scholarly journals An improved methodology for estimating the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virag Patel ◽  
Catherine McCarthy ◽  
Rachel A Taylor ◽  
Ruth Moir ◽  
Louise A Kelly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Distribution ◽  
Healthcare Providers ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Us States ◽  
Disease Patterns ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

Since the identification of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China in December 2019, there have been more than 17 million cases of the disease in 216 countries worldwide. Comparisons of prevalence estimates between different communities can inform policy decisions regarding safe travel between countries, help to assess when to implement (or remove) disease control measures and identify the risk of over-burdening healthcare providers. Estimating the true prevalence can, however, be challenging because officially reported figures are likely to be significant underestimates of the true burden of COVID-19 within a community. Previous methods for estimating the prevalence fail to incorporate differences between populations (such as younger populations having higher rates of asymptomatic cases) and so comparisons between, for example, countries, can be misleading. Here, we present an improved methodology for estimating COVID-19 prevalence. We take the reported number of cases and deaths (together with population size) as raw prevalence for the population. We then apply an age-adjustment to this which allows the age-distribution of that population to influence the case-fatality rate and the proportion of asymptomatic cases. Finally, we calculate the likely underreporting factor for the population and use this to adjust our prevalence estimate further. We use our method to estimate the prevalence for 166 countries (or the states of the United States of America, hereafter referred to as US state) where sufficient data were available. Our estimates show that as of the 30th July 2020, the top three countries with the highest estimated prevalence are Brazil (1.26%, 95% CI: 0.96 - 1.37), Kyrgyzstan (1.10%, 95% CI: 0.82 - 1.19) and Suriname (0.58%, 95% CI: 0.44 - 0.63). Brazil is predicted to have the largest proportion of all the current global cases (30.41%, 95%CI: 27.52 - 30.84), followed by the USA (14.52%, 95%CI: 14.26 - 16.34) and India (11.23%, 95%CI: 11.11 - 11.24). Amongst the US states, the highest prevalence is predicted to be in Louisiana (1.07%, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.12), Florida (0.90%, 95% CI: 0.86 - 0.94) and Mississippi (0.77%, 95% CI: 0.74 - 0.81) whereas amongst European countries, the highest prevalence is predicted to be in Montenegro (0.47%, 95% CI: 0.42 - 0.50), Kosovo (0.35%, 95% CI: 0.29 - 0.37) and Moldova (0.28%, 95% CI: 0.23 - 0.30). Our results suggest that Kyrgyzstan (0.04 tests per predicted case), Brazil (0.04 tests per predicted case) and Suriname (0.29 tests per predicted case) have the highest underreporting out of the countries in the top 25 prevalence. In comparison, Israel (34.19 tests per predicted case), Bahrain (19.82 per predicted case) and Palestine (9.81 tests per predicted case) have the least underreporting. The results of this study may be used to understand the risk between different geographical areas and highlight regions where the prevalence of COVID-19 is increasing most rapidly. The method described is quick and easy to implement. Prevalence estimates should be updated on a regular basis to allow for rapid fluctuations in disease patterns.

scholarly journals LEGAL REGULATION OF MARRIAGE IN FACT IN RUSSIA AND THE USA

2016 ◽  
pp. 0-0
Author(s):  
Анна Назарова ◽  
Anna Nazarova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
The United States ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
Marriage And Family ◽  
Us States ◽  
Legal Norms ◽  
Legal Method ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

This article is devoted to the analysis of legal regulation of marriage in fact in the Russian Federation and the United States. The purpose of this work is due to an increase in the number of marriage in fact and as a consequence the need for legal regulation of these relations. For a comprehensive study the author uses comparative legal method that takes into account the experience of not only Russia, but also foreign states. The author examines the legal regulation of marriage in fact in Russia and the United States; defines the legal norms, which is applied for the regulation of relations between the actual spouses, current Russian legislation and the legislation of the states of the USA. In the issue the researcher comes to the conclusion that neither in Russia, nor in the US states in the regulation of marriage in fact, special marriage and family provisions are not applied. At the same time the factual spouses are under legal protection. In Russia, the legal regulation of the relations developing between the actual spouses, no different from the regulation of corresponding relations of other persons. In some US states the actual spouses have special rights and duties, the scope of which is substantially less than the amount of the rights and duties of legal spouses.

scholarly journals Modeling the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charit Samyak Narayanan
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us States ◽  
Mainstream Media ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe COVID-19 contagion has developed at an alarming rate in the US and as of April 24, 2020, tens of thousands of people have already died from the disease. In the event of an outbreak like such, forecasting the extent of the mortality that will occur is crucial to aid the implementation of effective interventions. Mortality depends on two factors: the case fatality rate and the case incidence. We combine a cohort-based model that determines case fatality rates along with a modified logistic model that evaluates the case incidence to determine the number of deaths in all the US states over time; the model is also able to include the impact of interventions. Both models yield exceptional goodness-of-fit. The model predicted a range of death outcomes (79k to 246k) all of which are considerably greater than the figures presented in mainstream media. This model can be used more effectively than current models to estimate the number of deaths during an outbreak, allowing for better planning.

