variables for risk estimation were excluded. Three contemporary web-based HF risk scores were evaluated: MAGGIC-HF, Seattle HF Model (SHFM) and the Barcelona Bio-HF Calculator containing NTproBNP (BCN Bio-HF). Risk of all-cause death at one year and at 3 years were calculated at baseline and re-evaluated after 12-month management in a multidsisciplinary HF Clinic. Wilcoxon paired data test was used to compare changes in mortality risk estimation over time and test equality of matched pairs for comparing estimated change among tools. 442 patients used to derive the Barcelona Bio-HF Calculator were excluded for discrimination purposes. Results 1,157 patients were included (age 65.7±12.7 years, 70.4% men). A significant reduction in mortality risk estimation was observed with the three HF risk scores evaluated at 12-months (Table). The BCN Bio-HF model showed significantly different changes in risk estimation, fact that indeed was partnered with numerically better discrimination. AUC at 1 and 3 years, respectively, were: BCN Bio-HF (0.773 and 0.775), MAGGIC HF (0.686 and 0.748) and SHFM (0.773 and 0.739). Conclusions The three web-based risk scores evaluated showed a significant reduction in mortality risk estimation after 12 month management in a multidisciplinary HF Clinic. The BCN Bio-HF score showed higher reduction in estimated risk, together with better discrimination, likely because it incorporates contemporary treatment and use of biomarkers. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Pre-test probability risk scores and their use in contemporary management of patients with chest pain: One year stress echo cohort study

JRSM Open ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 205427041561129
Author(s):  
Daniela Cassar Demarco ◽  
Alexandros Papachristidis ◽  
Damian Roper ◽  
Ioannis Tsironis ◽  
Jonathan Byrne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Chest Pain ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Stress Echo ◽  
Contemporary Management ◽  
One Year ◽  
Test Probability

Mortality after proximal hip fracture in the Singapore population

2005 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 166-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.H. Lin ◽  
Y.W. Lim ◽  
Y.J. Wu ◽  
K.S. Lam
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Regional Hospital ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Mean ◽  
One Year

The aims were to prospectively assess the mortality risk following proximal hip fractures, identify factors predictive of increased mortality and to investigate the time trends in mortality with comparison to previous studies. Prospectively collected data from 68 consecutive patients who had been admitted to a regional hospital from May 2001 to September 2001 were reviewed. The mean age of the patients was 79.3 years old (range, 55–98) and 72.1% females. Patients were followed prospectively to determine the mortality risk associated with hip fracture over a two-year follow-up period. The acute in-hospital mortality rate at six months, one year and two years was 5.9% (4/68), 14.7% (10/68), 20.6% (14/68) and 25% (17/68) respectively. One-year and two-year mortality for those patients who were 80 or older was significantly higher than for other patients and the number of co-morbid illnesses also had significant effect. Cox regression was performed to determine the significant predictors for survival time. It was noted that patients 80 years or older were at higher risk of death compared with those less than 80 years as well as those with higher number of co-morbid illnesses. Our mortality rates have not declined in the past 10 years when compared with previous local studies. We conclude that for this group of patients studied, their mortality at one year and two years could be predicted by their age group and their number of co-morbid illnesses.

scholarly journals Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 808-820
Author(s):  
Lea Trela-Larsen ◽  
Gard Kroken ◽  
Christoffer Bartz-Johannessen ◽  
Adrian Sayers ◽  
Parham Aram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Knee Arthroplasty ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Clinical Information ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Joint Arthroplasty ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
First Year ◽  
Joint Registry ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
One Year

Aims To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. Methods A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. Results The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). Conclusion Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty ( https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk ). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):808–820.

scholarly journals Head-to-head comparison of MAGGIC-HF, SHFM and BCN-Bio HF scores

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Codina ◽  
M De Antonio ◽  
M Domingo ◽  
E Santiago-Vacas ◽  
E Zamora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Intraclass Correlation ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Clinical Scores ◽  
Risk Patients

