scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Early Dynamic Trends in Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: A Modeling Framework

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huazhen Lin ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Hong Gao ◽  
Jinyu Nie ◽  
Qiao Fan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) represents a significant public health threat globally. Here we describe efforts to compare epidemic growth, size and peaking time for countries in Asia, Europe, North America, South America and Australia in the early epidemic phase.MethodsUsing the time series of cases reported from January 20, 2020 to February 13, 2020 and transportation data from December 1, 2019 to January 23, 2020 we have built a novel time-varying growth model to predict the epidemic trend in China. We extended our method, using cases reported from January 26, 2020 - or the date of the earliest case reported, to April 9, 2020 to predict future epidemic trend and size in 41 countries. We estimated the impact of control measures on the epidemic trend.ResultsOur time-varying growth model yielded high concordance in the predicted epidemic size and trend with the observed figures in C hina. Among the other 41 countries, the peak time has been observed in 28 countries before or around April 9, 2020; the peak date and epidemic size were highly consistent with our estimates. We predicted the remaining countries would peak in April or May 2020, except India in July and Pakistan in August. The epidemic trajectory would reach the plateau in May or June for the majority of countries in the current wave. Countries that could emerge to be new epidemic centers are India, Pakistan, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia with a prediction of 105 cases for these countries. The effective reproduction number Rt displayed a downward trend with time across countries, revealing the impact of the intervention remeasures i.e. social distancing. Rt remained the highest in the UK (median 2.62) and the US (median 2.19) in the fourth week after the epidemic onset.ConclusionsNew epidemic centers are expected to continue to emerge across the whole world. Greater challenges such as those in the healthcare system would be faced by developing countries in hotspots. A domestic approach to curb the pandemic must align with joint international efforts to effectively control the spread of COVID-19. Our model promotes a reliable transmissibility characterization and epidemic forecasting using the incidence of cases in the early epidemic phase.

scholarly journals Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
James A. Scott ◽  
Daniel J. Laydon ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
Axel Gandy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Counterfactual Approach

AbstractThe UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic.

scholarly journals Estimating the global reduction in transmission and rise in detection capacity of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in early 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Belloir ◽  
Francois Blanquart
Keyword(s):  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Global Reduction

To better control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, it is essential to quantify the impact of control measures and the fraction of infected individuals that are detected. To this end we developed a deterministic transmission model based on the renewal equation and fitted the model to daily case and death data in the first few months of 2020 in 79 countries and states, representing 4.2 billions individuals. Based on a region-specific infection fatality ratio, we inferred the time-varying probability of case detection and the time-varying decline in transmissiblity. As a validation, the predicted total number of infected was close to that found in serosurveys; more importantly, the inferred probability of detection strongly correlated with the number of daily tests per inhabitant, with 50% detection achieved with 0.003 daily tests per inhabitants. Most of the decline in transmission was explained by the reductions in transmissibility (social distancing), which avoided 10 millions deaths in the regions studied over the first four months of 2020. In contrast, symptom-based testing and isolation of positive cases was not an efficient way to control the spread of the disease, as a large part of transmission happens before symptoms and only a small fraction of infected individuals was typically detected. The latter is explained by the limited number of tests available, and the fact that increasing test capacity increases the probability of detection less than proportionally. Together these results suggest that little control can be achieved by symptom-based testing and isolation alone.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Log Prices in China: An Analysis Based on the TVP-VAR Model

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 449
Author(s):  
Chenlu Tao ◽  
Gang Diao ◽  
Baodong Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Wood Industry ◽  
The Impact

China’s wood industry is vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic since wood raw materials and sales of products are dependent on the international market. This study seeks to explore the speed of log price recovery under different control measures, and to perhaps find a better way to respond to the pandemic. With the daily data, we utilized the time-varying parameter autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which can incorporate structural changes in emergencies into the model through time-varying parameters, to estimate the dynamic impact of the pandemic on log prices at different time points. We found that the impact of the pandemic on oil prices and Renminbi exchange rate is synchronized with the severity of the pandemic, and the ascending in the exchange rate would lead to an increase in log prices, while oil prices would not. Moreover, the impulse response in June converged faster than in February 2020. Thus, partial quarantine is effective. However, the pandemic’s impact on log prices is not consistent with changes of the pandemic. After the pandemic eased in June 2020, the impact of the pandemic on log prices remained increasing. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic has long-term influences on the wood industry, and the work resumption was not smooth, thus the imbalance between supply and demand should be resolved as soon as possible. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of the domestic wood market and realize a “dual circulation” strategy as the pandemic becomes a “new normal”.

