The long-term rapid increase in incidence of adenocarcinoma of the kidney in the USA, especially among younger ages

Abstract Background We previously observed a rapid increase in the incidence of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in men and women between 1935 and 1989 in the USA, using data from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. This increase appeared to be largely explained by a positive cohort effect, but no population-based study has been conducted to comprehensively examine age-period-cohort effects by histologic types for the past decade. Methods We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of the two major kidney-cancer subtypes RCC and renal urothelial carcinoma, and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 114 138 incident cases of kidney cancer reported between 1992 and 2014 to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme. Results The age-adjusted incidence rates of RCC have been increasing consistently in the USA among both men and women (from 12.18/100 000 in 1992–1994 to 18.35/100 000 in 2010–2014 among men; from 5.77/100 000 in 1992–1994 to 8.63/100 000 in 2010–2014 among women). Incidence rates generally increased in successive birth cohorts, with a continuing increase in rates among the younger age groups (ages 0–54 years) in both men and women and among both Whites and Blacks. These observations were confirmed by age-period-cohort modelling, which suggested an increasing birth-cohort trend for RCC beginning with 1955 birth cohorts, regardless of the assumed value for the period effect for both men and women and for Whites and Blacks. Conclusions Known risk factors for kidney cancer may not fully account for the observed increasing rates or the birth-cohort pattern for RCC, prompting the need for additional etiologic hypotheses (such as environmental exposures) to investigate these descriptive patterns.

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Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China From 1990 to 2019: a Joinpoint and Age-period-cohort Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-288649/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yufeng Wang ◽

Xueying Huang ◽

Huan Ma ◽

Suru Yue ◽

Jie Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Analysis ◽

Cohort Effect ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Period Effect ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

Intervention Measures ◽

Disease Pattern ◽

The 1960S ◽

Disease Study

Abstract Background Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individuals and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear. Methods Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and relative risk were calculated using joinpoint regression and an age–period–cohort model, respectively. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. The age effect exerted the most significant impact on the incidence of migraine. The period effect showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of the cohort effect, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the occurrence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts. Conclusion Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. An intensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.

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Trends in the Incidence of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in All 50 United States Examined Through an Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

JNCI Cancer Spectrum ◽

10.1093/jncics/pkaa033 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Wilson L da Costa ◽

Abiodun O Oluyomi ◽

Aaron P Thrift

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

The United States ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Ductal Adenocarcinoma ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Men And Women ◽

Cancer Statistics ◽

Incidence Trends

Abstract Background Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a major contributor to cancer-related mortality in the United States. We aimed to investigate trends in incidence rates from all 50 states from 2001 to 2016, overall and by race, sex, and state and using age-period-cohort analyses. Methods Age-adjusted incidence rates and trends in adults aged 35 years and older were calculated using data from the US Cancer Statistics registry. We used joinpoint regression to compute annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percent changes. We also analyzed incidence trends by age groups and birth cohorts through age-period-cohort modeling. Results Age-standardized incidence rates increased by 1.23% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.92% to 1.54%) annually between 2001 and 2008 but were stable between 2008 and 2016 (APC = 0.11%, 95% CI = -0.13% to 0.35%). APCs and inflection points were no different for men and women. Rates increased statistically significantly among non-Hispanic whites (NHW) and non-Hispanic blacks between 2001 and 2007 and between 2001 and 2008, respectively, but, in later years, rates increased slowly among NHWs (APC = 0.36%, 95% CI = 0.12% to 0.60%), and were stable among non-Hispanic blacks (APC = -0.40%, 95% CI = -0.89% to 0.10%). The number of states with age-standardized incidence rates no less than 20.4 per 100 000 increased from 16 in 2001–2003 to 40 by 2015–2016. We found a strong birth cohort effect in both men and women and increasing rates among successive birth cohorts of NHWs. Conclusions The incidence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma has consistently increased in the United States, albeit at slower rates recently. We observed notable increases among NHWs and in some states in the central and southern part of the country.

