scholarly journals Development of an interactive, agent-based local stochastic model of COVID-19 transmission and evaluation of mitigation strategies illustrated for the state of Massachusetts, USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Kirpich ◽  
Vladimir Koniukhovskii ◽  
Vladimir Shvartc ◽  
Pavel Skums ◽  
Thomas A. Weppelmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Isolation Techniques ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Since its discovery in the Hubei province of China, the global spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in millions of COVID-19 cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The spread throughout Asia, Europe, and the Americas has presented one of the greatest infectious disease threats in recent history and has tested the capacity of global health infrastructures. Since no effective vaccine is available, isolation techniques to prevent infection such as home quarantine and social distancing while in public have remained the cornerstone of public health interventions. While government and health officials were charged with implementing stay-at-home strategies, many of which had little guidance as to the consequences of how quickly to begin them. Moreover, as the local epidemic curves have been flattened, the same officials must wrestle with when to ease or cease such restrictions as to not impose economic turmoil. To evaluate the effects of quarantine strategies during the initial epidemic, an agent based modeling framework was created to take into account local spread based on geographic and population data with a corresponding interactive desktop and web-based application. Using the state of Massachusetts in the United States of America, we have illustrated the consequences of implementing quarantines at different time points after the initial seeding of the state with COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, we suggest that this application can be adapted to other states, small countries, or regions within a country to provide decision makers with critical information necessary to best protect human health.

scholarly journals Development of an interactive, agent-based local stochastic model of COVID-19 transmission and evaluation of mitigation strategies illustrated for the state of Massachusetts, USA

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0247182
Author(s):  
Alexander Kirpich ◽  
Vladimir Koniukhovskii ◽  
Vladimir Shvartc ◽  
Pavel Skums ◽  
Thomas A. Weppelmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Isolation Techniques ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Since its discovery in the Hubei province of China, the global spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in millions of COVID-19 cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The spread throughout Asia, Europe, and the Americas has presented one of the greatest infectious disease threats in recent history and has tested the capacity of global health infrastructures. Since no effective vaccine is available, isolation techniques to prevent infection such as home quarantine and social distancing while in public have remained the cornerstone of public health interventions. While government and health officials were charged with implementing stay-at-home strategies, many of which had little guidance as to the consequences of how quickly to begin them. Moreover, as the local epidemic curves have been flattened, the same officials must wrestle with when to ease or cease such restrictions as to not impose economic turmoil. To evaluate the effects of quarantine strategies during the initial epidemic, an agent based modeling framework was created to take into account local spread based on geographic and population data with a corresponding interactive desktop and web-based application. Using the state of Massachusetts in the United States of America, we have illustrated the consequences of implementing quarantines at different time points after the initial seeding of the state with COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, we suggest that this application can be adapted to other states, small countries, or regions within a country to provide decision makers with critical information necessary to best protect human health.

scholarly journals Political Ideology and the Outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Rosenfeld
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Unique Role ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

At the state level within the United States, did political ideology predict the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Throughout March 2020, the United States became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, recording the most cases of any country worldwide. The current research found that, at the state level within the United States, more conservative political ideology predicted delayed implementation of stay-at-home orders and more rapid spread of COVID-19. Effects were significant across two distinct operationalizations of political ideology and held over and above relevant covariates, suggesting a potentially unique role of political ideology in the United States’ COVID-19 outbreak. Considering political ideological factors may offer valuable insights into epidemiological processes surrounding COVID-19.

Symptoms and Side Effects of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) among healthcare workers

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3202-3204
Author(s):  
Dawood Javed ◽  
Yazeed Hadi Alharbi ◽  
Abdullah Javed ◽  
Javed Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Sampling Strategy ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Healthy Population ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Post Vaccination ◽  
Local Methods ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
A Prospective Study

