scholarly journals A new, simple method of describing the COVID-19 trajectory and dynamics in any country based on Johnson Cumulative Distribution Function fitting.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam M Cmiel ◽  
Bogdan Cmiel
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Wave Dynamics ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Basic Parameters ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data

A simple method is described to study and compare COVID-19 infection dynamics between countries, based on curve fitting to publicly shared data of confirmed COVID-19 infections in them. The method was tested using data from 80 countries in 6 regions. We found that Johnson Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF) were extremely well fitted to the data (R2>0.99) and that Johnson CDFs were much better fitted to the data at their tails than either the commonly used Normal or Lognormal CDFs. Fitted Johnson CDFs can be used to obtain basic parameters of the infection wave, such as the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the days of the start, peak and end of the infection wave, as well as the durations of the infection wave of the wave's increase and decrease. These parameters can be easily interpreted biologically and used both for describing the infection wave dynamics and in further statistical analysis. The usefulness of the parameters obtained was analysed with respect to the relation between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the population density, and the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the starting day and the duration of the infection wave in the 80 countries. We found that all the above parameters were significantly dependent on the GDP per capita, but only the percentage of the population infected was significantly dependent on the population density in these countries. If used with caution, this method has a limited ability to predict the future trajectory and parameters of an ongoing infection wave.

scholarly journals A simple method to describe the COVID-19 trajectory and dynamics in any country based on Johnson cumulative density function fitting

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam M. Ćmiel ◽  
Bogdan Ćmiel
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Wave Dynamics ◽  
Shared Data ◽  
Function Fitting ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Basic Parameters ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data

AbstractA simple method is utilised to study and compare COVID-19 infection dynamics between countries based on curve fitting to publicly shared data of confirmed COVID-19 infections. The method was tested using data from 80 countries from 6 continents. We found that Johnson cumulative density functions (CDFs) were extremely well fitted to the data (R2 > 0.99) and that Johnson CDFs were much better fitted to the tails of the data than either the commonly used normal or lognormal CDFs. Fitted Johnson CDFs can be used to obtain basic parameters of the infection wave, such as the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the days of the start, peak and end of the infection wave, and the duration of the wave’s increase and decrease. These parameters can be easily interpreted biologically and used both for describing infection wave dynamics and in further statistical analysis. The usefulness of the parameters obtained was analysed with respect to the relation between the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the population density, the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the starting day and the duration of the infection wave in the 80 countries. We found that all the above parameters were significantly associated with GDP per capita, but only the percentage of the population infected was significantly associated with population density. If used with caution, this method has a limited ability to predict the future trajectory and parameters of an ongoing infection wave.

Fraud abroad

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-275
Author(s):  
Jake David Hoskins ◽  
Ryan Leick
Keyword(s):  
Sharing Economy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Customer Reviews ◽  
Online Customer Reviews ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Developed Nations

Purpose This study aims to investigate a sharing economy context, where vacation rental units that are owned and operated by individuals throughout the world are rented out through a common website: vrbo.com. It is posited that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, a common indicator of the level of economic development of a nation, will impact the likelihood that prospective travelers will choose to book accommodations in the sharing economy channel (vs traditional hotels). The role of online customer reviews in this process is investigated as well, building upon a significant body of extant research which shows their level of customer decision influence. Design/methodology/approach An empirical analysis is conducted using data from the website Vacation Rentals By Owner on 1,940 rental listings across 97 countries. Findings GDP per capita serves as risk deterrent to prospective travelers, making the sharing economy an acceptable alternative to traditional hotels for the average traveler. It is also found that the total number of online customer reviews (OCR volume) is a signal of popularity to prospective travelers, while the average star rating of those online customer reviews (OCR valence) is instead a signal of accommodation quality. Originality/value This study adds to a growing agenda of research investigating the effect of online customer reviews on consumer decisions, with a particularly focus on the burgeoning sharing economy. The findings help to explain when the sharing economy may serve as a stronger disruptive threat to incumbent offerings. It also provides the following key insights for managers: sharing economy rental units in developed nations are more successful in driving booking activity, managers should look to promote volume of online customer reviews and positive online customer reviews are particularly influential for sharing economy rental booking rates in less developed nations.

scholarly journals Regional quality of living in Europe

REGION ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piet Lagas ◽  
Frank Van Dongen ◽  
Frank Van Rijn ◽  
Hans Visser
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
European Regions ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The North ◽  
City Regions ◽  
Quality Of Living ◽  
Per Capita

