scholarly journals Epidemic Situation and Forecasting if COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia using SIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitham Khoj ◽  
Alaa F Mujallad
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
World Health ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Second Peak

AbstractBackgroundSaudi Arabia is one of the countries affected by COVID-19 pandemic. This will lead to negative impacts in many sectors. Saudi Arabia not only plays an important role on the economical side because it is the leading country in oil production, but also because it is considered the heart of the Islamic countries. Although protective measures have been implemented in Saudi Arabia, the number of COVID-19 cases has increased.Aims of the studyThis study aimed to employ SIR model to forecast the peak of COVID-19 progression and an estimation of it is end in Saudi Arabia.MethodBased on the World Health Organization data on COVID-19 progression in Saudi Arabia from March 3rd to April 29th, 2020, we reliably estimate the constant parameters and make predictions on the inflection point and potential ending time. Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered are the main components of the SIR model that were used to run the analysis.ResultThe data showed an interesting result about the peak of the disease progression. It is projected to occur around the 20th day after running the model. According to the model, the peak time will be around the 20th of May. Then the cases will decrease until the 55th day, which is around June 20th.ConclusionThe result predicts a second peak and an estimation end of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. This data can inform the policy makers, who should try to contain the virus, to be prepared for what is coming next.Key Messages:

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-132
Author(s):  
OJ Daniel ◽  
JO Bamidele
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Unknown Aetiology ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

In late December 2019, there was an outbreak of a new Coronavirus infection in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, which caused acute respiratory syndrome of unknown aetiology. The World Health Organization (WHO) named the virus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV2) or COVID-19 and declared the infection a pandemic on the 11th of March 2020. The first case of COVID-19 in Nigeria was reported on the 27th of February 2020 and since then the numbers of confirmed cases has been on the increase, at least in Nigeria. With no vaccine or cure in sight, only public health measures that include personal protective measures, physical distancing, environmental and travel-related measures have been recommended to mitigate and contain the spread of the disease. There is need to make testing for COVID-19 widely available so that the true burden of the infection will be described. This step should assist policy makers in making evidence-based decisions in the prevention and control of the disease.

scholarly journals Predicting the evolution of SARS-Covid-2 in Portugal using an adapted SIR Model previously used in South Korea for the MERS outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Teles
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
World Health ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractThe covid-19 has spread very quickly worldwide, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a state of pandemic. Moreover, the WHO has announced that the European continent is now the main centre of the pandemic.One of the questions many governments are asking is how the spread is going to evolve in time. In this study, an adapted SIR model previously used in South Korea to model the MERS outbreak was applied to estimate the evolution of the curve of active cases in the case of the Portuguese situation. As some of the parameters were unknown, and the data for Portugal is still scarce, given that the outbreak started later (first case on the 2nd of March) I used Italian data (first reported case in Italy on the 31st of January) to predict them. I then construct five different scenarios for the evolution of covid-19 in Portugal, considering both the effectiveness of the mitigation measurements implemented by the government, and the self-protective measures taken by the population, as explained in the South Korean model.In the out of control scenario, the number of active cases could reach as much as 40,000 people by the beginning of April. In the best-case-scenario considered, the active cases could reach circa 7,000 people. The actual figure probably lies between the interval (7,000-13,000) and the peak will be reached between 9th and the 20th of April 2020.Without control and self-protective measures, this model predicts that the figures of active cases of SARS-covid-2 would reach a staggering 40,000 people It shows the importance of control and self-protecting measure to bring down the number of affected people by following the recommendations of the WHO and health authorities. With the appropriate measures, this number can be brought down to 7,000-13,000 people

scholarly journals The Utilization of Protective Face Masks among Polish Healthcare Workers during COVID-19 Pandemic: Do We Pass the Exam?

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 841
Author(s):  
Radomir Reszke ◽  
Łukasz Matusiak ◽  
Piotr K. Krajewski ◽  
Marta Szepietowska ◽  
Rafał Białynicki-Birula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Medical Profession ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Internet Survey ◽  
World Health ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Who Criteria ◽  
The Face ◽  
Health Organization

