scholarly journals A mathematical model for estimating the age-specific transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

Author(s):  
Ze-Yu Zhao ◽  
Yuan-Zhao Zhu ◽  
Jing-Wen Xu ◽  
Qing-Qing Hu ◽  
Zhao Lei ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundA novel coronavirus named as “SARS-CoV-2” has spread widely in many countries since December 2019, especially in China. This study aimed to quantify the age-specific transmissibility by using a mathematical model.MethodsAn age-specific susceptible – exposed – symptomatic – asymptomatic – recovered – seafood market (SEIARW) model was developed based on two suspected transmission routes (from market to person and person to person). The susceptible people from Wuhan City were divided into different age groups. We used the subscript i and j to represent age group 1 to 4 (i ≠ j; 1: ≤ 14 years; 2: 15-44 years; 3: 45-64 years; 4: ≥ 65 years) and 1 to 5 (i ≠ j; 1: ≤ 5 years; 2: 6-14 years; 3: 15-24 years; 4: 25-59 years; 4: ≥ 60 years), respectively. Data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected from one published literature from 26 November to 22 December, 2019 in Wuhan City, China. The age-specific transmissibility of the virus was estimated accordingly secondary attack rate (SAR).ResultsThe age-specific SEIARW model fitted with the reported data well by dividing the population into four age groups (χ2 = 4.99 × 10−6, P > 0.999), and five age groups (χ2 = 4.85 × 10−6, P > 0.999). Based on the four-age-group SEIARW model, the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 2 to 3 (SAR23 = 17.56 per 10 million persons), followed by from age group 3 to 2 (SAR32 = 10.17 per 10 million persons). The lowest transmissibility occurred from age group 1 to 2 (SAR12 = 0.002 per 10 million persons). Based on the five-age-group SEIARW model, the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 5 (SAR45 = 12.40 per 10 million persons), followed by from age group 5 to 4 (SAR54 = 6.61 per 10 million persons). The lowest transmissibility occurred from age group 3 to 4 (SAR34 = 0.0002 per 10 million persons).ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 has high transmissibility among adults and elder people but low transmissibility among children and young people.

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 232596712092793
Author(s):  
Christopher Antonacci ◽  
Thomas R. Atlee ◽  
Peter N. Chalmers ◽  
Christopher Hadley ◽  
Meghan E. Bishop ◽  
...  

Background: Pitching velocity is one of the most important metrics used to evaluate a baseball pitcher’s effectiveness. The relationship between age and pitching velocity after a lighter ball baseball training program has not been determined. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between age and pitching velocity after a lighter ball baseball training program. We hypothesized that pitching velocity would significantly increase in all adolescent age groups after a lighter baseball training program, without a significant difference in magnitude of increase based on age. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: Baseball pitchers aged 10 to 17 years who completed a 15-week training program focused on pitching mechanics and velocity improvement were included in this study. Pitchers were split into 3 groups based on age (group 1, 10-12 years; group 2, 13-14 years; group 3, 15-17 years), and each group trained independently. Pitch velocity was assessed at 4 time points (sessions 3, 10, 17, and 25). Mean, maximum, and mean change in pitch velocity between sessions were compared by age group. Results: A total of 32 male baseball pitchers were included in the analysis. Mean/maximum velocity increased in all 3 age groups: 3.4/4.8 mph in group 1, 5.3/5.5 mph in group 2, and 5.3/5.2 mph in group 3. While mean percentage change in pitch velocity increased in all 3 age groups (group 1, 6.5%; group 2, 8.3%; group 3, 7.6%), the magnitude of change was not significantly different among age groups. Program session number had a significant effect on mean and maximum velocity, with higher mean and maximum velocity seen at later sessions in the training program ( P = .018). There was no interaction between age and program session within either mean or maximum velocity ( P = .316 and .572, respectively). Conclusion: Age had no significant effect on the magnitude of increase in maximum or mean baseball pitch velocity during a velocity and mechanics training program in adolescent males.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 43-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. V. Khodzhabekyan ◽  
A. T. Khandzhyan ◽  
E. P. Tarutta

Purpose: to evaluate the results of symmetric binocular hypocorrection of myopia with FemtoLasik surgery in patients with presbyopia of various age groups.Material and methods. 33 patients (66 eyes) with myopic refraction, aged 36 to 50, were operated by FemtoLasik. The intended Femto Flap thickness was 100 μm. The patients were divided into three groups depending on age; group 1 included 16 patients (32 eyes) aged 39–44, group 2 had 12 patients (24 eyes) aged 45–50, and group 3 (controls) was composed of 5 patients (10 eyes) of pre-presbyopic age (36–38 years).Results. The symmetric binocular hypocorrection proved efficient in 35 % of cases in the group 1 and 50 % of cases in group 2. In the control group the intended and obtained values coincided in all 100 % of cases.Conclusion. A possible cause of the discrepancy between the intended and the obtained hypocorrection effect may be a reduced corneal hydration of patients older than 39 years.


