scholarly journals A Bayesian approach for estimating typhoid fever incidence from large-scale facility-based passive surveillance data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maile T. Phillips ◽  
James E. Meiring ◽  
Merryn Voysey ◽  
Joshua L. Warren ◽  
Stephen Baker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Culture ◽  
Typhoid Fever ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Passive Surveillance ◽  
Sample Collection ◽  
True Incidence ◽  
And Control ◽  
Adjusted Incidence

AbstractBackgroundDecisions about typhoid fever prevention and control are based on current estimates of typhoid incidence and their uncertainty, which can be difficult to measure. Limits of using facility-based estimates alone—the lack of specific clinical diagnostic criteria, poorly sensitive and specific diagnostic tests, and scarcity of accurate and complete datasets—contribute to difficulties in calculating population-level incidence of typhoid.MethodsUsing data from the Strategic Alliance across Africa & Asia (STRATAA) programme, we integrated information from demographic censuses, healthcare utilization surveys, facility-based passive surveillance, and serological surveillance from sites in Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh in order to adjust crude incidence estimates to account for under-detection. We developed an approach using a Bayesian framework that adjusts the count of reported blood-culture-positive cases of typhoid for each of the following phases: healthcare seeking, blood culture collection, and blood culture detection. We estimated the proportion of “true” typhoid cases occurring in the population under surveillance captured at each phase by combining information from the observed cases from the STRATAA datasets and estimates from prior published studies. We confirmed that the model was correctly formulated by comparing to simulated data.ResultsThe ratio between the observed and adjusted incidence rates was 8.2 (95% CI: 6.4-13.3) in Malawi, 13.8 (95% CI: 8.8-23.0) in Nepal, and 7.0 (95% CI: 5.5-9.1) in Bangladesh, and varied by age across the three sites. The probability of having blood drawn for culture led to the largest adjustment in Malawi, while the probability of seeking healthcare contributed the most to adjustment factors in Nepal and Bangladesh. Adjusted incidence rates were mostly within the limits of the seroincidence rate of typhoid infection determined by serological data.ConclusionPassive surveillance of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever without adjustment for case ascertainment, sample collection and diagnostic sensitivity results in considerable underestimation of the true incidence of typhoid in the population. Our approach allows each phase of the typhoid reporting process to be synthesized to estimate the adjusted incidence of typhoid fever while correctly characterizing uncertainty in this estimate, which can inform decision-making for typhoid prevention and control.

scholarly journals Multi-Objective Optimization of Integrated Civilian-Military Scheduling of Medical Supplies for Epidemic Prevention and Control

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Hai-Feng Ling ◽  
Zheng-Lian Su ◽  
Xun-Lin Jiang ◽  
Yu-Jun Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Medical Services ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Problem Instances ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Minimum Ratio

In a large-scale epidemic, such as the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), there is huge demand for a variety of medical supplies, such as medical masks, ventilators, and sickbeds. Resources from civilian medical services are often not sufficient for fully satisfying all of these demands. Resources from military medical services, which are normally reserved for military use, can be an effective supplement to these demands. In this paper, we formulate a problem of integrated civilian-military scheduling of medical supplies for epidemic prevention and control, the aim of which is to simultaneously maximize the overall satisfaction rate of the medical supplies and minimize the total scheduling cost, while keeping a minimum ratio of medical supplies reservation for military use. We propose a multi-objective water wave optimization (WWO) algorithm in order to efficiently solve this problem. Computational results on a set of problem instances constructed based on real COVID-19 data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Cheng ◽  
Zeyi Liu ◽  
Guangquan Cheng ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractBeginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures. The number of newly confirmed cases in 25 of China’s most-affected cities for the COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. The results showed that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend overall, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities, indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities was effective, and the risk of infection decreased because their R had dropped below 1 by February 10, 2020. In contrast, the cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi still had difficulty effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was greater than 1.

Influence of medical epidemic prevention and control on the development of sports events based on FPGA system and machine learning

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Wu Jing
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Normal Development ◽  
Basic Knowledge ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Relevant Model ◽  
Sports Events ◽  
Specific Scheme ◽  
And Control

In year 2020, a large-scale outbreak of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus has affected the development of many industries and enterprises in China. Under the strong leadership of the Chinese government, the development of the epidemic situation in China has been well controlled. The development of various industries also began to show a good situation, many large-scale sports competitions also need to be restored. In order to ensure the normal development of large-scale sports events, we need to consider the development of epidemic situation to determine the time of sports events. Based on the study of FPGA theory, this paper designs a specific scheme of programming and system debugging, which includes a variety of program operations. In order to better predict the situation of the epidemic situation, this paper also uses the basic knowledge of machine learning to establish a relevant model to evaluate the situation of large-scale sports events under the development of the epidemic situation, and provide feasible suggestions for the recovery of large-scale sports events under the epidemic situation.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Effectiveness in Ghana (TyVEGHA) Using a Cluster-Randomized Controlled Phase IV Trial: Trial Design and Population Baseline Characteristics

