scholarly journals REACT-1 round 7 updated report: regional heterogeneity in changes in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second national COVID-19 lockdown in England

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Regional Heterogeneity ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
West Midlands ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Previous Round ◽  
Report Data ◽  
The City ◽  
Weighted Prevalence

Background England exited a four-week second national lockdown on 2nd December 2020 initiated in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior results showed that prevalence dropped during the first half of lockdown, with greater reductions in higher-prevalence northern regions. Methods REACT-1 is a series of community surveys of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR swab-positivity in England, designed to monitor the spread of the epidemic and thus increase situational awareness. Round 7 of REACT-1 commenced swab-collection on 13th November 2020. A prior interim report included data from 13th to 24th November 2020 for 105,122 participants. Here, we report data for the entire round with swab results obtained up to 3rd December 2020. Results Between 13th November and 3rd December (round 7) there were 1,299 positive swabs out of 168,181 giving a weighted prevalence of 0.94% (95% CI 0.87%, 1.01%) or 94 per 10,000 people infected in the community in England. This compares with a prevalence of 1.30% (1.21%, 1.39%) from 16th October to 2nd November 2020 (round 6), a decline of 28%. Prevalence during the latter half of round 7 was 0.91% (95% CI, 0.81%, 1.03%) compared with 0.96% (0.87%, 1.05%) in the first half. The national R number in round 7 was estimated at 0.96 (0.88, 1.03) with a decline in prevalence observed during the first half of this period no longer apparent during the second half at the end of lockdown. During round 7 there was a marked fall in prevalence in West Midlands, a levelling off in some regions and a rise in London. R numbers at regional level ranged from 0.60 (0.41, 0.80) in West Midlands up to 1.27 (1.04, 1.54) in London, where prevalence was highest in the east and south-east of the city. Nationally, between 13th November and 3rd December, the highest prevalence was in school-aged children especially at ages 13-17 years at 2.04% (1.69%, 2.46%), or approximately 1 in 50. Conclusion Between the previous round and round 7 (during lockdown), there was a fall in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity nationally, but it did not fall uniformly over time or by geography. Continued vigilance is required to reduce rates of infection until effective immunity at the population level can be achieved through the vaccination programme.

scholarly journals Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to guide vaccination strategy in a city

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah C. Brüningk ◽  
Juliane Klatt ◽  
Madlen Stange ◽  
Alfredo Mari ◽  
Myrta Brunner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Modelling Analysis ◽  
City Population ◽  
Senior Population ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Socioeconomic Data ◽  
The City

Transmission chains within cities provide an important contribution to case burden and economic impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and should be a major focus for preventive measures to achieve containment. Here, at very high spatio-temporal resolution, we analysed determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a medium-sized European city. We combined detailed epidemiological, mobility, and socioeconomic data-sets with whole genome sequencing during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave. Both phylogenetic clustering and compartmental modelling analysis were performed based on the dominating viral variant (B.1-C15324T; 60% of all cases). Here we show that transmissions on the city population level are driven by the socioeconomically weaker and highly mobile groups. Simulated vaccination scenarios showed that vaccination of a third of the population at 90% efficacy prioritising the latter groups would induce a stronger preventive effect compared to vaccinating exclusively senior population groups first. Our analysis accounts for both social interaction and mobility on the basis of molecularly related cases, thereby providing high confidence estimates of the underlying epidemic dynamics that may readily be translatable to other municipal areas.

