scholarly journals Who Votes by Post? Understanding the Drivers of Postal Voting in the 2019 British General Election

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Townsley ◽  
Stuart J Turnbull-Dugarte ◽  
Siim Trumm ◽  
Caitlin Milazzo
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
General Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Public Setting ◽  
Using Data

Abstract While most voters in democratic countries still cast their ballot on election day, the proportion of the electorate which opts for postal voting has been steadily, and often dramatically, increasing. This transformation in electoral politics, however, is under-researched, particularly with regards to the motivations underlying the decision to cast a postal vote. In this article, we analyse the factors that drive an individual to vote by post rather than at the polling station. Using data from the 2019 British Election Study, we show, among other findings, that citizens for whom in-person voting would entail higher costs, such as the elderly and disabled, are more likely to opt for the convenience of postal voting. In addition, we find that partisans are unlikely to vote by post, suggesting that they derive greater expressive benefits from voting in a public setting. Finally, our analysis demonstrates that constituency marginality matters when it comes to opting for postal voting: citizens in more competitive constituencies are significantly more likely to ensure their votes by casting their ballots by post rather than on election day.

No Republican, No Vote: Undervoting and Consequences of the Top-Two Primary System

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 292-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin A. Fisk
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Primary System ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Opting Out ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Senate Election ◽  
Using Data ◽  
New System

Washington and California adopted the Top-Two Primary in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Under this new system, all candidates regardless of party affiliation run against each other, narrowing the field down to the top two for the general election. In some jurisdictions, the general election features two candidates from the same party. Ten percent of California voters chose not to vote in the 2016 U.S. Senate election which featured two Democrats. Using data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (2012–2016), I find that among those who vote in the national November elections, orphans, or voters without a copartisan candidate on the ballot are more likely to undervote, opting out of voting in their congressional race. Levels of undervoting are nearly 20 percentage points higher for orphaned voters compared to non-orphaned voters. Additionally, voters who abstain perceive more ideological distance between themselves and the candidates compared to voters who cast a vote. These findings support a multi-step framework for vote decisions in same-party matchups: voters are more likely to undervote if they are unable to vote for a candidate from their party (partisan model), but all voters are more likely to vote for a candidate when they perceive ideological proximity (ideological model).

Official and Reported Turnout in the British General Election of 1987

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 537-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Swaddle ◽  
Anthony Heath
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
General Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Electoral Register ◽  
Official Rate ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Behaviour ◽  
Using Data

This Note looks afresh at the question of turnout in British general elections, using data gathered in the 1987 British General Election Study, together with information on the electoral behaviour of the sample, collected independently of the BGES survey. The official rate of turnout for Great Britain in 1987 (the number of votes cast over the number of entries on the electoral register) was around 75 per cent; that is to say, according to official figures, about one in four registered electors did not vote. In common with earlier surveys, the BGES indicates a much higher turnout figure than the official one; 86 per cent of respondents to the survey reported that they had voted.

scholarly journals Dementia Adjudication Triggers Associated With Increased Mortality for Older Australians: Evidence From ASPREE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 161-161
Author(s):  
Jane Banaszak-Holl ◽  
Xiaoping Lin ◽  
Jing Xie ◽  
Stephanie Ward ◽  
Henry Brodaty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Research Aims: This study seeks to understand whether those with dementia experience higher risk of death, using data from the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) clinical trial study. Methods: ASPREE was a primary intervention trial of low-dose aspirin among healthy older people. The Australian cohort included 16,703 dementia-free participants aged 70 years and over at enrolment. Participants were triggered for dementia adjudication if cognitive test results were poorer than expected, self-reporting dementia diagnosis or memory problems, or dementia medications were detected. Incidental dementia was adjudicated by an international adjudication committee using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria and results of a neuropsychological battery and functional measures with medical record substantiation. Statistical analyses used a cox proportional hazards model. Results: As previously reported, 1052 participants (5.5%) died during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up and 964 participants had a dementia trigger, of whom, 575 (60%) were adjucated as having dementia. Preliminary analyses has shown that the mortality rate was higher among participants with a dementia trigger, regardless of dementia adjudication outcome, than those without (15% vs 5%, Χ2 = 205, p <.001). Conclusion: This study will provide important analyses of differences in the hazard ratio for mortality and causes of death among people with and without cognitive impairment and has important implications on service planning.

