scholarly journals Why are we not evaluating multiple competing hypotheses in ecology and evolution?

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 160756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo S. Betini ◽  
Tal Avgar ◽  
John M. Fryxell
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Scientific Investigation ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Potential Influence ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Multiple Hypotheses ◽  
Strong Inference ◽  
Competing Hypotheses ◽  
Working Hypotheses

The use of multiple working hypotheses to gain strong inference is widely promoted as a means to enhance the effectiveness of scientific investigation. Only 21 of 100 randomly selected studies from the ecological and evolutionary literature tested more than one hypothesis and only eight tested more than two hypotheses. The surprising rarity of application of multiple working hypotheses suggests that this gap between theory and practice might reflect some fundamental issues. Here, we identify several intellectual and practical barriers that discourage us from using multiple hypotheses in our scientific investigation. While scientists have developed a number of ways to avoid biases, such as the use of double-blind controls, we suspect that few scientists are fully aware of the potential influence of cognitive bias on their decisions and they have not yet adopted many techniques available to overcome intellectual and practical barriers in order to improve scientific investigation.

The Scientific Hypothesis Today

2019 ◽  
pp. 31-60
Author(s):  
Bradley E. Alger
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Method ◽  
Karl Popper ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Critical Rationalism ◽  
Multiple Hypotheses ◽  
Scientific Hypothesis ◽  
Strong Inference ◽  
Key Features ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Good Hypothesis

Chapter 2 begins by reviewing the concept of the Scientific Method, as well as many outdated definitions of “hypothesis.” The discussion leads to the modern definition of the hypothesis as a conjectural explanation for a phenomenon; it is testable and falsifiable. The hypothesis serves as a blueprint and a summary of an investigation. Certain criticisms of the hypothesis and hypothesis-driven research are based on the older definitions of the term, and the book returns to them later. This chapter identifies and defines, with simple, nontechnical examples, concepts associated with the hypothesis, such as prediction and direct and indirect measurements. The philosophical programs of Karl Popper and John Platt, Critical Rationalism and Strong Inference, respectively, form a major focus of the chapter. The chapter explores the complexities of the concepts of falsification and corroboration and the importance of having multiple hypotheses. The chapter introduces the idea of the implicit hypothesis and ends with the presentation and discussion of key features of a good hypothesis.

The Reproducibility Crisis

2019 ◽  
pp. 161-195
Author(s):  
Bradley E. Alger
Keyword(s):  
Nature Of Science ◽  
Scientific Investigation ◽  
Central Issue ◽  
Experimental Science ◽  
Weak Point ◽  
Multiple Tests ◽  
Multiple Hypotheses ◽  
Systematic Effort

This chapter reviews and evaluates reports that scientists often cannot repeat, or “reproduce” published work. It begins by defining what “reproducibility” means and how reproducibility applies to various kinds of science. The focus then shifts to the Reproducibility Project: Psychology, which was a systematic effort to repeat published findings in psychology, and which gave rise to many of the present concerns about reproducibility. The chapter critically examines the Reproducibility Project and points out how the nature of science and the complexity of nature can stymie the best attempts at reproducibility. The chapter also reviews the statistical criticisms of science that John Ioannidis and Katherine Button and their colleagues have raised. The hypothesis is a central issue because it is inconsistently defined across various branches of science. The statisticians’ strongest attacks are directed against work that differs from most laboratory experimental science. A weak point in the reasoning behind the Reproducibility Project and the statistical arguments is the assumption that a multi-pronged scientific investigation can be legitimately criticized by close examination of one of its components. Experimental science relies on multiple tests and multiple hypotheses to arrive at its conclusions. Reproducibility is a valid concern for science; it is not a “crisis.”