Changes in Hospitalization for Ischemic Heart Disease After the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake: 10 Years of Data in a Population of 300,000

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaisen Huang ◽  
Dejia Huang ◽  
Dingxiu He ◽  
Joris van Loenhout ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Ischemic Heart Disease ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Ischemic Heart ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sichuan Earthquake ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Incidence Of Hospitalization ◽  
The City

AbstractObjectiveThe effects of earthquakes on ischemic heart disease (IHD) have often been reported. At a population level, this study examined short-term (60-day) and long-term (5-year) hospitalization events for IHD after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake.MethodsWe examined the 10-year medical hospitalization records on IHD in the city of Deyang provided by the Urban Employee Basic Health Insurance program.ResultsEvaluation of 19,083 hospitalizations showed a significantly lower proportional number and cost of hospitalizations in the 60 days after the earthquake (P<0.001). Hospitalizations were 27.81% lower than would have been expected in a normal year; costs were 32.53% lower. However, in the 5 years after the earthquake, the age-adjusted annual incidence of hospitalization increased significantly (P<0.001). In the fifth year after the earthquake, it was significantly higher in the extremely hard-hit area than in the hard-hit area (P<0.01).ConclusionAfter the 2008 earthquake, short- and long-term patterns of hospitalization for IHD changed greatly, but in different ways. Our findings suggest that medical resources for IHD should be distributed dynamically over time after an earthquake. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:203–210)

scholarly journals Differences in hospital admissions practices following self-harm and their influence on population-level comparisons of self-harm rates in South London: an observational study

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. e032906
Author(s):  
C Polling ◽  
Ioannis Bakolis ◽  
Matthew Hotopf ◽  
Stephani L. Hatch
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Population Level ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Spatial Patterning ◽  
Patient Demographics ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Self Harm ◽  
Hospital Practices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

ObjectivesTo compare the proportions of emergency department (ED) attendances following self-harm that result in admission between hospitals, examine whether differences are explained by severity of harm and examine the impact on spatial variation in self-harm rates of using ED attendance data versus admissions data.SettingA dataset of ED attendances and admissions with self-harm to four hospitals in South East London, 2009–2016 was created using linked electronic patient record data and administrative Hospital Episode Statistics.DesignProportions admitted following ED attendance and length of stay were compared. Variation and spatial patterning of age and sex standardised, spatially smoothed, self-harm rates by small area using attendance and admission data were compared and the association with distance travelled to hospital tested.ResultsThere were 20 750 ED attendances with self-harm, 7614 (37%) resulted in admission. Proportion admitted varied substantially between hospitals with a risk ratio of 2.45 (95% CI 2.30 to 2.61) comparing most and least likely to admit. This was not altered by adjustment for patient demographics, deprivation and type of self-harm. Hospitals which admitted more had a higher proportion of admissions lasting less than 24 hours (54% of all admissions at highest admitting hospital vs 35% at lowest). A previously demonstrated pattern of lower rates of self-harm admission closer to the city centre was reduced when ED attendance rates were used to represent self-harm. This was not altered when distance travelled to hospital was adjusted for.ConclusionsHospitals vary substantially in likelihood of admission after ED presentation with self-harm and this is likely due to the differences in hospital practices rather than in the patient population or severity of self-harm seen. Public health policy that directs resources based on self-harm admissions data could exacerbate existing health inequalities in inner-city areas where these data may underestimate rates relative to other areas.

Evaluation of adhd symptoms in a general sample of schoolers from 6 to 18 years old and their parents: the chip-ard study

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (S2) ◽  
pp. 270-270
Author(s):  
H.M.O. Caci
Keyword(s):  
Rating Scales ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
Genetic Transmission ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Hyperactivity Disorder ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Original Objective ◽  
Teachers And Parents ◽  
The City ◽  
Optical Recognition

IntroductionAttention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) affects up to 5% of the school-aged children and adolescents, and to up 3% of the adults. The condition is dramatically more frequent in parents of affected children (about 30% of prevalence), therefore crediting the genetic transmission of the disorder.ObjectivesOur study was designed to increase the awareness of the disorder among teachers and parents, and to collect data for validating available rating scales for the French general population.AimsTo include up to 200 children for each year of age ranging for 5 to 18, and to collect data about their behaviour at school (rated by teachers) and at home (rated by parents). Additionally, questionnaires were filled out by the parents to rate their own symptoms. Comorbidity and related disorders were also a concern.MethodsA sample of schools was randomly selected in the city of Nice (France) and up to 4 children were randomly selected in each class. The children were included only after they and their parents gave their informed consent. Teachers rated the child behaviour on a secured website. Paper questionnaires were scanned for optical recognition.ResultsIn three months, 715 children were included and 847 parents returned their questionnaires. Preliminary analyses show that ADHD rating scales can be accurately scored by teachers and parents. References intervals need to be computed with regard of age and gender, for both children and adults.ConclusionsThe ChiP-ARD study will be reconducted in 2010-2011 to reach our original objective of 2600 children.

