scholarly journals Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carrie A. Manore ◽  
Richard S. Ostfeld ◽  
Folashade B. Agusto ◽  
Holly Gaff ◽  
Shannon L. LaDeau
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Vector Ecology ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractThe recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease, however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler toAe. albopictusand then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality.Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model predicts that one of every two infectious travelers arriving at peak mosquito season could initiate local transmission and > 10% of the introductions could generate a disease outbreak of at least 100 people. DespiteAe. albopictuspropensity for biting non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of disease in humans, even in temperate cities.Author SummaryZika and chikungunya viruses are transmitted byAedesmosquitoes, includingAe. albopictus, which is abundant in many temperate cities. While disease risk is lower in temperate regions where viral amplification cannot build across years, there is significant potential for localized disease outbreaks in urban populations. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of virus from an infected traveler toAe. albopictusand then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. The model predicts that one of every two infectious travelers arriving at peak mosquito season could initiate local transmission and > 10% of the introductions could generate a disease outbreak of >100 people.Classification: Ecology

scholarly journals Host size and proximity to diseased neighbours drive the spread of a coral disease outbreak in Hawai‘i

2018 ◽  
Vol 285 (1870) ◽  
pp. 20172265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie M. Caldwell ◽  
Megan J. Donahue ◽  
C. Drew Harvell
Keyword(s):  
Disease Risk ◽  
Coral Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Host Size ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Wildlife Diseases ◽  
Infectious Individual ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Affected Tissue

Understanding how disease risk varies over time and across heterogeneous populations is critical for managing disease outbreaks, but this information is rarely known for wildlife diseases. Here, we demonstrate that variation in host and pathogen factors drive the direction, duration and intensity of a coral disease outbreak. We collected longitudinal health data for 200 coral colonies, and found that disease risk increased with host size and severity of diseased neighbours, and disease spread was highest among individuals between 5 and 20 m apart. Disease risk increased by 2% with every 10 cm increase in host size. Healthy colonies with severely diseased neighbours (greater than 75% affected tissue) were 1.6 times more likely to develop disease signs compared with colonies with moderately diseased neighbours (25–75% affected tissue). Force of infection ranged from 7 to 20 disease cases per 1000 colonies (mean = 15 cases per 1000 colonies). The effective reproductive ratio, or average number of secondary infections per infectious individual, ranged from 0.16 to 1.22. Probability of transmission depended strongly on proximity to diseased neighbours, which demonstrates that marine disease spread can be highly constrained within patch reefs.

scholarly journals DAMPAK POPULASI DAN MOBILITAS PERKOTAAN TERHADAP PENYEBARAN PANDEMI COVID-19 DI JAKARTA

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Rizki Adriadi Ghiffari
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Urban Mobility ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
The City ◽  
Poor Population ◽  
Local Transmission

 The Covid-19 disease outbreak has spread to more than 200 countries, including Indonesia. Epicenter of the spread of the disease is in big cities that have been designated as local transmission, including the city of Jakarta. In addition to the ability of virus transmission, the spread of infectious diseases directly is also influenced by the characteristics of the population and human mobility as a breeding ground for viruses. Based on the results of the correlation test, it was found that mobility within the city and external mobility, had an intermediate effect on the spread of COVID-19 disease. While the human development index, population growth, poor population, and vulnerable age variables also have a low impact on the spread of this disease. The ability to detect and respond to large-scale disease outbreaks is needed, and effective population mobility restrictions are needed to control the spread of this disease.Key words: Urban Demographic, Urban Mobility, Covid-19 Pandemic  Wabah penyakit Covid-19 telah menyebar ke lebih dari 200 negara, termasuk Indonesia. Episentrum penyebaran penyakit berada di kota-kota besar yang telah ditetapkan sebagai transmisi lokal, diantaranya Kota Jakarta. Selain kemampuan penularan virus, penyebaran penyakit menular langsung juga dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik populasi dan mobilitas manusia sebagai inang perkembangbiakan virus. Berdasarkan hasil uji korelasi didapatkan bahwa mobilitas di dalam kota dan mobilitas dari luar kota, berpengaruh dalam tingkat menengah terhadap penyebaran penyakit COVID-19. Sedangkan variabel indeks pembangunan manusia, pertumbuhan penduduk, penduduk usia rentan, penduduk miskin  juga berpengaruh secara rendah terhadap penyebaran penyakit ini. Diperlukan kemampuan mendeteksi dan merespon wabah penyakit skala besar, serta pembatasan mobilitas penduduk yang efektif untuk dapat mengendalikan penyebaran penyakit ini.Kata Kunci: Karakteristik Demografi, Mobilitas Penduduk, Pandemi Covid-19

