Trend dynamics of thyroid cancer incidence among China and the U.S. adult population from 1990 to 2017: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

Abstract Background Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017. Methods We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence. Results The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990–2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990–2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963–1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S. Conclusion From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

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Trend Dynamics of Thyroid Cancer Incidence among China and the U.S. Adult Population from 1992-2017: A Join-point and Age-Period-Cohort

10.21203/rs.3.rs-89504/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yiran Yi Cui ◽

Sumaira Mubarik ◽

Jia Rui Li ◽

Nawsherwan ◽

Chuanhua Chuan Yu

Keyword(s):

Thyroid Cancer ◽

Ionizing Radiation ◽

Adult Population ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Influential Factors ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Period Effect ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Join Point ◽

The U.S

Abstract Purpose: Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1992 to 2017.Patients and methods: We examined the trends of TC incidence in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates was estimated by Join-point regression analysis.Results: TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age eﬀect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period eﬀect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1992-2017 in the U.S. The cohort eﬀect peaked in 1963-1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S.Conclusion: From 1992 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

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Long-Term Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16162878 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (16) ◽

pp. 2878 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Fang Wang ◽

Sumaira Mubarik ◽

Yu Zhang ◽

Lu Wang ◽

Yafeng Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Liver Cancer ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Period Effect ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Long Term Trends

Liver cancer (LC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths: this study aims to present the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects of the incidence of and mortality from LC in China during 1990–2017. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We determined trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) using Joinpoint regression. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis was performed to describe the long-term trends with intrinsic estimator methods. The ASMR decreased markedly before 2013 and increased thereafter, with overall average annual percent change (AAPC) values of −0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): −0.6%, −0.3%) for men and −1.3% (−1.6%, −1.0%) for women during 1990–2017. The ASIR significantly increased by 0.2% (0.1%, 0.3%) in men and decreased by 1.1% (−1.2%, −1.0%) in women from 1990 to 2017. The risks of LC incidence and mortality increased with age in both genders. The period effect risk ratios (RRs) of incidence and mortality displayed similar monotonic increasing trends in men and remained stable in women. The cohort effect showed an overall downward trend and almost overlapping incidence and mortality in both genders, and later birth cohorts experienced lower RRs than previous birth cohorts. Older age, recent period, and birth before 1923 were associated with a higher risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality. The net age and period effects showed an increasing trend, while the cohort effects presented a decreasing trend in incidence and mortality risk. As China’s population aging worsens and with the popularization of unhealthy lifestyles, the burden caused by liver cancer will remain a huge challenge in China’s future.

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The long-term rapid increase in incidence of adenocarcinoma of the kidney in the USA, especially among younger ages

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyz136 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Tongzhang Zheng ◽

Cairong Zhu ◽

Bryan A Bassig ◽

Simin Liu ◽

Stephen Buka ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Birth Cohort ◽

Kidney Cancer ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Period Effect ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Men And Women ◽

Cancer Subtypes ◽

The Usa ◽

Incident Cases

Abstract Background We previously observed a rapid increase in the incidence of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in men and women between 1935 and 1989 in the USA, using data from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. This increase appeared to be largely explained by a positive cohort effect, but no population-based study has been conducted to comprehensively examine age-period-cohort effects by histologic types for the past decade. Methods We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of the two major kidney-cancer subtypes RCC and renal urothelial carcinoma, and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 114 138 incident cases of kidney cancer reported between 1992 and 2014 to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme. Results The age-adjusted incidence rates of RCC have been increasing consistently in the USA among both men and women (from 12.18/100 000 in 1992–1994 to 18.35/100 000 in 2010–2014 among men; from 5.77/100 000 in 1992–1994 to 8.63/100 000 in 2010–2014 among women). Incidence rates generally increased in successive birth cohorts, with a continuing increase in rates among the younger age groups (ages 0–54 years) in both men and women and among both Whites and Blacks. These observations were confirmed by age-period-cohort modelling, which suggested an increasing birth-cohort trend for RCC beginning with 1955 birth cohorts, regardless of the assumed value for the period effect for both men and women and for Whites and Blacks. Conclusions Known risk factors for kidney cancer may not fully account for the observed increasing rates or the birth-cohort pattern for RCC, prompting the need for additional etiologic hypotheses (such as environmental exposures) to investigate these descriptive patterns.

