scholarly journals Temporal Evolution of Immunity Distributions in a Population with Waning and Boosting

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
M. V. Barbarossa ◽  
M. Polner ◽  
G. Röst
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Periodic Disease ◽  
Evolution Of Immunity

We investigate the temporal evolution of the distribution of immunities in a population, which is determined by various epidemiological, immunological, and demographical phenomena: after a disease outbreak, recovered individuals constitute a large immune population; however, their immunity is waning in the long term and they may become susceptible again. Meanwhile, their immunity can be boosted by repeated exposure to the pathogen, which is linked to the density of infected individuals present in the population. This prolongs the length of their immunity. We consider a mathematical model formulated as a coupled system of ordinary and partial differential equations that connects all these processes and systematically compare a number of boosting assumptions proposed in the literature, showing that different boosting mechanisms lead to very different stationary distributions of the immunity at the endemic steady state. In the situation of periodic disease outbreaks, the waveforms of immunity distributions are studied and visualized. Our results show that there is a possibility to infer the boosting mechanism from the population level immune dynamics.

scholarly journals Temporal evolution of immunity distributions in a population with waning and boosting

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. Barbarossa ◽  
M. Polner ◽  
G. Röst
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Periodic Disease ◽  
Ams Classification ◽  
Evolution Of Immunity

AbstractWe investigate the temporal evolution of the distribution of immunities in a population, which is determined by various epidemiological, immunological and demographical phenomena: after a disease outbreak, recovered individuals constitute a large immune population, however their immunity is waning in the long term and they may become susceptible again. Meanwhile, their immunity can be boosted by repeated exposure to the pathogen, which is linked to the density of infected individuals present in the population. This prolongs the length of their immunity.We consider a mathematical model formulated as a coupled system of ordinary and partial differential equations, that connects all these processes, and systematically compare a number of boosting assumptions proposed in the literature, showing that different boosting mechanisms lead to very different stationary distributions of the immunity at the endemic steady state. In the situation of periodic disease outbreaks, the waveforms of immunity distributions are studied and visualized. Our results show that there is a possibility to infer the boosting mechanism from the population level immune-dynamics.AMS Classification92D30, 34K60, 34K34, 37M05

scholarly journals Long-Term Monitoring of Amphibian Populations of a National Park in Northern Spain Reveals Negative Persisting Effects of Ranavirus, but Not Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Bosch ◽  
Amparo Mora-Cabello de Alba ◽  
Susana Marquínez ◽  
Stephen J. Price ◽  
Barbora Thumsová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Parks ◽  
National Park ◽  
Batrachochytrium Dendrobatidis ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Emerging Pathogens ◽  
Northern Spain ◽  
Amphibian Chytrid Fungus

Amphibians are the most highly threatened vertebrates, and emerging pathogens are a serious threat to their conservation. Amphibian chytrid fungi and the viruses of the Ranavirus genus are causing disease outbreaks worldwide, including in protected areas such as National Parks. However, we lack information about their effect over amphibian populations in the long-term, and sometimes these mortality episodes are considered as transient events without serious consequences over longer time-spans. Here, we relate the occurrence of both pathogens with the population trends of 24 amphibian populations at 15 sites across a national Park in northern Spain over a 14-year period. Just one out 24 populations presents a positive population trend being free of both pathogens, while seven populations exposed to one or two pathogens experienced strong declines during the study period. The rest of the study populations (16) remain stable, and these tend to be of species that are not susceptible to the pathogen present or are free of pathogens. Our study is consistent with infectious diseases playing an important role in dictating amphibian population trends and emphasizes the need to adopt measures to control these pathogens in nature. We highlight that sites housing species carrying Ranavirus seems to have experienced more severe population-level effects compared to those with the amphibian chytrid fungus, and that ranaviruses could be just as, or more important, other more high-profile amphibian emerging pathogens.

DIFFUSION OF POPULATION UNDER THE INFLUENCE INDUSTRIALIZATION IN A TWIN-CITY ENVIRONMENT

2004 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Dhar ◽  
H. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Steady State Distribution ◽  
State Distribution ◽  
Twin City ◽  
City Environment ◽  
Long Term Effect

A mathematical model of a living population in a twin‐city is proposed. Here populations are migrating from one place to another for their resource and settlement under the influence of industrialization. The long term effect of industrialization on the movement of human population is considered in two adjoining cities. It is shown that the steady state distribution of population is positive, continuous, monotonic and the system is stable under certain set of conditions. Further, numerical solution of the steady state distributions of population and industrialization are shown by taking particular values of the parameters.

