scholarly journals Modeling the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charit Samyak Narayanan
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us States ◽  
Mainstream Media ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe COVID-19 contagion has developed at an alarming rate in the US and as of April 24, 2020, tens of thousands of people have already died from the disease. In the event of an outbreak like such, forecasting the extent of the mortality that will occur is crucial to aid the implementation of effective interventions. Mortality depends on two factors: the case fatality rate and the case incidence. We combine a cohort-based model that determines case fatality rates along with a modified logistic model that evaluates the case incidence to determine the number of deaths in all the US states over time; the model is also able to include the impact of interventions. Both models yield exceptional goodness-of-fit. The model predicted a range of death outcomes (79k to 246k) all of which are considerably greater than the figures presented in mainstream media. This model can be used more effectively than current models to estimate the number of deaths during an outbreak, allowing for better planning.

scholarly journals COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by case investigation and contact tracing in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Rainisch ◽  
Seonghye Jeon ◽  
Danielle Pappas ◽  
Kimberly Spencer ◽  
Leah S Fischer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Federally Funded ◽  
Us States ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Case Investigation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
The Impact

Importance: Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 Case Investigation and Contact Tracing (CICT) programs is lacking. Policymakers need this evidence to assess its value. Objective: Estimate COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted nationwide by US states' CICT programs. Design: We combined data from US CICT programs (e.g., proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days to case and contact notification) with incidence data to model CICT impacts over 60 days period (November 25, 2020 to January 23, 2021) during the height of the pandemic. We estimated a range of impacts by varying assumed compliance with isolation and quarantine recommendations. Setting: US States and Territories Participants: Fifty-nine state and territorial health departments that received federal funding supporting COVID-19 pandemic response activities were eligible for inclusion. Of these, 22 states and 1 territory reported all measures necessary for the analysis. These 23 jurisdictions covered 42.5% of the US population (140 million persons), spanned all 4 census regions, and reported data that reflected all 59 federally funded CICT programs. Intervention: Public health case investigation and contact tracing Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases and hospitalizations averted; percent of cases averted among cases not prevented by vaccination and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (other NPIs). Results: We estimated 1.11 million cases and 27,231 hospitalizations were averted by CICT programs under a scenario where 80% of interviewed cases and monitored contacts, and 30% of notified contacts fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidance, eliminating their contributions to future transmission. As many as 1.36 million cases and 33,527 hospitalizations could have been prevented if all interviewed cases and monitored contacts had entered into and fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidelines upon being interviewed or notified. Across all scenarios and jurisdictions, CICT averted a median of 21.2% (range: 1.3% - 65.8%) of the cases not prevented by vaccination and other NPIs. Conclusions and Relevance: CICT programs likely had a substantial role in curtailing the pandemic in most jurisdictions during the winter 2020-2021 peak. Differences in impact across jurisdictions indicate an opportunity to further improve CICT effectiveness. These estimates demonstrate the potential benefits from sustaining and improving these programs.

Administrative Law and Multi-Level Administration: An EU and US Comparison

2009 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 211-246
Author(s):  
Catherine Donnelly
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Administrative Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
Us States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Eu And Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

AbstractThe aim of this chapter is to assess what, if anything, administrative law can demonstrate about multi-level administration in the European Union and the United States. The particular focus of the examination is not on the content of administrative law in each legal order, but rather on the impact of EU and US federal administrative law on the Member States and US States respectively. It will be seen that, while US federal administrative law has primarily only influential effect on US States, EU administrative law is often binding on Member States. This observation challenges presumptions often made, particularly in political science, as to the degrees of inter-penetration in administration in the EU and the US. It will be argued that the cause of divergence is largely derived from differing judicial attitudes as to the fundamental tenets of the co-operation between the different levels of administration, and indeed, more general understandings of federalism in the two jurisdictions. In this way, this study also provides a useful prism through which to consider integration in the EU and US more broadly.

Administrative Law and Multi-Level Administration: An EU and US Comparison

2009 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 211-246
Author(s):  
Catherine Donnelly
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Administrative Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
Us States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Eu And Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Abstract The aim of this chapter is to assess what, if anything, administrative law can demonstrate about multi-level administration in the European Union and the United States. The particular focus of the examination is not on the content of administrative law in each legal order, but rather on the impact of EU and US federal administrative law on the Member States and US States respectively. It will be seen that, while US federal administrative law has primarily only influential effect on US States, EU administrative law is often binding on Member States. This observation challenges presumptions often made, particularly in political science, as to the degrees of inter-penetration in administration in the EU and the US. It will be argued that the cause of divergence is largely derived from differing judicial attitudes as to the fundamental tenets of the co-operation between the different levels of administration, and indeed, more general understandings of federalism in the two jurisdictions. In this way, this study also provides a useful prism through which to consider integration in the EU and US more broadly.