Author(s):  
Angsuviriya Angsuviriya ◽  
Chanokporn Chanokporn

The objective of this article is to study the attitudes of different age and ethnic groups reflected through the names and the taste of food, that is the southern Thais have a positive attitude towards more tasteful or the taste of hot than the other ethnic groups while the Chinese Thais they have a more positive attitude towards  insipid taste than the other ethnic groups. For the Malaysian Thais they have a more positive attitude towards the taste of sweet than the other two ethnic groups. As for main course dish, the most popular main course dishes in all the 3 groups are “Kangsom” (sour soup made of tamarind paste) and “KangTaipla” or “KangPhungpla”. As for dessert, the most favorite desserts in all the 3 groups are “Klauybuatchee” or Klauybuat (banana in coconut milk) and “Lotchong” or “Singaporean Lotchong”. In addition, it is found that the Chinese Thais and the southern Thais have a negative attitude towards beef, eels, buffalo meat etc, while the Malaysian Thais have a negative attitude towards pork because they are Muslim. When age groups have been taken into account, age group 1 (15-25) does not like spicy foods, compared with the other age group. While age group 2 (35-45) has similarities in the food names of those in age group 1 and age group 3; therefore, there are more food names in age group 2 than those in the other groups. In addition, for age group 3 (55 or more) more local names of foods are found.   Keywords: Attitudes, the names and the tastes of foods, the ethnic


2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 664-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garrett K. Berger ◽  
Peyton L. Nisson ◽  
Whitney S. James ◽  
Kristen N. Kaiser ◽  
R. John Hurlbert

OBJECTIVEEwing sarcoma (ES) is among the most prevalent of bone sarcomas in young people. Less often, it presents as a primary lesion of the spine (5%–15% of patients with ES).METHODSA systematic literature search was performed, querying several scientific databases per PRISMA guidelines. Inclusion criteria specified all studies of patients with surgically treated ES located in the spine. Patient age was categorized into three groups: 0–13 years (age group 1), 14–20 years (age group 2), and > 21 (age group 3).RESULTSEighteen studies were included, yielding 28 patients with ES of the spine. Sixty-seven percent of patients experienced a favorable outcome, with laminectomies representing the most common (46%) of surgical interventions. One-, 2-, and 5-year survival rates were 82% (n = 23), 75% (n = 21), and 57% (n = 16), respectively. Patients in age group 2 experienced the greatest mortality rate (75%) compared to age group 1 (9%) and age group 3 (22%). The calculated relative risk score indicated patients in age group 2 were 7.5 times more likely to die than other age groups combined (p = 0.02).CONCLUSIONSPrimary ES of the spine is a rare, debilitating disease in which the role of surgery and its impact on one’s quality of life and independence status has not been well described. This study found the majority of patients experienced a favorable outcome with respect to independence status following surgery and adjunctive treatment. An increased risk of recurrence and death was also present among the adolescent age group (14–20 years).


2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 324-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy L. Bowes ◽  
Josh King-Robson ◽  
William J. Dawes ◽  
Greg James ◽  
Kristian Aquilina

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to review the safety of pediatric intraventricular endoscopy across separate age groups and to determine whether intraventricular endoscopy is associated with an increased risk of complications or reduced efficacy in infants younger than 1 year.METHODSIn this retrospective cohort study, 286 pediatric patients younger than 17 years underwent intraventricular endoscopy at Great Ormond Street Hospital between December 2005 and December 2014. The primary diagnosis, procedure, and complications were recorded.RESULTSNeuroendoscopic surgery was performed in 286 pediatric patients (51 neonates 0–6 months [Group 1]; 37 infants 6–12 months [Group 2]; 75 patients 1–5 years [Group 3]; 54 patients 5–10 years [Group 4]; and 69 patients ≥ 10 years [Group 5]; male/female ratio 173:113). The most common procedures included endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) in 159 patients and endoscopic fenestration of intracranial cysts in 64 patients. A total of 348 consecutive neuroendoscopic procedures were undertaken. Nine different complications were identified, of which postoperative seizures (1.7%), CSF leak (3.1%), CSF infection (2.4%), and intracranial hemorrhage (1.7%) were the most common. Specifically, no significant difference in complication rate (11.9%) or infection rate (2.4%) was observed among age groups (p = 0.40 and p = 0.91, respectively). In addition, there were no perioperative deaths; 30-day mortality was 1.1%. After neuroendoscopy for CSF diversion (n = 227), a significantly higher rate of shunt insertion was observed in the youngest group (Group 1, 63.0%) when compared with older groups (Group 2, 46.4%; Group 3, 26.3%; Group 4, 38.6%; and Group 5, 30.8%; p = 0.03). Similarly, for patients who underwent ETV as their initial neuroendoscopic procedure or in combination with additional surgical interventions (n = 171), a significantly higher rate of shunt insertion was also observed within young infants (Group 1, 67.9%; Group 2, 47.6%; Group 3, 19.6%; Group 4, 27.3%; and Group 5, 23.3%; p = 0.003).CONCLUSIONSIntraventricular endoscopy is a safe neurosurgical intervention in pediatric patients of all ages, although it might be associated with increased shunt rates after endoscopic surgery, specifically ETV, in younger infants.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ze-yu Zhao ◽  
Yan Niu ◽  
Li Luo ◽  
Qing-qing Hu ◽  
Tian-long Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China. Methods We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups. Results A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45–64 years old. Conclusions Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15–64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China. Graphical Abstract


