scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Qatar and its impact on the national response to COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houssein H. Ayoub ◽  
Hiam Chemaitelly ◽  
Shaheen Seedat ◽  
Monia Makhoul ◽  
Zaina Al Kanaani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Healthcare Needs ◽  
National Response ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractBackgroundMathematical modeling constitutes an important tool for planning robust responses to epidemics. This study was conducted to guide the Qatari national response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. The study investigated the time course of the epidemic, forecasted healthcare needs, predicted the impact of social and physical distancing restrictions, and rationalized and justified easing of restrictions.MethodsAn age-structured deterministic model was constructed to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and disease progression throughout the population.ResultsThe enforced social and physical distancing interventions flattened the epidemic curve, reducing the peaks for incidence, prevalence, acute-care hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations by 87%, 86%, 76%, and 78%, respectively. The daily number of new infections was predicted to peak at 12,750 on May 23, and active-infection prevalence was predicted to peak at 3.2% on May 25. Daily acute-care and ICU-care hospital admissions and occupancy were forecast accurately and precisely. By October 15, 2020, the basic reproduction number R0 had varied between 1.07-2.78, and 50.8% of the population were estimated to have been infected (1.43 million infections). The proportion of actual infections diagnosed was estimated at 11.6%. Applying the concept of Rt tuning, gradual easing of restrictions was rationalized and justified to start on June 15, 2020, when Rt declined to 0.7, to buffer the increased interpersonal contact with easing of restrictions and to minimize the risk of a second wave. No second wave has materialized as of October 15, 2020, five months after the epidemic peak.ConclusionsUse of modeling and forecasting to guide the national response proved to be a successful strategy, reducing the toll of the epidemic to a manageable level for the healthcare system.

scholarly journals Impact of Diagnosed and Undiagnosed Respiratory Pseudomonas on VAP and VAE During Long-Term Acute Care

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s258-s259
Author(s):  
James Harrigan ◽  
Ebbing Lautenbach ◽  
Emily Reesey ◽  
Magda Wernovsky ◽  
Pam Tolomeo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bacterial Community ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Rrna Gene ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
16S Sequencing ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Background: Clinically diagnosed ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is common in the long-term acute-care hospital (LTACH) setting and may contribute to adverse ventilator-associated events (VAEs). Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a common causative organism of VAP. We evaluated the impact of respiratory P. aeruginosa colonization and bacterial community dominance, both diagnosed and undiagnosed, on subsequent P. aeruginosa VAP and VAE events during long-term acute care. Methods: We enrolled 83 patients on LTACH admission for ventilator weaning, performed longitudinal sampling of endotracheal aspirates followed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing (Illumina HiSeq), and bacterial community profiling (QIIME2). Statistical analysis was performed with R and Stan; mixed-effects models were fit to relate the abundance of respiratory Psa on admission to clinically diagnosed VAP and VAE events. Results: Of the 83 patients included, 12 were diagnosed with P. aeruginosa pneumonia during the 14 days prior to LTACH admission (known P. aeruginosa), and 22 additional patients received anti–P. aeruginosa antibiotics within 48 hours of admission (suspected P. aeruginosa); 49 patients had no known or suspected P. aeruginosa (unknown P. aeruginosa). Among the known P. aeruginosa group, all 12 patients had P. aeruginosa detectable by 16S sequencing, with elevated admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance (median, 0.97; IQR, 0.33–1). Among the suspected P. aeruginosa group, all 22 patients had P. aeruginosa detectable by 16S sequencing, with a wide range of admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance (median, 0.0088; IQR, 0.00012–0.31). Of the 49 patients in the unknown group, 47 also had detectable respiratory Psa, and many had high P. aeruginosa proportional abundance at admission (median, 0.014; IQR, 0.00025–0.52). Incident P. aeruginosa VAP was observed within 30 days in 4 of the known P. aeruginosa patients (33.3%), 5 of the suspected P. aeruginosa patients (22.7%), and 8 of the unknown P. aeruginosa patients (16.3%). VAE was observed within 30 days in 1 of the known P. aeruginosa patients (8.3%), 2 of the suspected P. aeruginosa patients (9.1%), and 1 of the unknown P. aeruginosa patients (2%). Admission P. aeruginosa abundance was positively associated with VAP and VAE risk in all groups, but the association only achieved statistical significance in the unknown group (type S error <0.002 for 30-day VAP and <0.011 for 30-day VAE). Conclusions: We identified a high prevalence of unrecognized respiratory P. aeruginosa colonization among patients admitted to LTACH for weaning from mechanical ventilation. The admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance was strongly associated with increased risk of incident P. aeruginosa VAP among these patients.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