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 281
Author(s):  
Andrea Haekyung Haselbeck ◽  
Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse ◽  
Juyeon Park ◽  
Malick M. Gibani ◽  
Ligia María Cruz Espinoza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Blood Culture ◽  
Typhoid Fever ◽  
Conjugate Vaccine ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Health Programs ◽  
Public Health Programs ◽  
High Burden ◽  
Pan African ◽  
Cluster Randomized

Typhoid fever remains a significant health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, with incidence rates of >100 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation. Despite the prequalification of safe and effective typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV), some uncertainties remain around future demand. Real-life effectiveness data, which inform public health programs on the impact of TCVs in reducing typhoid-related mortality and morbidity, from an African setting may help encourage the introduction of TCVs in high-burden settings. Here, we describe a cluster-randomized trial to investigate population-level protection of TYPBAR-TCV®, a Vi-polysaccharide conjugated to a tetanus-toxoid protein carrier (Vi-TT) against blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever, and the synthesis of health economic evidence to inform policy decisions. A total of 80 geographically distinct clusters are delineated within the Agogo district of the Asante Akim region in Ghana. Clusters are randomized to the intervention arm receiving Vi-TT or a control arm receiving the meningococcal A conjugate vaccine. The primary study endpoint is the total protection of Vi-TT against blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever. Total, direct, and indirect protection are measured as secondary outcomes. Blood-culture-based enhanced surveillance enables the estimation of incidence rates in the intervention and control clusters. Evaluation of the real-world impact of TCVs and evidence synthesis improve the uptake of prequalified/licensed safe and effective typhoid vaccines in public health programs of high burden settings. This trial is registered at the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry, accessible at Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (ID: PACTR202011804563392).

Recent epidemiological trends in extrapulmonary TB in Galicia, Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 373-381
Author(s):  
L. Ferreiro ◽  
A. Ruano-Raviña ◽  
R. Otero-Mallo ◽  
C. Pou-Álvarez ◽  
V. Riveiro-Blanco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Epidemiological Trends ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiological trends and characteristics of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) in Galicia, Spain, from 2000 to 2019.METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study based on data from the Galician TB information system.RESULTS: Of the total number of TB cases (n = 15,871), 5,428 (34.2%) had EPTB. The absolute number of cases and incidence of EPTB decreased dramatically (from 480 cases and 17.8 cases/100,000 in 2000, to 172 and 6.4 cases/100,000 in 2019, respectively), with a mean annual decrease of respectively 64% and 4.7% for absolute cases and incidence rates. The risk for EPTB was higher in men than in women (RR 3.86, 95% CI 3.66–4.07). The most frequent age group was 15–44 years (2,234 patients, 41.2%); overall reductions per age group were 82% (0–14 years), 75% (15–44 years), 44% (45–64 years) and 63% (≥65 years), with statistically significant differences. The most frequently locations were the pleura (1,916 cases; 35.3%) and the lymph nodes (1,504; 27.7%).CONCLUSION: The incidence of EPTB in Galicia has decreased significantly in the last 20 years. The epidemiological characteristics have not changed, except for the number of patients with risk factors. This improvement of EPTB epidemiological trends coincides with the implementation of the programme for the prevention and control of TB, which suggests that it has been very effective in the control of the EPTB.

scholarly journals Empirical Research on the Application of Online Teaching in Chinese Colleges and Universities Under the Situation of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Prevention and Control

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiejun Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Online Education ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Online Teaching ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Colleges And Universities ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Teachers And Students ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

At the turn of 2019-2020, a new epidemic broke out in China. China has entered the critical stage of epidemic prevention and control. And The severe situation has led to the failure of normal opening of new semester in Chinese colleges and universities. In order to effectively guarantee the education, teaching and talent cultivation in colleges and universities, the Ministry of education of China has rapidly put forward the requirements of launching online teaching. Therefore, under the situation of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (Hereinafter referred to as 2019-nCoV) prevention and control, online teaching in Chinese colleges and universities is widely used and develops rapidly. However, the demand for online education has been released in a short time and on a large scale, and each online teaching platform has encountered unprecedented pressure and challenges. In this regard, based on the situation of 2019-nCoV prevention and control in China, this paper demonstrates how the Chinese government deploy online teaching in an all-round way with specific measures, how the Chinese colleges and universities implement massive online teaching quickly, how teachers and students adapt to online teaching quickly. At the same time, this paper carries out empirical analysis to show the process and effectiveness of online teaching in Chinese colleges and universities in the unprecedented state of 2019-nCoV prevention and control with specific examples. On this basis, it analyzes and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages, so as to facilitate the later improvement and provide reference.

scholarly journals Cyanobacteria bloom prevention and control and salvage disposal integrated management system

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 04033
Author(s):  
Yuming Tang ◽  
Hong Liang ◽  
Yi Zhao ◽  
Bingfeng Seng
Keyword(s):  
Management System ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Integrated Management ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Lake Management ◽  
Data Management System ◽  
Water Bloom ◽  
Cyanobacteria Blooms ◽  
And Control

