scholarly journals Repeat SARS-CoV-2 Testing Models for Residential College Populations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph T. Chang ◽  
Forrest W. Crawford ◽  
Edward H. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Block Transmission ◽  
Repeat Testing ◽  
Residential College ◽  
Test Sensitivity ◽  
Web App ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Early Late ◽  
Imported Infections

Residential colleges are considering re-opening under uncertain futures regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for the purpose of containing outbreaks in the residential campus community. The goal of repeat testing is to detect and isolate new infections rapidly to block transmission that would otherwise occur both on and off campus. The models allow for specification of aspects including scheduled on-campus resident screening at a given frequency, test sensitivity that can depend on the time since infection, imported infections from off campus throughout the school term, and a lag from testing until student isolation due to laboratory turnaround and student relocation delay. For early- (late-) transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by age of infection, we find that weekly screening cannot reliably contain outbreaks with reproductive numbers above 1.4 (1.6) if more than one imported exposure per 10,000 students occurs daily. Screening every three days can contain outbreaks providing the reproductive number remains below 1.75 (2.3) if transmission happens earlier (later) with time from infection, but at the cost of increased false positive rates requiring more isolation quarters for students testing positive. Testing frequently while minimizing the delay from testing until isolation for those found positive are the most controllable levers for preventing large residential college outbreaks. A web app that implements model calculations is available to facilitate exploration and consideration of a variety of scenarios.

scholarly journals Model calculations of posterior reliability indicators for the proposal of the maintenance system

2018 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 08003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Galliková ◽  
Vladimír Stuchlý ◽  
Roman Poprocký ◽  
Peter Volna
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Weibull Model ◽  
Calculation Methods ◽  
Optimal Process ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Maintenance System ◽  
Reliability Indicators ◽  
Technical Practice ◽  
Reliability Methods ◽  
The Cost

Designing the content and scale of maintenance of machines and equipment by a priori and posterior reliability methods in considered crucial to reducing the cost of the machine's life cycle, maintaining high operational readiness and reducing the consequences of failures. In the presented paper, attention is paid to the analysis of the calculation methods of posterior reliability for calculation indicators of reliability and to the use of the specified Weibull model for reliability calculations. The obtained results are further developed for models of optimal process calculations to perform scheduled maintenance interventions. Calculations of the other RAMS (reliability, availability, maintainability and safety) indicators that are critical to the design of an optimal engineering design with regard to maintenance and which do not receive sufficient attention in technical practice are also assessed.

scholarly journals ESTIMATED TRANSPORTATION COST OF LOW-TONNAGE LNG

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 130-163
Author(s):  
O. V. Tarovik ◽  
O. M. Mudrova
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Unit Cost ◽  
Transportation Cost ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Inland Waterways ◽  
Universal Approach ◽  
Environmental Requirements ◽  
Regression Relations ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Of Transportation

Demand for low-tonnage transportation of LNG requires improved logistics. Assessing the value of all parts of the supply chain is an important component of solving the problem of optimizing transportation costs for both consumers and LNG suppliers. In connection with tightening of environmental requirements regarding bunker fuel, the task of optimizing the supply of LNG for water transport by the cost of transportation becomes particularly relevant.The objective of the study is to develop a universal approach to estimating the cost of transporting low-tonnage LNG for bunkering vessels in the Russian Federation.The research methodology is focused on the analytical method based on a system-structural approach.As part of the departmental project of the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade «Development of  gaspowered fleet for navigation in coastal waters and inland waterways», the authors developed technical and economic models for calculating the unit cost of LNG transportation by road and water. To calculate the unit cost of LNG transportation by rail, the data of TMkarta information and reference system were used. Based on model calculations and data of TMkarta system, regression relations were obtained that allow one to determine the cost of transportation for various options of transport and technological schemes based on a limited set of parameters. An approach has also been proposed for estimating the cost of LNG transshipment. The regression ratios were tested for selected routes. As a result,conclusions were drawn about the most effective LNG transportation options.

scholarly journals Repeat Testing of Antibodies and Complements in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: When Is It Enough?

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 827-834 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas C. Raissi ◽  
Carly Hewson ◽  
Janet E. Pope
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Chart Review ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Complement C3 ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Abnormal Result ◽  
Repeat Testing ◽  
Nuclear Antigens ◽  
The Cost