This article sets out the conceptual framework and results of Regional Quality of Living indicators that were developed in order to benchmark European NUTS2 regions. Nine non-business-related indicators are constructed to support the goal of policy makers to improve the attractiveness of regions and cities for people or companies to settle in, and by doing so create economic growth. Each of the constructed indicators represents a pillar of the Quality of Living. The highest indicator scores are found for regions within Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands. Some countries show a wide divergence between regional scores. The southern regions of Italy and Spain, for example, have significantly lower scores than those in the north. In addition, capital city regions have better RQI scores. A positive correlation was found between the average RQI scores and both GDP per capita and weighted population density. Compared to GDP per capita, weighted population density has a modest influence on the RQI score. The European regions are divided into 11 clusters, based upon GDP per capita and weighted population density in order to benchmark a region with its peers.

scholarly journals SARS-COV-2 Vaccines: What Indicators are Associated with the Worldwide Distribution of the First Doses

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 004695802110601
Author(s):  
Marcos Felipe Falcão Sobral ◽  
Brigitte Renata Bezerra de Oliveira ◽  
Ana Iza Gomes da Penha Sobral ◽  
Marcelo Luiz Monteiro Marinho ◽  
Gisleia Benini Duarte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Worldwide Distribution ◽  
Per Capita

The present study aimed to identify the factors associated with the distribution of the first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. In this study, we used 9 variables: human development index (HDI), gross domestic product (GDP per capita), Gini index, population density, extreme poverty, life expectancy, COVID cases, COVID deaths, and reproduction rate. The time period was until February 1, 2021. The variable of interest was the sum of the days after the vaccine arrived in the countries. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated, and t-test was performed between the groups that received and did not receive the immunizer, and finally, a stepwise linear regression model was used. 58 (30.4%) of the 191 countries received the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. The countries that received the most doses were the United States, China, the United Kingdom, and Israel. Vaccine access in days showed a positive Pearson correlation HDI, GDP, life expectancy, COVID-19 cases, deaths, and reproduction rate. Human development level, COVID-19 deaths, GDP per capita, and population density are able to explain almost 50% of the speed of access to immunizers. Countries with higher HDI and per capita income obtained priority access.

Brazilian Municipal Expenditure and Scale Economies: Evidence from São Paulo

2021 ◽  
pp. 166-187
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Scale Economies ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Government Organizations ◽  
Capita Expenditure ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data

Advocates of municipal mergers usually claim that considerable economies of scale flow from council consolidations, which result in larger local government organizations. We examined whether scale economies are present in municipal outlays by investigating the expenditure of 644 São Paulo municipal areas using data over the period 2005 to 2017. We find evidence that considerable scale economies characterize municipal expenditure in São Paulo. However, given that population size and population density are positively correlated, it is critical to determine whether or not the influence of population on municipal expenditure arises because of disparities in density. We find that when São Paulo municipalities are decomposed into sub-categories based on different population densities, evidence in favour of scale economies persists. Thus, municipal mergers in the state of São Paulo may result in lower per capita expenditure.

scholarly journals PROSPERITY INDEX AS A MEASURE OF WELLBEING IN EUROPEAN UNION AND WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES

TEME ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 1253
Author(s):  
Mirjana Gligorić ◽  
Biljana Jovanović Gavrilović ◽  
Ljubodrag Savić
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Personal Freedom ◽  
Composite Indices ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Key Dimensions ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One ◽  
Prosperity Index

Composite indices have recently become a very popular measure for tracking the progress of national economies. One of them is Legatum Prosperity Index (LPI), a relatively new and comprehensive indicator, which describes in a unique way the level and the dynamics of prosperity in the countries across the world. In this paper, prosperity of European Union and Western Balkan states during the last ten years was analyzed and its drivers investigated, using data for LPI. Also, analysis was performed of the relationships of LPI with GDP per capita and Human Development Index, as well as of the deviation of LPI level from the one that could be expected based on GDP per capita level for each observed country. In addition, the paper examines convergence/divergence between developing European countries and old EU members according to the level of LPI and the key dimensions and components of this indicator. Results indicate that new member states have the most room for improvement in the Institutional dimension, or more precisely in the Personal Freedom component, whereas Western Balkan countries could speed up their prosperity by investing more into Environment, as well as into Education, Health, and Personal Freedom.

scholarly journals Developing a Model for Forecasting Road Traffic Accident (RTA) Fatalities in Yemen