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Comparing cohort incidence of schizophrenia with that of bipolar disorder and affective psychosis in individuals born in Stockholm County 1955–1967

Psychological Medicine ◽

10.1017/s0033291715001336 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 45 (16) ◽

pp. 3433-3439 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

J. Söderlund ◽

S. Wicks ◽

L. Jörgensen ◽

C. Dalman

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Bipolar Disorder ◽

Birth Cohort ◽

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Affective Psychoses ◽

Increased Risk ◽

National Patient ◽

Incident Cases

Background.Perinatal factors are associated with increased risk for both schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Improvements in obstetric and maternal healthcare and positive socioeconomic development in Sweden from the 1950s onwards could be expected to affect incidence estimates. However, commonly incidence rates are calculated during a specific year, i.e. time of diagnosis, which mirrors proximal precipitating risk factors. To examine whether incidence estimates are compatible with the hypothesis of an impact of perinatal exposures on the risk of the different disorders we here instead calculate incidence rates for consecutive birth cohorts born between 1955 and 1967. We hypothesized that schizophrenia incidence would be more affected compared to bipolar disorder and other affective psychoses since most perinatal risk factors are more pronounced in schizophrenia aetiology.Method.Birth cohorts of individuals born in Sweden and resident in Stockholm (N = 2 16 322), were followed in The National Patient Register regarding incident inpatient episodes Incident cases/10 000 person-years and birth cohort were calculated. Linear regression was used to estimate change in incidence rate.Results.We found stable birth cohort-based incidence estimates for bipolar disorder and other affective psychoses, but a continuous reduction in incidence estimates for schizophrenia as well as other non-affective psychoses in subsequent birth cohorts from 1955 to 1967.Conclusions.The consecutive birth cohort-based incidence estimates unveiled patterns that are compatible with the hypothesis of an impact of early life exposures decreasing over time, in the aetiology of schizophrenia, whereas this pattern is less apparent in affective psychoses..

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Trend dynamics of thyroid cancer incidence among China and the U.S. adult population from 1990 to 2017: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-021-10635-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yiran Cui ◽

Sumaira Mubarik ◽

Ruijia Li ◽

Nawsherwan ◽

Chuanhua Yu

Keyword(s):

Thyroid Cancer ◽

Ionizing Radiation ◽

Adult Population ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

Influential Factors ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Period Effect ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Men And Women ◽

The U.S

Abstract Background Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017. Methods We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence. Results The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990–2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990–2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963–1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S. Conclusion From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

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Prevalence of three lifestyle factors among Australian adults from 2004 to 2018: an age–period–cohort analysis

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckz243 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 827-832 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yang Peng ◽

Zhiqiang Wang

Keyword(s):

Birth Cohort ◽

Physical Inactivity ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

Lifestyle Factors ◽

Distinct Pattern ◽

Period Effect ◽

Obesity Prevalence ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Current Smoking ◽

Increased Risk

Abstract Background It has been reported that current smoking, overweight/obesity and physical inactivity are significant modifiable risk factors of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the effects of age, period and cohort on the prevalence of the three lifestyle factors among Australian adults are still unclear. Methods Our study analysed data from 2004 to 2005, 2007 to 2008, 2011 to 2012, 2014 to 2015 and 2017 to 2018 National Health Survey. We employed the age–period–cohort models to analyze the individual effects of age, period and cohort on the prevalence of current smoking, overweight/obesity and physical inactivity among Australian adults. Results A total of 76 489 adults were included. Age, period and cohort all showed significant independent effects on prevalence of current smoking, overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (P < 0.01) except the cohort effect on physical inactivity in females (P = 0.31). The prevalence of current smoking decreased with age and period, and it first increased with birth cohort and then declined. For overweight/obesity prevalence, it increased with age until early-60s and then dropped. We found a positive period effect on overweight/obesity; however, the prevalence of overweight/obesity experienced several shifts with birth cohort. Physical activity prevalence raised with age, and it has several fluctuations for curves of period and cohort. Conclusion Age effects showed a distinct pattern for the prevalence of the three lifestyle factors. The prevalence of overweight/obesity continued to rise during the study period. The raised physical inactivity prevalence in recent study cycles is also concerning. Recent birth cohorts may be at increased risk of overweight/obesity and physical inactivity.