Cognitive Impairment and Length of Stay in Acute Care Hospitals: A Scoping Review of the Literature

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Jonathan Plante ◽  
Karine Latulippe ◽  
Edeltraut Kröger ◽  
Dominique Giroux ◽  
Martine Marcotte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Older persons experiencing a longer length of stay (LOS) or delayed discharge (DD) may see a decline in their health and well-being, generating significant costs. This review aimed to identify evidence on the impact of cognitive impairment (CI) on acute care hospital LOS/DD. A scoping review of studies examining the association between CI and LOS/DD was performed. We searched six databases; two reviewers independently screened references until November 2019. A narrative synthesis was used to answer the research question; 58 studies were included of which 33 found a positive association between CI and LOS or DD, 8 studies had mixed results, 3 found an inverse relationship, and 14 showed an indirect link between CI-related syndromes and LOS/DD. Thus, cognitive impairment seemed to be frequently associated with increased LOS/DD. Future research should consider CI together with other risks for LOS/DD and also focus on explaining the association between the two.

A RANDOMIZED TRIAL TO MEASURE THE OPTIMAL ROLE OF THE PHARMACIST IN PROMOTING EVIDENCE-BASED ANTIBIOTIC USE IN ACUTE CARE HOSPITALS

2001 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Dranitsaris ◽  
Diana Spizzirri ◽  
Monique Pitre ◽  
Allison McGeer
Keyword(s):  
Acute Care ◽  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Intervention Group ◽  
Hospital Setting ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Broad Spectrum Antibiotics ◽  
The Impact

Background: There is a considerable gap between randomized clinical trials and implementing the results into practice. This is particularly relevant in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics in hospitals. Hospital pharmacists can be effective vehicles for bridging this gap and promoting evidence-based medicine. To determine the most effective way of using the pharmacist in this role, a prospective cefotaxime intervention study was conducted with randomization incorporated into the design as well as patient-related therapeutic outcomes.Methods: A total of 323 patients who were prescribed cefotaxime were randomized into an intervention or nonintervention group where only the former was challenged by pharmacists for inappropriate cefotaxime usage relative to hospital guidelines. The primary outcome was the appropriateness of cefotaxime prescribing between groups. Logistic regression analysis was then used to identify factors that were associated with successful clinical response.Results: Overall, 94% of orders in the intervention group met cefotaxime dosage criteria compared with 86% in the control group (p = .018). However, there was no impact with respect to promoting cefotaxime use for an appropriate indication (81% vs. 80%; p = .67). There was a trend for improved clinical outcomes in patients who received cefotaxime within hospital guidelines (OR = 1.73; p = .31).Conclusions: The pharmacist as a vehicle for promoting the appropriate use of broad-spectrum antibiotics in the acute care hospital setting can improve the dosing of such agents. However, several barriers to optimizing the impact of the pharmacist were implied by the data. Removing these barriers could increase the pharmacists' utility as an agent for improved patient care.

scholarly journals The Integration of Adult Acute Care Surgeons into Pediatric Surgical Care Models Supplements the Workforce without Compromising Quality of Care

2015 ◽  
Vol 81 (9) ◽  
pp. 854-858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudy J. Judhan ◽  
Raquel Silhy ◽  
Kristen Statler ◽  
Mija Khan ◽  
Benjamin Dyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Disease Process ◽  
Pediatric Care ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Late Night ◽  
General Surgeons ◽  
The Impact