scholarly journals Simulation of leaf curl disease dynamics in chili for strategic management options

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Buddhadeb Roy ◽  
Shailja Dubey ◽  
Amalendu Ghosh ◽  
Shalu Misra Shukla ◽  
Bikash Mandal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Risk ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Host Population ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Vector Population ◽  
Leaf Curl

AbstractLeaf curl, a whitefly-borne begomovirus disease, is the cause of frequent epidemic in chili. In the present study, transmission parameters involved in tripartite interaction are estimated to simulate disease dynamics in a population dynamics model framework. Epidemic is characterized by a rapid conversion rate of healthy host population into infectious type. Infection rate as basic reproduction number, R0 = 13.54, has indicated a high rate of virus transmission. Equilibrium population of infectious host and viruliferous vector are observed to be sensitive to the immigration parameter. A small increase in immigration rate of viruliferous vector increased the population of both infectious host and viruliferous vector. Migrant viruliferous vectors, acquisition, and transmission rates as major parameters in the model indicate leaf curl epidemic is predominantly a vector -mediated process. Based on underlying principles of temperature influence on vector population abundance and transmission parameters, spatio-temporal pattern of disease risk predicted is noted to correspond with leaf curl distribution pattern in India. Temperature in the range of 15–35 °C plays an important role in epidemic as both vector population and virus transmission are influenced by temperature. Assessment of leaf curl dynamics would be a useful guide to crop planning and evolution of efficient management strategies.

scholarly journals Findings From the Understanding Patterns of Healthy Aging Among Men Who Have Sex With Men Project

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 823-824
Author(s):  
Mark Brennan-Ing ◽  
Michael Plankey ◽  
Deborah Gustafson
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Healthy Aging ◽  
Research Policy ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Hiv Status ◽  
Gay Community ◽  
Regulatory Strategies ◽  
Sex With Men

Abstract In 1984, the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) was started to identify factors in the HIV epidemic related to disease risk and treatment progression among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in four urban areas in the US: Baltimore, MD/Washington, D.C.; Chicago, IL; Pittsburgh, PA, and Los Angeles, CA. MACS participants complete biannual study visits involving HIV testing, biometric screenings, and psychosocial data collection. In 2015 a MACS sub-study, the Understanding Patterns of Healthy Aging among MSM Project (HAMSM), was started to better understand resiliencies promoting well-being among MSM age 40 and older, including those with HIV. HAMSM has helped us to understand aging trajectories among MSM, and provides a unique combination of physiological and psychosocial data that can inform efforts to support MSM in healthy aging. This symposium will present emerging findings from the HAMSM study. Our first paper examines the relationships between psychological connection to the gay community (PSOC) and developmental regulatory strategies associated with health behaviors and more positive self-appraisals. The second paper examines how PSOC is related to HIV risk reduction behaviors, and if there are differences in such behaviors based on HIV status. Our third paper considers how self-perceptions of aging (age discrepancy, aging satisfaction) are related to frailty and frailty transitions, and if these relationships differ by HIV status. The final paper examines the relationship of social support to frailty among MSM by HIV status. Implications of these findings for research, policy, and programs targeting MSM will be discussed.

scholarly journals Temporal Evolution of Immunity Distributions in a Population with Waning and Boosting

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
M. V. Barbarossa ◽  
M. Polner ◽  
G. Röst
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Periodic Disease ◽  
Evolution Of Immunity