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Cohort analysis of the state of female genital cutting in Nigeria: prevalence, daughter circumcision and attitude towards its discontinuation

BMC Women s Health ◽

10.1186/s12905-021-01324-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Babatunde M. Gbadebo ◽

Adetokunbo T. Salawu ◽

Rotimi F. Afolabi ◽

Mobolaji M. Salawu ◽

Adeniyi F. Fagbamigbe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Birth Cohort ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

The State ◽

Female Genital Cutting ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Bodily Integrity ◽

Factors Associated ◽

Female Children ◽

Genital Cutting ◽

Female Genital

Abstract Background Female genital cutting (FGC) inflicts life-long injuries on women and their female children. It constitutes a violation of women’s fundamental human rights and threats to bodily integrity. Though decreasing, the practice is high and widespread in Nigeria despite efforts towards its eradication. This study was conducted to perform cohort analysis of the state of FGC between the years 2009 and 2018 in Nigeria. Results The study found that that FGC has reduced over the years from 56.3% among the 1959–1963 birth cohort to 25.5% among 1994–1998 cohorts but a rise in FGC between 1994–1998 cohorts and 1999–2003 cohorts (28.4%). The percentage of respondents who circumcised their daughters reduced from 40.1% among the oldest birth cohort to 3.6% among the younger cohort. Birth-cohort, religion, education, residence, region, and ethnicity were associated with FGC. Factors associated with the daughter’s circumcision were birth-cohort, religion, residence, region, ethnicity, wealth, marital status, FGC status of the respondent, and FGC required by religion. Similar factors were found for discontinuation intention. Conclusions The practice of FGC is still high but decreasing among younger birth-cohorts in Nigeria. There is no significant change in the perception of the discontinuation of FGC. More awareness about the adverse effects of FGC, particularly among women with poor education in Nigeria will greatly reduce this cultural menace’s timely eradication.

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Declining Incident Dementia Rates Across Four Population-Based Birth Cohorts

The Journals of Gerontology Series A ◽

10.1093/gerona/gly236 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 74 (9) ◽

pp. 1439-1445 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Kevin J Sullivan ◽

Hiroko H Dodge ◽

Tiffany F Hughes ◽

Chung-Chou H Chang ◽

Xinmei Zhu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Birth Cohort ◽

Sex Education ◽

Healthy Aging ◽

Epidemiological Studies ◽

Population Based ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Clinical Dementia Rating ◽

Or Education ◽

Incident Dementia

Abstract Background Incidence rates of dementia appear to be declining in high-income countries according to several large epidemiological studies. We aimed to describe declining incident dementia rates across successive birth cohorts in a U.S. population-based sample and to explore the influences of sex and education on these trends. Methods We pooled data from two community-sampled prospective cohort studies with similar study aims and contiguous sampling regions: the Monongahela Valley Independent Elders Survey (1987–2001) and the Monongahela-Youghiogheny Healthy Aging Team (2006–Ongoing). We identified four decade-long birth cohorts spanning birth years 1902–1941. In an analysis sample of 3,010 participants (61% women, mean baseline age = 75.7 years, mean follow-up = 7.1 years), we identified 257 cases of incident dementia indicated by a Clinical Dementia Rating of 1.0 or higher. We used Poisson regression to model incident dementia rates by birth cohort, age, sex, education, and interactions of Sex × Cohort and Sex × Education. We further examined whether cohort effects varied by education, testing a Cohort × Education interaction and stratifying the models by education. Results Compared to the earliest birth cohort (1902–1911), each subsequent cohort had a significantly lower incident dementia rate (1912–1921: incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.655, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.477–0.899; 1922–1931: IRR = 0.387, 95% CI = 0.265–0.564; 1932–1941: IRR = 0.233, 95% CI = 0.121–0.449). We observed no significant interactions of either sex or education with birth cohort. Conclusions A decline in incident dementia rates was observed across successive birth cohorts independent of sex, education, and age.