Acute care of children remains a challenge due to a shortage of pediatric surgeons, particularly in rural areas. In our institutional norm, all cases in patients age six and older are managed by dedicated general surgeons. The provision of care to these children by these surgeons alleviates the impact of such shortages. We conducted a five-year retrospective analysis of all acute care pediatric surgical cases performed in patients aged 6 to 17 years by a dedicated group of adult general surgeons in a rural tertiary care hospital. Demographics, procedure, complications, outcomes, length of stay, and time of consultation/operation were obtained via chart review. Elective, trauma related, or procedures performed by a pediatric surgeon were excluded. Descriptive statistics are reported. A total of 397 cases were performed by six dedicated general surgeons during the study period. Mean age was 11.5 ± 3.1 years. In all, 100 (25.2%) were transferred from outlying facilities and 52.6 per cent of consultations/operations occurred at night (7P–7A), of which 33.2 per cent occurred during late night hours (11P–7A). On weekends, 34.0 per cent occurred. Appendectomy was the most commonly performed operation (n = 357,89.9%), of which 311 were laparoscopic (87.1%). Others included incision/drainage (4.5%), laparoscopic cholecystectomy (2.0%), bowel resection (1.5%), incarcerated hernia (0.5%), small bowel obstruction (0.5%), intraabdominal abscess drainage (0.3%), resection of intussusception (0.3%), Graham patch (0.3%), and resection omental torsion (0.3%). Median length of stay was two days. Complications occurred in 23 patients (5.8%), of which 22(5.5%) were the result of the disease process. These results parallel those published by pediatric surgeons in this age group and for the diagnoses treated. Models integrating dedicated general surgeons into pediatric call rotations can be designed such that quality of pediatric care is maintained while providing relief to an overburdened pediatric surgical workforce.

scholarly journals 566. Reduction of Hospital-Onset Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Bacteremia in an Acute Care Hospital: Impact of Bundles and Universal Decolonization

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S268-S268
Author(s):  
Adriana Jimenez ◽  
Kathleen Sposato ◽  
Alicia de Leon-Sanchez ◽  
Regina Williams ◽  
Reynande Francois ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Care Facility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Adult Patients ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Icu Patients ◽  
Improvement Project ◽  
Contact Precautions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background MRSA is a major concern for hospitalized patients in the United States. Hospital-Onset (HO) MRSA bacteremia is used as a proxy measurement of MRSA healthcare acquisition, exposure, and infection burden. HO MRSA bacteremia standardized infection ratio (SIR) is used by several national agencies as a quality report metric. Our institution had more than expected HO MRSA bacteremia cases despite several interventions. We describe the impact of a bundle of interventions aimed to decrease HO MRSA bacteremia in an acute care facility. Methods This quality improvement project was implemented in a 380-bed community hospital in Miami, FL from January 2015 to March 2019. HO MRSA bacteremia was defined as non-duplicate MRSA isolated from a blood culture collected >3 days after admission. SIR was calculated dividing the number of observed events by the number of predicted events; predicted events were obtained from the NHSN report. During baseline period (Figure1 Phase 1 January 2015–August 2016) all adult patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) were screened for MRSA nasal colonization on admission and weekly thereafter, ICU patients received daily Chlorhexidine (CHG) bathing, and colonized/infected patients with MRSA were placed in contact precautions. In Phase 2 (September 2016–June 2017)daily CHG bathing was switched from 2% wipes to 4% soap foam and expanded to all adult patients; ICU patients also received nasal decolonization with mupirocin. Nasal mupirocin in ICU was replaced with alcohol-based nasal sanitizer for all adult units in July 2017 (Phase 3). In April 2017 we discontinued using contact precautions for MRSA patients; nasal surveillance cultures were discontinued in October 2017. In May 2018 (Phase 4) we introduced alcohol-based wipes for patient hand hygiene at the bedside. SIR were compared by exact binomial test. Results We observed 48 HO MRSA bacteremia cases during the study period. The SIR decreased from 3.66 to 0.97 from baseline to postintervention periods (P = 0.003). The largest decrease in cases and SIR was attained using combined hospital-wide daily CHG bathing, alcohol-based nasal sanitizer, and alcohol wipes for patient hand hygiene during Phase 4 (Table 1). Conclusion Our bundle of interventions for universal decolonization was successful in decreasing HO MRSA bacteremia. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Cohorting KPC+ Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC-Kp)–positive patients: A genomic exposé of cross-colonization hazards in a long-term acute-care hospital (LTACH)