Abstract Background Three heart failure (HF) web-based risk scores are currently used in clinical practice. Two only include clinical variables; one adds biomarkers, known to refine pathophysiological pathways in HF and to improve mortality prediction. Objective To assess inter-score agreement and to compare mortality prediction discrimination between MAGGIC-HF risk score, Seattle HF Model (SHFM) and Barcelona Bio-HF Risk Calculator (BCN Bio-HF), which includes both clinical and biomarker variables (NTproBNP). Methods Out of 1745 consecutive patients with HF from different etiologies admitted at our Unit from May 2006 to November 2018, 1689 with NTproBNP measurement at first visit were included. Absolute and consistency intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) at individual level among the three risk estimation tools was assessed. Bland Altman graphics were used to illustrate the differences between scores across the broad spectrum of mortality risk. Discrimination of the three prediction tools was compared by AUC of the ROC curves for 1-, 3- and 5-year all-cause mortality. Patients used previously to derivate the BCN Bio-HF were excluded. Results Patients age 66.3±13.3 years, 70.4% men, LVEF 36.4%±14.4, ischemic etiology 43.7%. Absolute ICC was poor for the three tools (from 0.18 [–0.006 to 0.35] to 0.53 [0.42 to 0.62], while consistency ICC was slightly better (from 0.28 [0.24 to 0.33] to 0.57 [0.53 to 0.60], being highest the ICC of MAGGIC-HF and BCN Bio-HF. Correlation was better among scores in low-mortality risk profile patients but clinical scores tended to infraestimate the risk in comparison with the BCN Bio-HF in high-risk patients (Figure). Discrimination was numerically better with the BCN Bio-HF at every time risk (Table), significantly better when compared with SHFM. Conclusions In comparison with other clinical scores, the BCN Bio-HF calculator predicted better higher mortality risk. Correlation was globally poor for the three tools at individual level, although improved in the low risk patients. Discrimination tended to be numerically better with the BCN Bio-HF calculator, reaching statistical significance when compared with the SHFM. Bland Altman agreement among tools Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Biomarker-Based Risk Prediction With The ABC-AF Scores in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Not Receiving Oral Anticoagulation

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander P. Benz ◽  
Ziad Hijazi ◽  
Johan Lindbäck ◽  
Stuart J. Connolly ◽  
John W. Eikelboom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Oral Anticoagulation ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Troponin T ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Clinical History ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Bleeding Score ◽  
One Year ◽  
Event Rates

Background: The novel ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical History) scores outperform traditional risk scores for stroke, major bleeding and death in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving oral anticoagulation. To refine their utility, the ABC-AF scores needed to be validated in patients not receiving oral anticoagulation. Methods: We measured plasma levels of the ABC biomarkers (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, cardiac troponin-T and growth-differentiation factor-15) to apply the previously developed ABC-AF scores in patients with AF receiving aspirin (n=3,195) or aspirin and clopidogrel (n=1,110) in two large clinical trials. Calibration was assessed by comparing estimated with observed one-year risks. Cox-regression models were used for recalibration. Discrimination was evaluated separately for the aspirin only and the overall cohort (n=4,305). Results: The ABC-AF-stroke score yielded a c-index of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.73) in both cohorts. The ABC-AF-bleeding score had a c-index of 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81) in the aspirin only cohort and 0.73 (95% CI 0.69-0.77) overall. Both scores were superior to risk scores recommended by current guidelines. The ABC-AF-death score yielded a c-index of 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.80) overall. Calibrated in patients receiving oral anticoagulation, the ABC-AF-stroke score underestimated, and the ABC-AF-bleeding score overestimated the risk of events in both cohorts. These scores were recalibrated for prediction of absolute event rates in the absence of oral anticoagulation. Conclusions: The biomarker-based ABC-AF scores showed better discrimination than traditional risk scores and were recalibrated for precise risk estimation in patients not receiving oral anticoagulation. They can now provide improved decision support regarding treatment of an individual patient with AF.