Interaction of Ukrainian Diaspora and the USA Government Regarding Celebration of Ukrainian Independence Day on January 22

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (47) ◽  
pp. 136-145
Author(s):  
Halyna Shchyhelska
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
The United States ◽  
100Th Anniversary ◽  
Totalitarian Regime ◽  
The Public ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Public Consciousness ◽  
The Usa

2018 marks the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of Ukrainian independence. OnJanuary 22, 1918, the Ukrainian People’s Republic proclaimed its independence by adopting the IV Universal of the Ukrainian Central Rada, although this significant event was «wiped out» from the public consciousness on the territory of Ukraine during the years of the Soviet totalitarian regime. At the same time, January 22 was a crucial event for the Ukrainian diaspora in the USA. This article examines how American Ukrainians interacted with the USA Government institutions regarding the celebration and recognition of the Ukrainian Independence day on January 22. The attention is focused on the activities of ethnic Ukrainians in the United States, directed at the organization of the special celebration of the Ukrainian Independence anniversaries in the US Congress and cities. Drawing from the diaspora press and Congressional Records, this article argues that many members of Congress participated in the observed celebration and expressed kind feelings to the Ukrainian people, recognised their fight for freedom, during the House of Representatives and Senate sessions. Several Congressmen submitted the resolutions in the US Congress urging the President of United States to designate January 22 as «Ukrainian lndependence Day». January 22 was proclaimed Ukrainian Day by the governors of fifteen States and mayors of many cities. Keywords: January 22, Ukrainian independence day, Ukrainian diaspora, USA, interaction, Congress

scholarly journals Trends in educational mobility: How does China compare to Europe and the United States?

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-240
Author(s):  
Rob J Gruijters ◽  
Tak Wing Chan ◽  
John Ermisch
Keyword(s):  
Educational Opportunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Educational Mobility ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Economic Boom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Large Decline ◽  
Inequality Of Educational Opportunity

Despite an impressive rise in school enrolment rates over the past few decades, there are concerns about growing inequality of educational opportunity in China. In this article, we examine the level and trend of educational mobility in China, and compare them to the situation in Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and the USA. Educational mobility is defined as the association between parents’ and children’s educational attainment. We show that China’s economic boom has been accompanied by a large decline in relative educational mobility chances, as measured by odds ratios. To elaborate, relative rates of educational mobility in China were, by international standards, quite high for those who grew up under state socialism. For the most recent cohorts, however, educational mobility rates have dropped to levels that are comparable to those of European countries, although they are still higher than the US level.

scholarly journals THU0442 GOUT AND HEART FAILURE IN THE US: A NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 458.2-458
Author(s):  
G. Singh ◽  
M. Sehgal ◽  
A. Mithal
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Burden Of Illness ◽  
Average Length ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us