Aim: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel coronavirus which has infected millions of people across the globe in the form of a deadly pandemic. Safe and efficacious vaccines are needed urgently to prevent disease in the healthy population or at least decrease the intensity of illness post vaccination. Aim: To assess the post vaccination side effects among groups of individuals so that an effective vaccine can be proposed according to the individuals and thus avoiding reactogenicity, both systemic and local. Methods: A prospective study was conducted with the help of a web-based questionnaire (among health care workers) which used snowball sampling strategy and assigned persons aged ≥25-65 years, who received an intramuscular injection of the vaccine manufactured by Oxford-AstraZeneca. Safety and side effects were observed over a period of 15-20 days post vaccination to obtain results. Results: A total of 564 participants took part in the survey who received the vaccine via intramuscular route. Both systemic and local reactogenicity were recorded. Of the respondents, 280 (49.6%) people reported fever, 322 (57.18%) had pain, 89 (15.77%) had swelling and 53 (9.3%) had redness at the injection site. Total of 368 (65.2%) individuals suffered from body aches of whom 324 (57.4%) also reported headaches. Conclusion: Assessing the post vaccination symptoms, side effects and complications of AstraZeneca among different individuals helped in providing crucial and important information regarding the efficacy, safety and nature of the vaccine. Keywords: Covid-19, pandemic, vaccines, reactogenicity

scholarly journals The Novel Coronavirus and Undocumented Farmworkers in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 104829112198900
Author(s):  
Olayemi O. Matthew ◽  
Paul F. Monaghan ◽  
John S. Luque
Keyword(s):  
Legal Status ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Working And Living Conditions

The Covid-19 pandemic has greatly impacted frontline workers’ health in 2020. The objective of this commentary is to evaluate some of the challenges faced by undocumented farmworkers in the context of the current global pandemic and possible risk mitigation strategies. Undocumented farmworkers make considerable contributions to the U.S. economy and food production, but they are at an elevated risk for contracting Covid-19. Their risk is compounded by their employment and legal status, as well as their poor working and living conditions which makes it difficult for them to observe Covid-19 precautionary measures. U.S. immigration policy disincentivizes undocumented farmworkers from seeking healthcare services. Contact tracing challenges could be overcome by gaining trust with subsequent increased testing and care. Extending eligibility of safety net programs for undocumented farmworkers will help to ease the burden of Covid-19, thereby improving their overall health and productivity.

scholarly journals Cost Benefit Analysis of Limited Reopening Relative to a Herd Immunity Strategy or Shelter in Place for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert B. Schonberger ◽  
Yair J. Listokin ◽  
Ian Ayres ◽  
Reza Yaesoubi ◽  
Zachary R. Shelley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
United States Government ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mortality Effect ◽  
Life Years

ABSTRACTBackgroundFierce debate about the health and financial tradeoffs presented by different COVID-19 pandemic mitigation strategies highlights the need for rigorous quantitative evaluation of policy options.ObjectiveTo quantify the economic value of the costs and benefits of a policy of continued limited reopening with social distancing relative to alternative COVID-19 response strategies in the United States.DesignWe estimate the number and value of quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained from mortality averted, with a value of $125,000 per QALY, and compare these benefits to the associated costs in terms of plausible effects on US GDP under a policy of continued limited reopening with social distancing relative to a policy of full reopening toward herd immunity. Using the same QALY value assumptions, we further evaluate cost-effectiveness of a return to Shelter-in-Place relative to a policy of limited reopening.SettingUnited StatesMeasurementsQALY and cost as percent of GDP of limited reopening with continued social distancing relative to a strategy of full reopening aimed at achieving herd immunity; a limited reopening “budget” measured in the number of months before this strategy fails to demonstrate cost-effectiveness relative to a full reopening; a shelter-in-place “threshold” measured in the number of lives saved at which a month of sheltering in place demonstrates cost effectiveness relative to the limited reopening strategy.ResultsQALY benefits from mortality averted by continued social distancing and limited reopening relative to a policy of full reopening exceed projected GDP costs if an effective vaccine or therapeutic can be developed within 11.1 months from late May 2020. White House vaccine projections fall within this date, supporting a partial reopening strategy. One month of shelter-in-place restrictions provides QALY benefits from averted mortality that exceed the associated GDP costs relative to limited reopening if the restrictions prevent at least 154,586 additional COVID-19 deaths over the course of the pandemic. Current models of disease progression suggest that limited reopening will not cause this many additional deaths, again supporting a limited reopening strategy.LimitationLimited horizon of COVID-19 mortality projections; infection fatality ratio stable across strategies, ignoring both the potential for ICU overload to increase mortality and the deployment of partially effective therapeutics to decrease mortality; effect on GDP modeled as constant within a given phase of the pandemic; accounts for age and sex distribution of QALYs, but not effect of comorbidities; only considers impact from QALY lost due to mortality and from changes in GDP, excluding numerous other considerations, such as non-fatal COVID-19 morbidity, reduced quality of life caused by prolonged social distancing, or educational regression associated with prolonged school closures and restrictions.ConclusionsA limited reopening to achieve partial mitigation of COVID-19 is cost effective relative to a full reopening if an effective therapeutic or vaccine can be deployed within 11.1 months of late May 2020. One additional month of shelter-in-place restrictions should only be imposed if it saves at least 154,586 lives per month before the development of an effective therapeutic or vaccine relative to limited reopening.FundingThis work was supported in part by grant K01AI119603 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). This work does not necessarily represent the opinions of the NIAID, the NIH, or the United States Government.

