scholarly journals Predicting the evolution of SARS-Covid-2 in Portugal using an adapted SIR Model previously used in South Korea for the MERS outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Teles
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
World Health ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractThe covid-19 has spread very quickly worldwide, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a state of pandemic. Moreover, the WHO has announced that the European continent is now the main centre of the pandemic.One of the questions many governments are asking is how the spread is going to evolve in time. In this study, an adapted SIR model previously used in South Korea to model the MERS outbreak was applied to estimate the evolution of the curve of active cases in the case of the Portuguese situation. As some of the parameters were unknown, and the data for Portugal is still scarce, given that the outbreak started later (first case on the 2nd of March) I used Italian data (first reported case in Italy on the 31st of January) to predict them. I then construct five different scenarios for the evolution of covid-19 in Portugal, considering both the effectiveness of the mitigation measurements implemented by the government, and the self-protective measures taken by the population, as explained in the South Korean model.In the out of control scenario, the number of active cases could reach as much as 40,000 people by the beginning of April. In the best-case-scenario considered, the active cases could reach circa 7,000 people. The actual figure probably lies between the interval (7,000-13,000) and the peak will be reached between 9th and the 20th of April 2020.Without control and self-protective measures, this model predicts that the figures of active cases of SARS-covid-2 would reach a staggering 40,000 people It shows the importance of control and self-protecting measure to bring down the number of affected people by following the recommendations of the WHO and health authorities. With the appropriate measures, this number can be brought down to 7,000-13,000 people

scholarly journals Influenza vaccination during pregnancy and influencing factors in Korea: A multicenter questionnaire study of pregnant women and obstetrics and gynecology doctors

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Byung Soo Kang ◽  
San Ha Lee ◽  
Woo Jeng Kim ◽  
Jeong Ha Wie ◽  
In Yang Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
World Health ◽  
Obstetrics And Gynecology ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vaccine Information ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Maternal Influenza

Abstract Background Although the World Health Organization and health authorities in most countries recommend that pregnant women receive inactivated influenza virus vaccines, coverage remains low. This study aimed to investigate (1) the proportion of pregnant women who received an influenza vaccination and influencing factors and (2) the proportion of obstetrics and gynecology (OBGYN) doctors who routinely recommend influenza vaccination to pregnant women and influencing factors. Methods Two separate, anonymized questionnaires were developed for physicians and pregnant and postpartum women and were distributed to multicenters and clinics in South Korea. The proportions of women who received influenza vaccination during pregnancy and OBGYN doctors who routinely recommend the influenza vaccine to pregnant women were analyzed. Independent influencing factors for both maternal influenza vaccination and OBGYN doctors’ routine recommendations to pregnant women were analyzed using log-binomial regression analysis. Results The proportion of self-reported influenza vaccination during pregnancy among 522 women was 63.2%. Pregnancy-related independent factors influencing maternal influenza vaccination were “(ever) received information about influenza vaccination during pregnancy” (OR 8.9, 95% CI 4.17–19.01), “received vaccine information about from OBGYN doctors” (OR 11.44, 95% CI 5.46–24.00), “information obtained from other sources” (OR 4.38, 95% CI 2.01–9.55), and “second/third trimester” (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.21–4.82).. Among 372 OBGYN doctors, 76.9% routinely recommended vaccination for pregnant women. Independent factors effecting routine recommendation were “working at a private clinic or hospital” (OR 5.33, 95% CI 2.44–11.65), “awareness of KCDC guidelines” (OR 3.11, 95% CI 1.11–8.73), and “awareness of the 2019 national free influenza vaccination program for pregnant women” (OR 4.88, 95% CI 2.34–10.17). OBGYN doctors most commonly chose ‘guidelines proposed by the government or public health (108, 46%) and academic committees (59, 25%), as a factor which expect to affect the future recommendation Conclusion This study showed that providing information about maternal influenza vaccination, especially by OBGYN doctors, is crucial for increasing vaccination coverage in pregnant women. Closer cooperation between the government and OBGYN academic societies to educate OBGYN doctors might enhance routine recommendations.

scholarly journals Opinion on the practice of cremation funeral for patients who died of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 243-246
Author(s):  
Yun Jung Heo
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
South Korea ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Loved One ◽  
The World ◽  
Plastic Bag ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization

During the early phase of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, South Korea was among the countries affected by the novel infectious disease soon after China. A year later, South Korea is considered one of the countries to have successfully responded to COVID-19. Even though South Korea has struggled to learn how to live wisely with COVID-19, much less effort has been put into learning how to die gracefully during the COVID-19 pandemic. From the beginning of the pandemic, the Korean government has recommended (or mandated) cremation for those who die from COVID-19 to prevent further spread of the disease. However, the World Health Organization has announced that corpses are generally not contagious and cremation should be a matter of culture choice and available resources. In South Korea, the government pays compensation to the families of the deceased because they follow the national guidelines for the cremation and disinfection of bodies. However, it is now time to discuss how to support the families of the deceased, helping them to safely grieve and honor their loved one in their own ways, rather than forcing them to wrap the deceased with a plastic bag and proceed with a hasty cremation.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-132
Author(s):  
OJ Daniel ◽  
JO Bamidele
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Unknown Aetiology ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

