scholarly journals Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Burzyński ◽  
Christoph Deuster ◽  
Frédéric Docquier ◽  
Jaime de Melo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Migration ◽  
First Century ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Global Migration ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Laws And Policies ◽  
Climate Shocks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on global migration and inequality. Accounting for the effects of changing temperatures, sea levels, and the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, we model the impact of climate change on productivity and utility in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. By endogenizing people’s migration decisions across millions of 5 × 5 km spatial cells, our approach sheds light on the magnitude and dyadic, education-specific structure of human migration induced by global warming. We find that climate change strongly intensifies global inequality and poverty, reinforces urbanization, and boosts migration from low- to high-latitude areas. Median projections suggest that climate change will induce a voluntary and a forced permanent relocation of 62 million working-age individuals over the course of the twenty-first century. Overall, under current international migration laws and policies, only a small fraction of people suffering the negative effects of climate change manages to move beyond their homelands. We conclude that it is unlikely that climate shocks will induce massive international flows of migrants, except under combined extremely pessimistic climate scenarios and highly permissive migration policies. By contrast, poverty resulting from climate change is a real threat to all of us.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Cultural Security

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Dominika Krupocin ◽  
Jesse Krupocin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Human Migration ◽  
National Language ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Regional Conflicts ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
Cultural Reality ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges and most pressing issues faced by humanity in the modern era. Extreme weather events, changes to world ecosystems, species extinction, disruption of animal and human migration, resource shortages, socio-economic concerns, outbreaks and pandemics, as well as domestic and international conflicts represent only a few select potential climate change consequences. Regrettably, when considering the issues pertinent to climate change, one of the oft-overlooked areas is cultural security. Rising sea levels will lead to some of the world’s islands and coastal cities essentially being erased from Earth, resulting in the destruction, and possibly even the disappearance, of their cultural heritage. Inhabitants of endangered and unlivable areas are likely to drive mass exodus on a global scale, and forcibly displaced persons who find themselves in a new socio-cultural reality face countless challenges that will hinder their sense of cultural security. The most immediate concerns are related to the potential eruption of local and regional conflicts, emergence of negative social behaviors, disappearance of national language and cultural identity, and statelessness due to a loss of habitable lands, all of which pose severe threats to cultural security.

The geography of climate migration

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Michał Burzyński ◽  
Frédéric Docquier ◽  
Hendrik Scheewel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Migration ◽  
First Century ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Internal Mobility ◽  
Almost All

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

The Impact of Climate Change on States

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 115-132
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kułaga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Law ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

The Impact of Climate Change in the Modern Enterprise

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 26-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasios Danos ◽  
Konstantina Boulouta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Modern Enterprise ◽  
The World ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

This article analyses the profound and rapid climate changes that have taken place worldwide in the past two decades and their effects on modern enterprise. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and developing strategies to adapt to and counterbalance future impacts of climate change sustainably are among the most pressing needs of the world today. Global temperatures are predicted to continue rising, bringing changes in weather patterns, rising sea levels, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Such climatic events can have a major impact on households, businesses, critical infrastructure and vulnerable sections of society, as well as having a major economic impact. Therefore, society must prepare to cope with living in a changing climate. The effects of a changing climate have considerable impacts on modern enterprises. In some parts of the world, these impacts are increasingly becoming evident.

Twenty-First-Century Climate Change Hot Spots in the Light of a Weakening Sun

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 3431-3447
Author(s):  
Tobias Spiegl ◽  
Ulrike Langematz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSatellite measurements over the last three decades show a gradual decrease in solar output, which can be indicative as a precursor to a modern grand solar minimum (GSM). Using a chemistry–climate model, this study investigates the potential of two GSM scenarios with different magnitude to counteract the climate change by projected anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the twenty-first century. To identify regions showing enhanced vulnerability to climate change (hot spots) and to estimate their response to a possible modern GSM, a multidimensional metric is applied that accounts for—in addition to changes in mean quantities—seasonal changes in the variability and occurrence of extreme events. We find that a future GSM in the middle of the twenty-first century would temporarily mitigate the global mean impact of anthropogenic climate change by 10%–23% depending on the GSM scenario. A future GSM would, however, not be able to stop anthropogenic global warming. For the GHG-only scenario, our hot-spot analysis suggests that the midlatitudes show a response to rising GHGs below global average, while in the tropics, climate change hot spots with more frequent extreme hot seasons will develop during the twenty-first century. A GSM would reduce the climate change warming in all regions. The GHG-induced warming in Arctic winter would be dampened in a GSM due to the impact of reduced solar irradiance on Arctic sea ice. However, even an extreme GSM could only mitigate a fraction of the tropical hot-spot pattern (up to 24%) in the long term.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over China under the SRES A1B Scenario Using 28 AOGCMs

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (17) ◽  
pp. 4741-4756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weilin Chen ◽  
Zhihong Jiang ◽  
Laurent Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Huai River ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A1b Scenario