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Age period cohort analysis of chewing ability in Korea from 2007 to 2018

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-94086-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Nam-Hee Kim ◽

Ichiro Kawachi

Keyword(s):

Cohort Analysis ◽

Cohort Effect ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Period Effect ◽

The Past ◽

Health And Nutrition ◽

Period Effects ◽

Chewing Ability ◽

Main Variable ◽

Observation Period

AbstractThere have been marked improvements in oral health in Korea during the past 10 years, including chewing ability. We sought to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects in chewing ability between 2007 and 2018. We analyzed data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The main variable was chewing difficulty, which was assessed among participants aged 20 years and older. APC analysis revealed three trends in chewing difficulty: (1) there was an increase in chewing difficulty starting at around 60 years of age (age effect), (2) there was a steady decrease in chewing difficulty during the observation period (period effect), and (3) chewing ability improved with each successive generation born after 1951 (cohort effect). Regarding recent improvements in chewing ability, cohort effects were somewhat more important than period effects.

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Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China From 1990 to 2019: a Joinpoint and Age-period-cohort Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-288649/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yufeng Wang ◽

Xueying Huang ◽

Huan Ma ◽

Suru Yue ◽

Jie Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Analysis ◽

Cohort Effect ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Period Effect ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

Intervention Measures ◽

Disease Pattern ◽

The 1960S ◽

Disease Study

Abstract Background Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individuals and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear. Methods Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and relative risk were calculated using joinpoint regression and an age–period–cohort model, respectively. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. The age effect exerted the most significant impact on the incidence of migraine. The period effect showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of the cohort effect, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the occurrence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts. Conclusion Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. An intensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.

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Historical Trends in Incidence of Breast Cancer in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Los Angeles, 1973–2012: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

International Journal of Public Health ◽

10.3389/ijph.2021.603810 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 66 ◽

Author(s):

Hang-Hang Luan ◽

Li-Sha Luo ◽

Zhi-Yan Lu

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Risk Factors ◽

Hong Kong ◽

Los Angeles ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

White Women ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

Breast Cancer Incidence ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Period Effect

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the long-term trends of breast cancer incidence in Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Los Angeles (LA).Methods: Data were obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was conducted by joinpoint regression analysis, and the age, period and cohort effects were estimated by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.Results: The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) in LA were higher than Shanghai and Hong Kong. During 1988–2012, the ASIRs significantly decreased in white women in LA (AAPC = −0.6%, 95% CI: −0.9% to −0.4%) while increased in Shanghai (2.5%: 2.1%–2.9%) and Hong Kong (2.2%: 2.0%–2.5%). The APC analysis revealed significantly increased effects of age and period, and decreased effect of birth cohort.Conclusion: Although age and cohort effects were relatively strong, the period effect may be the key factor affecting trends of incidence, which may be caused by increasing exposures to carcinogens and risk factors. Therefore, more effective measures should be carried out promptly to protect high-risk populations such as elder women, to avoid exposures to risk factors of breast cancer.

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Support for Marijuana (Cannabis) Legalization: Untangling Age, Period, and Cohort Effects

Collabra Psychology ◽

10.1525/collabra.45 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

William Campbell ◽

Jean Twenge ◽

Nathan Carter

Keyword(s):

Hierarchical Models ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

General Social Survey ◽

Age Effect ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Period Effect ◽

Social Survey ◽

Time Period ◽

Survey Sample ◽

Nationally Representative

In three large, nationally representative surveys of U.S. 12th graders, college students, and adults (N = 9 million) conducted 1968–2015, Americans became significantly more supportive of legal marijuana (cannabis) starting in the mid-1980’s. Hierarchical models using age-period-cohort analysis on the adult (General Social Survey) sample showed that the increased support for legalization is primarily a time period effect rather than generational or age effect; thus, Americans of all ages became more supportive of legal marijuana. Among 12th graders, support for marijuana legalization was closely linked to perceptions of marijuana safety.

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Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Diabetes in China from 1990 to 2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16010158 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 158 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Xiaoxue Liu ◽

Chuanhua Yu ◽

Yongbo Wang ◽

Yongyi Bi ◽

Yu Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Analysis ◽

Age Groups ◽

Cohort Effect ◽

Period Effect ◽

Age Group ◽

Joinpoint Regression ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Joinpoint Regression Analysis ◽

Younger Age ◽

Incidence And Mortality

Background: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is rapidly increasing in China, but the secular trends in incidence and mortality remain unknown. This study aims to examine time trends from 1990 to 2017 and the net age, period, and cohort effects on diabetes incidence and mortality. Methods: Incidence and mortality rates of diabetes (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 5–9 to 80–84 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study. The average annual percentage changes in incidence and mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results: The joinpoint regression analysis showed that age-standardized incidence significantly rose by 0.92% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.3%) in men and 0.69% in women (95% CI: 0.3%, 1.0%) from 1990 to 2017; age-standardized mortality rates rose by 0.78% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in men and decreased by 0.12% (95% CI: −0.4%, 0.1%) in women. For age-specific rates, incidence increased in most age groups, with exception of 30–34, 60–64, 65–69 and 70–74 age groups in men and 25–29, 30–34, 35–39 and 70–74 age groups in women; mortality in men decreased in the younger age groups (from 20–24 to 45–49 age group) while increased in the older age groups (from 50–54 to 80–84 age group), and mortality in women decreased for all age groups with exception of the age group 75–79 and 80–84. The age effect on incidence showed no obvious changes with advancing age while mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality increased with advancing time period while the period trend on incidence began to decrease since 2007; cohort effect on incidence and mortality decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts while incidence showed no material changes from 1982–1986 to 2012–2016 birth cohort. Conclusions: Mortality decreased in younger age groups but increased in older age groups. Incidence increased in most age groups. The net age or period effect showed an unfavorable trend while the net cohort effect presented a favorable trend. Aging likely drives a continued increase in the mortality of diabetes. Timely population-level interventions aiming for obesity prevention, healthy diet and regular physical activity should be conducted, especially for men and earlier birth cohorts at high risk of diabetes.