scholarly journals Efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
T Deirdre Hollingsworth ◽  
Jonathan M Read
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Central Public Health ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveContact tracing is a central public health response to infectious disease outbreaks, especially in the early stages of an outbreak when specific treatments are limited. Importation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from China and elsewhere into the UK highlights the need to understand the impact of contact tracing as a control measure.DesignDetailed survey information on social encounters from over 5800 respondents is coupled to predictive models of contact tracing and control. This is used to investigate the likely efficacy of contact tracing and the distribution of secondary cases that may go untraced.ResultsTaking recent estimates for COVID-19 transmission we predict that under effective contact tracing less than 1 in 6 cases will generate any subsequent untraced infections, although this comes at a high logistical burden with an average of 36 individuals traced per case. Changes to the definition of a close contact can reduce this burden, but with increased risk of untraced cases; we find that tracing using a contact definition requiring more than 4 hours of contact is unlikely to control spread.ConclusionsThe current contact tracing strategy within the UK is likely to identify a sufficient proportion of infected individuals such that subsequent spread could be prevented, although the ultimate success will depend on the rapid detection of cases and isolation of contacts. Given the burden of tracing a large number of contacts to find new cases, there is the potential the system could be overwhelmed if imports of infection occur at a rapid rate.

The impact of the novel coronavirus on trauma and orthopaedics in the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catrin Morgan ◽  
Aashish K Ahluwalia ◽  
Arash Aframian ◽  
Lily Li ◽  
Stephen Ng Man Sun
Keyword(s):  
Orthopaedic Surgery ◽  
Musculoskeletal Injury ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Orthopaedic Patients ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Injury Burden ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
British Orthopaedic Association

At first glance, the novel coronavirus pandemic and orthopaedic surgery appear separate entities. Orthopaedic surgeons are not generally considered front-line staff in terms of the treatment of the disease that the novel coronavirus causes compared with anaesthetic and medical colleagues. However, the impact that the novel coronavirus is likely to have on the musculoskeletal injury burden and the morbidity associated with chronic musculoskeletal disease is significant. This article summarises the strategies currently being developed for the remodelling of orthopaedic services in the UK and the emergency British Orthopaedic Association Standards for Trauma and Orthopaedic guidelines released on 24 March 2020 in managing urgent orthopaedic patients during the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The impact of time-varying CO 2 injection rate on large scale storage in the UK Bunter Sandstone

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 77-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clea Kolster ◽  
Simeon Agada ◽  
Niall Mac Dowell ◽  
Samuel Krevor
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Injection Rate ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The price of a drink: the potential of alcohol minimum unit pricing as a public health measure in the UK

2012 ◽  
Vol 201 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Rice ◽  
Colin Drummond
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alcohol Control ◽  
Health Measure ◽  
Alcohol Taxation ◽  
Unit Pricing ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Alcohol Related Harm ◽  
Related Harm

SummaryThe UK has seen a dramatic increase in alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm over the past 30 years. Alcohol taxation has long been considered a key method of controlling alcohol-related harm but a combination of factors has recently led to consideration of methods which affect the price of the cheapest alcohol as a means of improved targeting of alcohol control measures to curb the consumption of the heaviest drinkers. Although much of the evidence in favour of setting a minimum price of a unit of alcohol is based on complex econometric models rather than empirical data, all jurisdictions within the UK now intend to make selling alcohol below a set price illegal, which will provide a naturalistic experiment allowing assessment of the impact of minimum pricing.

