scholarly journals Widespread use of face masks in public may slow the spread of SARS CoV-2: an ecological study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Kenyon
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Study ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Binary Variable ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Residual Confounding

AbstractBackgroundThe reasons for the large differences between countries in the sizes of their SARS CoV-2 epidemics is unknown. Individual level studies have found that the use of face masks was protective for the acquisition and transmission of a range of respiratory viruses including SARS CoV-1. We hypothesized that population level usage of face masks may be negatively associated SARS CoV-2 spread.MethodsAt a country level, linear regression was used to assess the association between COVID-19 diagnoses per inhabitant and the national promotion of face masks in public (coded as a binary variable), controlling for the age of the COVID-19 epidemic and testing intensity.ResultsEight of the 49 countries with available data advocated wearing face masks in public – China, Czechia, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia. In multivariate analysis face mask use was negatively associated with number of COVID-19 cases/inhabitant (coef. −326, 95% CI −601- −51, P=0.021). Testing intensity was positively associated with COVID-19 cases (coef. 0.07, 95% CI 0.05-0.08, P<0.001).ConclusionWhilst these results are susceptible to residual confounding, they do provide ecological level support to the individual level studies that found face mask usage to reduce the transmission and acquisition of respiratory viral infections.

Ecological studies

2020 ◽  
pp. 113-126
Author(s):  
Jayati Das-Munshi
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Study ◽  
Multilevel Modelling ◽  
Ecological Studies ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Information ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Study Designs ◽  
Over Time

Ecological studies use aggregated data to infer correlation of exposures with outcomes over time, or by place. One of the first examples of an ecological study was Emile Durkheim’s exploration of country-level factors underlying suicide, first published in 1897. Ecological studies have continued to hold an important place in psychiatry, particularly for developing hypotheses. They can also be used to assess the impact of policies on health outcomes over time. There are important limitations associated with ecological study designs, in particular the ability to make causal inferences at the individual level. Multilevel modelling approaches are an important analytic development in the field, which allow the possibility of using group-level information alongside individual-level attributes in analyses. In the first part of this chapter, some examples of ecological studies and their advantages and disadvantages will be introduced. In the second part of this chapter, multilevel modelling techniques will be briefly introduced and discussed with respect to their use in overcoming some of the limitations of geographical ecological studies.

scholarly journals Anopheles salivary antigens as serological biomarkers of vector exposure and malaria transmission: A systematic review with multilevel modelling

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen A Kearney ◽  
Paul A Agius ◽  
Victor Chaumeau ◽  
Julia C Cutts ◽  
Julie A Simpson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Multilevel Modelling ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
Entomological Surveillance ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Individual

<b>Background:</b> Entomological surveillance for malaria is inherently resource-intensive and produces crude population-level measures of vector exposure which are insensitive in low-transmission settings. Antibodies against Anopheles salivary proteins measured at the individual-level may serve as proxy biomarkers for vector exposure and malaria transmission, but their relationship is yet to be quantified. <b>Methods:</b> A systematic review of studies measuring antibodies against Anopheles salivary antigens (PROSPERO: CRD42020185449). Multilevel modelling (to account for multiple study-specific observations (level-one), nested within study (level-two), and study nested within country (level-three)) estimated associations between seroprevalence with Anopheles human biting rate (HBR) and malaria transmission measures. <b>Results:</b> From 3981 studies identified in literature searches, 42 studies across 16 countries were included contributing 393 study-specific observations of anti-Anopheles salivary antibodies determined in 42,764 samples. A positive association between HBR (log transformed) and seroprevalence was found; overall a 2-fold (100% relative) increase in HBR was associated with a 23% increase in odds of seropositivity (OR: 1.23, 95%CI: 1.10-1.37, p<0.001). The association between HBR and Anopheles salivary antibodies was strongest with concordant, rather than discordant Anopheles species. Seroprevalence was also significantly positively associated with established epidemiological measures of malaria transmission: entomological inoculation rate, Plasmodium spp. prevalence, and malarial endemicity class. <b>Conclusions:</b> Anopheles salivary antibody biomarkers can serve as a proxy measure for HBR and malaria transmission, and could monitor malaria receptivity of a population to sustain malaria transmission. Validation of Anopheles species-specific biomarkers are important given the global heterogeneity in the distribution of Anopheles species. Salivary biomarkers have the potential to transform surveillance by replacing impractical, inaccurate entomological investigations, especially in areas progressing towards malaria elimination. <b>Funding:</b> Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust.

