scholarly journals Coronavirus in African: Social, Economic and Political Consequences

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 38-56
Author(s):  
I. O. Abramova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Real Chance

The article offers an analysis of the current situation with the coronavirus in Africa. It reveals the specific features of the pandemic and the socio-political and economic consequences thereof. The author concludes that, taking exploiting the pandemic, the United States and its allies are like likely to attempt weakening the PRC’s position in Africa and preventing Russia from building up its influence. The latter, especially, in view of the success of the Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum held in October 2019, in Sochi. However, Washington’s grand plans on the African continent are seriously constrained by the fact that Africans have long asserted themselves as full-capacity subjects in international relations and refuse to be pawns in the intricate games between the United States, China and other players for world leadership. The coronavirus pandemic will undoubtedly change the position of the continent in the new “post-coronavirus” world, but these changes largely depend on how and with whose assistance Africans are to  overcome this serious test.The paper contains the results of online opinion-polling of African experts conducted by the author of the article.The author makes an attempt to explain the “Africa phenomenon” of the coronavirus pandemic, assesses the main risks of the spread of the epidemic and the possibilities of overcoming it. Special attention is paid to new opportunities for the development of the African economy in the “post-coronavirus world”, as well as the actions of the authorities to mitigate its socio-economic consequences.The author arrives to the conclusion that African countries, while less affected by the pandemic than other regions of the world, are not satisfactorily ready to fight it. The pessimistic scenario of the spread of coronavirus infection in Africa cannot be completely ruled out, and the socio-economic consequences of the pandemic can become a very serious test for most countries of the continent. At the same time, a certain redistribution of the balance of power in the region should be expected. The nations that are able in a timely manner to offer Africa significant support in the fight against the pandemic will gain. The Russian Federation has a real chance to strengthen its positions on the continent, cooperation with which may increasingly become a priority for Moscow, given the changing model of world development.

Adapting China’s African strategy to the realities of the post-COVID world

2021 ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Olga L. Fituni
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Security ◽  
World Order ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
African Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mutual Communication

In the end of 2021, the eighth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Ministerial Conference was held. The conference, which takes place every three years alternately in the PRC and one of the African countries, each time marks a certain new stage in the development of Sino-African relations and charts new paths along this path. The Dakar forum however was of particular strategic importance. It took place in fundamentally new conditions of a profoundly changed post-COVID world, in which the physical capabilities and limitations of mutual communication became different, because of the pandemic; the conditions of human security on the planet have fundamentally changed; the prevailing paradigms of the globalization process have been seriously. The FOCAC-2021 sought to outline the ways for the development of the entire multifaceted complex of Sino-African in new historical conditions. The author analyzes the degree of implementation of the plans and targets of the previous FOCAC-2018 Summit. New benchmarks and goals for the next three years of Sino-African cooperation and the impact on them of new objective conditions, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the growth of confrontation in relations between the PRC and the United States and its allies, and the reformatting of previous globalization ties and interdependencies are highlighted as they have been outlined in Dakar. The author argues that, despite these fundamental global transformations, China's African strategy, in contrast to relations with a number of key world actors, does not undergo a profound modification. China sets the task not to fundamentally change, its strategy in African and routine engagement with its with partners on the continent under the influence of the new factors, but only to adapt to the realities of the post-COVID world order, in the context of the emerging balance of power and interests in the world.

scholarly journals Know Your Epidemic, Know Your Response: Covid-19 in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Ciancio ◽  
Fabrice Kämpfen ◽  
Iliana V. Kohler ◽  
Daniel Bennett ◽  
Wändi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
College Education ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Socioeconomic Consequences

We document that during the week of March 10–16, the Covid-19 pandemic fundamentally affected the perceptions of U.S. residents about the health risks and socioeconomic consequences entailed by the pandemic. During this week, it seems, “everything changed.” Not only did the pandemic progress rapidly across the United States, but U.S. residents started to realize that the threat was real: increasing Covid-19 caseloads heightened perceptions of infection risks and excess mortality risks, concerns about the economic implications increased substantially, and behavioral responses became widespread as the pandemic expanded rapidly in the U.S. In early to mid-March 2020, average perceptions about the coronavirus infection risks are broadly consistent with projections about the pandemic, while expectations about dying conditional on infection and expectations about Covid-19-related excess mortality during the next months are possibly too pessimistic. However, some aspects of Covid-19 perceptions are disconcerting from the perspective of implementing and sustaining an effective societal response to the pandemic. For instance, the education gradient in expected infection risks entails the possibility of having different perceptions of the reality of the pandemic between people with and without a college education, potentially resulting in two different levels of behavioral and policy-responses across individuals and regions. Unless addressed by effective health communication that reaches individuals across all social strata, some of the misperceptions about Covid-19 epidemic raise concerns about the ability of the United States to implement and sustain the widespread and harsh policies that are required to curtail the pandemic. Our analyses also reveal perceptions of becoming infected with the virus, and dying from Covid-19, were driven upwards by a rapidly increasing national caseload, and perceptions of the economic consequences and the adaptation of social distancing were affected by both national and state-level cases.