scholarly journals Flood Management in Texas: Planning for the Future

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Diggs ◽  
Samantha Mikolajczyk ◽  
Lora Naismith ◽  
Margaret Reed ◽  
Rory Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
State Water ◽  
Green Stormwater Infrastructure

This Report examines existing flood-related regulations in Texas and the United States, the Texas State Flood Plan, current flood mitigation strategies in the state, and the potential to implement green stormwater infrastructure. The report offers policy recommendations to clarify and help alleviate the current ambiguities and uncertainties between the Texas State Water Plan and State Flood Plan for future flood mitigation practices, and to simplify the implementation of green infrastructure.

scholarly journals Aligning Socio-economic Field Laboratories and Agent Based Models assessing local climate change adaptation measures of Andean farmers

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-17
Author(s):  
André Lindner ◽  
Francois Jost ◽  
Mariana Vidal Merino ◽  
Natalia Reategui ◽  
Jürgen Pretzsch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Communication Tool ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

The increase in extreme weather events is a major consequence of climate change in tropical mountain rangeslike the Andes of Peru. The impact on farming households is of growing interest since adaptation and mitigation strategies are required to keep race with environmental conditions and to prevent people from increasing poverty. In this regard it becomes more and more obvious that a bottom-up approach incorporating the local socioeconomic processes and their interplay is needed. Socio-economic field laboratories are used to understand such processes on site. This integrates multi-disciplinary and participatory analyses of production and its relationship with biophysical and socio-economic determinants. Farmers react individually based on their experiences, financial situation, labor conditions, or attitude among others. In this regard socio-economic field laboratories also serve to develop and test scenarios about development paths, which involve the combination of both, local and scientific knowledge. For a comprehensive understanding of the multitude of interactions the agent-based modeling framework MPMAS (Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent System) is applied. In combination with continued ground-truthing, the model is used to gain insights into the functioning of the complex social system and to forecast its development in the near future. The assessment of the effect of humans’ behavior in changing environmental conditions including the comparison of different sites, transforms the model to a communication tool bridging the gap between adaptation policies and local realities.

scholarly journals Vaccine Hesitancy and Rejection of a Vaccine for the Novel Coronavirus in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu-Fang Shih ◽  
Abram L. Wagner ◽  
Nina B. Masters ◽  
Lisa A. Prosser ◽  
Yihan Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Younger Adults ◽  
Vaccine Acceptance ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Rural Dwellers

The arrival of the COVID-19 vaccine has been accompanied by increased discussion of vaccine hesitancy. However, it is unclear if there are shared patterns between general vaccine hesitancy and COVID-19 vaccine rejection, or if these are two different concepts. This study characterized rejection of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine, and compared patterns of association between general vaccine hesitancy and COVID-19 vaccine rejection. The survey was conducted online March 20-22, 2020. Participants answered questions on vaccine hesitancy and responded if they would accept the vaccine given different safety and effectiveness profiles. We assessed differences in COVID-19 rejection and general vaccine hesitancy through logistic regressions. Among 713 participants, 33.0% were vaccine hesitant, and 18.4% would reject a COVID-19 vaccine. Acceptance varied by effectiveness profile: 10.2% would reject a 95% effective COVID-19 vaccine, but 32.4% would reject a 50% effective vaccine. Those vaccine hesitant were significantly more likely to reject COVID-19 vaccination [odds ratio (OR): 5.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.39, 9.11]. In multivariable logistic regression models, there were similar patterns for vaccine hesitancy and COVID-19 vaccine rejection by gender, race/ethnicity, family income, and political affiliation. But the direction of association flipped by urbanicity (P=0.0146, with rural dwellers less likely to be COVID-19 vaccine rejecters but more likely to be vaccine hesitant in general), and age (P=0.0037, with fewer pronounced differences across age for COVID-19 vaccine rejection, but a gradient of stronger vaccine hesitancy in general among younger ages). During the COVID-19 epidemic’s early phase, patterns of vaccine hesitancy and COVID-19 vaccine rejection were relatively similar. A significant minority would reject a COVID-19 vaccine, especially one with less-than-ideal effectiveness. Preparations for introducing the COVID-19 vaccine should anticipate substantial hesitation and target concerns, especially among younger adults.