We investigate the temporal evolution of the distribution of immunities in a population, which is determined by various epidemiological, immunological, and demographical phenomena: after a disease outbreak, recovered individuals constitute a large immune population; however, their immunity is waning in the long term and they may become susceptible again. Meanwhile, their immunity can be boosted by repeated exposure to the pathogen, which is linked to the density of infected individuals present in the population. This prolongs the length of their immunity. We consider a mathematical model formulated as a coupled system of ordinary and partial differential equations that connects all these processes and systematically compare a number of boosting assumptions proposed in the literature, showing that different boosting mechanisms lead to very different stationary distributions of the immunity at the endemic steady state. In the situation of periodic disease outbreaks, the waveforms of immunity distributions are studied and visualized. Our results show that there is a possibility to infer the boosting mechanism from the population level immune dynamics.

scholarly journals Growth curve of Atlantoscia floridana (van Name) (Crustacea, Isopoda, Philosciidae) from a Brazilian Restinga Forest

2004 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Beatriz Araujo ◽  
Georgina Bond-Buckup
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
Differential Growth ◽  
Estimate Life Expectancy ◽  
Males And Females

The terrestrial isopod Atlantoscia floridana (van Name, 1940) occurs from the U.S.A. (Florida) to Brazil and Argentina. In the southernmost Brazilian State, Rio Grande do Sul, the species is recorded in many localities, in urban and in non-urban areas. The growth curve of Atlantoscia floridana based on field data is presented. The specimens were sampled from April, 2000 to October, 2001 at the Reserva Biológica do Lami (RBL), Rio Grande do Sul. Captured individuals were sexed and had their cephalothorax width measured, with the data analyzed with von Bertalanffy's model. The growth curves for males and females are described, respectively, by the equations: Wt = 1.303 [1 - e-0.00941 (t + 50.37)] and Wt = 1.682 [1 - e-0.00575 (t + 59.13)]. The curves showed differential growth between sexes, where females reach a higher Wµ with a slower growth rate. Based on the growth curves it was also possible to estimate life expectancy for males and females.

scholarly journals Evaluation of dust and trace metal estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 883-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. Appel ◽  
G. A. Pouliot ◽  
H. Simon ◽  
G. Sarwar ◽  
H. O. T. Pye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Trace Metals ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Model Version

Abstract. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transformation, transport, and fate of the many different air pollutant species that comprise particulate matter (PM), including dust (or soil). The CMAQ model version 5.0 (CMAQv5.0) has several enhancements over the previous version of the model for estimating the emission and transport of dust, including the ability to track the specific elemental constituents of dust and have the model-derived concentrations of those elements participate in chemistry. The latest version of the model also includes a parameterization to estimate emissions of dust due to wind action. The CMAQv5.0 modeling system was used to simulate the entire year 2006 for the continental United States, and the model estimates were evaluated against daily surface-based measurements from several air quality networks. The CMAQ modeling system overall did well replicating the observed soil concentrations in the western United States (mean bias generally around ±0.5 μg m−3); however, the model consistently overestimated the observed soil concentrations in the eastern United States (mean bias generally between 0.5–1.5 μg m−3), regardless of season. The performance of the individual trace metals was highly dependent on the network, species, and season, with relatively small biases for Fe, Al, Si, and Ti throughout the year at the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites, while Ca, K, and Mn were overestimated and Mg underestimated. For the urban Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) sites, Fe, Mg, and Mn, while overestimated, had comparatively better performance throughout the year than the other trace metals, which were consistently overestimated, including very large overestimations of Al (380%), Ti (370%) and Si (470%) in the fall. An underestimation of nighttime mixing in the urban areas appears to contribute to the overestimation of trace metals. Removing the anthropogenic fugitive dust (AFD) emissions and the effects of wind-blown dust (WBD) lowered the model soil concentrations. However, even with both AFD emissions and WBD effects removed, soil concentrations were still often overestimated, suggesting that there are other sources of errors in the modeling system that contribute to the overestimation of soil components. Efforts are underway to improve both the nighttime mixing in urban areas and the spatial and temporal distribution of dust-related emission sources in the emissions inventory.

