Malthus in the Middle East
Using a Malthusian framework, Chapter 3 draws parallels between political economy of the Southeast Anatolian (Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi or GAP) dam project in Turkey that affects water flow to the downstream neighbors of Syria and Iraq on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) nearing completion on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia – a project that will impound waters destined for Egypt. It finds that in each case, geographical and hydropolitical positioning are the essential elements of downstream state insecurity and therefore a significant causes of deteriorating relations within the respective river basins. While noting that although the riparian states in question have long histories of tension and distrust, the historical record shows that the vast majority of global water disputes are settled peacefully. The chapter presents evidence that in the lower riparian states, rapid population growth, infrastructure development, and climate change present adverse and cumulative effects on water supplies and water management. The author concludes with the argument that the convergence of these factors points to a likely future of water scarcity-induced conflict absent the introduction of policies to boost irrigation efficiency and improve water governance.