Background:Heart failure (HF) is the eighth leading cause of death in the US, with a 38% increase in the number of deaths due to HF from 2011 to 2017 (1). Gout and hyperuricemia have previously been recognized as significant risk factors for heart failure (2), but there is little nationwide data on the clinical and economic consequences of these comorbidities.Objectives:To study heart failure hospitalizations in patients with gout in the United States (US) and estimate their clinical and economic impact.Methods:The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) is a stratified random sample of all US community hospitals. It is the only US national hospital database with information on all patients, regardless of payer, including persons covered by Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance, and the uninsured. We examined all inpatient hospitalizations in the NIS in 2017, the most recent year of available data, with a primary or secondary diagnosis of gout and heart failure. Over 69,800 ICD 10 diagnoses were collapsed into a smaller number of clinically meaningful categories, consistent with the CDC Clinical Classification Software.Results:There were 35.8 million all-cause hospitalizations in patients in the US in 2017. Of these, 351,735 hospitalizations occurred for acute and/or chronic heart failure in patients with gout. These patients had a mean age of 73.3 years (95% confidence intervals 73.1 – 73.5 years) and were more likely to be male (63.4%). The average length of hospitalization was 6.1 days (95% confidence intervals 6.0 to 6.2 days) with a case fatality rate of 3.5% (95% confidence intervals 3.4% – 3.7%). The average cost of each hospitalization was $63,992 (95% confidence intervals $61,908 - $66,075), with a total annual national cost estimate of $22.8 billion (95% confidence intervals $21.7 billion - $24.0 billion).Conclusion:While gout and hyperuricemia have long been recognized as potential risk factors for heart failure, the aging of the US population is projected to significantly increase the burden of illness and costs of care of these comorbidities (1). This calls for an increased awareness and management of serious co-morbid conditions in patients with gout.References:[1]Sidney, S., Go, A. S., Jaffe, M. G., Solomon, M. D., Ambrosy, A. P., & Rana, J. S. (2019). Association Between Aging of the US Population and Heart Disease Mortality From 2011 to 2017. JAMA Cardiology. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2019.4187[2]Krishnan E. Gout and the risk for incident heart failure and systolic dysfunction. BMJ Open 2012;2:e000282.doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000282Disclosure of Interests: :Gurkirpal Singh Grant/research support from: Horizon Therapeutics, Maanek Sehgal: None declared, Alka Mithal: None declared

scholarly journals Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7804
Author(s):  
Christoph Falter ◽  
Andreas Sizmann
Keyword(s):  
Hydrogen Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Fossil Energy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Solar Thermochemical

Hydrogen produced from renewable energy has the potential to decarbonize parts of the transport sector and many other industries. For a sustainable replacement of fossil energy carriers, both the environmental and economic performance of its production are important. Here, the solar thermochemical hydrogen pathway is characterized with a techno-economic and life-cycle analysis. Assuming a further increase of conversion efficiency and a reduction of investment costs, it is found that hydrogen can be produced in the United States of America at costs of 2.1–3.2 EUR/kg (2.4–3.6 USD/kg) at specific greenhouse gas emissions of 1.4 kg CO2-eq/kg. A geographical potential analysis shows that a maximum of 8.4 × 1011 kg per year can be produced, which corresponds to about twelve times the current global and about 80 times the current US hydrogen production. The best locations are found in the Southwest of the US, which have a high solar irradiation and short distances to the sea, which is beneficial for access to desalinated water. Unlike for petrochemical products, the transport of hydrogen could potentially present an obstacle in terms of cost and emissions under unfavorable circumstances. Given a large-scale deployment, low-cost transport seems, however, feasible.

The Influence of Personal Factor on US Foreign Policy (Secretary of State John Kerry)

2014 ◽  
pp. 72-83
Author(s):  
A. Borisova
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Road Map ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

The last five years defined an alternative course in the US foreign policy. Obama's reelection caused staff transfers which notably influenced the course. This comprehensive process is based on tremendous work conducted by the Administration of Barak Obama, in particular by John Kerry, who was appointed as a Secretary of State in 2013. His personality plays a significant role in American domestic and foreign policy interrelation. Adoption or rejection of the bills, which are well-known today, depended in large on a range of circumstances, such as personality, life journey and political leader career of the today's Secretary of State. John Kerry’s professional life is mainly associated with domestic policy; nevertheless, he has always been interested in foreign relations and national security issues. Those concerns generally included: non-proliferation, US security, ecological problems, fight against terrorism. The article is intended to highlight Kerry’s efforts in each of these fields, showing not only his actions, but also difficult process of adoption or banning bills in the USA. The author tried to display the whole complicated decision-making process among different parties, businessmen and politicians, law and money clashes. The results of many former endeavors can be seen today, in the modern US policy. Based on assumptions about Secretary of State’s beliefs, certain road map can be predicted. In conclusion, the article offers several courses, where the United States are likely to be most active during the next few years. It can be judged exactly which way some current political issues will develop, how the US foreign policy will be shaped by today's decision-makers in the White House.

scholarly journals The Legal Status of Election Officials in the State of Montana

Legal Concept ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 137-144
Author(s):  
Alexey Szydlowski
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
The State ◽  
Full Description ◽  
Election Law ◽  
Us States ◽  
American Federation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us