Abstract 13533: Acute Post-operative Renal Failure and Mortality Risk Following Norwood Surgical Palliation: A Secondary Analysis of the Pediatric Heart Network Single Ventricle Reconstruction Trial Public Use Database

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reid C Chamberlain ◽  
Nicholas D Andersen ◽  
Andrew W McCrary ◽  
Christoph P Hornik ◽  
Kevin D Hill
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Renal Failure ◽  
Right Ventricle ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Single Ventricle ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Delayed Sternal Closure ◽  
One Year

Introduction: The Single Ventricle Reconstruction (SVR) trial randomized neonates with a single morphologic right ventricle undergoing Norwood to a modified Blalock-Taussig shunt (mBTS) or a right ventricle-to-pulmonary artery shunt at 15 centers. The trial demonstrated increased risk of death or heart transplant at one-year post-Norwood in subjects randomized to a mBTS. Using SVR public data, we evaluated incidence and risk factors for post-op renal failure after Norwood, and evaluated the relationship between renal failure, shunt type and one-year post-Norwood mortality. Methods: Post-op renal failure was defined a-priori as a 3-fold rise in creatinine from baseline, or dialysis use within 7 days of Norwood. We used multivariate logistic regression to evaluate risk factors for post-op renal failure and Cox hazard regression to determine the association between post-op renal failure and one-year post-Norwood mortality. Results: Overall 46/544 (8.4%) SVR trial subjects developed post-op renal failure, the majority (32/46, 69.6%) by post-op day 3. In multivariate analysis, risk factors for post-op renal failure included receipt of a mBTS (aOR 3.3, p=0.02), center volume <15 cases/year (aOR 2.7, p=0.005), presence of ≥ 2 pre-op complications (aOR 4.0, p<0.001), low birth weight (aOR 3.2, p=0.002), post-op heart block (aOR 8.5, p=0.001), and delayed sternal closure (aOR 5.3, p=0.026). Renal failure was an independent risk factor for one-year post-Norwood mortality (aHR 1.9, CI 1.1-3.2, p=0.019). When renal failure and shunt type were included as model covariates, there was interaction (p=0.049) with renal failure attenuating the mortality risk associated with receipt of a mBTS (p=0.24), Figure. Conclusions: In the SVR trial, post-op renal failure was relatively common but with modifiable risk factors including receipt of a mBTS. Our findings suggest that post-op renal failure accounts for some of the increased mortality risk associated with the mBTS.

Functional Decline in Emergency Department Patients with Dyspnea; a Register-Based Cohort

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karoline Stentoft Rybjerg Larsen ◽  
Marianne Lisby ◽  
Hans Kirkegaard ◽  
Annemette Krintel Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Electronic Patient Record ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Functional Decline ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Record Data ◽  
Emergency Department Patients ◽  
One Year ◽  
Historic Cohort

Abstract Background Functional decline is associated with frequent hospital admissions and elevated risk of death. Presumably patients acutely admitted to hospital with dyspnea have a high risk of functional decline. The aim of this study was to describe patient characteristics, hospital trajectory, and use of physiotherapy services of dyspneic patients in an emergency department. Furthermore, to compare readmission and death among patients with and without a functional decline, and to identify predictors of functional decline. Methods Historic cohort study of patients admitted to a Danish Emergency Department using prospectively collected electronic patient record data from a Business Intelligence Registry of the Central Denmark Region. The study included adult patients that due to dyspnea in 2015 were treated at the emergency department (ED). The main outcome measures were readmission, death, and functional decline. Results In total 2,048 dyspneic emergency treatments were registered. Within 30 days after discharge 20% was readmitted and 3.9% had died. Patients with functional decline had a higher rate of 30-day readmission (31.2% vs. 19.1%, p&lt;0.001) and mortality (9.3% vs. 3.6%, p=0.009) as well as mortality within one year (36.1% vs. 13.4%, p&lt;0.001). Predictors of functional decline were age ≥60 years and hospital stay ≥6 days. Conclusion Patients suffering from acute dyspnea are seen at the ED at all hours. In total one in five patients were readmitted and 3.9% died within 30 days. Patients with a functional decline at discharge seems to be particularly vulnerable.

scholarly journals Mortality in older adults following a fragility fracture: real-world retrospective matched-cohort study in Ontario