scholarly journals Development of a biking index for measuring Mediterranean cities mobility

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
L. Ros-McDonnell ◽  
M.V. De-la-Fuente ◽  
D. Ros-McDonnell ◽  
M. Cardós
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Survey Methodology ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Urban Transport ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Sustainable Mobility ◽  
Mobility Index ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Motorized Vehicles

<p>The European Union, its member states and local authorities have been working for long time on the design of solutions for future sustainable mobility. The promotion of a sustainable and affordable urban transport contemplates the bicycle as a mean of transport. The reasons for analysing the cycling mobility in urban areas, has its origin in the confrontation with motorized vehicles, as a sustainable response to the environment. In this context of sustainable mobility, the research team has studied the use of bicycles in Mediterranean cities, specifically in coastal tourist areas.  The present work shows the development of a mobility index oriented to the bicycle, transport that competes with the private vehicle. By means of a survey methodology, the research group proceeded to collect field data and the subsequent analysis of them, for the development of a mobility index adapted to bicycle mobility, and with possibilities to adapt to urban environments.</p>

scholarly journals SOIL MANAGEMENT IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT: TODAY AND FUTURE

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-71
Author(s):  
Bogdan Stanescu ◽  
Adriana Cuciureanu
Keyword(s):  
Performance Management ◽  
Urban Environment ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Soil Protection ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Residential Areas

The present article presents the expertise realized by the Department of Environmental Monitoring Pollution Evaluation within the INCD ECOIND, in the evaluation of the quality of urban soils in the municipality of Bucharest and the main big cities in Romania. The current data available at the level of the 27 member states of the European Union show that annually over 100,000 hectares of land are introduced into the urban environment, a direct consequence of the development of cities. There are a number of legislative obstacles to strategic soil protection measures. Moreover, at the level of the local authorities there is a conflict regarding the measures of soil protection in the long term, on the one hand, and, the accelerated economic development in the short term, on the other. European environmental experts consider that the urban development, absolutely necessary for the economic growth, requires an adequate management of the natural resources in order for the development to be done on a sustainable basis, respectively to follow a series of strategic objectives. In our country, at least in the last decade, we find on a large scale the conversion of industrial areas into commercial or residential areas. The footprint of industrial activities can be found even after long periods of time present by identifying the remnant of soil pollution or in those areas known as historically polluted (for example the town of Copsa Mica). The conclusions stemming from the assessment of pollution in urban areas over large areas, in correlation with the potential sources of pollution, underline the need to monitor the quality of soils in the urban environment, but also to apply a performance management in order to protect this natural resource in the long term.

scholarly journals Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (30) ◽  
pp. 8041-8046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huaiyu Tian ◽  
Pengbo Yu ◽  
Bernard Cazelles ◽  
Lei Xu ◽  
Hua Tan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Focal Point ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Central China ◽  
Hantaan Virus ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
System Temperature ◽  
Human Infections ◽  
Long Timescales

Hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen, has a global distribution with 200,000 human infections diagnosed annually. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus infections have been reported in Eurasia and America. These outbreaks have led to public concern and an interest in understanding the underlying biological mechanisms. Here, we propose a climate–animal–Hantaan virus (HTNV) infection model to address this issue, using a unique dataset spanning a 54-y period (1960–2013). This dataset comes from Central China, a focal point for natural HTNV infection, and includes both field surveillance and an epidemiological record. We reveal that the 8-y cycle of HTNV outbreaks is driven by the confluence of the cyclic dynamics of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) populations and climate variability, at both seasonal and interannual cycles. Two climatic variables play key roles in the ecology of the HTNV system: temperature and rainfall. These variables account for the dynamics in the host reservoir system and markedly affect both the rate of transmission and the potential risk of outbreaks. Our results suggest that outbreaks of HTNV infection occur only when climatic conditions are favorable for both rodent population growth and virus transmission. These findings improve our understanding of how climate drives the periodic reemergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks over long timescales.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document