scholarly journals PREDICTING ADVERSE OUTCOMES IN ED PATIENTS USING THE CLINICAL FRAILTY SCALE AND A FRAILTY INDEX

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S781-S782
Author(s):  
Kenneth Rockwood ◽  
Mohammad Pulok ◽  
Alex van der Valk ◽  
Olga Theou

Abstract Our aim was to use the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) database to investigate whether the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) measuring the baseline state, and a Frailty Index (FI) based on a CGA (current state, with acute illness) can predict adverse outcomes in acutely ill Emergency Department (ED) patients. It contains CFS and FI scores on 1028 ED patients referred to internal medicine at the Halifax Infirmary between 2009-2019 (Mage 80.69 ± SD 8.28, range 57-103; 54.9% female). The mean scores were 0.44±0.14 (FI) and 5.58±1.66 (CFS). Most patients (72%) arrived via ambulance. The average length of stay was 27.0±20.5 hours. Overall, 22% were discharged home, and 63.5% had died by December 2017 with a mean survival time of 1.98±2.01 years. Controlling for age, sex, and Canadian Triage Acuity Score, the odds ratio (95% Confidence Interval) of being discharged home and the hazard ratio (95% Confidence Interval) for mortality was 0.94 (0.92-0.95) and 1.02 (1.02-1.03), respectively per 0.01-point increase in FI. For the CFS, using score ≤4 as the reference, the odds ratio and the hazard ratio were 0.70 (0.42-1.16) and 2.02 (1.51-2.69), respectively for the CFS 5 group, 0.47 (0.27-0.81) and 2.72 (2.05-3.61), respectively for the CFS 6 group, and 0.38 (0.21-0.70) and 4.67 (3.51-6.20), respectively for the CFS 7-9 group. Even controlling for acuity, both the CFS and the FI independently predict adverse outcomes in ED patients. These add prognostic information to the routinely collected ED assessments, and establish targets for care plan based on recovery to baseline.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seshadri Reddy Varikasuvu ◽  
Saurabh Varshney ◽  
Naveen Dutt ◽  
Manne Munikumar ◽  
Shahir Asfahan ◽  
...  

AbstractHypercoagulability and the need for prioritizing coagulation markers for prognostic abilities have been highlighted in COVID-19. We aimed to quantify the associations of D-dimer with disease progression in patients with COVID-19. This systematic review and meta-analysis was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020186661.We included 113 studies in our systematic review, of which 100 records (n = 38,310) with D-dimer data) were considered for meta-analysis. Across 68 unadjusted (n = 26,960) and 39 adjusted studies (n = 15,653) reporting initial D-dimer, a significant association was found in patients with higher D-dimer for the risk of overall disease progression (unadjusted odds ratio (uOR) 3.15; adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.64). The time-to-event outcomes were pooled across 19 unadjusted (n = 9743) and 21 adjusted studies (n = 13,287); a strong association was found in patients with higher D-dimers for the risk of overall disease progression (unadjusted hazard ratio (uHR) 1.41; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.10). The prognostic use of higher D-dimer was found to be promising for predicting overall disease progression (studies 68, area under curve 0.75) in COVID-19. Our study showed that higher D-dimer levels provide prognostic information useful for clinicians to early assess COVID-19 patients at risk for disease progression and mortality outcomes. This study, recommends rapid assessment of D-dimer for predicting adverse outcomes in COVID-19.


Author(s):  
Andrew C. Nixon ◽  
Julie Brown ◽  
Ailsa Brotherton ◽  
Mark Harrison ◽  
Judith Todd ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction The aims of this quality improvement project were to: (1) proactively identify people living with frailty and CKD; (2) introduce a practical assessment, using the principles of the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), for people living with frailty and chronic kidney disease (CKD) able to identify problems; and (3) introduce person-centred management plans for people living with frailty and CKD. Methods A frailty screening programme, using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), was introduced in September 2018. A Geriatric Assessment (GA) was offered to patients with CFS ≥ 5 and non-dialysis- or dialysis-dependent CKD. Renal Frailty Multidisciplinary Team (MDT) meetings were established to discuss needs identified and implement a person-centred management plan. Results A total of 450 outpatients were screened using the CFS. One hundred and fifty patients (33%) were screened as frail. Each point increase in the CFS score was independently associated with a hospitalisation hazard ratio of 1.35 (95% CI 1.20–1.53) and a mortality hazard ratio of 2.15 (95% CI 1.63–2.85). Thirty-five patients received a GA and were discussed at a MDT meeting. Patients experienced a median of 5.0 (IQR 3.0) problems, with 34 (97%) patients experiencing at least three problems. Conclusions This quality improvement project details an approach to the implementation of a frailty screening programme and GA service within a nephrology centre. Patients living with frailty and CKD at risk of adverse outcomes can be identified using the CFS. Furthermore, a GA can be used to identify problems and implement a person-centred management plan that aims to improve outcomes for this vulnerable group of patients.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Ebner ◽  
C Sentler ◽  
V P Harjola ◽  
H Bueno ◽  
K Keller ◽  
...  

