Illicit Economies and Political Violence in Central Asia
This chapter examines low levels of terrorist violence in Muslim-majority societies. Studies of terrorism have tended to view the relationship between religion and violence through the narrow lens of security, thereby overpredicting the extent of terrorist violence across societies. After reviewing the various explanations for terrorist violence, and applying them to Central Asia, this chapter explores the conditions under which a state’s involvement in illicit economies—specifically its collusion in the drug trade—can dampen levels of terrorist violence. Combining quantitative analysis (including GIS-enabled tools) with a series of in-depth expert interviews conducted in Central Asia, it emphasizes the complex political economy of security that defines infrastructurally weak states, where political and security apparatuses are often immersed in informal and illicit economies. This approach helps uncover the complex links between religion and organized violence, where state apparatuses are often drawn into collaborative relationships with nonstate actors.