Firearms and Suicide in Australia

1990 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 500-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher H. Cantor ◽  
Terry Lewin
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cultural Attitudes ◽  
Young Males ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Firearm Suicide ◽  
Proportional Increase ◽  
Using Data

Australia has a moderate overall suicide rate but an extremely high male firearm suicide rate. Using data covering the years 1961–1985, a series of multiple regression based analyses were performed. During this period, overall suicide rates fell but firearm suicides remained constant with a resulting increase in the proportion of suicides by firearms. There has been an increase in suicides in the young offset by a decline in the elderly. Young males showed the greatest proportional increase in the use of firearms. A limited regional analysis supported the hypothesis that lack of legislative restrictions on long guns in Queensland with a greater household prevalence of such weapons and different cultural attitudes were associated with higher overall and firearm suicide rates. Such findings are consistent with reports from North America, although trends in Australia are more modest. Reducing the availability and cultural acceptance of firearms is likely to decrease suicide rates, especially in males.

Position of Nepali Congress in the Electoral Politics of Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 32-42
Author(s):  
Amrit Kumar Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Representative Democracy ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Status ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Commission

Nepali Congress (NC) is one of the oldest political party of Nepal. It played a vital role to abolish the century long autocratic Rana rule in 1951. It fought against the party-less Panchayat system and the regressive step of the king. It opposes active kingship and communism. It believes in a representative democracy. It has participated in every election of Nepal that was conducted democratically. It won more than two-thirds majority seats in the first general election held in 1959. In every election, it stayed in the first or second position. This article tries to analyze the status of NC in the elections of Nepal. Data of seven general elections were examined in this article. Data were extracted basically from the reports of the Election Commission.

scholarly journals Impact of residence altitude on readmission in patients with heart failure

Open Heart ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. e000865
Author(s):  
Makoto Saito ◽  
Manami Yamaoka ◽  
Mayuri Ohzawa ◽  
Emi Tominaga ◽  
Kayo Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Left Ventricular Ejection ◽  
Administrative District ◽  
Ventricular Ejection Fraction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Lower Temperature ◽  
A Minor

ObjectiveMountain districts normally have tougher geographic conditions than plain districts, which might worsen heart failure (HF) conditions in patients. Also, those places frequently are associated with social problems of ageing, underpopulation and fewer medical services, which might cause delay in detection of disease progression and require more admissions. We investigated the association of residence altitude with readmission in patients with HF.MethodsWe followed 452 patients with HF to determine all-cause readmissions over a median of 1.1 years. The altitude of patient residences, population, proportion of the elderly and number of hospitals or clinics in a minor administrative district (Cho-Aza district) located at the residences were examined using data from the 2010 census and Google Maps.ResultsAll-cause readmissions were observed in 269 (60%) patients. The altitude of ≥200  m was significantly associated with readmissions (HR, 1.49; 95 % CI 1.12 to 1.96; p=0.006) after adjustment for physical and haemodynamic parameters, left ventricular ejection fraction, brain natriuretic peptide and components of the established score for predicting readmission for HF. Altitude was significantly associated with ageing, underpopulation, fewer hospitals or clinics and lower temperature (all p<0.01), with an increased tendency for readmission during the winter season; however, it was not associated with patient clinical parameters.ConclusionsHigh altitude residence may be an important predictor for readmission in patients with HF. This relationship may be confounded by unfavourable sociogeographic conditions at higher altitudes.

scholarly journals Trends in mortality from ill-defined causes among the elderly in Brazil, 1979-2013: ecological study