Abstract Background/Introduction According to the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 2014 guideline, systemic hypotension (HT) is the critical variable defining high-risk in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). However, signs of organ hypoperfusion might more adequately identify PE patients with cardiogenic shock due to right ventricular (RV) failure. Purpose We investigated whether hypoperfusion markers provide superior prognostic information for identifying PE patients at highest risk of early adverse outcomes. Methods Consecutive PE patients enrolled in a prospective single-centre registry between 09/2008 and 03/2018 were included. We analysed the predictive value of symptoms and findings suggesting hypoperfusion for in-hospital adverse outcome (catecholamine treatment, resuscitation or PE-related death) and in-hospital all-cause mortality. Results We analysed 814 patients, including 83 (10.2%) ESC 2014 high-risk patients. Patients presenting with cardiac arrest (CA, 4.5%) were a priori defined as high risk. Markers suggesting hypoperfusion of the brain (altered metal status, odds ratio [OR] 8.2 [95% CI, 4.2–16.0]), lung (respiratory insufficiency, 25.0 [9.4–66.7]) and tissue (venous lactate ≥2.2 mmol/l, 6.4 [3.2–12.9]) as well as HT (13.5 [6.7–27.2]) predicted an adverse outcome. The risk for an adverse outcome increased with the number of positive markers (AUC 0.86 [0.80–0.93]). Patients with ≥3 positive hypoperfusion markers had an OR of 42.9 (11.0–167.3) and patients defined as high-risk by the ESC 2014 an OR of 17.2 (8.8–33.3) with regard to an adverse outcome (Figure 1; Table 1). A new definition of high-risk (CA or ≥3 hypoperfusion markers) was associated with an OR of 73.2 (31.3–171.1) for an in-hospital adverse outcome and 26.2 (12.1–56.7) for in-hospital mortality. Table 1. Prognostic performance of hypoperfusion markers Adverse outcome (if negative) Adverse outcome (if positive) Sensitivity Specificity LR+ OR (95% CI) ≥1 hypoperfusion marker 1.1% 21.0% 91.9% 68.2% 2.9 24.4 (7.3–80.8) ≥2 hypoperfusion markers 4.7% 50.0% 48.6% 95.5% 10.9 20.3 (9.1–45.1) ≥3 hypoperfusion markers 6.5% 75.0% 24.3% 99.3% 32.7 42.9 (11.0–167.3) ESC 2014 high-risk 5.7% 51.1% 35.0% 96.9% 11.4 17.2 (8.8–33.3) Cardiac arrest 8.4% 86.5% 33.0% 99.3% 47.3 70.1 (26.4–186.1) Abbreviations: LR+, positive likelihood ratio; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval. Figure 1. Frequency of adverse outcome Conclusions Markers of organ hypoperfusion have high predictive value for early adverse outcomes in acute PE. Risk increases with the number of positive markers and is critically elevated in patients presenting with CA or ≥3 markers. Acknowledgement/Funding This study was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF 01EO1503).


2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 2213-2224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Srivastava ◽  
Ragnar Palsson ◽  
Arnaud D. Kaze ◽  
Margaret E. Chen ◽  
Polly Palacios ◽  
...  