scholarly journals An improved methodology for estimating the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virag Patel ◽  
Catherine McCarthy ◽  
Rachel A Taylor ◽  
Ruth Moir ◽  
Louise A Kelly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Distribution ◽  
Healthcare Providers ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Us States ◽  
Disease Patterns ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

Since the identification of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China in December 2019, there have been more than 17 million cases of the disease in 216 countries worldwide. Comparisons of prevalence estimates between different communities can inform policy decisions regarding safe travel between countries, help to assess when to implement (or remove) disease control measures and identify the risk of over-burdening healthcare providers. Estimating the true prevalence can, however, be challenging because officially reported figures are likely to be significant underestimates of the true burden of COVID-19 within a community. Previous methods for estimating the prevalence fail to incorporate differences between populations (such as younger populations having higher rates of asymptomatic cases) and so comparisons between, for example, countries, can be misleading. Here, we present an improved methodology for estimating COVID-19 prevalence. We take the reported number of cases and deaths (together with population size) as raw prevalence for the population. We then apply an age-adjustment to this which allows the age-distribution of that population to influence the case-fatality rate and the proportion of asymptomatic cases. Finally, we calculate the likely underreporting factor for the population and use this to adjust our prevalence estimate further. We use our method to estimate the prevalence for 166 countries (or the states of the United States of America, hereafter referred to as US state) where sufficient data were available. Our estimates show that as of the 30th July 2020, the top three countries with the highest estimated prevalence are Brazil (1.26%, 95% CI: 0.96 - 1.37), Kyrgyzstan (1.10%, 95% CI: 0.82 - 1.19) and Suriname (0.58%, 95% CI: 0.44 - 0.63). Brazil is predicted to have the largest proportion of all the current global cases (30.41%, 95%CI: 27.52 - 30.84), followed by the USA (14.52%, 95%CI: 14.26 - 16.34) and India (11.23%, 95%CI: 11.11 - 11.24). Amongst the US states, the highest prevalence is predicted to be in Louisiana (1.07%, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.12), Florida (0.90%, 95% CI: 0.86 - 0.94) and Mississippi (0.77%, 95% CI: 0.74 - 0.81) whereas amongst European countries, the highest prevalence is predicted to be in Montenegro (0.47%, 95% CI: 0.42 - 0.50), Kosovo (0.35%, 95% CI: 0.29 - 0.37) and Moldova (0.28%, 95% CI: 0.23 - 0.30). Our results suggest that Kyrgyzstan (0.04 tests per predicted case), Brazil (0.04 tests per predicted case) and Suriname (0.29 tests per predicted case) have the highest underreporting out of the countries in the top 25 prevalence. In comparison, Israel (34.19 tests per predicted case), Bahrain (19.82 per predicted case) and Palestine (9.81 tests per predicted case) have the least underreporting. The results of this study may be used to understand the risk between different geographical areas and highlight regions where the prevalence of COVID-19 is increasing most rapidly. The method described is quick and easy to implement. Prevalence estimates should be updated on a regular basis to allow for rapid fluctuations in disease patterns.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Spring Freeze Damage of Pecan Bloom: A Review

Horticulturae ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Amandeep Kaur ◽  
Louise Ferguson ◽  
Niels Maness ◽  
Becky Carroll ◽  
William Reid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Height ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Organs ◽  
Tree Age ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nut Production ◽  
Freeze Damage ◽  
Terminal Buds ◽  
And Function ◽  
The Impact

Pecan is native to the United States. The US is the world’s largest pecan producer with an average yearly production of 250 to 300 million pounds; 80 percent of the world’s supply. Georgia, New Mexico, Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, California, Louisiana, and Florida are the major US pecan producing states. Pecan trees frequently suffer from spring freeze at bud break and bloom as the buds are quite sensitive to freeze damage. This leads to poor flower and nut production. This review focuses on the impact of spring freeze during bud differentiation and flower development. Spring freeze kills the primary terminal buds, the pecan tree has a second chance for growth and flowering through secondary buds. Unfortunately, secondary buds have less bloom potential than primary buds and nut yield is reduced. Spring freeze damage depends on severity of the freeze, bud growth stage, cultivar type and tree age, tree height and tree vigor. This review discusses the impact of temperature on structure and function of male and female reproductive organs. It also summarizes carbohydrate relations as another factor that may play an important role in spring growth and transition of primary and secondary buds to flowers.