India and Vietnam in the Indo-Pacific

2021 ◽  
pp. 097492842110049
Author(s):  
Sanjay Pulipaka ◽  
Libni Garg
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Order ◽  
Territorial Aggression ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Power Shift ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Common Position ◽  
Foreign Policy Strategies

The international order today is characterised by power shift and increasing multipolarity. Countries such as India and Vietnam are working to consolidate the evolving multipolarity in the Indo-Pacific. The article maps the convergences in the Indian and Vietnamese foreign policy strategies and in their approaches to the Indo-Pacific. Both countries confront similar security challenges, such as creeping territorial aggression. Further, India and Vietnam are collaborating with the United States and Japan to maintain a favourable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. While Delhi and Hanoi agree on the need to reform the United Nations, there is still some distance to travel to find a common position on regional economic architectures. The India–Vietnam partnership demonstrates that nation-states will seek to define the structure of the international order and in this instance by increasing the intensity of multipolarity.

scholarly journals Predicting the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States Using Graph Theory-Based Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 3834
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Davahli ◽  
Krzysztof Fiok ◽  
Waldemar Karwowski ◽  
Awad M. Aljuaid ◽  
Redha Taiar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Graph Theory ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
The United States ◽  
Graphical Analysis ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Current Status ◽  
The Usa

The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented social and economic consequences in the United States. Therefore, accurately predicting the dynamics of the pandemic can be very beneficial. Two main elements required for developing reliable predictions include: (1) a predictive model and (2) an indicator of the current condition and status of the pandemic. As a pandemic indicator, we used the effective reproduction number (Rt), which is defined as the number of new infections transmitted by a single contagious individual in a population that may no longer be fully susceptible. To bring the pandemic under control, Rt must be less than one. To eliminate the pandemic, Rt should be close to zero. Therefore, this value may serve as a strong indicator of the current status of the pandemic. For a predictive model, we used graph neural networks (GNNs), a method that combines graphical analysis with the structure of neural networks. We developed two types of GNN models, including: (1) graph-theory-based neural networks (GTNN) and (2) neighborhood-based neural networks (NGNN). The nodes in both graphs indicated individual states in the US states. While the GTNN model’s edges document functional connectivity between states, those in the NGNN model link neighboring states to one another. We trained both models with Rt numbers collected over the previous four days and asked them to predict the following day for all states in the USA. The performance of these models was evaluated with the datasets that included Rt values reflecting conditions from 22 January through 26 November 2020 (before the start of COVID-19 vaccination in the USA). To determine the efficiency, we compared the results of two models with each other and with those generated by a baseline Long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The results indicated that the GTNN model outperformed both the NGNN and LSTM models for predicting Rt.

Unipolarity

2008 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Jervis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Structural Analysis ◽  
Current System ◽  
Nuclear Proliferation ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States

In analyzing the current unipolar system, it is useful to begin with structure. No other state or plausible coalition can challenge the unipole's core security, but this does not mean that all its values are safe or that it can get everything that it wants. Contrary to what is often claimed, standard balance of power arguments do not imply that a coalition will form to challenge the unipole. Realism also indicates that rather than seeking to maintain the system, the unipole may seek further expansion. To understand the current system requires combining structural analysis with an appreciation of the particular characteristics of the current era, the United States, and its leaders. Doing so shows further incentives to change the system and highlights the role of nuclear proliferation in modifying existing arrangements.

Confronting Soviet Power: U.S. Policy during the Early Cold War

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 151-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Avey
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cold War ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soviet Power ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Distribution Of Power

Many self-identified realist, liberal, and constructivist scholars contend that ideology played a critical role in generating and shaping the United States' decision to confront the Soviet Union in the early Cold War. A close look at the history reveals that these ideological arguments fail to explain key aspects of U.S. policy. Contrary to ideological explanations, the United States initially sought to cooperate with the Soviet Union, did not initially pressure communist groups outside the Soviet orbit, and later sought to engage communist groups that promised to undermine Soviet power. The U.S. decision to confront the Soviets stemmed instead from the distribution of power. U.S. policy shifted toward a confrontational approach as the balance of power in Eurasia tilted in favor of the Soviet Union. In addition, U.S. leaders tended to think and act in a manner consistent with balance of power logic. The primacy of power over ideology in U.S. policymaking—given the strong liberal tradition in the United States and the large differences between U.S. and Soviet ideology—suggests that relative power concerns are the most important factors in generating and shaping confrontational foreign policies.

scholarly journals Economic Impact from Unrestricted Spread of Potato Cyst Nematodes in Australia

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (12) ◽  
pp. 1387-1393 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hodda ◽  
D. C. Cook
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Annual Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Potato Cyst Nematodes ◽  
Cyst Nematodes ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Alternative Responses

Potato cyst nematodes (PCN) (Globodera spp.) are quarantine pests with serious potential economic consequences. Recent new detections in Australia, Canada, and the United States have focussed attention on the consequences of spread and economic justifications for alternative responses. Here, a full assessment of the economic impact of PCN spread from a small initial incursion is presented. Models linking spread, population growth, and economic impact are combined to estimate costs of spread without restriction in Australia. Because the characteristics of the Australian PCN populations are currently unknown, the known ranges of parameters were used to obtain cost scenarios, an approach which makes the model predictions applicable generally. Our analysis indicates that mean annual costs associated with spread of PCN would increase rapidly initially, associated with increased testing. Costs would then increase more slowly to peak at over AUD$20 million per year ≈10 years into the future. Afterward, this annual cost would decrease slightly due to discounting factors. Mean annual costs over 20 years were $18.7 million, with a 90% confidence interval between AUD$11.9 million and AUD$27.0 million. Thus, cumulative losses to Australian agriculture over 20 years may exceed $370 million without action to prevent spread of PCN and entry to new areas.

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