Application of the method of mathematical modeling for forecasting channel deformations at the underwater crossing of the main pipeline

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 599-609
Author(s):  
Valery А. Gruzdev ◽  
◽  
Georgy V. Mosolov ◽  
Ekaterina A. Sabayda ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Roughness Coefficient ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Channel Deformations ◽  
Geological Surveys ◽  
Kuban River ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Protective Structures

In order to determine the possibility of using the method of mathematical modeling for making long-term forecasts of channel deformations of trunk line underwater crossing (TLUC) through water obstacles, a methodology for performing and analyzing the results of mathematical modeling of channel deformations in the TLUC zone across the Kuban River is considered. Within the framework of the work, the following tasks were solved: 1) the format and composition of the initial data necessary for mathematical modeling were determined; 2) the procedure for assigning the boundaries of the computational domain of the model was considered, the computational domain was broken down into the computational grid, the zoning of the computational domain was performed by the value of the roughness coefficient; 3) the analysis of the results of modeling the water flow was carried out without taking the bottom deformations into account, as well as modeling the bottom deformations, the specifics of the verification and calibration calculations were determined to build a reliable mathematical model; 4) considered the possibility of using the method of mathematical modeling to check the stability of the bottom in the area of TLUC in the presence of man-made dumping or protective structure. It has been established that modeling the flow hydraulics and structure of currents, making short-term forecasts of local high-altitude reshaping of the bottom, determining the tendencies of erosion and accumulation of sediments upstream and downstream of protective structures are applicable for predicting channel deformations in the zone of the TLUC. In all these cases, it is mandatory to have materials from engineering-hydro-meteorological and engineering-geological surveys in an amount sufficient to compile a reliable mathematical model.

Molecular Dynamics Study of Cohesionless Granular Materials: Size Segregation by Shaking

1993 ◽  
Vol 07 (09n10) ◽  
pp. 1865-1872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiya OHTSUKI ◽  
Yoshikazu TAKEMOTO ◽  
Tatsuo HATA ◽  
Shigeki KAWAI ◽  
Akihisa HAYASHI
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Dynamics ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Specific Gravity ◽  
Pressure Gradient ◽  
Granular Materials ◽  
Buoyancy Force ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Particle Radius ◽  
Size Segregation ◽  
Increasing Function

The Molecular Dynamics technique is used to investigate size segregation by shaking in cohesionless granular materials. Temporal evolution of the height h of the tagged particle with different size and mass is measured for various values of the particle radius and specific gravity. It becomes evident that h approaches the steady state value h∞ independent of initial positions. There exists a threshold of the specific gravity of the particle. Below the threshold, h∞ is an increasing function of the particle size, whereas above it, h∞ decreases with increasing the particle radius. The relaxation time τ towards the steady state is calculated and its dependence on the particle radius and specific gravity is clarified. The pressure gradient of pure systems is also measured and turned out to be almost constant. This suggests that the buoyancy force due to the pressure gradient is not responsible to h∞.

scholarly journals Responses of Vertebrate Wildlife to Oil and Natural Gas Development: Patterns and Frontiers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Chalfoun
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Habitat Type ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Natural Gas Development ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas

Abstract Purpose of Review Anthropogenic activities can lead to the loss, fragmentation, and alteration of wildlife habitats. I reviewed the recent literature (2014–2019) focused on the responses of avian, mammalian, and herpetofaunal species to oil and natural gas development, a widespread and still-expanding land use worldwide. My primary goals were to identify any generalities in species’ responses to development and summarize remaining gaps in knowledge. To do so, I evaluated the directionality of a wide variety of responses in relation to taxon, location, development type, development metric, habitat type, and spatiotemporal aspects. Recent Findings Studies (n = 70) were restricted to the USA and Canada, and taxonomically biased towards birds and mammals. Longer studies, but not those incorporating multiple spatial scales, were more likely to detect significant responses. Negative responses of all types were present in relatively low frequencies across all taxa, locations, development types, and development metrics but were context-dependent. The directionality of responses by the same species often varied across studies or development metrics. Summary The state of knowledge about wildlife responses to oil and natural gas development has developed considerably, though many biases and gaps remain. Studies outside of North America and that focus on herpetofauna are lacking. Tests of mechanistic hypotheses for effects, long-term studies, assessment of response thresholds, and experimental designs that isolate the effects of different stimuli associated with development, remain critical. Moreover, tests of the efficacy of habitat mitigation efforts have been rare. Finally, investigations of the demographic effects of development across the full annual cycle were absent for non-game species and are critical for the estimation of population-level effects.