In late December 2019, there was an outbreak of a new Coronavirus infection in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, which caused acute respiratory syndrome of unknown aetiology. The World Health Organization (WHO) named the virus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV2) or COVID-19 and declared the infection a pandemic on the 11th of March 2020. The first case of COVID-19 in Nigeria was reported on the 27th of February 2020 and since then the numbers of confirmed cases has been on the increase, at least in Nigeria. With no vaccine or cure in sight, only public health measures that include personal protective measures, physical distancing, environmental and travel-related measures have been recommended to mitigate and contain the spread of the disease. There is need to make testing for COVID-19 widely available so that the true burden of the infection will be described. This step should assist policy makers in making evidence-based decisions in the prevention and control of the disease.

Novel Coronavirus in India Outbreaks around World: A Statistical Analysis of Odisha, India & World

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debabrata Singh ◽  
Suman Sekhar Sarangi ◽  
Milu Acharya ◽  
Surjeet Sahoo ◽  
Shakti Ketan Prusty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
World Health ◽  
Swine Flu ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Of Recovery ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Background: The Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO) declared novel Coronavirus (nCoV-2019) outbreaks in 2019 and is pandemic. Methods: This research work made an analysis of the nCoV-2019 outbreak in India solely based on a mathematical model. Results: The historical epidemics in the world are plague, AIDS, Swine flu, ebola, zika virus, Black Death and SARS. Considering the model used for SARS 2003, the present research on Covid-2019 estimates characteristics of rate of infectious (I) and rate of recovery(R) which leads to estimation the I and R leads to predict the number of infectious and recovery. Through ruling out the unpredictable, unreasonable data, the model predicts that the number of the cumulative 2019-nCoV cases may reach from 3398458(mid of May) to 15165863, with a peak of the unrecovered infective (2461434-15165863) occurring in late April to late July. In this paper we predicate how the confirmed infected cases would rapidly decrease until late March to July in India. We also focus how the Government of Odisha (a state of India) creates a history in the protective measures of Covid-19. Conclusion: The growing infected cases may get reduced by 70-79% by strong anti-epidemic measures. The enforcement of shutdown, lockdown, awareness, and improvement of medical and health care could also lead to about one-half transmission decrease and constructively abridge the duration of the 2019 n-CoV.

scholarly journals Epidemic Situation and Forecasting if COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia using SIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitham Khoj ◽  
Alaa F Mujallad
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
World Health ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Second Peak

AbstractBackgroundSaudi Arabia is one of the countries affected by COVID-19 pandemic. This will lead to negative impacts in many sectors. Saudi Arabia not only plays an important role on the economical side because it is the leading country in oil production, but also because it is considered the heart of the Islamic countries. Although protective measures have been implemented in Saudi Arabia, the number of COVID-19 cases has increased.Aims of the studyThis study aimed to employ SIR model to forecast the peak of COVID-19 progression and an estimation of it is end in Saudi Arabia.MethodBased on the World Health Organization data on COVID-19 progression in Saudi Arabia from March 3rd to April 29th, 2020, we reliably estimate the constant parameters and make predictions on the inflection point and potential ending time. Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered are the main components of the SIR model that were used to run the analysis.ResultThe data showed an interesting result about the peak of the disease progression. It is projected to occur around the 20th day after running the model. According to the model, the peak time will be around the 20th of May. Then the cases will decrease until the 55th day, which is around June 20th.ConclusionThe result predicts a second peak and an estimation end of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. This data can inform the policy makers, who should try to contain the virus, to be prepared for what is coming next.Key Messages:

Traditional Medicine, Biomedicine and Christianity in Modern Zambia

Africa ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 79 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaori Sugishita
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Traditional Medicine ◽  
National Health ◽  
Traditional Healers ◽  
World Health ◽  
National Health Care ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization has recognized ‘traditional medicine’ as ade factoand economical substitute for biomedicine in the developing world. Accordingly, the Zambian government aims to integrate ‘traditional healers’, locally known asng'anga, with their biomedical counterparts in a national health care system. Hence, on the one hand,ng'angaelaborate their practice into ‘herbalism’, which could meet scientific standards and fit into the scope of biomedicine. On the other hand, they continue to deal with affliction by positing the existence of occult agents, such as witchcraft and spirits, at the risk of being criticized for exploiting indigenous beliefs. As a result, manyng'angaassociate themselves with Christianity, the national religion of Zambia, which serves as an official domain of the occult where they take refuge from biomedical rationalization. However, conventional churches, the government and health authorities do not approve of the link between Christianity and traditional medicine; henceng'angaas traditional healers are marginalized in modern, Christian Zambia. Being thus dissociated from the national religion,ng'angaare officially confined to the periphery of national health care, where they submit to the primacy of biomedicine and the workings of state power.

scholarly journals Containing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Belize

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle A. Habet ◽  
Diomne Habet ◽  
Gliselle Marin
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Female Ratio ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
First Case ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Male To Female