Strategies of Rule Discovery in an Inference Task

1980 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan D. Tweney ◽  
Michael E. Doherty ◽  
Winifred J. Worner ◽  
Daniel B. Pliske ◽  
Clifford R. Mynatt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rule Discovery ◽  
Psychological Study ◽  
The Third ◽  
Multiple Hypotheses ◽  
Scientific Inference ◽  
Series Of Experiments ◽  
Strong Inference ◽  
Fourth Experiment ◽  
Inference Task

It has long been known that subjects in certain inference tasks will seek evidence which can confirm their present hypotheses, even in situations where disconfirmatory evidence could be more informative. We sought to alter this tendency in a series of experiments which employed a rule discovery task, the 2-4-6 problem first described by Wason. The first experiment instructionally modified subjects confirmatory tendencies. While a disconfirmatory strategy was easily induced, it did not lead to greater efficiency in discovering the rule. The second experiment introduced subjects to the possibility of disconfirmation only after they had developed a strongly held hypothesis through the use of confirmatory evidence. This manipulation also failed to alter the efficiency of rule discovery. In the third experiment, subjects were taught to use multiple hypotheses at each step, in the manner of Platt's “Strong Inference”. This operation actually worsened performance. Finally, in the fourth experiment, the structure of the problem was altered slightly by asking subjects to seek two interrelated rules. A dramatic increase in performance resulted, perhaps because information which in previous tasks was seen as merely erroneous could now be related to an alternative rule. The four studies have broad implications for the psychological study of inference processes in general, and for the study of scientific inference in particular.

scholarly journals “Say hello to Halo”: the halo effect in sports

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 116-129
Author(s):  
Gerd Nufer
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Halo Effect ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Sport Fans ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Soccer Team

In daily life, people tend to use mental shortcuts to simplify and speed up their decision-making processes. A halo effect exists if the impression created by a dominant attribute influences how other attributes of an object or subject are judged. It involves a cognitive bias that leads to distorted assessments. However, the halo effect has barely been researched in a sports-related context, although it can substantially contribute to understanding how sport fans think and behave. The objective of this paper is to answer the question that is of interest for both theory and practice of sports marketing: Is there a halo effect in sports? Does the sporting success or failure of a professional soccer team radiate or even outshine other sports-related and non-sports aspects and influence or distort how the club is perceived by its fans? Fans of six soccer clubs selected from the first German soccer league Bundesliga were interviewed. This paper presents the results of an empirical study based on a data set consisting of a total of 4,180 cases. The results of the analyses substantiate the distortion of the fans’ perception with regard to a very diverse range of aspects that is triggered by the sporting success or failure of their favorite club.

Effects of Acute Alcohol Consumption on Food Intake and Pictorial Stroop Response to High-Calorie Food Cues

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Adams ◽  
Elise Wijk
Keyword(s):  
Food Intake ◽  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Food Craving ◽  
Food Cues ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Acute Dose ◽  
Double Blind Design ◽  
Energy Dense Food

Abstract Aims We examined (a) the effect of an acute dose of alcohol on the consumption of energy-dense food and (b) on cognitive bias towards high-energy-dense food cues and (3) whether the effect of an acute dose of alcohol on the consumption of energy-dense food would be mediated by cognitive bias towards high-energy-dense food cues. Methods Heavy social drinkers (n = 40) abstained from drinking for 12 hours before testing. On the test day, participants completed pre-challenge measures of alcohol and food craving, and cognitive bias towards alcohol in a placebo-controlled, double-blind design. Participants performed post-challenge measures of alcohol and food craving, ad lib energy-dense food consumption and cognitive bias. Results We did not observe any of the hypothesized interactions between challenge condition, consumption of energy-dense food and cognitive bias towards high-energy-dense food cues. Conclusions Our data suggest that acute alcohol consumption does not influence the consumption of energy-dense food or cognitive bias towards high-energy-dense food cues. These findings may reflect that alcohol does not increase the appetitive value of food and food-related cues or that the measures used in this study were not sensitive to detect an effect. Further research is required to determine whether alcohol at higher doses and/or food cues that are frequently paired with alcohol intake stimulates changes in food intake and the reward value of food cues.

scholarly journals HTML5 Authoring Tool to Support the Teaching-Learning Process

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 92-103
Author(s):  
Dauster Souza Pereira ◽  
José Valdeni de Lima ◽  
Rafaela Ribeiro Jardim ◽  
Paulo Santana Rocha ◽  
Francisco Euder dos Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Learning Process ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Educational Resources ◽  
Authoring Tool ◽  
Teaching Material ◽  
Authoring Tools ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Teaching Learning