scholarly journals Advancement in long-distance bird migration through individual plasticity in departure

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse R. Conklin ◽  
Simeon Lisovski ◽  
Phil F. Battley
Keyword(s):  
Bird Migration ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Breeding Site ◽  
Environmental Constraints ◽  
Adaptive Responses ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Breeding Resources ◽  
Plastic Responses

AbstractGlobally, bird migration is occurring earlier in the year, consistent with climate-related changes in breeding resources. Although often attributed to phenotypic plasticity, there is no clear demonstration of long-term population advancement in avian migration through individual plasticity. Using direct observations of bar-tailed godwits (Limosa lapponica) departing New Zealand on a 16,000-km journey to Alaska, we show that migration advanced by six days during 2008–2020, and that within-individual advancement was sufficient to explain this population-level change. However, in individuals tracked for the entire migration (50 total tracks of 36 individuals), earlier departure did not lead to earlier arrival or breeding in Alaska, due to prolonged stopovers in Asia. Moreover, changes in breeding-site phenology varied across Alaska, but were not reflected in within-population differences in advancement of migratory departure. We demonstrate that plastic responses can drive population-level changes in timing of long-distance migration, but also that behavioral and environmental constraints en route may yet limit adaptive responses to global change.

scholarly journals On the effect of antiresorptive drugs on the bone remodeling of the mandible after dental implantation: a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehran Ashrafi ◽  
Farzan Ghalichi ◽  
Behnam Mirzakouchaki ◽  
Manuel Doblare
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Bone Density ◽  
Bone Remodeling ◽  
Dental Implants ◽  
Implant Design ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Dental Implantation ◽  
Antiresorptive Agents ◽  
Antiresorptive Drugs

AbstractBone remodeling identifies the process of permanent bone change with new bone formation and old bone resorption. Understanding this process is essential in many applications, such as optimizing the treatment of diseases like osteoporosis, maintaining bone density in long-term periods of disuse, or assessing the long-term evolution of the bone surrounding prostheses after implantation. A particular case of study is the bone remodeling process after dental implantation. Despite the overall success of this type of implants, the increasing life expectancy in developed countries has boosted the demand for dental implants in patients with osteoporosis. Although several studies demonstrate a high success rate of dental implants in osteoporotic patients, it is also known that the healing time and the failure rate increase, necessitating the adoption of pharmacological measures to improve bone quality in those patients. However, the general efficacy of these antiresorptive drugs for osteoporotic patients is still controversial, requiring more experimental and clinical studies. In this work, we investigate the effect of different doses of several drugs, used nowadays in osteoporotic patients, on the evolution of bone density after dental implantation. With this aim, we use a pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) mathematical model that includes the effect of antiresorptive drugs on the RANK/RANK-L/OPG pathway, as well as the mechano-chemical coupling with external mechanical loads. This mechano-PK/PD model is then used to analyze the evolution of bone in normal and osteoporotic mandibles after dental implantation with different drug dosages. We show that using antiresorptive agents such as bisphosphonates or denosumab increases bone density and the associated mechanical properties, but at the same time, it also increases bone brittleness. We conclude that, despite the many limitations of these very complex models, the one presented here is capable of predicting qualitatively the evolution of some of the main biological and chemical variables associated with the process of bone remodeling in patients receiving drugs for osteoporosis, so it could be used to optimize dental implant design and coating for osteoporotic patients, as well as the drug dosage protocol for patient-specific treatments.

scholarly journals Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (103) ◽  
pp. 20141184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstans Wells ◽  
Barry W. Brook ◽  
Robert C. Lacy ◽  
Greg J. Mutze ◽  
David E. Peacock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Maternal Antibodies ◽  
Timing Of Reproduction ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Pathogen Dynamics ◽  
Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease ◽  
Seasonal Epidemics ◽  
Haemorrhagic Disease

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species.

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