Objective.Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) frequently undergo repeat testing for antibodies against extractable nuclear antigens (anti-ENA), but it is not known whether this is necessary or cost-effective. This study characterized the frequencies of changes in anti-ENA, anti–dsDNA, and complement C3 and C4 upon repeat testing.Methods.Chart review was done at one site of 130 patients with SLE enrolled in the 1000 Canadian Faces of Lupus prospective registry with annual antibody and complement testing. We determined the frequency of seroconversion (changes) on the next test and over the entire followup given 1 or multiple consistent results, and the cost to detect these changes.Results.Overall, 89.4% of patients had no changes in anti-ENA screening results from the first available test, 3.3% changed from negative to positive, and 7.3% from positive to negative. Following a single anti-ENA test, 3.9% of negative tests changed to positive and 4.2% of positive changed to negative on the next test. After multiple consistent tests, the frequencies of changes progressively declined. No changes from the first test were observed in anti-dsDNA, C3, and C4 in 60.8%, 83.3%, and 75.4% of patients, respectively. After 2 consistent anti-ENA tests, the cost to detect 1 change was above US$2000.Conclusion.Anti-ENA results change infrequently, especially following 1 or more negative tests. The high cost and lack of evidence that changes affect management suggest that repeating anti-ENA tests routinely is unnecessary. Anti-dsDNA and complements change more frequently after an abnormal result, but less after a normal value.

Use of ultrasonic models in the design and validation of new NDE techniques

1986 ◽  
Vol 320 (1554) ◽  
pp. 329-340 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Elastic Wave ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Experimental Demonstration ◽  
Structural Components ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Theoretical Scattering

In implementing fracture mechanics based techniques for the design and life extension of structural components, it is necessary to establish the reliability with which various flaw sizes and types can be detected and characterized. Traditionally, this has been accomplished through extensive experimental demonstration programmes. This paper discusses present efforts to use model predictions to reduce the required amount of experimentation, and hence the cost, of such programmes. Formalisms whereby the extensive elastic-wave theoretical scattering effort of the last decade can be applied to practical problems are first reviewed. This is followed by several specific examples which have occurred in the nuclear and aerospace industries. The paper concludes with the identification of some important remaining theoretical problems and a discussion of possible strategies for future implementation of model calculations as tools in structural integrity programmes.

scholarly journals Predicting cell health phenotypes using image-based morphology profiling

2021 ◽  
pp. mbc.E20-12-0784
Author(s):  
Gregory P. Way ◽  
Maria Kost-Alimova ◽  
Tsukasa Shibue ◽  
William F. Harrington ◽  
Stanley Gill ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Data ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Specific Cell ◽  
Oxygen Species ◽  
Multiple Indicators ◽  
Multiple Cell ◽  
Web App ◽  
Cellular Phenotypes ◽  
The Cost ◽  
And Personalized Medicine

Genetic and chemical perturbations impact diverse cellular phenotypes, including multiple indicators of cell health. These readouts reveal toxicity and antitumorigenic effects relevant to drug discovery and personalized medicine. We developed two customized microscopy assays, one using four targeted reagents and the other three targeted reagents, to collectively measure 70 specific cell health phenotypes including proliferation, apoptosis, reactive oxygen species (ROS), DNA damage, and cell cycle stage. We then tested an approach to predict multiple cell health phenotypes using Cell Painting, an inexpensive and scalable image-based morphology assay. In matched CRISPR perturbations of three cancer cell lines, we collected both Cell Painting and cell health data. We found that simple machine learning algorithms can predict many cell health readouts directly from Cell Painting images, at less than half the cost. We hypothesized that these models can be applied to accurately predict cell health assay outcomes for any future or existing Cell Painting dataset. For Cell Painting images from a set of 1,500+ compound perturbations across multiple doses, we validated predictions by orthogonal assay readouts. We provide a web app to browse predictions http://broad.io/cell-health-app . Our approach can be used to add cell health annotations to Cell Painting datasets.

Techniques of medical sciences

2012 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Clinical Use ◽  
Medical Sciences ◽  
Test Sensitivity ◽  
Clinical Investigations ◽  
Clinical Scenarios ◽  
Test Specificity ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
The Cost

There are a limited number of laboratory techniques that underlie the large number of clinical investigations that are used routinely. Knowing and understanding the basis for these tests is essential in appreciating the clinical application of the various tests. Important parameters of clinical diagnostic tests are test sensitivity—how well are those with a condition correctly identified by the test and how low is the rate of false positives; and test specificity—how well does the test correctly identify those without the condition and what is the rate of false negatives. The cost-effectiveness of a test is also an important consideration. Familiarity with the underlying mechanisms will also help students and doctors to determine when to use the tests, to realize their value and limitations, and hence to exercise caution in interpretation. This chapter has questions that test knowledge of the mechanisms underlying a variety of techniques. Their application in clinical use is tested using a number of clinical scenarios.

scholarly journals Information Technology Service Management System

2021 ◽  
pp. 20-28
Author(s):  
Abuzar Shaikh ◽  
Shivam Tiwari ◽  
Needa Shaikh ◽  
Dr. Zainab Pirani
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Management System ◽  
Service Management ◽  
It Projects ◽  
Technology Service ◽  
Project Documentation ◽  
It Department ◽  
Information Technology Service ◽  
Web App ◽  
The Cost