2016 ◽  
Vol 134 (5) ◽  
pp. 437-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davi Félix Martins Junior ◽  
Ridalva Dias Martins Felzemburg ◽  
Acácia Batista Dias ◽  
Tania Maria Costa ◽  
Pedro Nascimento Prates Santos
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Study ◽  
Temporal Trend ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Proportional Mortality ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Health Situation

ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Mortality measurements are traditionally used as health indicators and are useful in describing a population's health situation through reporting injuries that lead to death. The aim here was to analyze the temporal trend of proportional mortality from ill-defined causes (IDCs) among the elderly in Brazil from 1979 to 2013. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological study using data from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: The proportional mortality from IDCs among the elderly was calculated for each year of the study series (1979 to 2013) in Brazil, and the data were disaggregated according to sex and to the five geographical regions and states. To analyze time trends, simple linear regression coefficients were calculated. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 2,646,194 deaths from IDCs among the elderly, with a decreasing trend (ß -0.545; confidence interval, CI: -0.616 to -0.475; P < 0.000) for both males and females. This reduction was also observed in the macroregions and states, except for Amapá. The states in the northeastern region reported an average reduction of 80%. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from IDCs among the elderly has decreased continuously since 1985, but at different rates among the different regions and states. Actions aimed at improving data records on death certificates need to be strengthened in order to continue the trend observed.

Did They Mind the Gap? Voter/Party Ideological Proximity between the BQ, the NDP and Quebec Voters, 2006–2011

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Gauvin ◽  
Chris Chhim ◽  
Mike Medeiros
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Longitudinal Approach ◽  
The Face ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe 2011 Canadian federal election results changed the face of federal politics in Quebec. In a sudden and spectacular reversal of electoral fortunes, BQ support crumbled while that of the NDP surged. While most commentators focused exclusively on the 2011 election itself to explain what had happened, we offer an interpretation that takes a longitudinal approach. Using data from the Canadian Election Study and political party manifestos from 2006 to 2011, we propose a three-dimensional proximity model of voter/party congruence to explore the evolution of the ideological stances of Quebec voters and parties. Empirical results suggest these ideological distances between the NDP and Quebec voters decreased over time, whereas the BQ has distanced itself from voters. Furthermore, ideological distances between party and voters are a significant predictor of vote.

The Role of Manual Occupation in the Aetiology of Dupuytren’s Disease in Men in England and Wales

2004 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. KHAN ◽  
O. J. RIDER ◽  
C. U. JAYADEV ◽  
C. HERAS-PALOU ◽  
H. GIELE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Elderly ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Social Classes ◽  
Dupuytren’S Disease ◽  
Dupuytren's Disease ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Occupational Social Class ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Manual Occupation

We compared the incidence of significant Dupuytren’s disease in men across occupational social classes in England and Wales, using data from the National Morbidity Survey. We found that manual occupational social class was not associated with an increased incidence of Dupuytren’s disease. In fact, the incidence rates of Dupuytren’s disease in the elderly were higher in non-manual than in manual social classes.

scholarly journals Oh Jeremy Corbyn! Why did Labour Party membership soar after the 2015 general election?

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Whiteley ◽  
Monica Poletti ◽  
Paul Webb ◽  
Tim Bale
Keyword(s):  
Relative Deprivation ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Party Members ◽  
Project Data ◽  
First Time ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn

This article investigates the remarkable surge in individual membership of the Labour Party after the general election of May 2015, particularly after Jeremy Corbyn was officially nominated as a candidate for the leadership in June of that year. Using both British Election Study and Party Members Project data, we explain the surge by focussing on the attitudinal, ideological and demographic characteristics of the members themselves. Findings suggest that, along with support for the leader and yearning for a new style of politics, feelings of relative deprivation played a significant part: many ‘left-behind’ voters (some well-educated, some less so) joined Labour for the first time when a candidate with a clearly radical profile appeared on the leadership ballot. Anti-capitalist and left-wing values mattered too, particularly for those former members who decided to return to the party.

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