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Trends in the Incidence of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in All 50 United States Examined Through an Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

JNCI Cancer Spectrum ◽

10.1093/jncics/pkaa033 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Wilson L da Costa ◽

Abiodun O Oluyomi ◽

Aaron P Thrift

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

The United States ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Ductal Adenocarcinoma ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Men And Women ◽

Cancer Statistics ◽

Incidence Trends

Abstract Background Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a major contributor to cancer-related mortality in the United States. We aimed to investigate trends in incidence rates from all 50 states from 2001 to 2016, overall and by race, sex, and state and using age-period-cohort analyses. Methods Age-adjusted incidence rates and trends in adults aged 35 years and older were calculated using data from the US Cancer Statistics registry. We used joinpoint regression to compute annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percent changes. We also analyzed incidence trends by age groups and birth cohorts through age-period-cohort modeling. Results Age-standardized incidence rates increased by 1.23% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.92% to 1.54%) annually between 2001 and 2008 but were stable between 2008 and 2016 (APC = 0.11%, 95% CI = -0.13% to 0.35%). APCs and inflection points were no different for men and women. Rates increased statistically significantly among non-Hispanic whites (NHW) and non-Hispanic blacks between 2001 and 2007 and between 2001 and 2008, respectively, but, in later years, rates increased slowly among NHWs (APC = 0.36%, 95% CI = 0.12% to 0.60%), and were stable among non-Hispanic blacks (APC = -0.40%, 95% CI = -0.89% to 0.10%). The number of states with age-standardized incidence rates no less than 20.4 per 100 000 increased from 16 in 2001–2003 to 40 by 2015–2016. We found a strong birth cohort effect in both men and women and increasing rates among successive birth cohorts of NHWs. Conclusions The incidence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma has consistently increased in the United States, albeit at slower rates recently. We observed notable increases among NHWs and in some states in the central and southern part of the country.

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Gender Disparities and Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. From 1994-2019: Age-period-cohort Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-113701/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yudiyang Ma ◽

Yiran Cui ◽

Qian Hu ◽

Chuanhua Yu

Keyword(s):

Gender Gap ◽

Cohort Analysis ◽

Transmitted Disease ◽

Age Groups ◽

Cohort Effect ◽

Female Gender ◽

Gender Disparities ◽

Period Effect ◽

The U.S ◽

Hiv Aids

Abstract Background: HIV/AIDS is a serious sexually transmitted disease with poor prognosis. So statistical data on burden of HIV/AIDS incidence and epidemic characteristics are valuable for policy making and reducing healthcare costs. This study aims to explore gender disparities of HIV/AIDS incidence and relative risks of HIV/AIDS incidence by gender and age groups in China and U.S. Methods: We extracted data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study and compared epidemic characteristic and gender disparities between China and U.S. Then we employed APC model to estimate age-period-cohort effect of HIV/AIDS incidence in both countries. Results: ASIR in China kept growing between 1994 and 2004 then fell to the level of mid-1990s but in U.S. ASIR increased in the past decade. There existed a huge and continuous expanding gender gap in U.S. while it came to widen in China before 2005 then shrunk during 2005-2019. APC analysis showed the age effect and period effect were consistent to the result of incidence comparison between male and female: gender disparities increased with progress of time in both countries and men had higher incidence of HIV/AIDS when they became old in China. Cohort effect indicated later birth groups bear relatively higher risks of incidence than earlier birth groups. Conclusions: large gender disparities could worsen the HIV epidemic situation. In the U.S., disparities continuously expanded meanwhile incidence of HIV/AIDS was increasing, while gap was under control in China and incidence curbed. Analyzing by APC model, besides younger age groups exposed to high risks of HIV/AIDS incidence in both countries, elder citizens in China faced higher risks which implies aging of population may lead another wave of HIV/AIDS epidemic. Therefore, both young and old age groups deserve to be noticed by police-makers and narrow gender disparities should put on agenda.

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