Background Few studies have evaluated whether histopathologic lesions on kidney biopsy provide prognostic information beyond clinical and laboratory data.Methods We enrolled 676 individuals undergoing native kidney biopsy at three tertiary care hospitals into a prospective, observational cohort study. Biopsy specimens were adjudicated for semiquantitative scores in 13 categories of histopathology by two experienced renal pathologists. Proportional hazards models tested the association between histopathologic lesions and risk of kidney disease progression (≥40% eGFR decline or RRT).Results Mean baseline eGFR was 57.5±36.0 ml/min per 1.73 m2. During follow-up (median, 34.3 months), 199 individuals suffered kidney disease progression. After adjustment for demographics, clinicopathologic diagnosis, and laboratory values, the following lesions (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval) were independently associated with progression: inflammation in nonfibrosed interstitium (0.52; 0.32 to 0.83), moderate and severe versus minimal interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (2.14; 1.24 to 3.69 and 3.42; 1.99 to 5.87, respectively), moderate and severe versus minimal global glomerulosclerosis (2.17; 1.36 to 3.45 and 3.31; 2.04 to 5.38, respectively), moderate and severe versus minimal arterial sclerosis (1.78; 1.15 to 2.74 and 1.64; 1.04 to 2.60, respectively), and moderate and severe versus minimal arteriolar sclerosis (1.63; 1.08 to 2.46 and 2.33; 1.42 to 3.83, respectively). An 11-point chronicity score derived from semiquantitative assessments of chronic lesions independently associated with higher risk of kidney disease progression (hazard ratio per one-point increase, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 1.27).Conclusions Across a diverse group of kidney diseases, histopathologic lesions on kidney biopsy provide prognostic information, even after adjustment for proteinuria and eGFR.


Neurosurgery ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
David F. Bauer ◽  
Gerald. McGwin ◽  
Sherry M. Melton ◽  
Richard L. George ◽  
James M. Markert

Abstract BACKGROUND: Intracranial pressure is routinely monitored in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Patients with TBI sometimes develop hydrocephalus, requiring permanent cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) diversion. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the need for permanent CSF diversion in patients with TBI. METHODS: Patients who received a ventriculostomy after TBI between June 2007 and July 2008 were identified, and their medical records were abstracted to a database. RESULTS: Sixteen of 71 patients (22.5%) receiving a ventriculostomy required a ventriculoperitoneal or ventriculoatrial shunt before discharge from the hospital. The average number of days between ventriculostomy and shunt was 18.3. Characteristics that predispose these patients to require permanent CSF diversion include the need for craniotomy within 48 hours of admission (odds ratio, 5.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.48-18.35) and history of culture-positive CSF (odds ratio, 5.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-25.52). Length of stay was increased in patients receiving permanent CSF diversion (average length of stay, 61 vs 31 days; P = .04). Patient discharge disposition was similar between shunted and nonshunted patients. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study, 22% of TBI patients who required a ventriculostomy eventually needed permanent CSF diversion. Patients with TBI should be assessed for the need for permanent CSF diversion before discharge from the hospital. Care must be taken to prevent ventriculitis. Future studies are needed to evaluate more thoroughly the risk factors for the need for permanent CSF diversion in this patient population.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Márlon Juliano Romero Aliberti ◽  
Claudia Szlejf ◽  
Claudia Kimie Suemoto ◽  
Murilo Bacchini Dias ◽  
Wilson Jacob-Filho ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between frailty and death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. METHODOLOGY: Prospective cohort study with patients ≥ 50 years hospitalized with COVID-19. Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale and the frailty index. Patients with a Clinical Frailty Scale score ≥ 5 were considered frail. The primary endpoints were mortality at 30 and 100 days after hospital admission. We used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the association between frailty and mortality. We also explored whether frailty predicted different mortality levels among patients within strata of similar age and acute disease severity (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score). RESULTS: A total of 1,830 patients were included (mean age 66 years; 58% men; 27% frail according to Clinical Frailty Scale score). The mortality risk at 30 days (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.7; 95% CI 1.4 - 2.1; p <0.001) and 100 days (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.7; 95% CI 1.4 - 2.1; p <0.001) was almost double for frail patients. The Clinical Frailty Scale also predicted different mortality levels among patients within strata of similar age and acute disease severity. Frailty intensified the effect of acute disease severity on the risk of death (p for interaction = 0.01). Of note, the Clinical Frailty Scale achieved outstanding accuracy to identify frailty according to the frailty index (area under the ROC curve = 0.94; 95% CI 0.93 - 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Our results encourage the use of the Clinical Frailty Scale in association with measures of acute disease severity to determine prognosis and promote adequate resource allocation in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Okada ◽  
K Inoue ◽  
T Onishi ◽  
K Iwakura ◽  
T Yamada ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Frailty and aging are two common conditions both associated with increased vulnerability to stressful events with high risk of adverse outcomes. Purpose To evaluate the association between frailty and aging and their impacts on clinical outcome in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Methods Analysis was performed from a prospective multicenter observational registry for HFpEF (PURSUIT-HFpEF Registry) conducted in the Osaka region of Japan. A total of 757 patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (diagnosed by using Framingham criteria) met the inclusion criteria: a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50% and brain natriuretic peptide ≥100pg/ml. We included 483 patients (age, 80±9 years; men, 45%; atrial fibrillation, 35%) whose follow-up data after survival discharge were available. Patients' frailty and aging were evaluated using the clinical frailty scale (CFS) and age quartiles (Q1: &lt;76 years (n=122), Q2: 76–82 years (n=111), Q3: 82–87 years (n=127), Q4: &gt;87 years (n=123)), respectively. The primary clinical endpoint was defined as the composite of death, re-hospitalization for heart failure, and cerebrovascular accident. Results The median (interquartile range) CFS rating was 3 (2–5), and there was a little correlation between CFS rating and age (r2=0.16, p&lt;0.001). The prevalence of frailty, defined as a CFS rating &gt;4 (n=132), was positively correlated with age quartiles (Q1: 9.0%, Q2: 21.4%, Q3: 29.9%, Q4: 48.0%, p&lt;0.001). During the median follow-up period 396 days (interquartile range, 344–698) after discharge, the clinical endpoint was observed in 172 patients. The incidence was higher in patients with frailty than those without it (49.6% vs. 30.4%, log-rank p&lt;0.001). It was also correlated with age quartiles (Q1: 23.0%, Q2: 34.2%, Q3: 36.2%, Q4: 48.8%, log-rank p=0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that frailty (hazard ratio, 1.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.09–2.10; p=0.013) and age (hazard ratio per quartile increase, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.07–1.43; p=0.004) were both associated with the clinical endpoint. Subgroup analysis in 352 patients without frailty also revealed the significant impact of age on the endpoint (1.26; 1.06–1.51; p=0.008). However, in 131 patients with frailty, there was no significant impact of age on the endpoint (1.16; 0.90–1.51; p=0.25). Conclusions Frailty was common and was associated with aging in HFpEF patients. Although they were both associated with unfavorable events, aging was no longer a significant predictor of adverse outcomes under the frailty conditions. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Roche Diagnostics K.K. and Fuji Film Toyama Chemical Co. Ltd.