Inequality in active ageing: evidence from a new individual-level index for European countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 541-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
MIKKEL BARSLUND ◽  
MARTEN VON WERDER ◽  
ASGHAR ZAIDI
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Active Ageing ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Share Data ◽  
The Individual

ABSTRACTIn the context of emerging challenges and opportunities associated with population ageing, the study of inequality in active-ageing outcomes is critical to the design of appropriate and effective social policies. While there is much discussion about active ageing at the aggregate country level, little is known about inequality in active-ageing experiences within countries. Based on the existing literature on active ageing, this paper proposes an individual-level composite active ageing index based on Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data. The individual-level nature of the index allows us to analyse inequality in experiences of active ageing within selected European countries. One important motivation behind measuring active ageing at the individual level is that it allows for a better understanding of unequal experiences of ageing, which may otherwise be masked in aggregate-level measures of active ageing. Results show large differences in the distribution of individual-level active ageing across the 13 European countries covered and across age groups. Furthermore, there is a positive association between the country-level active ageing index and the equality of its distribution within a country. Hence, countries with the lowest average active ageing index tend to have the most unequal distribution in active-ageing experiences. For nine European countries, where temporal data are also available, we find that inequality in active-ageing outcomes decreased in the period 2004 to 2013.

scholarly journals Migration, acculturation, and the maintenance of between-group cultural variation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Mesoudi
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Cultural Evolution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Cultural Variation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Social Learning Processes

AbstractHow do migration and acculturation (i.e. psychological or behavioral change resulting from migration) affect within- and between-group cultural variation? Here I answer this question by drawing analogies between genetic and cultural evolution. Population genetic models show that migration rapidly breaks down between-group genetic structure. In cultural evolution, however, migrants or their descendants can acculturate to local behaviors via social learning processes such as conformity, potentially preventing migration from eliminating between-group cultural variation. An analysis of the empirical literature on migration suggests that acculturation is common, with second and subsequent migrant generations shifting, sometimes substantially, towards the cultural values of the adopted society. Yet there is little understanding of the individual-level dynamics that underlie these population-level shifts. To explore this formally, I present models quantifying the effect of migration and acculturation on between-group cultural variation, for both neutral and costly cooperative traits. In the models, between-group cultural variation, measured using F statistics, is eliminated by migration and maintained by conformist acculturation. The extent of acculturation is determined by the strength of conformist bias and the number of demonstrators from whom individuals learn. Acculturation is countered by assortation, the tendency for individuals to preferentially interact with culturally-similar others. Unlike neutral traits, cooperative traits can additionally be maintained by payoff-biased social learning, but only in the presence of strong sanctioning institutions. Overall, the models show that surprisingly little conformist acculturation is required to maintain realistic amounts of between-group cultural diversity. While these models provide insight into the potential dynamics of acculturation and migration in cultural evolution, they also highlight the need for more empirical research into the individual-level learning biases that underlie migrant acculturation.

scholarly journals The closer to the Europe Union headquarters, the higher risk of COVID-19? Cautions regarding ecological studies of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuai Li ◽  
Xinyang Hua
Keyword(s):  
European Country ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Ecological Fallacy ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Ecological Studies ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data

AbstractSeveral ecological studies of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have reported correlations between group-level aggregated exposures and COVID-19 outcomes. While some studies might be helpful in generating new hypotheses related to COVID-19, results of such type of studies should be interpreted with cautions. To illustrate how ecological studies and results could be biased, we conducted an ecological study of COVID-19 outcomes and the distance to Brussels using European country-level data. We found that, the distance was negatively correlated with COVID-19 outcomes; every 100 km away from Brussels was associated with approximately 6% to 17% reductions (all P<0.01) in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Europe. Without cautions, such results could be interpreted as the closer to the Europe Union headquarters, the higher risk of COVID-19 in Europe. However, these results are more likely to reflect the differences in the timing of and the responding to the outbreak, etc. between European countries, rather than the ‘effect’ of the distance to Brussels itself. Associations observed at the group level have limitations to reflect individual-level associations – the so-called ecological fallacy. Given the public concern over COVID-19, ecological studies should be conducted and interpreted with great cautions, in case the results would be mistakenly understood.

scholarly journals General intelligence disentangled via a generality metric for natural and artificial intelligence

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
José Hernández-Orallo ◽  
Bao Sheng Loe ◽  
Lucy Cheke ◽  
Fernando Martínez-Plumed ◽  
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
Keyword(s):  
Task Difficulty ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
General Intelligence ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Cognitive Efficiency ◽  
Comprehensive Performance ◽  
Individual Measure ◽  
Level Of Difficulty ◽  
The Individual

AbstractSuccess in all sorts of situations is the most classical interpretation of general intelligence. Under limited resources, however, the capability of an agent must necessarily be limited too, and generality needs to be understood as comprehensive performance up to a level of difficulty. The degree of generality then refers to the way an agent’s capability is distributed as a function of task difficulty. This dissects the notion of general intelligence into two non-populational measures, generality and capability, which we apply to individuals and groups of humans, other animals and AI systems, on several cognitive and perceptual tests. Our results indicate that generality and capability can decouple at the individual level: very specialised agents can show high capability and vice versa. The metrics also decouple at the population level, and we rarely see diminishing returns in generality for those groups of high capability. We relate the individual measure of generality to traditional notions of general intelligence and cognitive efficiency in humans, collectives, non-human animals and machines. The choice of the difficulty function now plays a prominent role in this new conception of generality, which brings a quantitative tool for shedding light on long-standing questions about the evolution of general intelligence and the evaluation of progress in Artificial General Intelligence.