Relevant personal protective measures during the COVID-19 pandemic include face masks, possibly decreasing the risk of infection among the general population and healthcare workers (HCW) if utilized properly. The aim of the study was to assess whether different Polish HCW utilize face masks according to the 2020 World Health Organization guidance (WHO) criteria. This cross-sectional study included 1156 respondents who participated in an internet survey evaluating mask-related behaviors. All the WHO criteria were complied with by 1.4% of participants, regardless of medical profession, specialty or place of employment. HCW mostly adhered to criterion 1 (C1; strict covering of the face and mouth with the mask; 90.8%), C4 (washing/disinfecting the hands after touching/taking off the mask; 49%) and C3 (taking off the mask properly without touching the anterior surface; 43.4%), whereas C2 (avoidance of touching the mask with hands) was complied with least commonly (6.8%). HCW with mask-induced itch (31.6%) complied to C2 less often (odds ratio 0.53; p = 0.01). The study reveals that Polish HCW rarely adhere to all the 2020 WHO guidance criteria on the use of masks, whereas the adherence to particular criteria is variable and may be associated with the presence of skin-related conditions and other factors. Better compliance with the recommendations in the future is necessary to increase personal safety of HCW and prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Nurses’ Knowledge and Anxiety Levels toward COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-363
Author(s):  
Fatmah Alsharif
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Psychological Health ◽  
Care Staff ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
As Stress ◽  
Health Organization

Background: In the battle against the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, medical care staff, especially nurses, are at a higher risk of encountering psychological health issues and distress, such as stress, tension, burdensome indications, and, most importantly, fear. They are also at higher risk of becoming infected and transmitting this virus. In Saudi Arabia, it was noticed that the healthcare workforce suffered from anxiety, and that this more evident in women than men. Objective: This study aimed to assess the knowledge of nurses regarding COVID-19 and the level of anxiety toward the COVID-19 outbreak in the current pandemic situation. Design: A cross-sectional design was used and a validated self-administered online questionnaire with a set of questions related to COVID-19 was distributed to 87 participating nurses. Results: The results showed that more than half of the nurses (71.90%) had an adequate and good knowledge about the causes, transmission, symptoms, treatment, and death rate of COVID-19. The main sources of information for the nurses were social media (51.7%) and the World Health Organization and the Ministry of Health (36.8%). Conclusions: The results allowed the conclusion that, though the nurses had satisfactory knowledge about COVID-19, more than 50% of them experienced mental health issues such as anxiety. To address this, along with providing more knowledge about COVID-19, nurses should be supported in managing their anxiety.

scholarly journals Mental health law in Saudi Arabia

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-19
Author(s):  
Jessica Carlisle
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Psychiatric Patients ◽  
International Standards ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Law ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Mental Health Law ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health Organization

During the past 30 years the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has developed an extensive hospital-based mental health system culminating in the passing of a mental health law in 2014. This legislation embodies many of the international standards promoted by the World Health Organization. However, the mechanisms for protecting the human rights of psychiatric patients are neither sufficiently independent nor adequately robust.

scholarly journals Clinical signs of trachoma are prevalent among Solomon Islanders who have no persistent markers of prior infection with Chlamydia trachomatis

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Robert Butcher ◽  
Oliver Sokana ◽  
Kelvin Jack ◽  
Leslie Sui ◽  
Charles Russell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chlamydia Trachomatis ◽  
Sexual Debut ◽  
Solomon Islands ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Health Organization

Background: The low population-prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis and high prevalence of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) provide contradictory estimates of the magnitude of the public health threat from trachoma in the Solomon Islands. Improved characterisation of the biology of trachoma in the region may support policy makers as they decide what interventions are required. Here, age-specific profiles of anti-Pgp3 antibodies and conjunctival scarring were examined to determine whether there is evidence of ongoing transmission and pathology from ocular Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection. Methods: A total of 1511 individuals aged ≥1 year were enrolled from randomly selected households in 13 villages in which >10% of children aged 1–9 years had TF prior to a single round of azithromycin mass drug administration undertaken six months previously. Blood was collected to be screened for antibodies to the Ct antigen Pgp3. Tarsal conjunctival photographs were collected for analysis of scarring severity. Results: Anti-Pgp3 seropositivity was 18% in 1–9 year olds, sharply increasing around the age of sexual debut to reach 69% in those over 25 years. Anti-Pgp3 seropositivity did not increase significantly between the ages of 1–9 years and was not associated with TF (p=0.581) or scarring in children (p=0.472). Conjunctival scars were visible in 13.1% of photographs. Mild (p<0.0001) but not severe (p=0.149) scars increased in prevalence with age. Conclusions: Neither conjunctival scars nor lymphoid follicles were associated with antibodies to Ct, suggesting that they are unlikely to be a direct result of ocular Ct infection. Clinical signs of trachoma were prevalent in this population but were not indicative of the underlying rates of Ct infection. The current World Health Organization guidelines for trachoma elimination indicated that this population should receive intervention with mass distribution of antibiotics, but the data presented here suggest that this may not have been appropriate.