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques P. Brown ◽  
Jonathan D. Adachi ◽  
Emil Schemitsch ◽  
Jean-Eric Tarride ◽  
Vivien Brown ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Fragility Fracture ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Real World ◽  
First Year ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Matched Cohort Study ◽  
Fracture Cohort ◽  
One Year

Abstract Background Recent studies are lacking reports on mortality after non-hip fractures in adults aged > 65. Methods This retrospective, matched-cohort study used de-identified health services data from the publicly funded healthcare system in Ontario, Canada, contained in the ICES Data Repository. Patients aged 66 years and older with an index fragility fracture occurring at any osteoporotic site between 2011 and 2015 were identified from acute hospital admissions, emergency and ambulatory care using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes and data were analyzed until 2017. Thus, follow-up ranged from 2 years to 6 years. Patients were excluded if they presented with an index fracture occurring at a non-osteoporotic fracture site, their index fracture was associated with a trauma code, or they experienced a previous fracture within 5 years prior to their index fracture. This fracture cohort was matched 1:1 to controls within a non-fracture cohort by date, sex, age, geography and comorbidities. All-cause mortality risk was assessed. Results The survival probability for up to 6 years post-fracture was significantly reduced for the fracture cohort vs matched non-fracture controls (p < 0.0001; n = 101,773 per cohort), with the sharpest decline occurring within the first-year post-fracture. Crude relative risk of mortality (95% confidence interval) within 1-year post-fracture was 2.47 (2.38–2.56) in women and 3.22 (3.06–3.40) in men. In the fracture vs non-fracture cohort, the absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at any site was 12.5% vs 5.1% in women and 19.5% vs 6.0% in men. The absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at a non-hip vs hip site was 9.4% vs 21.5% in women and 14.4% vs 32.3% in men. Conclusions In this real-world cohort aged > 65 years, a fragility fracture occurring at any site was associated with reduced survival for up to 6 years post-fracture. The greatest reduction in survival occurred within the first-year post-fracture, where mortality risk more than doubled and deaths were observed in 1 in 11 women and 1 in 7 men following a non-hip fracture and in 1 in 5 women and 1 in 3 men following a hip fracture.

scholarly journals Comparison of Cancer Patients to Non-Cancer Patients among COVID-19 Inpatients at a National Level

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1436
Author(s):  
Alain Bernard ◽  
Jonathan Cottenet ◽  
Philippe Bonniaud ◽  
Lionel Piroth ◽  
Patrick Arveux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
National Level ◽  
Administrative Database ◽  
Hospital Death ◽  
Solid Cancer ◽  
Hematological Cancer ◽  
Risk Of Death

(1) Background: Several smaller studies have shown that COVID-19 patients with cancer are at a significantly higher risk of death. Our objective was to compare patients hospitalized for COVID-19 with cancer to those without cancer using national data and to study the effect of cancer on the risk of hospital death and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. (2) Methods: All patients hospitalized in France for COVID-19 in March–April 2020 were included from the French national administrative database, which contains discharge summaries for all hospital admissions in France. Cancer patients were identified within this population. The effect of cancer was estimated with logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. (3) Results: Among the 89,530 COVID-19 patients, we identified 6201 cancer patients (6.9%). These patients were older and were more likely to be men and to have complications (acute respiratory and kidney failure, venous thrombosis, atrial fibrillation) than those without cancer. In patients with hematological cancer, admission to ICU was significantly more frequent (24.8%) than patients without cancer (16.4%) (p < 0.01). Solid cancer patients without metastasis had a significantly higher mortality risk than patients without cancer (aOR = 1.4 [1.3–1.5]), and the difference was even more marked for metastatic solid cancer patients (aOR = 3.6 [3.2–4.0]). Compared to patients with colorectal cancer, patients with lung cancer, digestive cancer (excluding colorectal cancer) and hematological cancer had a higher mortality risk (aOR = 2.0 [1.6–2.6], 1.6 [1.3–2.1] and 1.4 [1.1–1.8], respectively). (4) Conclusions: This study shows that, in France, patients with COVID-19 and cancer have a two-fold risk of death when compared to COVID-19 patients without cancer. We suggest the need to reorganize facilities to prevent the contamination of patients being treated for cancer, similar to what is already being done in some countries.

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