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1162-1168
Author(s):  
Shawn E. Hawken ◽  
Mary K. Hayden ◽  
Karen Lolans ◽  
Rachel D. Yelin ◽  
Robert A. Weinstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Resistance ◽  
Klebsiella Pneumoniae ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Resistance Genes ◽  
Acute Care Hospital ◽  
Antibiotic Resistance Genes ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Cross Transmission ◽  
The Impact

AbstractObjective:Cohorting patients who are colonized or infected with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) protects uncolonized patients from acquiring MDROs in healthcare settings. The potential for cross transmission within the cohort and the possibility of colonized patients acquiring secondary isolates with additional antibiotic resistance traits is often neglected. We searched for evidence of cross transmission of KPC+ Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC-Kp) colonization among cohorted patients in a long-term acute-care hospital (LTACH), and we evaluated the impact of secondary acquisitions on resistance potential.Design:Genomic epidemiological investigation.Setting:A high-prevalence LTACH during a bundled intervention that included cohorting KPC-Kp–positive patients.Methods:Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and location data were analyzed to identify potential cases of cross transmission between cohorted patients.Results:Secondary KPC-Kp isolates from 19 of 28 admission-positive patients were more closely related to another patient’s isolate than to their own admission isolate. Of these 19 cases, 14 showed strong genomic evidence for cross transmission (<10 single nucleotide variants or SNVs), and most of these patients occupied shared cohort floors (12 patients) or rooms (4 patients) at the same time. Of the 14 patients with strong genomic evidence of acquisition, 12 acquired antibiotic resistance genes not found in their primary isolates.Conclusions:Acquisition of secondary KPC-Kp isolates carrying distinct antibiotic resistance genes was detected in nearly half of cohorted patients. These results highlight the importance of healthcare provider adherence to infection prevention protocols within cohort locations, and they indicate the need for future studies to assess whether multiple-strain acquisition increases risk of adverse patient outcomes.

Risk Factors for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Acquisition in Roommate Contacts of Patients Colonized or Infected With MRSA in an Acute-Care Hospital

2008 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 600-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moore ◽  
Jastej Dhaliwal ◽  
Agnes Tong ◽  
Sarah Eden ◽  
Cindi Wigston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Staphylococcus Aureus ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Acute Care Hospital ◽  
Skin Lesions ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Methicillin Resistant ◽  
The Impact

Objective.To identify risk factors for acquisition of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in patients exposed to an MRSA-colonized roommate.Design.Retrospective cohort study.Setting.A 472-bed acute-care teaching hospital in Toronto, Canada.Patients.Inpatients who shared a room between 1996 and 2004 with a patient who had unrecognized MRSA colonization.Methods.Exposed roommates were identified from infection-control logs and from results of screening for MRSA in the microbiology database. Completed follow-up was defined as completion of at least 2 sets of screening cultures (swab samples from the nares, the rectum, and skin lesions), with at least 1 set of samples obtained 7–10 days after the last exposure. Chart reviews were performed to compare those who did and did not become colonized with MRSA.Results.Of 326 roommates, 198 (61.7%) had completed follow-up, and 25 (12.6%) acquired MRSA by day 7–10 after exposure was recognized, all with strains indistinguishable by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis from those of their roommate. Two (2%) of 101 patients were not colonized at day 7–10 but, with subsequent testing, were identified as being colonized with the same strain as their roommate (one at day 16 and one at day 18 after exposure). A history of alcohol abuse (odds ratio [OR], 9.8 [95% confidence limits {CLs}, 1.8, 53]), exposure to a patient with nosocomially acquired MRSA (OR, 20 [95% CLs, 2.4,171]), increasing care dependency (OR per activity of daily living, 1.7 [95% CLs, 1.1, 2.7]), and having received levofloxacin (OR, 3.6 [95% CLs, 1.1,12]) were associated with MRSA acquisition.Conclusions.Roommates of patients with MRSA are at significant risk for becoming colonized. Further study is needed of the impact of hospital antimicrobial formulary decisions on the risk of acquisition of MRSA.