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 12-18
Author(s):  
Fareed M. A. Karim ◽  
Ali Abdo Saleh ◽  
Aref Taijoobux ◽  
Marko Ševrović
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Population Number ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Simple Regression Model ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Using Data

Abstract The aim of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting RTA fatalities in Yemen. The yearly fatalities was modeled as the dependent variable, while the number of independent variables included the population, number of vehicles, GNP, GDP and Real GDP per capita. It was determined that all these variables are highly correlated with the correlation coefficient (r ≈ 0.9); in order to avoid multicollinearity in the model, a single variable with the highest r value was selected (real GDP per capita). A simple regression model was developed; the model was very good (R2=0.916); however, the residuals were serially correlated. The Prais-Winsten procedure was used to overcome this violation of the regression assumption. The data for a 20-year period from 1991-2010 were analyzed to build the model; the model was validated by using data for the years 2011-2013; the historical fit for the period 1991 - 2011 was very good. Also, the validation for 2011-2013 proved accurate.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and socioeconomic development in Africa: The first 6 months (February 2020-August 2020)

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
M. Michel Garenne
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
African Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

The study covers the first 6 months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics in 56 African countries (February 2020-August 2020). It links epidemiological parameters (incidence, case fatality) with demographic parameters (population density, urbanization, population concentration, fertility, mortality, and age structure), with economic parameters (gross domestic product [GDP] per capita, air transport), and with public health parameters (medical density). Epidemiological data are cases and deaths reported to the World Health Organization, and other variables come from databases of the United Nations agencies. Results show that COVID-19 spread fairly rapidly in Africa, although slower than in the rest of the world: In 3 months, all countries were affected, and in 6 months, approximately 1.1 million people (0.1% of the population) were diagnosed positive for COVID-19. The dynamics of the epidemic were fairly regular between April and July, with a net reproduction rate R0 = 1.35, but tended to slow down afterward, when R0 fell below 1.0 at the end of July. Differences in incidence were very large between countries and were correlated primarily with population density and urbanization, and to a lesser extent, with GDP per capita and population age structure. Differences in case fatality were smaller and correlated primarily with mortality level. Overall, Africa appeared very heterogeneous, with some countries severely affected while others very little.

scholarly journals Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility: A Cross Districts Analysis of Punjab, Pakistanq

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-48
Author(s):  
Muhammad Qasim Attari ◽  
Zahid Pervaiz ◽  
Amatul R. Chaudhary
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Female Literacy

This study has investigated various socio-economic and demographic determinants of fertility across the districts of Punjab, Pakistan. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population density, female literacy rate, employment rate and child mortality have been identified as determinants of fertility by using cross sectional regression. The results of this study indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and population density have negative and insignificant whereas female literacy rate has negative and significant association with fertility. On the other hand employment rate and child mortality have positive association with fertility. According to results of this study, increase in female education and reduction in child mortality can be helpful to reduce fertility in the districts of Punjab.

scholarly journals Understanding Hazardous Waste Exports for Disposal in Europe: A Contribution to Sustainable Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 8905
Author(s):  
Carmen Callao ◽  
M. Pilar Latorre ◽  
Margarita Martinez-Núñez
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Hazardous Waste ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Analysis Methodology ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Treaty Of Amsterdam ◽  
The Eu

The concept of sustainable development was introduced in Europe by the Treaty of Amsterdam (1997) and was extended to waste management in the Waste Framework Directive. In order to achieve sustainable development, hazardous waste (HW) must be managed safely and in accordance with regulations. This also applies to worldwide HW transport, especially when HW is shipped for disposal. The United Nations, through the Basel Convention, aims to prevent the export of HW from developed countries to developing countries for disposal. In Europe, HW shipments are regulated by Regulation (EC) No. 1013/2006 of the European Parliament and by the Council of 14 June 2006 on shipments of waste. Additionally, all HW shipments must be in accordance with two principles contained in the Waste Framework Directive: proximity and self-sufficiency. Using data from 2014 and network analysis methodology, this paper fills the gaps in the scientific literature by looking at how shipments of HW travel for disposal in Europe, how the regulations affect these shipments and how GDP per capita influences the shipment of waste. The results show that countries with a high GDP per capita play an important role in the network (having the highest in-degree) and that the absence of landfill taxes for HW does not influence HW shipments for disposal. Therefore, countries in the EU act in accordance with the proximity and self-sufficiency principles.

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