A Drought Warning System for Thailand
Thailand is located between 5°30' and 20°30'N latitudes and between 97°30' and 105°30'E longitudes. Geographically, the country can be divided into northern, northeastern, central, and southern regions. Most of the country experiences distinct wet and dry climates, except some parts of the southern region, which experience a wet and humid climate. Of the country’s total area (514,000 km2), 41% is under agricultural use (Office of Agricultural Economics, 1999) with 92% of it being rainfed. Drought normally occurs during the hot season (March–April) and sometimes during dry season (November–April) due to inadequate rains. In recent times, the occurrence of drought has increased in Thailand, threatening sustainability of agricultural production. According to Department of Local Administration (1998), droughts of varying intensity occur in 67 out of 76 provinces of Thailand almost every year. During the period from 1987 to 1997, drought impacted a total of 5.44 million ha of agricultural land, causing $1.4 billion in losses. Droughts of varying intensity or severity occur in different regions of Thailand. A drought is categorized as severe, moderate, slight, or none drought using a radiative index (RI) determined during the rainy season (May– October). The RI for a region is determined using the number of rainy days, percentage of irrigated area, groundwater availability, topography, land use, soil, drainage density, and watershed size. If RI ranges from 1.0 to 1.2 for 15 consecutive days for a region or area, the region is said to be affected by slight drought. If RI exceeds 1.2 for 30 consecutive days, the region is considered to be affected by moderate drought, and if RI exceeds 1.0 for more than 30 consecutive days, severe drought is said to have occurred in the region. Using these criteria, the percentage of area affected by different drought categories has been determined in Thailand. It can be observed from table 25.1 that the northeastern region is the most droughtprone in Thailand. A drought index, D, is also used to monitor drought conditions in Thailand.