Abstract Objective: To demonstrate how Belize, a small country in Central America with limited resources, contained the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).Methods:Information was gathered from official press releases from the Government of Belize. Statistics were accessed from the Ministry of Health’s website. Additional information was acquired from internet searches on Pubmed and the World Health Organization.Results:Total Cases: 18; Male to female ratio: 1:1; Deaths: 2; Total Tests Done: 1,128; Percentage of positive tests: 1.59%, New cases per day since first case to plateau: 0.812.Conclusion: Early intervention on a national level was key to preventing importation of cases and subsequent community transmission. Limiting the conglomeration of people, curfews, closures of school and universities, government-mandated social distancing, and extensive contact tracing may have mitigated the exponential spread of COVID-19. Mandatory mask-wearing in public may have helped to prevent spread between asymptomatic carriers to susceptible individuals. A low population density may have also contributed to containing the virus.

scholarly journals Attitude, Perception, and Knowledge of COVID-19 Among General Public in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sammina Mahmood ◽  
Tariq Hussain ◽  
Faiq Mahmood ◽  
Mehmood Ahmad ◽  
Arfa Majeed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization has acknowledged coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease as a pandemic. Efforts are being made all over the world to raise awareness to prevent the spread of the disease. The goal of this study was to assess the attitude, perception, and knowledge of Pakistani people toward COVID-19 disease. We conducted a cross-sectional survey in which a questionnaire of 17 questions was transformed online on Google forms and was sent to random individuals online. A total of 1,000 questionnaires from individuals throughout Pakistan were evaluated. The results revealed that 42.9% of the participants knew about COVID-19 through social media, the largest source of information. Most of the participants (48.3%) started working from home amid the lockdown; 39.9% of the participants reported that they wash their hands every hour, and 56.9% participants are using a surgical mask. About thermal scanners, 30.5% of the people answered they may be effective, and 46.0% of the people think COVID-19 is a bioweapon; 59% of the participants think everyone is susceptible, whereas 83.9% of the people recognize fever as a primary symptom; 65.2% of the people are practicing social distancing, whereas 85.1% of the people think social gatherings causes spread of the disease. In general, participants had a good knowledge about the disease and a positive attitude toward protective measures. The effective measures are being taken by the government and the public; still, there remains a need for further awareness campaigns and knowledge of safe interventions to combat the spread of disease.

Harmonização orofacial após Covid-19: biossegurança e benefcios

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Ana Karina Fonseca de Carvalho Calderan Correa ◽  
Gabriela Araújo Barros Lima e Silva ◽  
Leonardo Nogueira Tavares ◽  
Ricardo Correa de Araújo Júnior ◽  
Antonio Aparecido Celoria
Keyword(s):  
Health Promotion ◽  
Well Being ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Concept Of Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Promoting ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Individual

Orofacial Harmonization (HOF) that has already been recognized as a dental specialty by the Brazilian Federal Council of Dentistry (CFO) through the resolution CFO-198/2019, has been showing considerable advances in health promotion and reestablishment of a complete physical, mental and social well-being of the individual. Also, it makes efforts in an attempt to strengthen and improve the biosafety protocols presented by the World Health Organization (WHO). The undertakings carried out by the government and health authorities are notorious in an attempt to adapt to the new reality presented by this pandemic caused by COVID-19. However, we cannot deny the negligence of these same authorities of not inserting this specialty as part of the essential care for the population, as the HOF is able of providing numerous benefits, as well as the dentist who was left in the gloom in its origin as a health promoting agent. In the present study, updated biosafety protocols will be shown, and also the importance of adding the inherent technologies of HOF and all the knowledge and proficiency of dentistry professionals in an attempt to concretize the real concept of health, benefiting the population that is desolated and terrified in this new post-COVID world.

Novel Coronavirus 2019 Outbreak: A Global Epidemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 1458-1464
Author(s):  
Sweta Kamboj ◽  
Rohit Kamboj ◽  
Shikha Kamboj ◽  
Kumar Guarve ◽  
Rohit Dutt
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tract Disease ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Background: In the 1960s, the human coronavirus was designated, which is responsible for the upper respiratory tract disease in children. Back in 2003, mainly 5 new coronaviruses were recognized. This study directly pursues to govern knowledge, attitude and practice of viral and droplet infection isolation safeguard among the researchers during the outbreak of the COVID-19. Introduction: Coronavirus is a proteinaceous and infectious pathogen. It is an etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronavirus, appeared in China from the seafood and poultry market last year, which has spread in various countries, and has caused several deaths. Methods: The literature data has been taken from different search platforms like PubMed, Science Direct, Embase, Web of Science, who.int portal and complied. Results: Corona virology study will be more advanced and outstanding in recent years. COVID-19 epidemic is a threatening reminder not solely for one country but all over the universe. Conclusion: In this review article, we encapsulated the pathogenesis, geographical spread of coronavirus worldwide, also discussed the perspective of diagnosis, effective treatment, and primary recommendations by the World Health Organization, and guidelines of the government to slow down the impact of the virus are also optimistic, efficacious and obliging for the public health. However, it will take a prolonged time in the future to overcome this epidemic.

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