ITSM (Information Technology Service Management System) is a Cloud-Based Web App that is designed to handle the workflow of various IT projects that are undertaken in an organization. The workflow includes the commencement of the idea of the project from the Business Department to the Central Technical Surveillance Department, which monitors the entire workflow, and the IT Department which handles the development of the project. There are various stages from the Initialization of the project, Documentation, and Validation. The Validation stages are divides into various sub-stages where the idea is presented to each department for assessment and for providing a rough estimation of the cost that would be incurred while working on the project. The members of various Departments may hold meetings to discuss and to infer upon the changes or modifications that are necessary to incorporate in the project. The goal of Web App is to serve as a platform where the information can be stored, and shared centrally, to ensure a smooth workflow.

scholarly journals The impact of digital contact tracing on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic - a comprehensive modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tina R Pollmann ◽  
Julia Pollmann ◽  
Christoph Wiesinger ◽  
Christian Haack ◽  
Lolian Shtembari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Cell Phone ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Random Testing ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Testing Protocols

Contact tracing is one of several strategies employed in many countries to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Digital contact tracing (DCT) uses tools such as cell-phone applications to improve tracing speed and reach. We model the impact of DCT on the spread of the virus for a large epidemiological parameter space consistent with current literature on SARS-CoV-2. We also model DCT in combination with random testing (RT) and social distancing (SD). Modelling is done with two independently developed individual-based (stochastic) models that use the Monte Carlo technique, benchmarked against each other and against two types of deterministic models. For current best estimates of the number of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers (approximately 40\%), their contagiousness (similar to that of symptomatic carriers), the reproductive number before interventions (R0 at least 3) we find that DCT must be combined with other interventions such as SD and/or RT to push the reproductive number below one. At least 60\% of the population would have to use the DCT system for its effect to become significant. On its own, DCT cannot bring the reproductive number below 1 unless nearly the entire population uses the DCT system and follows quarantining and testing protocols strictly. For lower uptake of the DCT system, DCT still reduces the number of people that become infected. When DCT is deployed in a population with an ongoing outbreak where O(0.1\%) of the population have already been infected, the gains of the DCT intervention come at the cost of requiring up to 15% of the population to be quarantined (in response to being traced) on average each day for the duration of the epidemic, even when there is sufficient testing capability to test every traced person.

scholarly journals Changes in costs of precision nutrition depending on crop rotation

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Enikő Lencsés ◽  
Katalin Takácsné György
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Crop Rotation ◽  
Static Model ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Threshold Price ◽  
Conventional Technology ◽  
Fertilizer Material ◽  
The Cost

By applying precision nutrition the yield heterogeneity owing to the different features of soil spots can be taken into consideration. The planned and sprayed fertilizer adjusted to the expected yield rendered to soil spots can reduce the negative effects of artificial chemicals on soil and environment. The aim of this paper is to examine how the quantity and the cost of fertilizer (material and operational) will change on spot level on a certain plot during a five-year period, considering crop rotation, too. The following crops are in the rotation: winter wheat, corn and sunflower. Precision nutrition can be used in all the cultures mentioned above. Our earlier (static) model calculations have revealed that the threshold price of precision production was lower by 31% than in conventional technology. So it is necessary to explore for a longer period how the profitability of precision nutrition reacts to the changes in input and yield prices in different crops. The risk receptivity of precision nutrition can be characterized with the help of price sensitive analyses. Effects on profitability of other technological elements are not analysed in this paper.

scholarly journals The approach to modeling the value of statistical life using average per capita income

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Stanislav Levytskyi ◽  
Oleksandr Gneushev ◽  
Vasyl Makhlinets
Keyword(s):  
Capita Income ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Cost

The problem of determining the value of statistical life in Ukraine in order to find ways to improve it is an urgent one now. The current level of value is analyzed, which is a direct consequence of the poor quality of life of a citizen, hence his low level. The description of the basic theoretical and methodological approaches to the estimation of the cost of human life is given. Based on the analysis, a number of hypotheses have been advanced about the use of statistical calculations to achieve the modeling objectives. Model calculations are based on the example of Zaporozhye Oblast statistics for 2018–2019. The article elaborates the approach to the estimation of the economic equivalent of the cost of living on the basis of demographic indicators and average per capita income, and also analyzes the possibilities of their application in the realities of the national economy. Using Statistica, the regression equation parameters were determined for statistical data of population distribution of Zaporizhzhia region by age groups for 2018. The calculation parameters were also found using the Excel office application, using the Solution Finder option to justify the quantitative range of metric values. It is proved that the proposed approach to modeling and calculations are simpler and more efficient than the calculation methods proposed earlier. The study concluded that the value of statistical life in Ukraine is significantly undervalued.

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