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Melanoma Incidence Among Non-Hispanic Whites in All 50 US States From 2001 Through 2015

JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute ◽

10.1093/jnci/djz153 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 112 (5) ◽

pp. 533-539 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Aaron P Thrift ◽

Franciska J Gudenkauf

Keyword(s):

Incidence Rate ◽

Birth Cohort ◽

Sun Exposure ◽

The United States ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

Incidence Trends ◽

Percent Change ◽

Melanoma Incidence

Abstract Background The United States has large regional variation in primary prevention campaigns for skin cancer. We collected data from all 50 states to examine changes in melanoma incidence and performed age-period-cohort analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence rates. Methods Annual melanoma incidence rates for non-Hispanic whites from 2001 to 2015 were extracted from the US Cancer Statistics registry. Secular trends were examined overall and by sex and state. We used joinpoint regression to compute annual percent change and average annual percent change and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We also analyzed incidence trends by 5-year age group and birth cohort using incidence rate ratios and age-period-cohort modeling. Results Melanoma incidence increased from 20.7 per 100 000 (95% CI = 20.5 to 20.9) in 2001 to 28.2 per 100 000 (95% CI = 28.0 to 28.5) in 2015, increasing by 3.90% (95% CI = 2.36% to 5.48%) annually between 2001 and 2005 and 1.68% (95% CI = 1.37% to 1.99%) annually from 2005 through 2015. The average annual percent change in melanoma incidence rates were similar for men (2.34%, 95% CI = 1.91 to 2.78) and women (2.25%, 95% CI = 1.60 to 2.91). Age-specific relative risk by birth cohort increased from circa 1921 to 1981 before decreasing. Compared with adults born circa 1956, those born circa 1991 had lower melanoma risk (incidence rate ratio = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.77 to 0.94). Geographic variation was observed; some states still have melanoma rates trending upwards in all birth cohorts. Conclusions The continued increase in melanoma incidence among non-Hispanic whites, particularly in states where rates continue to rise among recent and current birth cohorts, underscores the need for increased public health campaigns aimed at reducing sun exposure.

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A birth cohort analysis of the incidence of adenocarcinoma of the uterine cervix in the USA

European Journal of Cancer Prevention ◽

10.1097/cej.0000000000000062 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 240-244 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Cairong Zhu ◽

Bryan A. Bassig ◽

Yawei Zhang ◽

Kunchong Shi ◽

Peter Boyle ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Birth Cohort ◽

Uterine Cervix ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

The Usa ◽

Birth Cohort Analysis

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Trend Dynamics of Thyroid Cancer Incidence among China and the U.S. Adult Population from 1992-2017: A Join-point and Age-Period-Cohort

10.21203/rs.3.rs-89504/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yiran Yi Cui ◽

Sumaira Mubarik ◽

Jia Rui Li ◽

Nawsherwan ◽

Chuanhua Chuan Yu

Keyword(s):

Thyroid Cancer ◽

Ionizing Radiation ◽

Adult Population ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Influential Factors ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Period Effect ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Join Point ◽

The U.S

Abstract Purpose: Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1992 to 2017.Patients and methods: We examined the trends of TC incidence in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates was estimated by Join-point regression analysis.Results: TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age eﬀect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period eﬀect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1992-2017 in the U.S. The cohort eﬀect peaked in 1963-1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S.Conclusion: From 1992 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

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