scholarly journals Learning From the Experiences of COVID-19 Survivors: Web-Based Survey Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Temiloluwa Prioleau
Keyword(s):  
Support Groups ◽  
Recovery Time ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
The United States ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Course Of Illness ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

BACKGROUND There are still many unanswered questions about the novel coronavirus; however, a largely underutilized source of knowledge is the millions of people who have recovered after contracting the virus. This includes a majority of undocumented cases of COVID-19, which were classified as mild or moderate and received little to no clinical care during the course of illness. OBJECTIVE This study aims to document and glean insights from the experiences of individuals with a first-hand experience in dealing with COVID-19, especially the so-called mild-to-moderate cases that self-resolved while in isolation. METHODS This web-based survey study called C19 Insider Scoop recruited adult participants aged 18 years or older who reside in the United States and had tested positive for COVID-19 or antibodies. Participants were recruited through various methods, including online support groups for COVID-19 survivors, advertisement in local news outlets, as well as through professional and other networks. The main outcomes measured in this study included knowledge of contraction or transmission of the virus, symptoms, and personal experiences on the road to recovery. RESULTS A total of 72 participants (female, n=53; male, n=19; age range: 18-73 years; mean age: 41 [SD 14] years) from 22 US states were enrolled in this study. The top known source of how people contracted SARS-CoV-2, the virus known to cause COVID-19, was through a family or household member (26/72, 35%). This was followed by essential workers contracting the virus through the workplace (13/72, 18%). Participants reported up to 27 less-documented symptoms that they experienced during their illness, such as brain or memory fog, palpitations, ear pain or discomfort, and neurological problems. In addition, 47 of 72 (65%) participants reported that their symptoms lasted longer than the commonly cited 2-week period even for mild cases of COVID-19. The mean recovery time of the study participants was 4.5 weeks, and exactly one-half of participants (50%) still experienced lingering symptoms of COVID-19 after an average of 65 days following illness onset. Additionally, 37 (51%) participants reported that they experienced stigma associated with contracting COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS This study presents preliminary findings suggesting that emphasis on family or household spread of COVID-19 may be lacking and that there is a general underestimation of the recovery time even for mild cases of illness with the virus. Although a larger study is needed to validate these results, it is important to note that as more people experience COVID-19, insights from COVID-19 survivors can enable a more informed public, pave the way for others who may be affected by the virus, and guide further research.

scholarly journals Weather and Policy Influences on Mobility during the U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yihan Wu ◽  
Todd Mooring ◽  
Marianna Linz
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Favorable Weather ◽  
The U.S

Abstract As the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 continues to proliferate across the globe, it is a struggle to predict and prevent its spread. The successes of mobility interventions demonstrate how policies can help limit the person-to-person interactions that are essential to infection. With significant community spread, experts predict this virus will continue to be a threat until a safe and effective vaccine has been developed and widely deployed. We aim to understand mobility changes, measured via mobile device tracking, during the first major quarantine period in the United States by assessing how people changed their behavior in response to policies and to weather. Here we show that consistent national messaging was associated with consistent national behavioral change, regardless of local policy. Furthermore, while behavior changed with favorable weather conditions generally the changes did not increase encounters between people. The independence of encounters and temperatures suggests that behavioral changes will not impact any direct physical modulation of transmission by weather as the pandemic continues. Both of these results are encouraging for the potential of the country to be able to curb the virus with clear national messaging.

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