scholarly journals Evolution of conditional cooperation in public good games

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 191567
Author(s):  
Balaraju Battu ◽  
Narayanan Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Public Good ◽  
Social Behaviour ◽  
Role Models ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Public Goods Game ◽  
Conditional Cooperation ◽  
The Social ◽  
Previous Round ◽  
Good Behaviour ◽  
Public Good Games

Cooperation declines in repeated public good games because individuals behave as conditional cooperators. This is because individuals imitate the social behaviour of successful individuals when their payoff information is available. However, in human societies, individuals cooperate in many situations involving social dilemmas. We hypothesize that humans are sensitive to both success (payoffs) and how that success was obtained, by cheating (not socially sanctioned) or good behaviour (socially sanctioned and adds to prestige or reputation), when information is available about payoffs and prestige. We propose and model a repeated public good game with heterogeneous conditional cooperators where an agent's donation in a public goods game depends on comparing the number of donations in the population in the previous round and with the agent's arbitrary chosen conditional cooperative criterion. Such individuals imitate the social behaviour of role models based on their payoffs and prestige. The dependence is modelled by two population-level parameters: affinity towards payoff and affinity towards prestige . These affinities influence the degree to which agents value the payoff and prestige of role models. Agents update their conditional strategies by considering both parameters. The simulations in this study show that high levels of cooperation are established in a population consisting of heterogeneous conditional cooperators for a certain range of affinity parameters in repeated public good games. The results show that social value (prestige) is important in establishing cooperation.

scholarly journals Geographic Information System (GIS) as a Tool in the Epidemiological Assessment of Wetwood Disease on Elm Trees in Tabriz City, Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Alizadeh ◽  
M. Moharrami ◽  
A.A. Rasouli
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Geographic Information System ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Geographic Information ◽  
Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Bacterial Diseases ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Northwest Of Iran ◽  
The City

AbstractPlants disease epidemiology provides us with some information about the spread of diseases in different regions with various climates and helps us conduct suitable managing operations and predictions about the spread of disease to other areas. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been widely used as an important tool in epidemiological studies. Wetwood disease is one of the most important bacterial diseases on elm trees found in the Northwest of Iran. The disease has spread in different regions of Tabriz (located in the Northwest of Iran), which has become terribly epidemic. Geographic Information System as an appropriate tool in epidemiological examination of plant disease is useful in various ways. In this study, the epidemiology of bacterial wetwood disease on elm trees in Tabriz was investigated using GIS databases. The results indicate that the disease has become epidemic in different areas of Tabriz. According to the results, although the disease was not found in some regions, its severity was very high in some other areas. Based on the distribution map, the wetwood disease most highly exists in the central regions and some parts of the northern regions of the city, but eastern regions are least affected.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk terhadap Jumlah Kemiskinan Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linear di Kota Palembang

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazori Suhandi ◽  
Efri Ayu Kartika Putri ◽  
Sari Agnisa
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Variable Number ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Accurate Calculation ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The City