Cyanobacteria are large single-cell prokaryotes that can undergo oxygen-producing photosynthesis. However, if the cyanobacteria are contaminated by nitrogen, phosphorus and other elements, cyanobacteria will cause the phenomenon of “water bloom” in the lake, which will seriously endanger the safety of humans, animals, fish and shrimps. To help lake management units to prevent and control the outbreak of cyanobacteria, this paper designed and developed a comprehensive management system for the prevention and control of cyanobacteria blooms and salvage treatment. The system consists of four subsystems: the operational reporting subsystem, the monitoring data management system, the algae environmental protection disposal process management system, and the real-time cyanobacteria monitoring system. The three-dimensional interaction between the WEB end and the mobile patrol handheld terminal makes the system more efficient and convenient. The neighborhood image is denoised by the neighborhood averaging method, and the K-means algorithm is used for clustering training, which makes the classification of the algae pictures taken. The realization of the system effectively prevented the large-scale outbreak of cyanobacteria, providing a new idea for monitoring and processing cyanobacteria blooms.

scholarly journals A Descriptive Review of Selected Nonviral Enteric Illnesses Reported in Children in Quebec between 1999 and 2006

2010 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. e92-e98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henri Kaboré ◽  
Pascal Michel ◽  
Patrick Levallois ◽  
Pierre Déry ◽  
Pierre Payment ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Common Causes ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
One Year ◽  
And Control ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Geographical Characteristics

OBJECTIVE: To review the epidemiology of selected nonviral enteric illnesses reported in children in Quebec between 1999 and 2006.METHODS: Incidence rates were calculated to describe age, sex, temporal and geographical characteristics of the selected nonviral enteric cases reported in children who were between zero and four years of age. Standard descriptive methods were used to analyze the temporal and geographical distributions of the incidence rates.RESULTS: A total of 5068 cases were reported. Of these, three pathogens accounted for the majority of the infections:Giardia(32.52%),Salmonella(30.98%) andCampylobacter(30.82%).Salmonellawas most frequent in children younger than one year of age, whereas comparable incidence rates for the three pathogens were calculated for children between one and four years of age. ForGiardia, the geographical distributions showed that the highest rates were in areas with more than 100,000 inhabitants (except Montreal, Quebec); forSalmonella, the highest rates were in Montreal; and forCampylobacter,the highest rates were in areas with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. No detectable trends were seen over the study period for the three pathogens. Seasonal summer peaks were noted forSalmonellaandCampylobacter, contrasting with late summer to early autumn peaks forGiardia.CONCLUSION: Findings suggest thatGiardia,SalmonellaandCampylobacterwere the most common causes of nonviral enteric illnesses reported in children in Quebec.Giardiacases seemed to arise from different sources and transmission routes than the other two pathogens. Characteristics specific toCampylobacterinfections in children, namely its predominance in areas with low population densities, and toSalmonellainfections, namely predominance in the Greater Montreal area, should be further investigated to better guide prevention and control measures.

scholarly journals Non-melanoma skin cancer in Serbia (1999-2015) -the need for national prevention and control strategy

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (11) ◽  
pp. 1154-1160
Author(s):  
Danijela Ilic ◽  
Goran Videnovic ◽  
Ruzica Kozomara ◽  
Sonja Radakovic ◽  
Zoran Vlahovic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Preventive Strategy ◽  
Non Melanoma Skin Cancer ◽  
National Prevention ◽  
And Control ◽  
Melanoma Skin

Background/Aim. Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) are ones of the most rapidly increasing cancers worldwide. Although NMSCs have a relatively low mortality rate, they are an important public health concern and the most costly cancers in many countries. The two main objectives in this study were: first, to analyze the trend of age-standardized incidence rate of NMSCs in Serbia and second, to assess the need for national prevention and control strategy based on analyzed trend. Methods. From the Serbian Cancer Registry, we extracted all cases of NMSCs registered in central Serbia from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2015. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to define trends and annual percentage change (APC). Results. NMSCs significantly increased for both genders with APC of +2.32% (p < 0.001). Significantly increasing trend of incidence rates was higher in women (APC, +2.63%; p < 0.0001) than in men (APC, +2.01%; p < 0.001). Conclusion. Our results show a continuously increasing incidence rate of NMCS in Serbia. Without the national preventive strategy, current sporadic activities are highly unlikely to result in reducing the growing trends

scholarly journals Viral Metagenome-Based Precision Surveillance of Pig Population at Large Scale Reveals Viromic Signatures of Sample Types and Influence of Farming Management on Pig Virome

mSystems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao He ◽  
Wenjie Gong ◽  
Xiaomin Yan ◽  
Zihan Zhao ◽  
Ling’en Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Prevention ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weaned Pigs ◽  
Disease Occurrence ◽  
And Control

Pigs are deeply involved in human lives; hence, their viruses are associated with public health. Here, we established the most comprehensive virome of healthy piglets to date, which provides a viromic baseline of weaned pigs for disease prevention and control, highlighting that longitudinal viromic monitoring is needed to better understand the dynamics of the virome in pig development and disease occurrence.

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