Revival of an old problem: an increase in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium definitive phage type 8 infections in 2010 in England and Northern Ireland linked to duck eggs

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. NOBLE ◽  
C. LANE ◽  
C. L. LITTLE ◽  
R. DAVIES ◽  
E. De PINNA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Salmonella Enterica ◽  
Salmonella Enterica Serovar Typhimurium ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Phage Type ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Serovar Typhimurium ◽  
Duck Egg ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYSalmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium definitive phage type (DT) 8 is uncommon in humans in the UK. In July 2010, the Health Protection Agency reported an excess isolation rate of pan-susceptible S. Typhimurium DT8 in England and Northern Ireland. By the end of October, this amounted to 81 laboratory-confirmed human cases for all regions of England and Northern Ireland in 2010, an increase of 26% and 41% on 2009 and 2008, respectively. Descriptive epidemiological investigation found a strong association with infection and consumption of duck eggs. Duck eggs contaminated with S. Typhimurium DT8 were collected from a patient's home and also at farms in the duck-egg supply chain. Although duck eggs form a small part of total UK eggs sales, there has been significant growth in sales in recent years. This is the first known outbreak of salmonellosis linked to duck eggs in the UK since 1949 and highlighted the impact of a changing food source and market on the re-emergence of salmonellosis linked to duck eggs. Control measures by the duck-egg industry should be improved along with a continued need to remind the public and commercial caterers of the potential high risks of contracting salmonellosis from duck eggs.

scholarly journals Genomic epidemiology of the first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Palestine

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nouar Qutob ◽  
Zaidoun Salah ◽  
Damien Richard ◽  
Hisham Darwish ◽  
Husam Sallam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
The World ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Epidemic Wave

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, continues to cause a significant public-health burden and disruption globally. Genomic epidemiology approaches point to most countries in the world having experienced many independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 during the early stages of the pandemic. However, this situation may change with local lockdown policies and restrictions on travel, leading to the emergence of more geographically structured viral populations and lineages transmitting locally. Here, we report the first SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Palestine sampled from early March 2020, when the first cases were observed, through to August of 2020. SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Palestine fall across the diversity of the global phylogeny, consistent with at least nine independent introductions into the region. We identify one locally predominant lineage in circulation represented by 50 Palestinian SARS-CoV-2, grouping with genomes generated from Israel and the UK. We estimate the age of introduction of this lineage to 05/02/2020 (16/01/2020–19/02/2020), suggesting SARS-CoV-2 was already in circulation in Palestine predating its first detection in Bethlehem in early March. Our work highlights the value of ongoing genomic surveillance and monitoring to reconstruct the epidemiology of COVID-19 at both local and global scales.

scholarly journals Are we allowed to visit now? Concerns and issues surrounding vaccination and infection risks in UK care homes during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Marie Giebel ◽  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Jacqueline Cannon ◽  
Paul Marlow ◽  
Hilary Tetlow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Care Home ◽  
Home Visitation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Care Homes ◽  
Family Carers ◽  
Care Home Staff ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background: Vaccination uptake in the UK and increased care home testing are likely affecting care home visitation. With scant scientific evidence to date, the aim of this longitudinal qualitative study was to explore the impact of both (vaccination and testing) on the conduct and experiences of care home visits. Methods: Family carers of care home residents with dementia and care home staff from across the UK took part in baseline (October/November 2020) and follow-up interviews (March 2021). Public advisers were involved in all elements of the research. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Across 62 baseline and follow-up interviews with family carers (n=26; 11) and care home staff (n=16; 9), five core themes were developed: Delayed and inconsistent offers of face-to-face visits; Procedures and facilitation of visits; Frustration and anger among family carers; Variable uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine; Misinformation, education, and free choice. The variable uptake in staff, compared to family carers, was a key factor seemingly influencing visitation, with a lack of clear guidance leading care homes to implement infection control measures and visitation rights differently. Conclusions: We make five recommendations in this paper to enable improved care home visitation in the ongoing, and in future, pandemics. Visits need to be enabled and any changes to visiting rights must be used as a last resort, reviewed regularly in consultation with residents and carers and restored as soon as possible as a top priority, whilst more education needs to be provided surrounding vaccination for care home staff.

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