Probabilistic projection of climate change consists of formulating the climate change information in a probabilistic manner at either global or regional scale. This can produce useful results for studies of the impact of climate change impact and change mitigation. In the present study, a simple yet effective approach is proposed with the purpose of producing probabilistic results of climate change over China for the middle and end of the twenty-first century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B) emission scenario. Data from 28 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are used. The methodology consists of ranking the 28 models, based on their ability to simulate climate over China in terms of two model evaluation metrics. Different weights were then given to the models according to their performances in present-day climate. Results of the evaluation for the current climate show that five models that have relatively higher resolutions—namely, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia ECHAM4 (INGV ECHAM4), the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (UKMO HadCM3), the CSIRO Mark version 3.5 (Mk3.5), the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2, high-resolution version [MIROC3.2 (hires)]—perform better than others over China. Their corresponding weights (normalized to 1) are 0.289, 0.096, 0.058, 0.048, and 0.044, respectively. Under the A1B scenario, surface air temperature is projected to increase significantly for both the middle and end of the twenty-first century, with larger magnitude over the north and in winter. There are also significant increases in rainfall in the twenty-first century under the A1B scenario, especially for the period 2070–99. As far as the interannual variability is concerned, the most striking feature is that there are high probabilities for the future intensification of interannual variability of precipitation over most of China in both winter and summer. For instance, over the Yangtze–Huai River basin (28°–35°N, 105°–120°E), there is a 60% probability of increased interannual standard deviation of precipitation by 20% in summer, which is much higher than that of the mean precipitation. In general there are small differences between weighted and unweighted projections, but the uncertainties in the projected changes are reduced to some extent after weighting.

scholarly journals The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Urban Properties in Tampa Due to Climate Change

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Weiwei Xie ◽  
Bo Tang ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

Fast urbanization produces a large and growing population in coastal areas. However, the increasing rise in sea levels, one of the most impacts of global warming, makes coastal communities much more vulnerable to flooding than before. While most existing work focuses on understanding the large-scale impacts of sea-level rise, this paper investigates parcel-level property impacts, using a specific coastal city, Tampa, Florida, USA, as an empirical study. This research adopts a spatial-temporal analysis method to identify locations of flooded properties and their costs over a future period. A corrected sea-level rise model based on satellite altimeter data is first used to predict future global mean sea levels. Based on high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation data and property maps, properties to be flooded are identified to evaluate property damage cost. This empirical analysis provides deep understanding of potential flooding risks for individual properties with detailed spatial information, including residential, commercial, industrial, agriculture, and governmental buildings, at a fine spatial scale under three different levels of global warming. The flooded property maps not only help residents to choose location of their properties, but also enable local governments to prevent potential sea-level rising risks for better urban planning. Both spatial and temporal analyses can be easily applied by researchers or governments to other coastal cities for sea-level rise- and climate change-related urban planning and management.

scholarly journals Ecoutopia from Fiction to Fact: An Interview with Heather Alberro

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 44-47
Author(s):  
Heather Alberro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New York ◽  
Human Being ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Stephen Hawking ◽  
Ecological Consideration ◽  
History Of ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
Paris Climate Agreement ◽  
The Impact

Human is at the heart of the story of climate change in the Anthropocene where, according to Dipesh Chakrabarty (2012), human behaviors have influenced the environment and created a distinct geological epoch. Current climate change issues are largely human induced. This implies that the human species is now part of the natural history of the planet.  In November 2016, Stephen Hawking warned that humanity has 1000 years to leave the earth due to climate change, but in his most recent BBC documentary aired on June 15, 2017 called Expedition New Earth, he suggested humans have just 100 years left before doomsday. In spite of such warnings and writings, Donald Trump withdrew America from the Paris Climate Agreement on June 2017, on the same day, satellite images showed that a huge mass of ice in an area of ​​five thousand square kilometres was breaking away from the Antarctic continent under the impact of rising temperature. It seems that Trump’s act is beyond ecological consideration as he believes the agreement could “cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025”. Projections of climate change, however, have shown horrible scenarios involving a central economic metropolis such as New York losing much of its lands because of rising sea levels. The inhabitants of such areas will have to uproot their communities and cultures to move to less vulnerable lands. Thus, it is important to examine how ecoutopian literature is responding to the conditions of the human being in this epoch. In the following interview, Heather Alberro has answered to some questions on climate change, the conditions of human being in the Anthropocene, and the role of literature and culture in relation to environmental issues.

scholarly journals ‘Hooks’ and ‘Anchors’ for relational ecosystem-based marine management

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Jane Macpherson ◽  
Stephen C. Urlich ◽  
Hamish G. Rennie ◽  
Adrienne Paul ◽  
Karen Fisher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Indigenous Rights ◽  
Marine Spatial Planning ◽  
Marine Management ◽  
Laws And Policies ◽  
High Level ◽  
Interdisciplinary Study ◽  
The Impact

There remains uncertainty about the legal and policy tools, processes and institutions needed to support ecosystem-based marine management (EBM). This article relies on an interdisciplinary study of ecosystem-based language and approaches in the laws and policies of New Zealand, Australia and Chile, which uncovered important lessons for implementing EBM around the need to accept regulatory fragmentation, provide effective resourcing, respect and give effect to Indigenous rights, and avoid conflating EBM with conventional approaches to marine spatial planning. We suggest a new way of thinking about EBM as a ‘relational’ process; requiring laws, policies and institutions to support its dynamic process of dialogue, negotiation and adjustment. We argue that relational EBM can be best supported by a combination of detailed rule and institution-making (hooks) and high- level norm-setting (anchors). With its focus on relationships within and between humans and nature, relational EBM may enable new ways to secure cross-government collaboration and community buy-in, as well as having inbuilt adaptability to the dynamics of the marine environment and the impact of climate change at different scales.

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