2007 ◽  
Vol 106 (6) ◽  
pp. 1088-1095 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Mahla ◽  
Anneliese Baumann ◽  
Peter Rehak ◽  
Norbert Watzinger ◽  
Martin N. Vicenzi ◽  
...  

Background Preoperative N-terminal pro-BNP (NT-proBNP) is independently associated with adverse cardiac outcome but does not anticipate the dynamic consequences of anesthesia and surgery. The authors hypothesized that a single postoperative NT-proBNP level provides additional prognostic information for in-hospital and late cardiac events. Methods Two hundred eighteen patients scheduled to undergo vascular surgery were enrolled and followed up for 24-30 months. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards model were performed to evaluate predictors of in-hospital and long-term cardiac outcome. The optimal discriminatory level of preoperative and postoperative NT-proBNP was determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results During a median follow-up of 826 days, 44 patients (20%) experienced 51 cardiac events. Perioperatively, median NT-proBNP increased from 215 to 557 pg/ml (interquartile range, 83/457 to 221/1178 pg/ml; P&lt;0.001). The optimum discriminate threshold for preoperative and postoperative NT-proBNP was 280 pg/ml (95% confidence interval, 123-400) and 860 pg/ml (95% confidence interval, 556-1,054), respectively. Adjusted for age, previous myocardial infarction, preoperative fibrinogen, creatinine, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, type, duration, and surgical complications, only postoperative NT-proBNP remained significantly associated with in-hospital (adjusted hazard ratio, 19.8; 95% confidence interval, 3.4-115) and long-term cardiac outcome (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.88; 95% confidence interval, 2.43-9.81). Conclusion A single postoperative NT-proBNP determination provides important additional prognostic information to preoperative levels and may support therapeutic decisions to prevent subsequent structural myocardial damage.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siri Helene Hauge ◽  
Inger Johanne Bakken ◽  
Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio ◽  
Siri Eldevik Håberg