<p class="SammaryHeader" align="center"><strong><em>Abstract</em></strong></p><p><em>This paper aims to convey the development of the effect of the population on the number of poverty in the city of Palembang from 2010 to 2015.There is no accurate calculation made to determine the number of poor people in Indonesia, always with controversy because each calculation uses different criteria.This differentiation is based on its causing factors to allow specific alleviation policy implication. The cause of such poverty, in general, is that the poor people have no capacity and capability to access economic sources. This analysis is done using simple linear regression method, population level (X) and poverty (Y) in Palembang city year 2010 - 2015. From the data, it can be concluded that the variable of Population (X) has negative influence to the variable Number of Poverty (Y) in Palembang City. Simultaneously, the number of population has an effect on the amount of poverty in the city of Palembang by 0,398%, while -14,045% and the rest influenced by the variable outside of studied.</em></p><p><strong><em>Keyword : </em></strong><em>Poor people, Regression, Causes Of Poverty</em></p><p align="center"><strong><em>Abstrak</em></strong></p><p><em>Jurnal ini bertujuan menggambarkan pengembangan pengaruh populasi pada jumlah kemiskinan di kota Palembang dari tahun 2010 sampai tahun 2015. Tidak ada penghitungan yang akurat yang telah dibuat untuk menentukan jumlah orang miskin di Indonesia, selalu muncul kontroversi karena setiap penghitungan memiliki kriteria tersendiri. Perbedaan ini didasarkan pada faktor penyebab yang berdampak pada implikasi politik. Penyebab kemisikinan, umumnya adalah bahwa orang-orang miskin tidak memiliki kapasitas untuk memasuki sumber ekonomi. Analisis dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode regresi linier sederhana, tingkat populasi (X) dan kemiskinan (Y) di kota Palembang tahun 2010-2015. Dari data disimpulkan bahwa variabel jumlah populasi (X) memiliki pengaruh negatif pada variabel jumlah kemiskinan di kota Palembang. Secara simultan, jumlah populasi memiliki pengaruh pada jumlah kemiskinan di kota Palembang yaitu 0,398%, sedangkan -14,045% dan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel diluar studi ini.</em></p><strong><em>Kata kunci :</em></strong><em> Orang miskin, Regresi, Penyebab Kemiskinan</em>

scholarly journals Metode Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Tingkat Kriminalitas Pencurian Sepeda Motor

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-20
Author(s):  
Novianti Novianti ◽  
Muhammad Amin ◽  
Wan Mariatul Kifti
Keyword(s):  
Crime Rate ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Minimum Error ◽  
Prediction Result ◽  
Report Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
The City

Abstract : This study aims to determine thecrime rate in motorbike theft cases using the programmeing langiage PHP and MySQL as a database and the application of the Exponential Smoothing method to determine the crime rate of motorcycle theft that occurs in the city of Tanjung Balai for the next period. The data used in this study is motorcycle theft report data from 2018 to 2019 wich was obtained from the Tanjung Balai Police. The benefits of this research can be used by the Tanjung Balai police to determine the extent of the motorcycle theft crime that will occur in a shorter, easier and more accurate manner so that it can take optimal prevention. With the Exponential Smoothing method the alpha value will be searched randomly to find an alpha value that was a minimum error value calculated using Means Absolute Percetage Error (MAPE). Then the prediction results that have an alphan with a minimum error are the best of recommended as a prediction result for the next period. Based on this research, the prediction results obtained from the prediction of the number of motorcycle theft cases the occurred in the city of Tanjung Balai in 2020 were 12 units with an MAPE error value of 0,153%. Keyword : Exponential Smoothing, Theft, Motorcycle, Forecasting  Abstrak : Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan tingkat kriminalitas kasus pencurian sepeda motor dengan menggunakan bahasa pemrograman PHP dan MySQL sebagai basis data serta penerapan metode Exponential Smoothing untuk menentukan tingkat kriminalitas pencurian sepeda motor yang terjadi di kota Tanjung Balai untuk periode berikutnya. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data laporan pencurian sepeda motor dari tahun 2018 sampai dengan tahun 2019 yang diperoleh dari POLRES Tanjung Balai. Manfaat dari penelitian ini dapat digunakan oleh kepolisian Tanjung Balai untuk menentukan seberapa besar tindak kriminalitas pencurian sepeda motor yang akan terjadi secara lebih singkat, mudah dan akurat sehingga dapat melakukan pencegahan yang optimal. Dengan metode Exponential Smoothing  akan dicari nilai alpha secara acak sampai menemukan nilai alpha yang memiliki nilai error yang minimum yang dihitung menggunakan Means Absolute Percetage Error (MAPE). Maka hasil prediksi yang memiliki alpha dengan error minimumlah yang paling baik atau direkomendasikan sebagai hasil prediksi untuk periode selanjutnya. Berdasarkan penelitian ini diperoleh hasil prediksi peramalan jumlah kasus pencurian sepeda motor yang terjadi di kota Tanjung Balai tahun 2020 adalah 12 unit dengan nilai error MAPE sebesar 0,153%. Kata Kunci : Exponential Smoothing, Pencurian, Sepeda Motor, Forecasting