scholarly journals A Bibliometric Analysis of Coronavirus Research in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 99-119
Author(s):  
Ali Mustafa Qamar ◽  
Rehan Ullah Khan ◽  
Suliman Alsuhibany
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
New England ◽  
Bibliometric Analysis ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
World Health ◽  
King Saud University ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by World Health Organization in March 2020. Since then, it has attracted the enormous attention of researchers from around the world. The world has gone through previous instances of corona-viruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome. Nevertheless, none was of these were of this serious nature as COVID-19. In this research, we carry out a bibliometric analysis of coronavirus research using the Scopus database. However, we restricted ourselves to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The analysis was performed using Biblioshiny software. We analyzed 4288 articles written by 24226 researchers from 1994 till 2021, published in 1429 sources. The number of authors per publication is 5.65. A bulk of the research (more than 68%) appeared in the form of articles. More than 43% of the publications appeared in 2020 and more than 44% in 2021. Saudi Arabia appears the most-cited country, followed by Qatar. Journal of Infection and Public Health published the most number of papers, whereas New England Journal of Medicine is the most-cited one. Memish, Z.A. wrote the maximum number of papers. The top source, according to the H-index, is the Journal of Virology. Furthermore, the two most prolific universities are King Saud University and King Abdulaziz University, both from Saudi Arabia. The research uncovered deep learning as a niche theme used in recent publications. The research landscape continues to alter as the pandemic keeps on evolving.

scholarly journals Use of mask in COVID-19 era: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-90
Author(s):  
Rano Mal Piryani ◽  
Suneel Piryani ◽  
Jay Narayan Shah
Keyword(s):  
United States Of America ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Healthy Person ◽  
World Health ◽  
Source Control ◽  
Community Settings ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Risk Of Exposure ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Healthy Persons

World Health Organization (WHO) in its interim guidance of 6 April 2020 advises policy makers on the use of masks for healthy people in community settings. The rationale for mask use by healthy person is prevention from COVID-19, when there is risk of exposure, like working in close contact with public, people with comorbidities, where physical distancing cannot be maintained such as travelling in buses, staying in slum areas. Furthermore, WHO says the purpose and reason for mask use should be clear– whether it is to be used for source control (used by infected persons) or prevention of COVID-19 (used by healthy persons).1 Centers for Disease Control (CDC) United States of America (USA) updated its advisory on 4 Apr 2020, and recommended everyone (except some) should wear at least a cloth face covering when they have to go out in public. It will protect other people in case you are infected.2,3 This advisory of no strict demand on use of face masks could be possibly due to unavailability of disposable masks.

scholarly journals Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 4568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dabiah Alboaneen ◽  
Bernardi Pranggono ◽  
Dhahi Alshammari ◽  
Nourah Alqahtani ◽  
Raja Alyaffer
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Real Time ◽  
World Health ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Final Phase ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Local Prediction ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Time Data ◽  
Health Organization

The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak continues to spread rapidly across the world and has been declared as pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). Saudi Arabia was among the countries that was affected by the deadly and contagious virus. Using a real-time data from 2 March 2020 to 15 May 2020 collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, we aimed to give a local prediction of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. We used two models: the Logistic Growth and the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered for real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Saudi Arabia. Our models predicted that the epidemics of COVID-19 will have total cases of 69,000 to 79,000 cases. The simulations also predicted that the outbreak will entering the final-phase by end of June 2020.

scholarly journals Presence of mismatches between diagnostic PCR assays and coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 genome

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 200636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Aziz Khan ◽  
Peter Cheung
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Current Standard ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Diagnostic Pcr ◽  
Diagnostic Assays ◽  
The World ◽  
Polymerase Chain ◽  
Pcr Assays ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Viral Sequences

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; initially named as 2019-nCoV) is responsible for the recent COVID-19 pandemic and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is the current standard method for its diagnosis from patient samples. This study conducted a reassessment of published diagnostic PCR assays, including those recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), through the evaluation of mismatches with publicly available viral sequences. An exhaustive evaluation of the sequence variability within the primer/probe target regions of the viral genome was performed using more than 17 000 viral sequences from around the world. The analysis showed the presence of mutations/mismatches in primer/probe binding regions of 7 assays out of 27 assays studied. A comprehensive bioinformatics approach for in silico inclusivity evaluation of PCR diagnostic assays of SARS-CoV-2 was validated using freely available software programs that can be applied to any diagnostic assay of choice. These findings provide potentially important information for clinicians, laboratory professionals and policy-makers.

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