Medicina ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasa Liutkevičienė ◽  
Džastina Čebatorienė ◽  
Giedrė Liutkevičienė ◽  
Vytautas Jašinskas ◽  
Dalia Žaliūnienė

Objective. The aim of this study was to assess age-related visual functions (visual acuity and contrast sensitivity) and compare the results by different age groups. Material and Methods. A total of 231 patients were examined. The patients were divided into 5 age groups: 10 patients in group 1, 30–39 years; 40 patients in the group 2, 40–49 years; 77 patients in the group 3, 50–59 years; 71 patients in the group 4, 60–70 years; and 33 patients in the group 5, 71–85 years. A typical Snellen’s chart (the direction of the gap in Landolt C) was used for noncorrected and best-corrected visual acuity testing. Contrast sensitivity was evaluated by employing a Ginsburg Box, VSCR-CST-6500. Results. Noncorrected visual acuity was significantly better in the group 2 than the group 3 (0.86 [0.28] vs. 0.69 [0.33], P=0.018). Moreover, noncorrected and best-corrected visual acuity was significantly better in the group 4 than the group 5 (0.52 [0.35] vs. 0.35 [0.28], P<0.001; and 0.9 [0.21] vs. 0.69 [0.27], P<0.005, respectively). Contrast sensitivity at the nighttime without glare was significantly worse in the group 2 than the group 1 at the spatial frequencies of 3, 12, and 18 cycles per degree (P=0.001, P=0.05, and P=0.01, respectively). The patients in the group 2 had significantly worse contrast sensitivity at the nighttime and daytime with glare at the spatial frequencies of 1.5, 12, and 18 cycles per degree (P=0.054, P=0.04, and P=0.01 and P=0.011, P=0.031, and P=0.011, respectively). The greatest differences in contrast sensitivity were observed between the groups 4 and 5, and it was 2 to 4 times better in the group 4. Comparing these groups, all the differences at the nighttime and daytime with and without glare were significant. Conclusions. Contrast sensitivity was worst among the oldest persons (71–85 years), and it began to worsen already in the persons aged 40–49 years. Contrast sensitivity was very similar in the age groups of 40–49 and 50–59 years.


2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 1225-1231
Author(s):  
João B.F. Santos ◽  
Maurício M. Franco ◽  
Robson C. Antunes ◽  
Ednaldo C. Guimarães ◽  
Antonio V. Mundim

ABSTRACT: For the evaluation of serum biochemical parameters of Pêga breed donkeys (Equus asinus), for the different age groups and sex, blood samples of 123 animals were analyzed, of 29 males aged from 8 days to 10 years and of 94 females (15 lactating) aged from 2 days to 12 years, from two farms in the central-southern Minas Gerais, Brazil. The donkeys were divided by age into 5 groups: Group 1 (≤6 months), Group 2 (7-12 months), Group 3 (13-48 months), Group 4 (49-72 months), and Group 5 (≥73 months). According to the sex, they were divided into two groups, males and females. Serum biochemical elements: total protein, albumin, globulin, the A:G ratio, cholesterol, triglycerides, uric acid, creatinine, urea, phosphorus, calcium, Ca:P ratio, magnesium, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT) and creatine kinase (CK), were evaluated in all animals. No significant differences were found for globulins, uric acid, urea and A:G ratio between age groups. Group 4 showed the highest values for total protein when compared with animals in Group 1 and 2. In Goup 2, the donkeys showed albumin levels lower than Group 3 and 4. Group 1 they had cholesterol levels higher than those in Group 2 and 4, and similar of the other groups. Higher phosphorus serum concentration was observed in Group 1. Calcium was significantly lower in Group 2. The Ca:P ratio was higher for Group 5. The magnesium values were significantly higher in donkeys older than 49 months (Group 4 and 5). The value of AST was lower for group 1. The ALP enzyme was significantly higher in younger animals up to 12 months, followed by gradual decrease with advancing age. The values of GGT were higher in donkeys up to 6 months, followed by decreasing values for subsequent groups. No differences were found between genders for albumin, cholesterol, creatinine, urea, uric acid, Ca:P ratio, magnesium, ALT, AST, and alkaline phosphatase. Females had higher values for total protein, globulin and triglycerides. Males showed higher values for A:G ratio, phosphorus, calcium and CK. The results showed that age and sex can influence serum biochemical values of Pêga breed donkeys.