Introduction: the election law of the US states to date remains insufficiently studied not only in Russia but also abroad. This is due to the fact that the legal regulation of the electoral process in America is attributed to the powers of the states or municipalities, depending on the legal doctrine applied by the state – Cooley Doctrine or Dillon Rule, which objectively imposes a limit on its study and generalization. The purpose of the study is to acquaint a wide range of scientific community with the latest research in the field of the US election law in regard to the first in the domestic law full description of the organizers of elections and referendums at the state and municipal levels in the United States. The author reviews a wide range of regional and local legislation with references to the constitutional, legal and regulatory acts of the US States. The paper is part of a series that explores all fifty subjects of the American Federation and the District of Columbia. Procedure and methods of research: the author analyzes the constitutional and electoral legislation of the United States at the level of Montana at the beginning of 2019. The methodology of the study was the comparative law, formal-legal, formal-dogmatic, specific-sociological, empirical, dialectical, analytical methods, the systematic approach. Results: the information about the organizers of elections and referendums in Montana, which was not previously covered in the Russian scientific literature, is introduced into scientific circulation. The interpretations of certain provisions of the law and legal consciousness of the U.S election law and law enforcement practice are given. The gaps of the legislation requiring additional research are surfaced. The theoretical and practical significance lies in the generalization of both the established and the latest legal sources (constitutions, organic laws, federal laws, charters, by-laws and regulations) of the United States and the subject of the American Federation and the development of proposals for the enrichment of the Russian science and the formation of objective understanding of the processes taking place in the United States in the field of constitutional, electoral law and the state-building. Conclusions: for a systematic and comparative legal analysis the author proposed the review of the legislation on the organizers of elections and referendums of Montana, revealing the existing contradictions, from the point of view of the Russian researcher, which allows considering the full range of elements of the electoral legislation of Montana from a new angle, seeing new legal structures, previously unknown to the domestic statesmen and law enforcers.

A brief history of Pakistan–USSR bilateral relations 1947–1991

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (01) ◽  
pp. 171-181
Author(s):  
Muhammad Naveed Ul Hasan Shah ◽  
Muhammad Irfan Mahsud ◽  
Azadar Ali Hamza
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Western World ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
History Of ◽  
Soviet Invasion ◽  
The Persian Gulf

Pakistan, since 1947 remains under the umbrella of US, as a result, relations of Pakistan were not smooth with anti US states including USSR. The US was to increase its role in the region in order to make secure the largest petroleum reserves in the Persian Gulf. Pakistan’s alignment with the western world was mainly to counter possible Indian aggression, not to lessen the Soviet influence in the region, but the approach was more or less thwarting Soviet interests in the region. Over 3 million Afghan refugees had travelled to Pakistan in the 1st year of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. The main objective of the USA during the initial stages of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was primarily to ensure that the Soviet exercise would be a costly one. The United States of America supported Afghan militants with the help of Pakistan to organize them against the USSR. A general perception is that US did not want to be directly involved to thwart the Soviet invasion; rather USA handed over the operational aspect of the program to the Pakistan. The Pakistan was in charge of providing the funds and weapons to the mujahedin and setting up training camps. The US remained indecisive over the next course of action in Afghanistan and the Pakistan took the opportunity to carry out its own agenda in Afghanistan to promote their national interests.

Antitrust Regulation of IT Giants` Activities: Main Trends of Foreign and Russian Legislation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.V. Shram ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Network Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Economic Concentration ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Antitrust Regulation

The article is devoted to the antimonopoly regulation of IT giants` activities. The author presents an overview of the main trends in foreign and Russian legislation in this area. The problems the antimonopoly regulation of digital markets faces are the following: the complexity of determining the criteria for the dominant position of economic entities in the digital economy and the criteria for assessing the economic concentration in the commodity digital markets; the identification and suppression of cartels; the relationship between competition law and intellectual property rights in the digital age. Some aspects of these problems are considered through the prism of the main trends in the antimonopoly policy in the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Russia. The investigation findings of the USA House of Representatives Antitrust Subcommittee against Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook are presented. The author justifies the need to separate them, which requires the adoption of appropriate amendments to the antimonopoly legislation. The article analyzes the draft law of the European Commission on the regulation of digital markets – Digital Markets Act, reveals the criteria for classifying IT companies as «gatekeepers», and notes the specific approaches to antimonopoly regulation in the UK and the US. The article describes the concepts «digital platform» and «network effects», presented in the «fifth antimonopoly package of amendments», developed in 2018 by the Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation, and gives an overview of the comments of the Ministry of Economic Development regarding these concepts wording in the text of the draft law, which formed the basis for the negative conclusion of the regulator. It is concluded that in the context of the digital markets’ globalization, there is a need for the international legal nature antitrust norms formation, since regional legislation obviously cannot cope with the monopolistic activities of IT giants.

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