Cleavage Types and Conflict in Multiethnic States
This chapter tests the structural part of the book’s theory from a global perspective. It analyzes the relationship between ethnic cleavage types and the prevalence of different forms of ethnopolitical contention. Relying on large-n statistical analyses, it shows, first, that the extremely unequal colonial settler states experience fewer and less lethal ethnic civil conflicts but higher levels of peaceful ethnopolitical contention than the decolonized states and other multiethnic countries. These results are robust when considering the immediate postindependence period of the settler states and when testing for the possible endogeneity of cleavage types. Second, the chapter confirms that the theorized effects of hierarchization and social integration apply to all multiethnic states in general. Ethnic civil conflict is generally more likely the more segmented and less hierarchically structured multiethnic states are. Specifically, stable between-group hierarchies reduce the risk of governmental conflict, whereas segmentation only affects secessionist conflicts.