scholarly journals THU0442 GOUT AND HEART FAILURE IN THE US: A NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 458.2-458
Author(s):  
G. Singh ◽  
M. Sehgal ◽  
A. Mithal
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Burden Of Illness ◽  
Average Length ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us

Background:Heart failure (HF) is the eighth leading cause of death in the US, with a 38% increase in the number of deaths due to HF from 2011 to 2017 (1). Gout and hyperuricemia have previously been recognized as significant risk factors for heart failure (2), but there is little nationwide data on the clinical and economic consequences of these comorbidities.Objectives:To study heart failure hospitalizations in patients with gout in the United States (US) and estimate their clinical and economic impact.Methods:The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) is a stratified random sample of all US community hospitals. It is the only US national hospital database with information on all patients, regardless of payer, including persons covered by Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance, and the uninsured. We examined all inpatient hospitalizations in the NIS in 2017, the most recent year of available data, with a primary or secondary diagnosis of gout and heart failure. Over 69,800 ICD 10 diagnoses were collapsed into a smaller number of clinically meaningful categories, consistent with the CDC Clinical Classification Software.Results:There were 35.8 million all-cause hospitalizations in patients in the US in 2017. Of these, 351,735 hospitalizations occurred for acute and/or chronic heart failure in patients with gout. These patients had a mean age of 73.3 years (95% confidence intervals 73.1 – 73.5 years) and were more likely to be male (63.4%). The average length of hospitalization was 6.1 days (95% confidence intervals 6.0 to 6.2 days) with a case fatality rate of 3.5% (95% confidence intervals 3.4% – 3.7%). The average cost of each hospitalization was $63,992 (95% confidence intervals $61,908 - $66,075), with a total annual national cost estimate of $22.8 billion (95% confidence intervals $21.7 billion - $24.0 billion).Conclusion:While gout and hyperuricemia have long been recognized as potential risk factors for heart failure, the aging of the US population is projected to significantly increase the burden of illness and costs of care of these comorbidities (1). This calls for an increased awareness and management of serious co-morbid conditions in patients with gout.References:[1]Sidney, S., Go, A. S., Jaffe, M. G., Solomon, M. D., Ambrosy, A. P., & Rana, J. S. (2019). Association Between Aging of the US Population and Heart Disease Mortality From 2011 to 2017. JAMA Cardiology. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2019.4187[2]Krishnan E. Gout and the risk for incident heart failure and systolic dysfunction. BMJ Open 2012;2:e000282.doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000282Disclosure of Interests: :Gurkirpal Singh Grant/research support from: Horizon Therapeutics, Maanek Sehgal: None declared, Alka Mithal: None declared

scholarly journals Mining Google and Apple mobility data: temporal anatomy for COVID-19 social distancing

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Actual Measure ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions ◽  
Mobility Reduction

AbstractWe employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Our analysis allows us to classify different shades of social distancing measures for the first wave of the pandemic. We observe a strong decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction. A universal time scale emerges, after which social distancing shows its impact. We further provide an actual measure of the impact of social distancing for each region, showing that the effect amounts to a reduction by 20–40% in the infection rate in Europe and 30–70% in the US.

GPTs and growth: evidence on the technological adoption of electrical and electronic technologies in the 1920s

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Petralia
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
General Purpose Technologies ◽  
Technological Adoption ◽  
Transformative Potential ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Electronic Technologies ◽  
Patenting Activity

Abstract The pervasive diffusion of electricity-related technologies at the beginning of the twentieth century has been studied extensively to understand the transformative potential of general purpose technologies (GPTs). Most of what we know, however, has been investigated in relation to the diffusion of their use. This article provides evidence on the county-level economic impact of the technological adoption of electrical and electronic (E&E) technologies in the 1920s in the United States (US). It focuses on measuring the impact of a GPT on technological adopters, i.e., those who are able to develop, transform, and complement it. It is shown that places with patenting activity in E&E technologies grew faster and paid higher wages than others between 1920 and 1930. This analysis required constructing a novel database identifying detailed geographical information for historical patent documents in the US since 1836, as well as developing a text-mining algorithm to identify E&E patents based on patent descriptions.

scholarly journals The Impact of the US Financial Crisis on How Students Pay for College

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur M. Hauptman
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Federal Financial Aid ◽  
For Profit ◽  
American Students ◽  
The Us ◽  
Home Values ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Private Loan ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

The 2008 failure of major financial institutions in the United States may have dramatic ramifications on American students and whether/where they attend college. Several sources of funding may be at risk, including potential decreases in federal financial aid, the tightening of private loan availability, lowered home values impinging on equity-based lending, and stock market losses in college-fund savings. Public institutions, whose tuition is much lower than private or for-profit institutions, may see an increase in enrollment.

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