scholarly journals Ecology and Prediction of Compensatory Growth: From Theory to Application in Forestry

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Li ◽  
Hugh Barclay ◽  
Bernard Roitberg ◽  
Robert Lalonde
Keyword(s):  
Compensatory Growth ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Common Phenomenon ◽  
Partial Mortality ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Dependent Model ◽  
Accelerated Growth ◽  
The Individual

Compensatory growth has been observed in forests, and it also appears as a common phenomenon in biology. Though it sometimes takes different names, the essential meanings are the same, describing the accelerated growth of organisms when recovering from a period of unfavorable conditions such as tissue damage at the individual level and partial mortality at the population level. Diverse patterns of compensatory growth have been reported in the literature, ranging from under-, to compensation-induced-equality, and to over-compensation. In this review and synthesis, we provide examples of analogous compensatory growth from different fields, clarify different meanings of it, summarize its current understanding and modeling efforts, and argue that it is possible to develop a state-dependent model under the conceptual framework of compensatory growth, aimed at explaining and predicting diverse observations according to different disturbances and environmental conditions. When properly applied, compensatory growth can benefit different industries and human society in various forms.

scholarly journals Who is afraid of more women in politics, and why? An analysis of public opinion in 28 European countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimiter Toshkov ◽  
Giulia Cretti
Keyword(s):  
Gender Attitudes ◽  
Women In Politics ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Gender Parity ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Proper Role ◽  
Female Politicians ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
Masculine Culture

We study how individual and country-level variables interact in affecting political gender attitudes in Europe. Based on data from the 2017 Eurobarometer survey, we show that there are high levels of support for more women in politics and legal measures to achieve gender parity across the EU. In fact, more people, and women in particular, put higher trust in female compared to male political representatives than the other way round. We find that – at the individual level – gender, age and education have significant effects on political gender attitudes. Contrary to theory, however, the effect of gender is not mediated by beliefs about the proper role of women in politics and society. We also do not find support for the contextual effects of masculine culture and the religiosity of society, but we do uncover significant gaps in political gender attitudes between post-communist and other countries, especially for men. This gap is very significant in size and declines only marginally with the age of the respondent. Our study identifies men in post-communist countries as the group least likely to trust female politicians and support gender parity in politics in Europe. These attitudes are at least partly independent from stereotypes about gender roles.

scholarly journals Opposite outcomes of coinfection at individual and population scales

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (29) ◽  
pp. 7545-7550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin E. Gorsich ◽  
Rampal S. Etienne ◽  
Jan Medlock ◽  
Brianna R. Beechler ◽  
Johannie M. Spaan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
African Buffalo ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Secondary Infections ◽  
The Individual

Coinfecting parasites and pathogens remain a leading challenge for global public health due to their consequences for individual-level infection risk and disease progression. However, a clear understanding of the population-level consequences of coinfection is lacking. Here, we constructed a model that includes three individual-level effects of coinfection: mortality, fecundity, and transmission. We used the model to investigate how these individual-level consequences of coinfection scale up to produce population-level infection patterns. To parameterize this model, we conducted a 4-y cohort study in African buffalo to estimate the individual-level effects of coinfection with two bacterial pathogens, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and brucellosis, across a range of demographic and environmental contexts. At the individual level, our empirical results identified bTB as a risk factor for acquiring brucellosis, but we found no association between brucellosis and the risk of acquiring bTB. Both infections were associated with reductions in survival and neither infection was associated with reductions in fecundity. The model reproduced coinfection patterns in the data and predicted opposite impacts of coinfection at individual and population scales: Whereas bTB facilitated brucellosis infection at the individual level, our model predicted the presence of brucellosis to have a strong negative impact on bTB at the population level. In modeled populations where brucellosis was present, the endemic prevalence and basic reproduction number (R0) of bTB were lower than in populations without brucellosis. Therefore, these results provide a data-driven example of competition between coinfecting pathogens that occurs when one pathogen facilitates secondary infections at the individual level.

scholarly journals The Role of Individual- and Contextual-Level Social Capital in Product Boycotting: A Multilevel Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Zasuwa
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Sustainable Consumption ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Consumer Participation ◽  
Social Rules ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Consumer Activism ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Individual

Product boycotts represent an important form of sustainable consumption, as withholding purchasing can restrain firms from damaging the natural environment or breaking social rules. However, our understanding of consumer participation in these protests is limited. Most previous studies have focused on the psychological and economic determinants of product boycotting. Drawing on social capital literature, this study builds a framework that explains how individual- and contextual-level social capital affects consumer participation in boycotts of products. A multilevel logistic regression analysis of 29 country representative samples derived from the European Social Survey (N = 54221) shows that at the individual level product boycotting is associated with a person’s social ties, whereas at the country level, generalized trust and social networks positively affect consumer decisions to take part in these protests. These results suggest that to better understand differences among countries in consumer activism, it is necessary to consider the role of social capital as an important predictor of product boycotting.

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