2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Marco Antonio Rocha Martins ◽  
Sammy Vieira Carvalho Júnior

Resumo: Seguindo os pressupostos da Teoria da Variação e Mudança linguística, apresentamos neste artigo uma análise de regra variável da expressão do sujeito pronominal em sentenças matrizes na fala de Natal/Rio Grande do Norte/Brasil, com o objetivo de mapear a evolução do preenchimento do sujeito nessa comunidade. Nossa hipótese é de que a fala de Natal evidencia um quadro de mudança gramatical que pode ser observada sob as lentes da mudança em tempo aparente, conforme postulados de Labov (1994). A amostra analisada compõe-se de oito entrevistas realizadas na década de 2010, extraídas do corpus FALA-Natal, com informantes socialmente estratificados. Considerando quatro faixas etárias diferentes dos informantes (Faixa 1 de 8 a 12 anos; Faixa 2 de 15 a 21 anos; Faixa 3 de 25 a 45 anos; e Faixa 4 mais de 50 anos), os resultados mostram que a representação do sujeito pronominal reflete um caso de mudança em tempo aparente, uma vez que construções com sujeitos preenchidos são condicionadas por informantes mais novos, da faixa etária 1, em oposição aos demais informantes das faixas subsequentes.Palavras-chave: preenchimento do sujeito; mudança em tempo aparente; português brasileiro; FALA-Natal.Abstract: In the Theory of Variation and Linguistic Change, we present an analysis of the variable rule of the expression of the pronominal subject in matrix sentences in the speech of Natal/Rio Grande do Norte/Brazil, with the aim of mapping the evolution of the subject’s filling in this community. Our hypothesis is that the speech of Natal shows a grammatical change, which can be observed in light of change in apparent time, as postulated by Labov (1994). The sample analyzed was taken from eight interviews conducted in the decade of 2010, extracted from the FALA-Natal corpus, with socially stratified informants. Considering four different age groups of informants (Group 1 from 8 to 12 years; Group 2 from 15 to 21 years; Group 3 from 25 to 45 years; and Group 4 over 50 years), the results show that the representation of the pronominal subject reflects a case of change in apparent time, since constructions with filled subjects are conditioned by younger informants, in age group 1, as opposed to the other informants in the subsequent groups.Keywords: subject completion; change in apparent time; Brazilian Portuguese; FALA-Natal.


2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Maria Sitanggang ◽  
Trelia Boel

Background: The mandible constitutes part of the craniofacial bone that plays an important role in determining an individual’s facial profile. The mandible grows and develops throughout life from the prenatal phase up to old age when it becomes and edentulous. Changes in the mandible can be measured using radiographs. These establish several parameters of mandibular morphology, including: ramus height, condylion height, body length, condylion angle, symphysis height, symphysis width and symphysis angle. Purpose: This study aimed to determine differences in the mandibular morphology of members of the mongoloid racial group in Medan according to age as measured by cephalometric radiography. Methods: This investigation constituted analytical research using cross-sectional study with a total sample of 150 individuals divided according to age: group 1 (aged 4-12 years), group 2 (aged 13-24 years, group 3 (aged 25-34 years), group 4 (aged 35-60 years) and group of 5 (aged > 60 years). The parameters were computerized by means of a digital cephalometric radiograph, the resulting data being analized with Oneway ANOVA and LSD. Results: The mean value of the highest to the lowest ramus height, and symphysis height from the five age groups, sequentially, were in group 3, group 4, group 5, group 2, and group 1. The mean value from the highest to the lowest of body length, condylion height, condylion angle, and symphysis width, sequentially, were in group 3, group 4, group 2, group 5, and group 1. The mean value from the highest to the lowest of symphysis angle, sequentially, were in group 1, group 3, group 4, group 2, and  group 5. Conclusion: The mandibular morphology of each age group differs in Mongoloid races in Medan based on lateral cephalometric radiography in which changes are may be affected by the state of teeth and age.


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