scholarly journals 2440. Using a geospatially explicit agent-based model of a regional healthcare network to assess varied antibiotic risk on Clostridioides difficile infection incidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S843-S844
Author(s):  
Sarah Rhea ◽  
Kasey Jones ◽  
Georgiy Bobashev ◽  
Breda Munoz ◽  
James Rineer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Care ◽  
Acute Care Hospital ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Healthcare Network ◽  
Clostridioides Difficile ◽  
Unit Increase ◽  
Clostridioides Difficile Infection ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Different antibiotic classes are associated with different Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) risk. The impact of varied antibiotic risk on CDI incidence can be explored using agent-based models (ABMs). ABMs can simulate complete systems (e.g., regional healthcare networks) comprised of discrete, unique agents (e.g., patients) which can be represented using a synthetic population, or model-generated representation of the population. We used an ABM of a North Carolina (NC) regional healthcare network to assess the impact of increasing antibiotic risk ratios (RRs) across network locations on healthcare-associated (HA) and community-associated (CA) CDI incidence. Methods The ABM describes CDI acquisition and patient movement across 14 network locations (i.e., nodes) (11 short-term acute care hospitals, 1 long-term acute care hospital, 1 nursing home, and the community). We used a sample of 2 million synthetic NC residents as ABM microdata. We updated agent states (i.e., location, antibiotic exposure, C. difficile colonization, CDI status) daily. We applied antibiotic RRs of 1, 5, 8.9 (original model RR), 15, and 20 to agents across the network to simulate varied risk corresponding to different antibiotic classes. We determined network HA-CDI and CA-CDI incidence and percent mean change for each RR. Results In this simulation study, HA-CDI incidence increased with increasing antibiotic risk, ranging from 11.3 to 81.4 HA-CDI cases/100,000 person-years for antibiotic RRs of 1 to 20, respectively. On average, the per unit increase in antibiotic RR was 33% for HA-CDI and 6% for CA-CDI (figure). Conclusion We used a geospatially explicit ABM to simulate increasing antibiotic risk, corresponding to different antibiotic classes, and to explore the impact on CDI incidence. The per unit increase in antibiotic risk was greater for HA-CDI than CA-CDI due to the higher probability of receiving antibiotics and higher concentration of agents with other CDI risk factors in the healthcare facilities of the ABM. These types of analyses, which demonstrate the interconnectedness of network healthcare facilities and the associated community served by the network, might help inform targeted antibiotic stewardship efforts in certain network locations. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

The impact of the Tsunami on hospitalzations at the tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Truls Østbye, MD, PhD ◽  
Thyagi Ponnamperuma, MBBS ◽  
Nayana Fernando, MBBS, MSc ◽  
Vathsala Abeygunawardena, MSc ◽  
W.A.A. Wijayasiri, MBBS, MSc ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Tertiary Care Hospital ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
International Classification Of Diseases ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Disease Patterns ◽  
Disaster Relief Operations ◽  
Classification Of Diseases ◽  
Relief Operations ◽  
The Impact

Objective: Sri Lanka’s human, physical, social, and economic resources suffered a massive impact after the tsunami of December 26, 2004. To assist in preparing for future disasters, the authors sought to characterize the pattern of hospitalizations from the main impact zone in the Southern Province.Design: Retrospective chart review.Setting: Patients admitted to Teaching Hospital, Karapitiya, the only tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province.Patients, Participants: All hospital admissions on the day of and week following the tsunami, and a random sample (5 percent) of admissions from the month preceding, and the 3 months following the tsunami were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, analyzed, and geomapped.Intervention: N/A.Main Outcome Measure(s): The overall daily number of hospitalizations increased by 50 percent on the day of the tsunami and decreased in the following week.Results: Before the tsunami, injuries typically accounted for 20 percent of hospital admissions. However, injuries were markedly higher (89 percent of the total) on the day of the tsunami and remained elevated (35 percent) during the following week. After the initial peak in injuries (including near drownings), there was no increase in the frequency of infectious, cardiac, or psychiatric admissions.Conclusions: Injuries (including near drownings) were the most common cause of admissions immediately after the tsunami.The distribution of specific diagnoses differed from that seen after other natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes. A central aspect of disaster relief operations and planning includes a thorough understanding of the postdisaster health effects and changes in disease patterns.

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