The objective of this experiment report was to describe the development of studies of authorship tools and creation of educational resources carried out in 2017 by 12 students of the Doctoral Course in “Informatics in Education” of the “Anonymous Institution - Details omitted for double-blind reviewing”, 6 students of the Teleducation discipline and 6 students of the discipline of Hyperdocuments as Teaching Material. The impacts of the use of an authoring tool in the teaching-learning process were explored, focusing the analysis in descriptive aspects. It was concluded that the use of H5P contributed to discussions and reflections on authoring tools, also it was possible to establish an effective relationship between theory and practice, and its use proved to be satisfactory as well as promising for the teaching-learning process.

The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias

2020 ◽  
pp. 61-104
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Peer Review ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Epistemic Justification ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Current Version ◽  
Analytical Technique ◽  
Competing Hypotheses ◽  
Do So

The chapter examines the ability of current versions of the structured analytical technique, assessment of competing hypotheses (ACH) to provide theoretically valid methodologies for establishing justified beliefs in intelligence analysis, to cope with the higher risk of epistemic complexity in intelligence analysis, and to mitigate or reduce cognitive bias. It argues that no current version of ACH provides a theoretically valid mechanism to establish justification for beliefs, or to cope with epistemic complexity, but that the method can be adapted to do so. It also argues that no current version of ACH provides a theoretically valid mechanism to mitigate the risk of cognitive bias, but that the method could be adapted to make the occurrence of some cognitive biases visible to peer review.

scholarly journals Strong Fuzzy EHLFS: A General Conceptual Framework to Address Past Records of Environmental, Ecological and Cultural Change

Quaternary ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentí Rull
Keyword(s):  
Cultural History ◽  
Cultural Change ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Inference Method ◽  
History Of ◽  
Fundamental Research ◽  
Strong Inference ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Working Hypotheses ◽  
Human Landscape

Although the interpretation of Quaternary records of interrelated environmental–ecological–human processes is necessarily complex, it is often addressed using too-simple deterministic approaches. This paper suggests a holistic framework called EHLFS (Environmental–Human–Landscape Feedbacks and Synergies) to tackle Quaternary complexity. The EHLFS scheme is a multiple-working-hypotheses framework, able to account for the particular nature of Quaternary research, and is used in combination with the strong inference method of hypothesis testing. The resulting system is called the strong fuzzy EHLFS approach. This approach is explained in some detail and compared with the more extended simplistic determinisms—namely the environmental determinism and the human determinism—as well as with dual determinisms or deterministic approaches based on two contrasting and apparently contradictory and excluding hypotheses or theories. The application of the strong EHLFS methodology is illustrated using the Late Holocene ecological and cultural history of Easter Island since its initial human settlement, a topic that has traditionally been addressed using simplistic and dual deterministic approaches. The strong fuzzy EHLFS approach seems to be a robust framework to address past complex issues where environment, humans and landscape interact, as well as an open system able to encompass new challenging evidence and thorough changes in fundamental research questions.

Cultural Indoctrination in Global Hypercompetition

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning Theory ◽  
International Management ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Potential Influence ◽  
Cultural Backgrounds ◽  
International Human Resource Management ◽  
Organizational Function ◽  
International Human ◽  
Values Orientation

This article examines the potential influence of cultural indoctrination (CI) on international management and corporate performance today in an era of global hypercompetition. The specific organizational function targeted in this work is international human resource management (IHRM). As organizations are confronted with the need to engage with stakeholders from a variety of different cultural backgrounds, the need to understand the ways in which cultural imperatives play into individual and collective performances becomes increasingly important. Based on an encompassing literature review, this article examines the following seven factors which should be included in CI: Child Development, Cultural Institutionalization, Cultural Intelligence, Social Learning Theory, Religion, Social Capital, and Values Orientation Theory (VOT). It is from these factors that a conceptual framework is developed for potential future application in IHRM theory and practice.

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