Abstract BackgroundNorwegian children are more frequently hospitalized with influenza than adults. Little is known about the characteristics of these children. Our aim was to investigate the presence of pre-existing risk conditions and to determine the duration of influenza hospitalizations in children during two influenza seasons.MethodsThe Norwegian Patient Registry holds data on all hospitalized patients in Norway. We included all patients younger than 18 years hospitalized with a diagnosis of influenza during the influenza seasons 2017-18 and 2018-19. Pre-existing risk conditions for influenza were identified by ICD-10 diagnoses in the Norwegian Patient Registry. In addition, information on asthma diagnoses were also retrieved from the Norwegian Registry for Primary Health Care. To estimate the prevalence of risk conditions in the child population, we obtained diagnoses on all Norwegian children in a two-year period prior to each influenza season. We calculated age-specific rates for hospitalization and risk for being hospitalized with influenza in children with risk conditions.ResultsIn total, 1013 children were hospitalized with influenza during the two influenza seasons. Children younger than 6 months had the highest rate of hospitalization, accounting for 13.5% of all admissions (137 children). Hospitalization rates decreased with increasing age. Among children hospitalized with influenza, 25% had one or more pre-existing risk conditions for severe influenza, compared to 5% in the general population under 18 years. Having one or more risk conditions significantly increased the risk of hospitalization, (Odds Ratio (OR) 6.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.0-7.4 in the 2017-18 season, and OR 6.8, 95% CI 5.4-8.4 in the 2018-19 season). Immunocompromised children and children with epilepsy had the highest risk of hospitalization with influenza, followed by children with heart disease and lung disease. The average length of stay in hospital were 4.6 days, and this did not differ with age.ConclusionChildren with pre-existing risk conditions for influenza had a higher risk of hospitalization for influenza. However, most children (75%) admitted to hospital with influenza in Norway during 2017-2019 did not have pre-existing risk conditions. Influenza vaccination should be promoted in particular for children with risk conditions and pregnant women to protect new-borns.


Author(s):  
Qin Wang ◽  
Yu Wang ◽  
Jinwei Wang ◽  
Luxia Zhang ◽  
Ming-Hui Zhao ◽  
...  

Background and objectivesNocturnal hypertension is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with CKD. However, the individual association of entities of nocturnal hypertension according to achievement of systolic and/or diastolic BP goals with kidney failure and cardiovascular outcomes of CKD is not clear.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsOur study analyzed data from participants in the Chinese Cohort Study of Chronic Kidney Disease. Nocturnal hypertension was categorized into three entities: isolated nocturnal diastolic hypertension with diastolic BP ≥70 mm Hg and systolic BP <120 mm Hg, isolated nocturnal systolic hypertension with systolic BP ≥120 mm Hg and diastolic BP <70 mm Hg, and nocturnal systolic-diastolic hypertension with both systolic BP ≥120 mm Hg and diastolic BP ≥70 mm Hg. Associations of nocturnal hypertension entities with kidney failure and cardiovascular outcomes were evaluated by Cox regression.ResultsIn total, 2024 patients with CKD stages 1–4 were included in our analysis (mean age, 49±14 years; 57% men; eGFR=51±29 ml/min per 1.73 m2; proteinuria: 0.9 [0.4–2.1] g/d). Among them, 1484 (73%) patients had nocturnal hypertension, with the proportions of 26%, 8%, and 66% for isolated nocturnal diastolic hypertension, isolated nocturnal systolic hypertension, and nocturnal systolic-diastolic hypertension, respectively. Three hundred twenty kidney events and 148 cardiovascular events were recorded during median follow-up intervals of 4.8 and 5.0 years for kidney and cardiovascular events, respectively. After adjustment, isolated nocturnal systolic hypertension was associated with a higher risk for cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 3.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.61 to 6.23). Nocturnal systolic-diastolic hypertension showed a higher risk for both kidney failure (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.17 to 2.49) and cardiovascular outcomes (hazard ratio, 2.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.24 to 3.86). No association was observed between isolated nocturnal diastolic hypertension with either kidney failure or cardiovascular events.ConclusionsNocturnal systolic hypertension, either alone or in combination with diastolic hypertension, is associated with higher risks for adverse outcomes in patients with CKD.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document