scholarly journals On the observed response of ozone to NO<sub>x</sub> and VOC reactivity reductions in San Joaquin Valley California 1995–present

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 9771-9811 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. E. Pusede ◽  
R. C. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Nitrogen Oxide ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
San Joaquin Valley ◽  
Local Production ◽  
City Center ◽  
Large Component ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
The City ◽  
Organic Reactivity

Abstract. We present a statistical approach to describe the effects of nitrogen oxide (NOx) and organic reactivity reductions on the frequency of high ozone days. We use sixteen years of observations of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and temperature at sites upwind, within, and downwind of three cities in California's San Joaquin Valley to assess the probability of exceeding of the California 8-h average ozone standard of 70.4 ppb at each location. We demonstrate that the comprehensive data records in the region and the steep decreases in emissions over the last decade are sufficient to constrain the relative import of NOx and organic reactivity reductions on the frequency of violations. We show that high ozone has a large component that is due to local production, as the probability of exceeding the state standard is lowest for each city at the upwind site, increases across the city center, is highest at downwind locations, and then decreases at the receptor city to the south. We see that reductions in organic reactivity have been very effective in the central and northern regions of the San Joaquin but not in the southern portion of the Valley. We find evidence for two distinct categories of reactivity sources: one source that has decreased and dominates at moderate temperatures, and a second source that dominates at high temperatures in the southern San Joaquin, which has not changed over the last twelve years. We show that NOx reductions are already effective or are poised to become so in the southern and central Valley, where violations are most frequent, as conditions in these regions have or are transitioning to NOx-limited chemistry when temperatures are hottest and high ozone most probable.

scholarly journals URBAN’S RIVER FLOOD ANALYSING USING SENTINEL-1 DATA CASE STUDY: (GORGANROOD, AQ’QALA)

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W18 ◽  
pp. 415-419
Author(s):  
K. Ganji ◽  
S. Gharachelou ◽  
A. Ahmadi
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Synthetic Aperture ◽  
Flood Mapping ◽  
Sar Images ◽  
River Flood ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The City ◽  
Flooded Areas

Abstract. Flood is one of the greatest disasters in the world, and the cause of a lot of damages to buildings and Agricultural products every year. Gorganrood river crossing the city of Aq’qala and it is always under flood risk. In the spring, due to the high intensity rainfall and melting of the snow, upstream areas bring much water into the Gorganrood river. On 23rd March, 2019 occurred a terrible flood in Aq’qala passing discharge 650 (m^3/s), it would occur every 100 years in this river. This river in normal time is passing discharge approximately 120 (m^3/s). A large of an urban and non-urban area was affected by this flood and mapping and analyzing of this flood have a key role for river and disaster management. Remote sensing is one of the best ways to flood mapping, especially in flood time weather is cloudy, Therefore, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images had high potentiality for flood analysis. In this study the Sentinel-1 data used for flood studying due to free available and shorter revisit time. After the processing has done, by selecting the VV band the flooded areas detected. After that overlapped the images and combination of RGB bands and the change the value of pixels, at last, we will be able to obtain the flood mapping images for Gorganrood river. In the primary days of the flooding, almost all the northern regions of the city were flooded, and during a week about 96.8 (km^2) city flooded.

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